The Poor Man's Roster Analysis
Submitted for your approval or otherwise, a Roster Analysis compiled in light of two preseason games and the latest moves/injuries. I claim no inside access or expertise so take it for what you will. Hat-tip and humble gratitude to Tacoma News Tribune beat writer Eric Williams, who continues Sando's tradition, and from whom the numbers and template I have lifted nearly whole cloth.
Quarterback
Last season: 3
Currently on roster: 4
Average number kept since 2002: 3
Locks: Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace
Solid: Mike Teel
Camp fodder: Jeff Rowe
Seneca = Wildcat. Teel rhymes with Steal.
Running back
Number kept last season: 6
Currently on roster: 8
Average number kept since 2002: 5.5
Locks: Julius Jones, Edgerrin James, Justin Forsett, Owen Schmitt, Justin Griffith
Long odds: David Kirtman, Devin Moore
Camp fodder: Dan Curran
Weird fact: Edgerrin James is a Seahawk. Replacing Duckett with Edge is a low-risk, medium-upside shakeup to an RB corps that clearly needed it. I assume they go 3 RB and 2 FB with other loaded positions (WR, DL) vying for roster space.
Wide receiver
Number kept last season: 6
Currently on roster: 10
Average number kept since 2002: 6
Locks: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Deon Butler
Solid: Ben Obomanu
On the bubble: Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent, Mike Hass
Camp fodder: Logan Payne, Michael Bumpus.
I like Hass, based mostly on his nice route and catch for a TD against the Chargers. He could fill that hard-workin' scrappy WR role a la Wes Welker. Plus "Hasselbeck complete to Hass" has a certain lyrical symmetry. Hass does have practice squad eligibility and my guess is Taylor gets the sixth spot. Jordan Kent, we hardly saw thee do a damn thing.
Tight end
Number kept last season: 3
Currently on roster: 5
Average number kept since 2002: 3
Locks: John Carlson, John Owens
On the bubble: Joe Newton, Cameron Morrah
Camp fodder: John Tereshinski
Newton has impressed; late-rounder Morrah would be headed for the practice squad.
Offensive line
Number kept last season: 9
Currently on roster: 14
Average number kept since 2002: 9
Locks: Walter Jones, Sean Locklear, Chris Spencer, Ray Willis, Rob Sims, Max Unger, Mansfield Wrotto, Steve Vallos.
On the bubble: Kyle Williams, Na’Shan Goddard
Camp fodder: William Robinson, Andre Ramsey, Cory Withrow, Grey Ruegamer Brian De La Puente
Ugh. At best, Big Walt returns just in time for the opener and Spencer comes back in Week 3. Maybe they add somebody (Levi Jones?) plus Williams/Goddard and keep 10. Maybe not, since most of these guys back up multiple line positions. Max Unger, please save us.
Defensive line
Number kept last season: 9
Currently on roster: 13
Average number kept since 2002: 9
Locks: Darryl Tapp, Brandon Mebane, Patrick Kerney, Lawrence Jackson, Red Bryant, Colin Cole, Cory Redding, Craig Terrill, Nick Reed.
On the bubble: Baraka Atkins, Michael Bennett
Camp fodder: Kevin Brown, Derek Walker
Kerney is a huge ? and LoJack is invisible, but Nick Reed is fucking awesome and Michael Bennett may be this year's undrafted steal. Maybe the "extra" spot saved by keeping 5 RB and/or 4 CB leads to keeping 10 from this deep group, with Reed and Atkins making the 53 and Bennett on the PS. Or better yet, Bennett on the roster and the Atkins Diet on waivers. Dare to dream.
Linebackers
Number kept last season: 6
Currently on roster: 9
Average number kept since 2002: 6.6
Locks: Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, Aaron Curry, D.D. Lewis, David Hawthorne
On the bubble: Will Herring, Lance Laury
Camp fodder: Dave Philistin, Shane Simmons
Mr. Williams had Hawthorne "in the hunt" but Heater is a lock. Herring and Laury will have to play it out unless they keep seven, Herring maybe with a slight edge.
Cornerbacks
Number kept last season: 4
Currently on roster: 7
Average number kept since 2002: 4.5
Locks: Marcus Trufant, Ken Lucas, Josh Wilson, Kelly Jennings
Whatever: Kevin Hobbs, Travis Fisher, Marquis Floyd
I have no way of knowing who of Hobbs/Fisher/Floyd is in the lead for a hypothetical fifth CB spot. I can only offer the occasional animal sacrifice to the football gods for the health of Tru's disc. What offerings have you made for the health of Tru's disc?
Safeties
Number kept last season: 4
Currently on roster: 6
Average number kept since 2002: 4
Locks: Deon Grant, Brian Russell, Jordan Babineaux
On the bubble: C.J. Wallace, Jamar Adams, Courtney Greene
C.J. Wallace is closing down a roster spot, Adams and Greene are PS-eligible. Wallace brings the lumber, I'll give him that, but his punt-coverage forced fumble on Kenny McKinley should have been a personal foul. He speared the returner in the facemask with the crown of his helmet. In other news: prepare to be driven batshit crazy yet again by Brian Russell's assignment-correct pile of suck.
Specialists
Specialists kept last season: 4
Currently on roster: 4
Average number kept since 2002: 3
Locks: Jon Ryan, Kevin Houser
On the bubble: Brandon Coutu, Olindo Mare
Mare has a sore knee, while Coutu keeps drilling every kick. You have to think he now has the edge and just hope the ol' boy can be learned on touchback distance. Mare healthy is the better short-term option but they didn't carry the kid last year for no reason.
All corrections, critique and scorn are welcomed. Go Hawks.
Update: Grey Ruegamer waived, OL Brian De La Puente signed.
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Looks good
The only nits I’ll pick are with the WRs. I don’t think Hass has any PS eligibility left – he’s been in the league 2 years.
I’d put Taylor in the “solid” category. He seems to be the first one off the bench when the coaches send in the reserves. He’s had a very solid showing for himself, and he’s still young enough to where you can chalk ‘08 up as shock from being dropped in the fire so soon, but he’s learned from it and improved. Obo, on the other hand, seems to have regressed a bit. He’s been plagued by some lazy route running and other “effort” mistakes that I don’t think are going to sit well with the coaches come cut-down time.
I have no idea who gets that 6th spot. Payne? Even though kent hasn’t made those necessary steps as a WR, I could still see him getting it because of ST ability.
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
Agreed that the WR competition is still pretty fluid
Good to hear Taylor has looked better than has come across to me, a fan down here in San Diego. Payne/Kent over Obomanu would surprise me and I think Obo would be snapped up quickly by another team. According to Sando, Hass does have remaining PS eligibility.
by lemonverbena on Aug 25, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
good to know about Hass
I mistakenly thought he burned up his eligibility with the Bears last year, but I guess not.
It’s a tough call on Obo. Personally, he’s been the one I was rooting for … but he really hasn’t distinguished himself so far. But still, I’ve noticed that he’s getting sent in with the first wave of reserves, along with Taylor, so I wonder if that’s the best sign of his current status in the pecking order. What I like about Obo is supposedly he’s the only one that can play all 3 WR spots, that’s what probably gives him the leg up.
But I think those last 2 WR spots are going to come down to ST ability. Taylor’s a good gunner. Obo’s been on returns, but with Forsett, Wilson & Burleson ahead of him, is that enough of a niche to justify a spot? That’s why I think Payne or Kent might eclipse him. Both of those guys are gunners. Payne’s whiffed on some tackles, but Kent’s made a fairly good showing. Kent may never be the WR we wished, but he could very well be the next Bannister
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
Sound logic
It would be great for Kent to develop into an Bannister-style gunner. But due to the recent injury history with receivers, I think the team will decide to keep the best actual receiver with the sixth spot.
by lemonverbena on Aug 25, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
True.
One of those things that will come down to coaches preference/priority.
Personally, I think the chances of lightning striking the WR corp twice are remote. I’d go with the best gunner, under the logic they’re going to contribute every game vs. a WR sitting on the bench. Especially with the knowledge that you could stash at least one of Bumpus, Payne, or Hass on the PS. Plus take your chances that a guy like Obo will always be a phone call away during the season if you need him. (coming off an IR season and failing to cling on to our WR corp, I honestly don’t think he’ll be a hot commodity if cut)
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
Agreed, I think Taylor has been more impressive than Obo.
Obo has looked a bit lazy at times (the INT where he didn’t do much to break up it up, then stared at the guy as he tried to get back to return it for some yards, only to realize he had to touch him).
I don't think Terrill is a lock.
Bennett has outperformed him, and John Morgan himself has wondered whether or not he will be cut.
I would love to see Bennett make the 53-man over Terrill
but it would be quite a longshot for an undrafted free agent to beat out a 6th-year veteran
by lemonverbena on Aug 25, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
you're asking a lot
the team that keeps starting white man hustle at safety because of the “veteran leadership” he brings is then going to cut one of the best locker room guys and another maximum effort veteran in favor of an undrafted free agent? personally i’d prefer actual tackles and passes defensed to leadership, but then what do i know.
After Reed, Bennett has been the guy who has looked most impressive (relative to expectations)
to me. I know it’s hard to do, but Bennett is cheaper and younger. Though you are right, Terrill is a respected veteran on the team, and he does a good job of getting into the backfield at times, which is something a lot of our tackles don’t excel at.
I want Bennett to make this team
And I think it should happen.
However, I’ve already mentally prepared myself for all the reasons it likely won’t.
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
Reed and Bennett over Atkins and Terrill?
This could happen. Reed over Atkins looks like a good bet. Bennett over Terrill, maybe, but it is especially attractive since Terrill has limited upside at this stage of his career.
We could keep 10 D lineman to keep Reed and Bennett, and then its a battle between Atkins and Terrill.
agreed on Terrill
with Bryant looking strong and Bennett continually impressing Terrill should be worried. Everything else on the list looked pretty much spot on though, just seeing our offensive line listed out makes me sad.
Kent shouldn't be on the bubble
He’s got Teflon hands and only passes by because he’s athletic.
I’d put Bumpus ahead of him in my roster.
Beverly Hills 90210.......Denver Broncos 7.
And, I've underestimated Bumpus before
but figuring out whether he’s ahead of or behind Kent is kind of like deciding who gets which Certificate of Appreciation
by lemonverbena on Aug 25, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I would take Payne over Kent in a minute.
Kent is all potential and no production. He’s a track athlete trying to play football.
Payne is a football player. He’s a lot like Nick Reed. Too small, too slow, and just gets the job done play after play.
That sounds about right,
but neither has done much so far this preseason. It won’t make much of a difference either way, but if both haven’t done much, usually potential gets picked.
I don't see Atkins really being on the bubble.
But then again I don’t know where to stick him.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
I wouldn't rate him as on the bubble either
but numbers and the all-powerful Nick Reed compel that assessment
by lemonverbena on Aug 25, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm definitely going to keep an eye on Fisher this next game.
Up to this point, I’ve been concentrating too much on other battles to notice exactly when Fisher’s been getting sent in, how many snaps he’s been getting, or what position he’s getting them at.
But my gut feeling is that he should be Tru’s temporary replacement. He fits the scheme. Drafted into Lovie Smith’s version of the cover-2. Played in Marinelli’s version of it. He used to impress me when he was with the Rams – small but tough, sorta Josh Wilson-esque and he had ball skills. You just have to wonder where the decline came from. Was it mainly injury-related in St. Louis? And how do you figure out individual responsibility for the train-wreck that was Detroit last year?
But at any rate, Fisher at least seems to have the skillset you look for in a zone CB, as opposed to Jennings, who’s just seems totally miscast.
Tough to put a former 1st rounder on the bubble, especially when he’s flashed quality skills at certain points. But Jennings, IMO, just needs to be on a team that utilizes his strengths – not put him in a scheme that continually highlights his weaknesses, like ours tends to do.
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
Fisher played almost the entire second half
mostly as the nickel-back. He looks to me like a Josh Wilson back-up. I hope he sticks. I think he hasn’t been noticable, and sometimes that’s a good thing for a corner.
Good point.
I’m definitely not yelling Jennings! and Brian Russell! at my tv because I enjoy their performance.
My observations, etc:
*Can we afford to drop Vallos with Unger on board and keep an additional DL or WR?
*Atkins or Bennett surely have to make it over Vallos or a WR.
*Can we lose Newton and keep DL or WR over him?
I’d hate to lose promising D-linemen or have a 3rd string backup center (Vallos) kept over either a Safety prospect (Adams/CJ/Greene) or D-lineman (Bennett/Atkins).
I have to think there must be a way to keep Will Herring…
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer
Forgot about Terrill.
That guy serves a purpose, I guess, but he sure seems like a turd.
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer
I wish we would dump Terrill and keep Bennett.
It's Great to be a Florida Gator!
by Wayward Llama on Aug 26, 2009 5:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Unger?
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer
spencer, unger
2, no?
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer
One center other than the injured Spencer, I think he means
Vallos is taking the center snaps with the 1st team so he’s definitely not going anywhere
by lemonverbena on Aug 27, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Herring is an LB lock.
Great preseason so far, good special teamer, team seems to like him. Questions at the position is if you keep Laury on as #7, but he’s strictly a special teamer so I say give the spot to a talented defensive lineman.
