How Many Wins?
by abender20 on Jun 24, 2009 8:52 AM PDT
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It's too early in the offseason to have a serious go at looking at schedules in the attempt to figure out how many games the Seahawks can expect to realistically win. Sure, part of that is the general uncertainty with respect to NFL teams, but the Hawks have way too many moving parts to know what to expect in the upcoming season. It's pretty easy to envision scenarios in which the Hawks win as few as five games or as many as 10-11 (that's where the poll comes in). A piece at the SF Examiner got me thinking about parity; what is a realistic expectation for how many wins it will take to take the NFC West?
Completely ignoring games outside of the division, it's fair to expect some better competition within the West. The Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks were all in the bottom 8 in Weighted Team DVOA last year. That's bad. The Cardinals? Only the 20th best DVOA. That's a bad division. With even some minor progress by the 49ers and Rams, win expectations decrease for both the Seahawks and the Cardinals. For the sake of argument, let's say it takes 9.5 wins to make the playoffs out of the West.
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I think expected wins from rough calculations are 8.4.
So I wanted to vote 8-9, but it wasn’t an option.
But I guess knocking it down a full win due to homerism and Hasselbeck/Jones uncertainty (maybe even more than that) and 7-8 sounds about right to me.
by LantermanC on Jun 24, 2009 9:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking exactly the same
It was between 8 and 9 for me. Completely defying logic and recent history, I’m predicting 2009 will be a fairly injury-free year and thus we’ll likely win 9 (maybe 10) games.
The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.
by Nick Andron on Jun 24, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So the chances of the Seahawks winning less than 3
or more than 14 are so low they don’t get an option?
You’re going to look mighty silly when we go 19-0.
by LantermanC on Jun 24, 2009 9:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's pretty difficult to lose more than 13 games in an NFL season.
by abender20 on Jun 24, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't call it difficult.
Rare maybe, but turn FieldGulls from a blog into a NFL team and we’ll see just how difficult going 0-16 can be.
by LantermanC on Jun 24, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We won 4 games last year with ...
a backup QB (3 games), decimated WRs, no real O-line and an utterly HORRID pass defense.
I’m agreeing with abender on this one …
The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.
by Nick Andron on Jun 24, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just nit-picking at the word difficult.
Since it’s not particularly hard to accomplish (hard as in takes a lot of effort to accomplish).
by LantermanC on Jun 24, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll nitpick you.
The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.
by Nick Andron on Jun 24, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but we received a few gifts too...
Like getting to play the 2-win Rams twice…
Getting a snowball win over the armless Favres…
And getting the 49ers first Singletary game.
I’m not saying that I think the Hawks will be a 4 win team this year though.
by PerryCollective on Jun 24, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why was the Jets win a gift?
We destroyed their running game and did a fair job stopping their passing game. They’re from NY, they should play in the snow better than the Hawks!
The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.
by Nick Andron on Jun 24, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think 10 wins is reasonable if...
Hasselbeck and Kerney are 100%. I think there’s enough pieces around those two that when healthy they improve their respective units more then anyone else on the field.
by Hancock.Brett on Jun 24, 2009 9:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think our defense hinges squarely on QB pressure
Our secondary hasn’t improved enough to make up for a poor pass rush.
The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.
by Nick Andron on Jun 24, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think our defense hinges
on the health of Matthew Hasselbeck!
(making a joke, in case no one gets it)
by B.B.Finnegan on Jun 24, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not a joke
The longer we’re on the field on offense, the better our defense will do.
Blazers fan in beantown.
by cmcdougall on Jun 24, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In theory, but...
Didn’t our 92 defense (the one where Tez was DPotY) still kick a lot of ass while our offense was like historically bad and led the NFL in turnovers or something?
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 24, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So we know there is at least one insane person in our midst.
by abender20 on Jun 24, 2009 9:51 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Personally
I think 10 wins is extremely optimistic even with a healthy Hasslebeck.
New coachs (head, offensive, defensive), lots of new players (FAs and rookies), new offensive scheme, new defensive scheme …
Getting it all to gel (and everyone staying healthy) in one season is a mighty stretch.
The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.
by Nick Andron on Jun 24, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mora managed 11 wins in his first year with the Falcons.
New coaches, players, schemes. But yeah, it’s all going to come down to health. If everyone stays healthy I can see 11-12 wins. If not, could drop as low as another 4 win season, but I can’t imagine us having that many injuries all over again.
by B.B.Finnegan on Jun 24, 2009 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I chalk it up to TNT members who semi-regularly lurk here.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 24, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I expect a minimum of 19 wins.
Andy Reid is the only coach in NFL history that uses the pass to set up the pass.
by SSreporters on Jun 24, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It looks like voters add up to around 8.7.
If I estimated based on how the graphs look.
by cashless on Jun 24, 2009 10:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually
A quick – if perhaps inaccurate – calculation says the average is 9.2.
Which I’d say is a bit high. I think an 8-8 season is well in the cards.
by Vasilii on Jun 24, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty much at 8-9 wins being likely.
I hope more, of course, and I certainly think more are possible.
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer
by Misfit74 on Jun 24, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just coming on to say it looked like it was over 9.
Before when I said that, I think the 7-8 group was more than half of the 9-10 group…and the 5-6 was pretty close to the 11-12. Now it’s definitely 9.2 or higher.
by cashless on Jun 24, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More people think 13-14 than 5-6?
