Dallas dropped from an 83% chance of winning to a 1% chance of winning.

9 months ago John Morgan 54 comments 6 recs |

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That moment still gives me shivers.

by forte40 on Jun 5, 2009 2:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Could't have happened to two better teams.

A glorious moment in Seahawks history, magnified by the fact it was vs. the Dallas hype-train.

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jun 5, 2009 2:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What makes this moment even better

Is Shrug’s screengrab of SI’s gun jumping.

Seattle Seahawks: We've got Brian Russell and TWO kickers!

by SSreporters on Jun 5, 2009 3:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Which looks like this

Seattle Seahawks: We've got Brian Russell and TWO kickers!

by SSreporters on Jun 5, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

only thing better....

ok there was nothing better. NFCCG was a dominating game that after the first drive seemed like we were destined to win. This game was the definition of a shock.

by Hancock.Brett on Jun 5, 2009 3:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It's sad to think

That we were one halfway decent Shaun Alexander run away from going to the NFCCG that year to face New Orleans.

Pete Hunter got an interception in that game….only for Hasselbeck to just throw it blindly to Ricky Manning Jr shortly thereafter.

Seattle Seahawks: We've got Brian Russell and TWO kickers!

by SSreporters on Jun 5, 2009 3:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and Babs

dropping a first quarter interception deep in Chicago territory. Shaun’s run late in the game on the 3rd and long draw for the TD was magical.

by Hancock.Brett on Jun 7, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now with added keyboard cat goodness:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm7uobki920

by jb3 on Jun 5, 2009 5:26 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

god bless you.

NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 6, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That 83% is a little bogus, in my opinion.

And I’ve been arguing this with every Pokes fan ever since that fateful day.

Even had the Cowboys made that kick, we’d have had a ton of time (what, a minute and a half?) to get into position for a game-winning field goal after. How hard is it to move forty yards in a minute and a half, using all four downs?

by djafrot on Jun 5, 2009 5:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We would have had a 17% chance of doing so.

by abender20 on Jun 6, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Less than that.

Since in that 17% is the 2% or so chance that he’d miss the kick or botch the snap.

by LantermanC on Jun 8, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops.

by abender20 on Jun 8, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Easy in Madden, not exactly the same in real life.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Jun 7, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're right...

… that’s definitely not an impossible task. How hard is it, you ask?

I’d say it has about a 17% chance of happening. Sound about right?

by nucleard on Jun 5, 2009 6:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I assume you're talking to me, though clearly not through "reply"

But no, I think it’s much greater than 17%. You’re telling me that out of five times that Hawks team, which passed very well that year, needed to go forty-fifty yards in a minute and a half, using all four downs, then hit a field goal with “money” Josh Brown… they’d only do it once?

Nuh uh.

by djafrot on Jun 5, 2009 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your gut is not as accurate as facts and research.

by John Morgan on Jun 5, 2009 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Djafrot you should look at facts.

The hawks where in the situation 5 times to take the ball down the field for the last possession and won 3 times.

Josh Brown 50 Yd, 0:05. Drive: 10 plays, 54 yards in 2:32.

Josh Brown 38 Yd, 0:09. Drive: 8 plays, 29 yards in 2:21.

Josh Brown 50 Yd, 0:05. Drive: 10 plays, 54 yards in 2:32.

Vincent Jackson, 37 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Nate Kaeding kick is good), 0:29. Drive: 5 plays, 59 yards in 1:31.

01:38 1:38 SEA 20 10 26 Downs

So taking the facts and doing research we see in the sample size given by this seahawk team that they were better than just a 17% chance to win.

by Fudwamper on Jun 6, 2009 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Was that other game the one at Kansas City?

Seattle Seahawks: We've got Brian Russell and TWO kickers!

by SSreporters on Jun 6, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, it was Denver. The 3 wins were STL, and Denver. The two losses were SD and CHI.

The CHI one was a killer since the 1st down was right over the middle and Hass made that bad decision to go over the top.

by Fudwamper on Jun 6, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Five games do not better illustrate probability than thousands of games.

Please use the subject line.

by John Morgan on Jun 8, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"that Hawks team, which passed very well that year"

Speaking of facts and research, in the regular season Hasselbeck and Wallace combined to throw 290-519 for 3369 yards, 26 TDs and 22 INTs. We did not pass very well at all. Not a single game saw Seattle have over 300 yards passing.

That was also a year when we were top 10 in drops (we had 30, and luckily were the only team to make the playoffs when more than 10% of the starting QB’s passes, in which case was Hasselbeck’s, dropped).

