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Assessing 2009 Seahawks Potential (Using John Clayton's Keys to Success)

In recent blogs and interviews, ESPN's John Clayton has described "five key positions" he considers the keys to improving an NFL team.

These "five key positions" (listed in Clayton's stated order) are Quarterback, Left Offensive Tackle, Defensive End/Pass Rusher, Wide Receiver, and Cornerback.  Of course Clayton recognizes other positions such as RB or MLB to be important but feels that teams can more easily find adequate players to fill these roles.  His "five" are the impact positions for which top-flight pros are in short supply.

Let's look at the Seahawk's performance at these five key positions in 2008, and their prospects for improvement in 2009.

Key #1 Quarterback:

2008:
Matt Hasselbeck struggled with a bulging disc in his back, took too many hits by opposing pass rushers, and was sent to the IR list after 7 games (52.2 % completions, 5 TD, 10 INT, 19 SCK).  Seneca Wallace started the final 11 games and was competent  (58.3% complete, 11 TD, 3 INT, 14 SCK) but played behind a make-shift offensive line and generally fell short of Hasselbeck's ability to make the plays needed to extend drives.  

2009:
The Seahawks should receive a big boost in point production and victories from the return of a healthy Hass.  By all accounts, his back is sound and strengthened by his conditioning program, but only full-speed game action will allow Matthew to demonstrate his fitness.  Clayton considers the return of a starting QB from injury to be the factor most likely to improve a team's record from one year to the next, and suggests this one change can be responsible for as many as 6 points/game which can translate into as many as 6 additional victories. 

Prospects for improved QB play in 2009?  Excellent.


Key #2 Left Offensive Tackle

2008:
For the past 11 seasons, the Seahawks have known one left tackle - Walter Jones.  Jones affects every opponent's defensive game plan and simplifies the Seahawks' plan on offense by making the opponent's blind-side pass rusher disappear.  In 2008, Jones' shoulder was unhealthy most of the year, and and when his knee sidelined him near season's end, several players (Locklear, Womack, Williams) were rotated in to fill the gaping hole at LOT.

2009:
The biggest question mark, and potential dark cloud hanging over this team is the fate of Walter's surgically-repaired knee.  His rehab from microfracture knee surgery appears nearly complete, but once stressed repeatedly in game action, no one knows how it will hold up.  If Big Walt's knee cannot hold up, its failure could be career-threatening.  In his absence, Sean Locklear would man the LOT spot (a plan that was fuddled in 2008 by Locklear's injuries).  Although Lock would be significantly less intimidating to opposing pass rushers he is an experienced pro who would get the job done.  Ray Willis would move to ROT, and the offensive line would at least be appreciably better than in those final games of 2008 when Jones and Locklear were both out injured at the same time.  No Seahawks fan will be comfortable seeing Walter exit after 11 years of domination at this most important position, but fans should take comfort in having another top flight Tackle waiting in the wings.  Few NFL teams are staffed three-deep in starting-quality OTs.

Prospects for improved LOT play in 2009?  Fair.


Key #3 Defensive End/Pass Rusher

2008:
The Seahawks had two dominant pass rushers, Patrick Kerney rushing from the LDE position, and Julian Peterson rushing from ROLB.  Kerney was injured in week 8 against San Francisco, irreparably weakening the Seahawks defense for the remaining 8 games.  The combination of Peterson, DE Darryl Tapp, rookie DE Lawrence Jackson, and second-year DE Baraka Atkins managed a fair number of sacks but often allowed quarterbacks too much time to stand in the pocket, scan the field, and complete their passes on third-down.

2009: 
Patrick Kearney returns from rehab and is running, lifting, and says he's "feeling fantastic".  He had this to say about his prospects on May 21st: "There was the original shoulder surgery, and I hurt my shoulder again against San Francisco so they repaired the labrum.  After that they did a wrist reconstruction which is why I was playing with a cast all season.  Then I had some bone chips removed from my elbow since I had been wanting to do for three years and finally had time to do it.  Its feeling good and I'm already pressing. This is all upper body rehab which is a very good thing because at my position as long as you can still run, that's the key.  I'm working on my upper body now and I'll get the bulk back and be at 275 pounds by training camp."

The Will (weak side) LB position will be manned by Leroy Hill, who should have 8-plus sack potential now that he will be allowed to focus on pass rushing.  Versatile rookie Aaron Curry is expected to take on Hill's former role on the strong side covering the opponent's TE.  These changes should produce more consistent and assignment-correct performances from the LB corps.  The return of a healthy Patrick Kerney (12-plus sack potential) should again strike fear into the eyes of opposing QBs, which was seldom true of Darryl Tapp or young Lawrence Jackson in 2008.  Former Lion Cory Redding adds his versatility to the defensive line rotation and is expected to play hybrid role at DE and 3-technique-DT.  Key also to the rotation will be 320-lb wide-bodies Colin Cole and Red Bryant rotating in at Nose Tackle to take on double teams and keep blockers off of the Seahawks' LBs.

Prospects for an improved Pass Rush in 2009?  Very Good.


Key #4 Wide Receiver

2008:
The Seahawks began the year with Branch and Engram recovering from injuries, Obamanu was lost to injury during the preseason, Burleson and Payne were lost to injuries during game one.  From bad to worse, the receiving corps eventually featured a bevy of backups and the passing game never gained its footing.  By season's end, Branch was starting but was just beginning to regain the skills he had pre-injury.

2009:
Branch returns at full strength, Burleson should regain 100% by season's end, and T. J. Houshmandzadeh joins the team after three successive 90-plus catch seasons in Cincinnati.  If healthy, this three-WR corps could be among the NFL's better units.  In addition, speedy rookie Deon Butler (4.28/40) joins the team, leaving the remaining roster spots hotly contested.

Prospects for improved WR play in 2009?  Excellent.


Key #5 Cornerback

2008:
Marcus Trufant enjoyed another solid season at CB in which he could never do enough to overcome the breakdowns in the front seven in front of him.  The other CB spot and the Nickel-CB were manned by Kelly Jennings and young Josh Wilson.  Injuries troubled Jennings, who struggled against bigger receivers.  Josh Wilson moved from Nickel-CB to take Jennings' place opposite Trufant near the season's end, playing bigger than his 5-foot 9-inch frame would suggest.

2009:
Ken Lucas, veteran of the 2001-04 Seahawks seasons, returns.  If the team is lucky, Lucas will have a big chip on his shoulder and insist on reclaiming and keeping his former starting job.  Lucas' height and physical presence should toughen the pass defense.  Scrappy Josh Wilson is likely to be the favored Nickel-CB.  This leaves Jennings competing with both Lucas and Wilson, and ready to step in to fill at any CB position if a man goes down injured.  The last point to consider is that an improved pass rush can only serve to aid the CB's pass defense efforts.  If opposing QBs have less time to scan the field before throwing, this could make all the difference.

Prospects for improved CB play in 2009?  Good.


What Clayton's Five Keys Tell Us

It would appear that General Manager Tim Ruskell has done his job well by bolstering these five important positions in preparation for the coming season.  Considering the rash of injuries in 2008, this improved outlook for 2009 suggests the Seahawks have potential for the most improved record in the NFL.

If players falter at other positions (S, RB, OG, and C come to mind as positions with lingering question marks) this will affect the team's prospects.  However, on paper this team looks like they can accomplish 10 or 11 wins and regain the NFC West crown.

The results on the field may largely depend on the degree to which Hasselbeck, Jones, and Kerney have rehabilitated their injuries and whether these aging players stay out of the trainer's room and on the playing field.

 

A place to bury strangers.

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Good fanpost.

Well worth the read.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 7, 2009 7:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Some issues

- If I recall correctly, Hasselbeck was not IR’d.
- I could have sworn Wallace threw 13 TDs.
- I wouldn’t exactly say the probability of ‘improved’ LT play is very good. While Walt did finally succumb to injury near the end of the season, he was still studly as usual at the LT position. Best case scenario is that Locklear transitions well as LT and becomes an above average starter, and I wouldn’t consider it likely he’s a net upgrade over Walt. But he will be better than Kyle Williams or Womack or whoever was starting at LT.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 7, 2009 7:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

also

the Mike LB is Tatupu. Mike for Middle. The Sam linebacker (Curry) plays over the TE. And it’s Sean Locklear. Minor details I don’t mean to rag, and I don’t care if people misspell in their posts, but I figure since it’s an article and all.

Good read though, I like what you did Stevo’s. I also really like our chances this year. Seems we’ve filled some holes and if everyone stays healthy, we should have a pretty good shot at going deep into the playoffs.

by B.B.Finnegan on Jun 7, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point, Fearless.

Fearless, thanks for your comment. I think you’re right, and I did mean it when I said that Walter’s knee surgery hangs over the team like a dark cloud. Still, his shoulder should be 100% for a change. I downgraded the ’propects for improved play at LOT to “fair”.

by Stevo's on Jun 7, 2009 7:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Good read, nice job.

I like the points you made and the optimism. Every Hawks fan should be feeling pretty good at this point in the offseason with no injuries and a freshly bolstered team full of promising additions. I hope for a division title and think we can accomplish that with a 9 win season. This team can do it, let’s hope Hass is healthy and B-Russ is out of the starting lineup!

