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2008 Season Retrospective: Patrick Kerney

Overview: Patrick Kerney played in seven games before a torn labrum in his left shoulder ended his season. It was the second labrum tear in his left shoulder in less than a year. He's also had surgery on his wrist and surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He had five sacks in his seven games.

What went right: Seattle's defensive line declined, especially at rushing the passer, and despite a less capable Rocky Bernard and playing across the line from the ineffectual Lawrence Jackson, Kerney set a pace for double digit sacks. He showed pretty good speed around the edge and kept himself in plays by moving his feet and working his hands. His essential pass rush repertoire was intact: The first step, the push to separate, the equally capable inside and outside burst, and the inside rip.

What went wrong: He still wasn't as good as he was in 2007. He had more sacks through seven, but he was less disruptive. He was severely injured and lost most of his age 31 season. He turned 32 last December.

Outlook: Kerney ranks 50th all-time for career sacks. 28 defensive ends that played through their age 32 season rank ahead of him. It's a group you would expect to play well late into their career, and they did. They averaged 10 sacks in their age 30 season and 13 finished with double digit sacks. They averaged 9.8 sacks in their age 31 season and 18 finished with double digit sacks. 32 is the first big drop*. They averaged just 7.3 sacks and only eight finished with double digit sacks. Four of those eight are in the top five for career sacks, and those four represent 54.5 of the 204.5 sacks accredited to the group. The remaining 24 averaged 6.3 sacks. Kerney is not Bruce Smith, Reggie White or Michael Strahan, but maybe he can be Chris Doleman. Doleman's unheralded but fantastic career had definite peaks and valleys. He had 27 sacks at 31 and 32, just 16 at 33 and 34, but then 38 at 35, 36 and 37. Doleman was never severely injured. Kerney's got about as bad a bunch of injuries as a defensive lineman can have without losing his back or knees.

I don't expect a precipitous drop, though it's happened to better ends than Kerney, but anything approaching his 2007 is far fetched. If he's healthy, Kerney is likely good for five to nine sacks. He could be worse, he could be hurt still or hurt again, but he's very unlikely to be much better. It is much more likely Kerney gets less than five sacks than more than ten sacks in 2009. After 2009, the team better figure out a replacement and fast.

*One might say, for an acceleration dependent position like defensive end, 32 is like a running back's age 30.

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My question is whether Seattle is...

seeking to diversify its pass rush, and not just replace Kerney?

Is moving Mebane into position to be disruptive is part of the plan? Is putting Leroy Hill in position to blitz more often another part of the plan? Is getting Darryl Tapp onto the field to rush the passer still another part of the plan?

If Seattle’s answer to these questions is yes my question you John is, what do you think of this plan? Will it work?

If Seattle’s answer is more like, “Well, these other things are important but we really need to see a return of the 2007 Patrick Kerney to get this defense back on track,” will you join me in pulling your hair out?

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Jul 9, 2009 3:25 PM PDT reply actions  

Seattle should look to maximize their pass rush at every opportunity

I would hope they wouldn’t look at a below average Kerney (assuming he does decline) and say it’s ok because we’re blitzing Leroy more.

by Nate Dogg on Jul 9, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

They are doing these things

But none of them would or should replace a dominant Defensive end. You can have all of those things AND have Patrick Kearney tearing it up.

That position is extremely important, and I hope Kearney comes off of his surgery and manages to stay effective and disruptive for a few more years.

The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.

by Nick Andron on Jul 9, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know if Seattle will diversify its pass rush.

From what I’ve read, the coaching staff is expecting the front four to generate pressure.

by John Morgan on Jul 9, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not exactly a bad idea.

I love blitzing as much as the next person but isn’t it far more advantageous if the front four is providing consistent pressure everyone else can drop back into coverage?

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 9, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's rather reductionist

Creating pressure with the front four is a goal not a means to an end. Seattle needs to pressure the quarterback, and it’s unlikely the defensive line can do that on its own. If Seattle blindly relies on its front four to generate pass rush, the secondary will fall apart.

by John Morgan on Jul 9, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Kerney is probably my favorite Seahawk.

I like him irrationally so, and if he only had 5 sacks the next year I’d still support keeping him on the team.
Though if he does start to suck, and one of the three of Tapp, Jackson, or Atkins does well, you can sure bet the stories about the veteran presence helping out the younger guys will start to pop up.

by LantermanC on Jul 9, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions  

If they want to save Kerney by seasons end...

I would imagine that they would save him for more pass rush situations, second and long & third and long. It’s almost like reducing his role as an every down player to more of that specialist role. How’d he hold up on the run? (I didn’t notice) Are we gonna see more LJack, Tapp, and Redding on first downs? Is this Kerney’s last year???

by PoolNinja on Jul 9, 2009 6:29 PM PDT reply actions  

You can't save Kerney

Seattle will be struggling to stay in contention, and, unfortunately, in the modern NFL, every down is a passing down.

by John Morgan on Jul 9, 2009 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know.

The Falcons last year used Abraham smartly in limiting his snaps to keep him healthy while being aware that he would face an easier chance of injury and decline in play as in past seasons. That plan worked well for them to the tune of 16.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Abraham is 31.

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jul 9, 2009 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Abraham is a liability against the run.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 10, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Misfit hit on my point...

Why not use Kerney as John Abraham? He has terrible knees, but still was able to get 16 sacks with that limited, specialized role. Seriously, not all downs are passing downs. Look at teams like the Ravens, Falcons, Titans, and Steelers, all that would run the ball on first downs. I agree with byron about the Cards, but look at 49ers and Rams, those teams would probably be “run first” teams. I’m just saying that we should look at Kerney as being more specialized and limit his play to conserve him towards the end.

by PoolNinja on Jul 10, 2009 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, for one thing...

In addition to being our best pass rusher, Kerney is our best running defender at DE too. Jackson will likely surpass him soon, but Tapp is simply a pass rusher.

If anything, flip it around and have Kerney rest occasionally on passing downs and maximize Tapp’s effectiveness.

Please, for the LOVE OF GOD, stop suggesting next year's 1st round pick (or picks) be used for Taylor Mays and or a QB of the future. Let's just let the season unfold, people, and evaluate much deeper in the process!!!

by Tyler Jorgensen on Jul 10, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Just on pass rushing downs?

Keep Kerney out of the preseason (except for the second to last game), and when the season starts, MAKE HIM A 1st and 3rd down pass rusher, seems simple. Patrick has a great motor, but two major operations in three years should signal a lttle less playing time this year. 8-10 sacks would be very good for him this year if he can stay healthy, but to think he has another 12-15 sack season in him is a little to much.

What I would hope at this time is that Tapp, Jackson, Atkins (from the last three years drafts) and maybe Reed and Bennett (from this year draft) are all watching and taking notes on how to rush the QB from a legit good/great pass rusher. When you have a guy like Kerney on your team you better take some notes, he is a true pro and a guy you can learn from.

by JustinWF on Jul 10, 2009 6:59 PM PDT reply actions  

Is Kerney's problem that he's slowing down or that he has a bum shoulder?

I’m not sure what good holding him back would do, his chances of re-injuring his shoulder are what they are.

by Nate Dogg on Jul 11, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hum?

True, but I would think that giving him less snaps will make him better as the season goes along (and maybe into the playoffs). It would also give him a chance to play one or two more seasons extra. That’s just how I look at it.

by JustinWF on Jul 12, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

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