Fittingly, I found that last statistic and a picture of Keary Colbert with the Panthers was used.

I have no idea where you got the notion we were good at passing in 2006.

Seattle Seahawks: We've got Brian Russell and TWO kickers!

by SSreporters on Jun 5, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My bad on the year.

I was thinking 2007.

Either way, all I’m saying is that I’m surprised by the 83% stat. Usually when I watch Seahawks football I’ve got a good read on what the team is capable and not capable of. In that case, I was pleasantly surprised by Romo’s drop, but still felt like we had a very good chance of winning even had they made it.

by djafrot on Jun 5, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In general, game winning drives are tremendously hard to orchestrate, no matter what the circumstance is.

You could easily just as well say Dallas’ defense could have pinned their ears back and overcame our line.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 7, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I KNOW I KNOW

Again, the point I was making is that I’m surprised by the 17%. That’s all.

by djafrot on Jun 7, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're kind of right.

that 17% chance (correct me if I’m wrong) represents all teams’ chance of making a comeback. So that assumes an average offense. Since we had an above average offense and an above average kicker, it maybe closer to 25% or something.

by LantermanC on Jun 8, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seattle had a below average offense.

by John Morgan on Jun 8, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What the hell?

Am I reading this right?
We went from the 3rd ranked offense to the 28th ranked offense?

by LantermanC on Jun 8, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nevermind, that was Hasselbeck's injured, high INT year.

And Alexander’s fall off a cliff year.

by LantermanC on Jun 8, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never noticed this in the clip before

but one of our players gets hurt and is laying face down on the turf right at the line of scrimmage throughout the entire play and celebration. Anyone know/remember who that was and what happened?

Man I loves me that clip. Never gets old.

by Camarostache '77 on Jun 5, 2009 8:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Looks like....

Julian Peterson 59 to me.
-
This play quite literally gives me chills every time I watch it.
We have one of the best stadiums, and fan bases in the league.

"And the life of man, solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short." Thomas Hobbes' "Leviathan"

"But, in spite of these things, it was a gay and magnificent revel." Edgar Allen Poe "The Masque of the Red Death"

by Grimm Blackwood on Jun 6, 2009 6:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

WTF?!!?

I have zero clue why the number “59” in my above post turned out to be a link.. I never created any link… I merely enclosed the number 59 in brackets. Must be either a technical problem on the site, or something I’m not aware of. Either way, sorry about that.

"And the life of man, solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short." Thomas Hobbes' "Leviathan"

"But, in spite of these things, it was a gay and magnificent revel." Edgar Allen Poe "The Masque of the Red Death"

by Grimm Blackwood on Jun 6, 2009 6:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

SBN has some auto-formatting rules that make no sense.

by BrianL on Jun 6, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hearing the 12th Man after the fumble and recovery

literally makes my stomach convulse with excitement.

God bless this clip, I want to show this to my kids in 15 years.

by PRIDEin253 on Jun 5, 2009 8:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Whenever i see this, i really enjoy the rest of my day.

by JamMasterJesus on Jun 5, 2009 10:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Usually me too.

Today was an especially bad day, but this video always manages to brighten my day. It’s just that….good!

by Fear on Jun 6, 2009 1:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never get tired of seeing that clip

I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me.

by wadswerth on Jun 5, 2009 11:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Romo Fingers

Does anyone recall that they actually made an action figure of the infamous Romo fumble? Good times.

Oh, and I still get a chuckle every time I see that.

Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.

by Carl Shinyama on Jun 6, 2009 12:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dallas may have had an 83% chance to win at that point...

but their fans still had an 89% chance to be douchey.

Please, for the LOVE OF GOD, stop suggesting next year's 1st round pick (or picks) be used for Taylor Mays and or a QB of the future. Let's just let the season unfold, people, and evaluate much deeper in the process!!!

by whiskey chainsaw on Jun 6, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Whew.

See that video made me cheer with wild abandon again. Love it.

by archaios7 on Jun 6, 2009 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Quite possibly my favourite Seahawks game of all time

This play, of course. Alexander’s 20 yard run from the 2 to ice it right after. Tatupu holding Whitten up late in the 4th quarter that prevented the first down that would have put Dallas at about a 98% chance of winning (though I think the refs may have blown that call in our favour). The crazy play that ended in a safety: a great team effort by (iirc) Kelly Jennings, Julian Peterson,and Lofa again. Our secondary, anchored by Bail-Bondsman Pete Hunter, holding TO to fuck-all yardage. Their best player on the night, Julius Jones, is now a Seahawk. It was the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night. It doesn’t get much better than that.

by Keasley on Jun 6, 2009 10:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs