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Seattle Seahawks Shadow Season: Learning to Hate the Denver Broncos

Seahawks fans haven't had the joy of rivalry in a long time. The NFC West as we know it has only existed since 2002. During that time, it's been consistently one of the weakest divisions in football. The Seahawks have dominated it. Winning the division four times, compiling a .643 winning percentage, and so consistently stomping its NFC West rivals, compiling an even more dominating .678 Pythagorean win percentage*. That's what happens when you never lose by more than 17 points and win by 20 or more points 12 times.

So there hasn't been much rivalry to speak of. San Francisco was supposed to be Seattle's rival after 2006, but Seattle responded in 2007, crushing them 47-3 over two games, and crushing Alex Smith under Rocky Bernard. Maybe now the Cardinals are Seattle's rival, but the two teams have never been good at the same time. Most Seahawks fans house more enmity towards the Pittsburgh Steelers than the Cardinals. A fact that was clear this last Super Bowl. Despite the fact the Pittsburgh was only incidentally culpable for Super Bowl XL.

Much to everyone's delight, an old foe has returned to supply a rivalry like no other in team history: the Denver Broncos.

Yes, the Denver Broncos. A team that has dominated Seattle even more than Seattle has dominated the NFC West. Few teams have ever been as despised by Seahawks fans as the Denver Broncos. They owned the Seahawks. John Elway's charisma converted wayward Seattle fans. They played in a beautiful stadium with prestige and character. Seattle played in the Kingdome. They competed in the playoffs and won two Super Bowls. Seattle drafted Dan McGwire and Rick Mirer.

Finally Seattle has a shot to make a comeback that will put 1995 to shame. The Broncos traded their first pick in the 2010 draft for Seattle's 2009 second round pick. That's right. And it's probably gonna be good. Maybe you're a Massey-Thaler guy and think getting a good pick is its own kind of curse. Not for a team that needs premium talent at left tackle, quarterback, defensive end and defensive tackle, because there's bricklayers and there's gladiators, and in the arena it pays to be elite, not consistently above average.

Star-divide

Projecting a team's record might not make the best analysis, but for the sake of fun, let's have a go. Pro Football Prospectus projects Denver to win 4.9 games in 2009, and gives the Broncos a better chance of winning three or fewer games (27%) than seven or more games (23%). Denver was a little lucky last season, so that's part of their regression. They played a very easy schedule last season and will play one of the toughest schedules in football this season. Denver also was not very good in the first place (See AFS and FO). But the real reason Denver is likely to crumble is it traded Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton. Not literally, but effectively. Cutler is one of the best young quarterbacks in football. Orton is a journeyman that defied expectations and was mediocre last season overcoming the sub-Grossman, neckbeard standard he had set.

The Broncos are going to tank, and Seahawks fans will glory in their failure.

+ + +

Any NFL fans knows that the quarterback is important. How important? I thought this quote from Brian Burke was instructive.

In theory, good a run defense should make a pass defense better. And the stats suggest it does. The correlation between defensive running efficiency and passing efficiency is 0.20. Some of that correlation has to do with the fact that superior defensive athletes are superior against both the run and the pass. But some of it should also be due to the game theory aspect.

(In comparison, offensive running and passing efficiency correlate at 0.13. I think the difference is that there is a lot more variance in offensive passing than in other facets due to the focus on a single player’s ability. The quarterback’s contribution is so critical to passing in ways that aren’t applicable to the other aspects.)

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Roflmao

John you’re my hero “awww the DENver BRONCOS!?”

Glenn Beck likes argument, but has a deap-seated hatred for logic.

by Cheddar28 on Aug 6, 2009 4:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Too bad we don't play them this season.

Orange Crushed.

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Aug 6, 2009 4:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Man those Simpsons bit were good

And I’m all for it!

I never liked the Broncos much, though I admit my recent dislike was fueled by Cutler, who’s just an obnoxious primadonna.

Watching them this season should be fun. The Jarvis Moss lullopalooza was even kind of amusing, even though I hate seeing talented young players go through that kind of mental anguish (unless they’re Vince Young)

by Vasilii on Aug 6, 2009 4:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

To be honest

I couldn’t stand the Broncos at all unless I picked them to win.

When the Chiefs had Priest Holmes and Trent Green and Dante Hall I was always rooting for them to beat up on the Broncos.

Denver will enjoy not having an offense led by an average QB with a coach in over his head lead them through 16 games of hell.

Come January Mike Shanahan will be laughing his ass off.

"And Joe for Matt Hughes, dislike may not be a strong enough adjective!" - Mike Goldberg

by SSreporters on Aug 6, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come January October Mike Shanahan will be laughing his ass off.

I doubt it will take all season for these guys to show just how far they’ve regressed. AWESOME point regarding the swap in draft picks, perhaps two Top 5 draft picks in a row? Let’s just hope it remains at 2…

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."

- Ferris Bueller

by war_capitals on Aug 7, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm so psyched

That at least 12 teams will literally be beating a dead horse.

"And Joe for Matt Hughes, dislike may not be a strong enough adjective!" - Mike Goldberg

by SSreporters on Aug 6, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well 12 times but you get the point

"And Joe for Matt Hughes, dislike may not be a strong enough adjective!" - Mike Goldberg

by SSreporters on Aug 6, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking

that the pick wouldn’t be that great because people a terrible team isn’t enough to get a top 5 pick. That is because 9 games into the seasons when the bad teams are out of the playoff hunt, that is when the Rams, Raiders, etc. start TOTALLY tanking it so that they can get Bradford or some other stud. Will Denver do that, knowing we have their first rounder?

I thought no.. but now that I have thought more about it… The Broncos will still want their other picks to be as high as possible. Also, they will want to evaluate young players.

I think a #1 or #2 pick is very unlikely… but top 5 is very possible and I doubt the pick will be higher than 10.

by michaelfox99 on Aug 6, 2009 5:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Even if the pick is as high as say, #15

(Not that the Broncos are looking better than 14 other teams at this point). That’s still pretty valuable right? I mean we paid a small price for it.

But what about cap room? Two first round picks is pretty pricey isn’t it? Especially if one of them is top 5.

Glenn Beck likes argument, but has a deap-seated hatred for logic.

by Cheddar28 on Aug 6, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Er disregard second statement.

4 teams had two first-round picks this year heh.

Glenn Beck likes argument, but has a deap-seated hatred for logic.

by Cheddar28 on Aug 6, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, you're right.

Curry and a top 5 pick next year would be costly. Maybe not this year, but by 2012 we’d essentially have two guys making $8 or so million per year in the second half of their contracts.

by LantermanC on Aug 6, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s when Ruskell bundles one or both 1st round picks in a trade for a REAL difference-maker. He may as well, both the established veteran we’d get back in the trade and the picks themselves would cost an arm & a leg? I’d prefer the 4th-5th year stud veteran that has proved he can shine at the NFL level over an overpaid understudy?

I’d be curious to hear from greater football minds than mine on who the ‘Hawks could go after in such a scenario? I’m not up on all the contract expirations (which may have something to do with who they’d possibly target).

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."

- Ferris Bueller

by war_capitals on Aug 7, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

n00b alert : ]

My bad, some folks rely on them heavily and some don’t and Field Gulls clearly does by looking around.

/trying to play nice in the sandbox

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."

- Ferris Bueller

by war_capitals on Aug 7, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some 2010 UFAs:

RB: MJD, Willie Parker, Darren Sproles
OL: Chris Snee, Marcus McNeill
DL: Luis Castillo, Adewaka Ogunleye
DB: Dre Bly, Ellis Hobbs, Deshea Townsend

I spent 5 minutes looking at the overall list. Not too many studs out there in 2010.

by Airborne Hawk Guy on Aug 7, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I forgot to add the actual point of all this...

…that trading would probably yield a better player compared to the UFA list.

by Airborne Hawk Guy on Aug 7, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a fan of WIllie Parker

but I’m probably the only one.

Glenn Beck likes argument, but has a deap-seated hatred for logic.

by Cheddar28 on Aug 7, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

At the very least,

We should all RESPECT the guy after that 75-yard bolt through our D in the Big One?

I’m with Airborne though on this one, there are far better players to trade for should the ’Hawks end up striking gold in Denver with that trade. What a meltdown!

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."

- Ferris Bueller

by war_capitals on Aug 7, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nah.

Fast Willie isn’t much of a back. That run was thanks to Etric Pruett.

by jacobstevens on Aug 7, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh. I couldn't stomach seeing any members of that team in blue.

And Willie Parker is fast, but can we please get some youth, not pick up guys who are already 5 years deep with bald tires?

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Aug 8, 2009 4:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The real prizes on that list, Snee, McNeill, and Castillo

will likely not make it to free agency. And wasn’t MJD’s contract extended?

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Aug 7, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know of any team that has perpously tanked it just to get a high draft choice

Maybe there’s some actual evidence out there to support that claim, but I really don’t think that’s ever been the case.

by B.B.Finnegan on Aug 6, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teams don't do this...

that’s “Madden Talk.” We do it in video games, but teams don’t do it because A) the players have a level of pride that your “Simulation” of the last 4 weeks of the season don’t. B) coaches/F.O. like their jobs, and losing leads to getting fired.

What teams DO do is very similar to what we did last year. Did we give up? No. But we didn’t “Go for it balls out” either. We just kinda played, in a conservative “keep it close” atmosphere… But I really don’t believe teams do that. Hell, look at the Mariners last year. They had every reason in the world to throw the last couple games and get Strasberg, but instead they just played, just like they always do…

Please, for the LOVE OF GOD, stop suggesting next year's 1st round pick (or picks) be used for Taylor Mays and or a QB of the future. Let's just let the season unfold, people, and evaluate much deeper in the process!!!

by whiskey chainsaw on Aug 7, 2009 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I loved the clips, hilarious.