Currently listening to: Grizzly Bear, Manchester Orchestra, The Morning Benders

by Woodinville_12thMan on Jun 7, 2009 10:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

10 to 11 wins is pretty damn optimistic

especially when so much of your argument hinges on Walter Jones, Matt Hasselbeck, and Patrick Kerney not declining skills-wise. An even bigger problem is the expectation that two of these three or all three can stay healthy. Given their age and injury histories, decline in skills is a very real possibility and further injuries is an even bigger possibility. Things are really stacked against these three.

This team will be better than it was in 2008, but it’s going to take some extraordinary rebounds by these players and others to be 6-7 wins better than 2008. I just don’t think that’s a reasonable expectation.

by BrianL on Jun 8, 2009 12:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It is optimistic,

but I think he meant out of all the crap teams from last year, ours has the most potential. We could potentially win 10 games, and I’ll agree with that. I’m not sure any of the other teams picking in the first 7 picks have a realistic shot of that . I think we’ll be 8-8 or 9-7 though (assuming Hasselbeck is healthy all year long).

Look at Miami, they improved, in part because of #1 and #2: Pennington and Long.
I suppose Jacksonville is another candidate to improved if Gerrard can be halfway decent, and if the two tackles they drafted and the tackle they signed can be any good.

by LantermanC on Jun 8, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can see 9-7 being pretty much what we can hope to expect.

Our schedule looks much tougher (on paper, as usual) than last year’s and we have not only a lot of injury history but new systems offensively and defensively to learn.

Potential-wise, I don’t think there’s a limit to what this Seahawk team can do. Probablility-wise, that’s something else.

by djafrot on Jun 8, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Enjoyable post.

Thanks for the read.

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jun 8, 2009 9:54 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Good read

But I’m feeling more and more that Seahawks fans might be drinking the cool-aid too much on the return from injury of players.

Four out of five key positions have people returning from injury. At least three out of five have aging players filling the spots. Two out of five (at least) have injuries that I personally fully expect to remain a problem (Hass’ Back and Jones’ knee, I’m not sure why people keep underselling Hass’ Back. Back injuries tend to be tricky, if not downright weird and unpredictable).

It’s feelgood time ’n all, but might it not be fairer to say that the likelyhood is pretty big that injuries will pull us into another shitty year and 2k9 will be remembered as a reconstruction/transitional year?

by Vasilii on Jun 8, 2009 12:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Credit to Ruskell?

I have a hard time seeing how Ruskell has “done his job well by bolstering these five important positions.” What he’s really done is draft Curry (not a difficult choice); trade Peterson for Redding (laudable for its own reasons, but not for immediate positive impact on the pass rush); sign Ken Lucas (we’ll see how that plays out); and then cross his fingers that a bunch of players will get healthier or better. I suppose not pressing the panic button is a positive.

by Suburban Shocker on Jun 8, 2009 2:56 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Re: Credit to Ruskell?

Yes, credit to Ruskell.

1. Its true he can take no credit for Hasselbeck or Wallace.
2. OT’s Locklear and Willis are both under contract because Ruskell re-signed them.
3. The pass rushers – Kerney, Hill, Jackson, Tapp, Atkins, and Redding (and the interior lineman Mebane, Cole, and Bryant) are all here because Ruskell drafted/signed them.
4. Top 4 WRs – Branch, Burleson, Housh, Butler – all signed by Ruskell.
5. Ken Lucas re-signed by Ruskell. Wilson and Jennings drafted by Ruskell.

The only people in this whole article not on the team due to Ruskell are Hass, Wallace, Walter, and Tru.

It amazes me sometimes how little credit this guy gets.

by Stevo's on Jun 8, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair, most of the defense last season was assembled by Ruskell, and it was disgustingly terrible.

Likewise, just about all of Ruskell’s offensive players sucked ass in their own ways too.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 8, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If it weren't for the Raiders and Al Davis, Marshall would probably nobody's guy.

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jun 8, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Raiders must have the hardest time getting coaches and free agents.

Look at what they game Nmandi! All guaranteed. While deserving a large contract, i think that contract would b ridiculed more if wasn’t “oh another raider signing.”

by Built2Spill on Jun 8, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.

I’m just saying that it’s understandable why people aren’t committed to Ruskell; some of the team’s best players didn’t come from him, are soon going to be gone, and the prognosis on their replacements hasn’t been exactly stellar.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 8, 2009 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want to see if the improvement is real

I can’t stand the offseason hype. All that matters in football is what happens on the field on Sunday. I want to see if all this talent and improved health will have the expected effect. Football season can’t get here soon enough.

by ASeahawkfan on Jun 12, 2009 11:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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