Andrew Raycroft for backup? Does not compute.
by Woodinville_12thMan on Aug 25, 2009 8:59 PM PDT reply actions
I loved this post
I had my own version of it on spreadsheet and have been wringing my hands over who has to be cut. I hate to be a wet blanket, but Reeds hussle and stellar performance during 2 pre-season games reminds me of Forsett last year… just before they cut him. Reed is a demon at rushing the passer, but can he hold up against the run with Ryan Clady trying to pancake him?
Also, while Kent hasn’t impressed with receptions, yet, he has played very well as a gunner. In my mind that gives him the nod over the other bubble receivers.
Lastly, some other teams are going to cut quality players (Titans for example) and we may have to make room for 1-2 late pickups.
The O-line is in dismal shape. I read a report on Rotoworld that Willis has been hobbling with knee pain also. We may need Valos to play center if Unger has to take over right tackle. Thank God for Unger. We should have drafted 3 of him.
Vallos starting is simply terrifying.
It's Great to be a Florida Gator!
by Wayward Llama on Aug 26, 2009 5:45 AM PDT up reply actions
One decent game out of how many
where he was tossed around like a rag doll.
It's Great to be a Florida Gator!
by Wayward Llama on Aug 29, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
So 45 locks (incl Teel)
which means 8 bubble guys get in.
1. Courtney Taylor/Obo (Just one it seems?)
2. Joe Newton (3 TEs for goal line situations, no?)
3. Kyle Williams Nashon Goddard (Seems like we’d carry more depth than normal this year due to Walt and Spencer)
4. Mare/Coutu (hopefully just one!)
5. Will Herring. (He’s looked really good)
6. Adams/Greene/Wallace (Only enough space for one?)
7. Hobbs/Fischer (Just need one crappy junk heap CB)
Which leaves only one spot for Bennet and Atkins. I like both, but who from the list above would you leave out? Goddard?
Another good roster analysis
at NorthwestFootball. McIntyre’s “way too early” roster projection:
QB (3): Hasselbeck, Wallace, Teel
RB (5): Jones, James, Forsett, Schmitt, Griffith
WR (6): Houshmandzadeh, Burleson, Branch, Butler, Taylor, Kent
TE (3): Carlson, Owens, Newton
OL (9): Jones, Sims, Spencer, Unger, Locklear, Willis, Wrotto, Vallos, Williams
DL (9): Kerney, Redding, Cole, Mebane, Jackson, Tapp, Terrill, Bryant, Reed
LB (7): Tatupu, Hill, Curry, Lewis, Hawthorne, Herring, Laury
DB (8): Trufant, Lucas, Grant, Russell, Wilson, Babineaux, Jennings, Wallace
ST (3): Mare, Ryan, Houser
Practice Squad: Moore, Bumpus, Morrah, Ramsey, Bennett, Philistin, Adams, Greene
I hope he’s right on Mare but fear the team favors Cuotu despite his limp-dick kickoffs. I will still be surprised if it’s Kent over Obo. If Bennett keeps playing like he has, he may get vultured by another team if they try to sneak him onto the PS.
You and me both
Though Laury is more valuable on special teams. It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out for Atkins, Bennett and Laury.
by lemonverbena on Aug 27, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm interested in the long term in addition to winning this year
and if it’s a close call between Atkins and Bennett, I’d prefer youth over experience. Neither should see much playing time anyway, barring several injuries, and I think Bennett’s upside is higher. As pointed out above, he probably won’t stick to our practice squad. I’m wondering if Atkins might have trade value. We took him in the 4th round in 2007 draft. I wonder if we could get our third rounder back next year.
I've been thinking about our defensive personnel and what 2010 could be
I’d love to see us draft a stud DT in round 1 (Suh, McCoy) and move to a 3-4 with the front 3 being Mebane/Cole/Suh, the linebackers being Hill/Tatupu/Curry/Reed and the DB’s Trufant/Babs/Greene/Wilson.
It's an interesting idea
…but we’ve got needs at RB, QB and S, and I’d prefer to see those addressed first.
Agree with you about the other needs
I’d like the DT with our first pick, RB (Spiller, Dwyer) with our second first round pick, and then S, CB and O-line in rounds 2-7. I prefer Spiller for his return skills and big-play threat, provided Jones is still good for half the carries. I’m hopeful that Greene develops at S to relieve some of that need, and I’m hopeful Jennings puts it together this year to relieve that pressure. Not confident of either. With Sims and Spencer both UFA after this year, O-line will need attention, but Ruskell has said they feel they can get zone blocking guys in middle rounds, and Locklear is already being paid left tackle money, so while I might like Okung or Williams, I don’t see that happening. That leaves QB. I’m not a fan of high 1st round pick on QB, particularly if Hasselbeck remains healthy and has 2-3 more years in the tank. Hopeful that Teel develops, he certainly has the arm.
The other thing is that we've got a lot of depth in our D-line.
Switching to a 3-4 would render that less advantageous….but I suppose we’ll have to see how big an advantage it really is. One more reason I can’t wait for the real games to start!
Plus our LB corps
Should already be pretty well set up with Curry in there. As effective as the 3-4 seems these days, why create the need for another good starting LB when the front seven are this solid?
Glenn Beck likes argument, but has a deap-seated hatred for logic.
I don't know if we'd have a need.
Tapp, Kerney, Reed could all fill in, plus Herring and Hawthorne are both great backups I think.
Not to mention o-line and CB.
We have to do something in the next offseason to address the lack of depth.
It's Great to be a Florida Gator!
by Wayward Llama on Aug 29, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
If Cole is our NT, I'm not so sure...
Why not either use Red Bryant as our NT OR draft Terrence Cody. Here’s the problem, with a top 5 pick, we can get a QB, a NT, a DT, A LT, a S, or a RB I suppose (probably use our 2nd pick on that if we had to). Would you rather get McCoy/Suh/Cody/Bradford or Berry? I’d rather get the sure thing in Berry if he’s there (and it would be at a position of need), and address LT or CB or something with our 32nd pick.
Also instead of Reed, shouldn’t we have Tapp starting (assuming we resign him?) or Kerney (is his contract up yet and would he make a great 3-4 OLB or a bad one?)
The only problem with your thought process here...
is you are chalking Berry up as a sure thing.
There are no sure things. Ever. And there have been quite a few highly drafted safeties to not be tremendously impactful players. Michael Huff being the most recent off the top of my head, but don’t blame that all on the black hole— guy wasn’t a reach when he was picked 5th overall…
I personally want a DT or LT, just because I believe you win the war at the line, you win the war…
Arguably the two best players in Seahawks history came from the top of the draft and the inside of the trenches, with ‘Tez and Big Walt. Let’s repeat the process once again, and go big!
Please, for the LOVE OF GOD, stop suggesting next year's 1st round pick (or picks) be used for Taylor Mays and or a QB of the future. Let's just let the season unfold, people, and evaluate much deeper in the process!!!
by Tyler Jorgensen on Aug 31, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure thing to be better than what we have.
Personally I think of Berry as more of LaRon Landry, but to be perfectly honest, I’ve only watched one Tennessee game and I don’t recall him being a super stud.
After the draft, I thought out two biggest needs would be DT and S, and I don’t want to jinx it, but it looks like if Cole is adequate, and Red is headed to where it looks like he might be headed, DT might be a position of strength for us in the next few years.
LeRon Landry is...
in some circles, nearing “bust” status himself, as least in the same way Chris Spencer is. Perhaps “bust” might be too strong a word, but “disappointing” would certainly qualify.
I agree DL COULD be fine, and by the time the draft rolls around, we’ll have a season of knowledge to work with, but then you really can’t have too many good-great DL (See, Giants, NY.)
And I’m not dead set against getting Berry (or Mays for that matter) I just know all things being equal, I would rather have my line (O or D) bolstered more than my defensive backfield. But I would say an elite talent on the O Line is ALWAYS a need, if it is available… big if of course..
Please, for the LOVE OF GOD, stop suggesting next year's 1st round pick (or picks) be used for Taylor Mays and or a QB of the future. Let's just let the season unfold, people, and evaluate much deeper in the process!!!
by Tyler Jorgensen on Sep 3, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Agree completely
When I evaluate our skill at the various positions, I believe we are well below avg at RB, below avg at the second CB spot, Safety and O-line, and only avg at D-line. WR and QB are above avg and LB are well above avg. Therefore, given need and positional value, high 1st round pick must be CB or O-line, with late 1st and 2nd round picks on either of those 2 not addressed with pick 1, or RB, S or D-line.
The problem is, this is expected to be a very strong draft for D-line and Safety (not CB), and I can’t see passing up on the next Tez (Suh or Jones) if they fall to us. Best player available aside, since we can’t see that now, I’d hope to see a draft where we trade down from one of our 1st round picks to regain our 3rd rounder, and that looks something like Suh (DT-Nebraska), Spiller(RB-Clemson), Asamoah(OG-Illinois) and Coleman(SS-LSU) with our top 4 picks.

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