The Yellow Line

by abender20 on Jul 2, 2009 8:33 AM PDT in Daily Links Comment 9 comments

Let's try a little game. I'm going to pose a series of three questions, and you will answer them one by one in your head. Don't follow the link until you've answered all three.

In your head, picture a football game. The offense has the ball and is about to pass. Don't consider YAC, but only the position of the catch itself relative to the first down line.

1.) It's third down. Where, relative to the televised yellow first down line and within +/- 2 yards of the line, is the most difficult distance to complete a pass to? I'm looking for a distance from the first down line, so horizontal distance from the quarterback is irrelevant at this moment.

2.) It's second down. Same question.

3.) First down. Again.

The answers can be found here.

How did you do?

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I'd seen the RSS for this article already

so knew where you were going with this, but still got it wrong. Easy to surmise on third downs it’d be more difficult right about at the 1st down marker, but given conservative coaching endemic in the league I expected 2nd & 3rd to be a little deeper as the bend-don’t-break theory was put into practice.

It’s a pretty interesting observation, hadn’t occurred to me before.

OT, loved this comment in the FO thread: “MOAR POINTS = WIN” That is now the slogan for my summer.

by jacobstevens on Jul 2, 2009 10:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think there are a few factors at play...

The first – and this was noted in the comments of that article, is that the defense plays near the line, with the intent of encouraging passes well in front of it. Receivers, meanwhile, are taught to go beyond the line by a few yards, so that they can come back to the ball and still be beyond the marker.

The second factor I’d like to suggest, is that if a receiver has made a catch short of the line, and is not sure of being well past, he will leave a well guarded area and move horizontally – even backward – to new territory in hopes of getting the sure first down. Thus, a receiver will risk losing a yard or two to get past the first down line by a safe yard or two.

Of course, if they really had a yellow line on the field denoting the first down marker, you might see the numbers tighten up a bit.

I bet this has changed since the 70s, when offenses were much more comfortable running on 3rd and less than 4 – so being a yard short on second down was no big deal. Now, you see teams throwing it more often on 3rd and short, with the actual yardage being less relevant than the first down – so receivers are more likely to play for the new first down on 1st and 2nd down.

I wonder how much of an impact distance to first is? For example, it would probably be easier to throw at the first down marker if you were a slant distance from the line – where Tennessee and Pittsburgh, teams with more established run game, probably have more 2nd/3rd and short plays, so even a quick slant is well beyond the marker for them.

by PerryCollective on Jul 2, 2009 11:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs