History shows it's unlikely TJ will catch >70 passes in '09

by Nick Andron on Jul 16, 2009 8:32 AM PDT

Although the poll Danny posted ("How many catches with TJ have in 2009") wasn't terribly interesting nor the results surprising, his analysis of newly-inked free agent receivers is.

Turns out it's rare that receivers, in their first year with a new team, catch 70+ passes. Only 15 players have done it in the past 6 years, only two of which were above 30 years old. It is interesting to note, however, that Danny does not include the total pool of "new" receivers over those past 6 years, so take the stat with a grain of salt. (Anyone wanna do that research and post the result? eh? ehhh???)

Although not terribly statistically sound, it's still quite interesting. Let's hope TJ can buck that trend.

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Simple question

Did any of these guys come out of 3 consecutive 90+ catch seasons before joining their new team?

It’s not just statistically unsound, it’s logically unsound: he isn’t saying anything useful about a decline in catches for WRs who switch teams, so his whole argument falls flat on its face before it even begins.

by Thomas Beekers on Jul 16, 2009 10:19 AM PDT reply actions

My TJ projections is:

78-960-11

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jul 20, 2009 5:01 PM PDT reply actions

That's a very fair guess

The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.

by Nick Andron on Jul 20, 2009 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions

I like it except the TDs I'm a bit leery about.

Obviously it’s hard (impossible) to predict TDs, but 11 seems like a lot. Plus I truly do feel that we have a several good options in the red zone (Carlson and Duckett).

by LantermanC on Jul 22, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh, and I'm extremely excited to see what Burleson can do this year

because I thought he would’ve had a BIG year last year if him and Matty were healthy.

by LantermanC on Jul 22, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions

Exactly what I thought about Fo predicting Juice Jones getting 11

shared among Carlson, Duckett & Housh, it was very high. Same here.

by jacobstevens on Jul 22, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Housh will go the way of Branch. Much hyped aquisition that will result in lackluster performance. Burleson is the #1 receiver . plain and simple

by PUO on Jul 25, 2009 5:35 PM PDT reply actions

So what's it like

being Nate’s father and biggest fan?

Portland transplant to Boston.

by cmcdougall on Jul 25, 2009 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions

#1 at being mediocre, perhaps.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 27, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Excitement

I feel like its hard to get a better starting receiving corps than this one. Burleson showed so much promise in Buffalo before he went down, Branch mostly just had a run of bad luck, and TJ is a proven asset with the physical presence we’ve lacked til now. Oh and Carlson. Very reliable.

by Cheddar28 on Jul 27, 2009 1:00 AM PDT reply actions