That seems a little overly optimistic, but I’d love to be wrong!
by PerryCollective on Jun 24, 2009 2:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted 9-10
I feel like in a sub par division we will take 9 games and go into the playoffs where hopefully we will not have too many injuries so we can play our best football of the year
by TheSteelersRuinedMyBirthday on Jun 24, 2009 3:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
7-9 for me
Just don’t see the evidence we have the o-line for anything better.
by JamesMurphy on Jun 24, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Is anyone basing their predictions on anything other than how healthy they expect Hasselbeck to be?
To me whether we’re a 6 win team or a 10 win team is pretty much solely dependent on which version of Matt we get. For the record I picked 7-8 wins.
by Nate Dogg on Jun 24, 2009 4:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
9-11 wins is what I see.
The Seahawks still have some very good (YOUNG) parts. The one thing I keep reading is “age”, I’m not really buying this. 11 players will be over 30 when the season starts (Hasselbeck, Russell, Kerney, Jones, Mare, Housh, Branch, Wahle, Grant, Lewis and Lucas), and of those guys the Hawks only “really” need Matt, Patrick, Walt, and Housh to stay healthy for at least 14 of 16 games (one of these four will miss at least a game) . Then you have Mare, who may not even be the kicker after training camp, Branch has not been health since he got here (that is why the team drafted Butler), Unger is going to take Wahles spot in traing camp (I would bet money), Grant is very good, but don’t sleep on Greene or Adams this year. I like Lucas, but I could see Wilson, Jennings and Hobbs, steping up this year just out of pride after Kenny was brought in.
With all that said the Hawks have some good youth, and with a fresh DC and Head coach and a little health I could see this team winning 9-11 games. This is just what I think, but this team has talent, they just need some health, and I think this year they will get it (knock on wood).
by JustinWF on Jun 24, 2009 6:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I disagree.
Those are like, some of our best players of both sides of the ball.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 24, 2009 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not about how many players are older....
It’s about which ones are. Jones is 35, Matt is 33, Kerney is 32. Age isn’t everything, of course. Of more concern is the fact that all three are coming off of injury-shortened seasons (Jones played 12 games, the others 7 each).
by thebyron on Jun 24, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Injury-shortened seasons, yes...
but of equal or greater importance is that all three play vital roles for our team.
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer
by Misfit74 on Jun 24, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep,
That is why I said the Hawks only “REALLY” need Matt, Patrick, Walt and Housh of all the over 30 crew to stay healthy. Age is not really a huge deal with Matt and Walt, but health will be huge. As for the rest they just need to stay healthy, but only those four are needed to keep the glue together. The rest of the team is pretty young and they will be the core for seasons to come.
by JustinWF on Jun 26, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
7-8 seems reasonable.
Depending on which version of the Cardinals show up next season, in which case 9-10 wins seems reasonable.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 24, 2009 6:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Can you imagine how a 'Niners' poll like this would read?
A+…oh, I mean “there is no question we should comfortably win 12 games if Shaun Hill performs like I know he can…”
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer
by Misfit74 on Jun 24, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't be surprising
Considering Singletary thinks their team is “no doubt going to the playoffs.”
by aerozeppelin on Jun 24, 2009 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget that every underperforming lazy player (Y Helo Thar Vernon Davis) is going to realize their potential
because MIKE SINGLETARY is going to whip that ass into shape. And that they have a great situation at QB – How many teams have the luxury of picking between 2 above-average starting caliber QBs?
Don’t forget that Patrick Willis is also going to turn that defense into the 2001 Ravens.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 27, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
JM, I noticed you voted 5-6 wins.
I don’t think it’s far off, but are you being cautious with the win totals after your last year’s prediction?
by LantermanC on Jun 25, 2009 10:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
How are you able to notice that?
by jacobstevens on Jun 25, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Click his name
It’s under “Recent Activity”
by thebyron on Jun 26, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey
He got Arizona and San Fran’s records right on the money.
This is some sort of reverse jinx where we go 10-6 or 11-5.
Andy Reid is the only coach in NFL history that uses the pass to set up the pass.
by SSreporters on Jun 26, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unpredictable.
NFL football is the most random and chaotic of the major sports as far as predicting wins is concerned.
The NFC West has consistently been called the weakest NFC division over the last few years but has produced two of the last four NFC Champions.
Who saw the Atlanta Falcons going from 4 wins in 2007 to 11 wins in 2008?
Who saw the Miami Dolphins going from 1 win in 2007 to 11 wins in 2008?
I am not saying that there is no such thing as reasonable win expectation for a team, just that the variance is much higher than in other sports. Football has the type of erratic scoring that baseball has but less than 10% as many games. I can easily see this Seahawks club playing at an elite level and even earning a first round bye. The team is loaded on paper. I can also easily see Hasselbeck injured before the start of the season and no offense all year resulting in 6 or fewer wins.
Ya just hope its your year.
by michaelfox99 on Jun 25, 2009 11:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's almost as if I wrote:
It’s too early in the offseason to have a serious go at looking at schedules in the attempt to figure out how many games the Seahawks can expect to realistically win. Sure, part of that is the general uncertainty with respect to NFL teams, but the Hawks have way too many moving parts to know what to expect in the upcoming season. It’s pretty easy to envision scenarios in which the Hawks win as few as five games or as many as 10-11 (that’s where the poll comes in).
by abender20 on Jun 25, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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