I think we have a pretty good rivalry with the Raiders, even after the division realignment.

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Aug 6, 2009 5:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I liked Mike Shanahan...

…but now that he’s gone I have no issues taking great pleasure in the demise of the 2009 Denver Broncos.

/maniacal laugh
//twiddles fingers

by Airborne Hawk Guy on Aug 6, 2009 5:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

me too

bayless leaves over my dead body
andre miller>hedo

by thomasikehara on Aug 7, 2009 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kick. Ass.

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."

- Ferris Bueller

by war_capitals on Aug 7, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was pretty great.

I live in Columbia, SC. It’s about an hour from Charlotte. Since moving here, I’ve a grand total of TWO Panthers logos. One was a hat and the other was a front license plate. You know what I see instead? Steelers. Every day, I see at least 10 vehicles with Steeler paraphernalia plastered on them. This is truly a city of bandwagoners. I hope it’s not this bad everywhere, but the typical example of this attitude was when I was talking to this douche who works with my wife.

“Well, the Steelers are looking good this year, guess I’ll root for them.”

I just looked at the dude. I guess he doesn’t realize that true fans of a team hate, HATE fairweather fans.
I’ve heard that Bronco fans are kind of namby pamby like that.

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Aug 7, 2009 5:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Namby Pampy indeed....

There are some great hard core fans here, I’ll give them that. I’m very good friends with a few of them… I’ll even pop in at Mile High Report from time to time when one shows me a link… and I also acknowledge I (and everyone here) fall into the “crazy rabid” part of fandom, so I don’t fully hold things against people if they don’t…. but…. just ugh.

And there is orange and blue everywhere, I’ll give them that too… but, the weather in Denver changes daily, and so does the vast majority of the fan base’s interest in the teams.

You should see them… the biggest event of the year in Denver is— no joke— opening day in baseball. The whole town goes nuts to party downtown. However, nobody even remembers the game, LOL. 1 series later, the crowds are basically completely gone. And when the Rockies made that HUUUGE run, suddenly it was “a baseball town” and everyone was talking about the team and yet, the very next year there just wasn’t a lot of black and purple to be found… and this year, everyone was suddenly a Nuggets fan. Which is another gripe. The Nuggets don’t really have fans. So of course, the one thing they do all know about Nuggets lore is that God Damn Robert Pack/Mutombo bullshit short series we lost… so I used to get that all the time.

Although, I react (semi)irrationally now when the NBA is brought up, and they know I’m not going to take that shit so they don’t bring that up anymore. I clamp down, IMMEDIATELY. I start foaming at the mouth and they become afraid my hatred for David Stern will manifest itself onto their own personage…

Please, for the LOVE OF GOD, stop suggesting next year's 1st round pick (or picks) be used for Taylor Mays and or a QB of the future. Let's just let the season unfold, people, and evaluate much deeper in the process!!!

by whiskey chainsaw on Aug 7, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

That was awesome

Douchebaggery, assholiness. Bravo!

I live in Boise and these BSU fans are just as rediculous. Moving away from Seattle and the truest fans of the ‘Hawks has been one of the hardest things to deal with in my life. Maybe that’s sad, but it’s true.

I’ll say this; it’s never been hard for me to hate the Broncos, but this year I will love ’em. Love ’em for how much they suck. GO ’HAWKS! and GO “TEAM” (v. Denver every week).

by Jo-Jo on Aug 7, 2009 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great rant.

FWIW, one of my best friend’s is a Broncos fan, and he hates their situation.

by LantermanC on Aug 7, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great rant.

Loved every second of it.

A friend of mine is a Bronco’s/Nuggets fan, and we give each other shit all the time. Which really sucked last year, but once the Bronco’s collapsed, then they screwed up and lost Cutler, and then they dealt their 1st round pick, he got very quiet. It’s baffling how badly they screwed the pooch on that whole situation last year. I’ve never seen a new coaching staff so thoroughly, and so quickly, dismantle any hopes a team had to compete next year. And I’m loving every second of it, knowing that pick is looking to be very very sweet.

by Fear on Aug 7, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does anyone ever recall/know when it last happened that a team ended up trading away what became the #1 pick in the draft? I suppose I should qualify that by saying they gave it up a year before they knew they had it? I’m stumped, can’t think of a single time it has worked out like that…

It’d be pretty awesome if the ’Hawks were the first to slide into that spot.

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."

- Ferris Bueller

by war_capitals on Aug 7, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The closest I can think of is the Falcons

The draft after they went to the Super Bowl, they swapped a future 1st for a mid 2nd, and drafted a back-up TE or something. Of course Jamal Anderson blows a knee, the Falcons tanks, and it would up being a top-5 pick.

by jteckmann on Aug 7, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dislike for Denver

I don’t have to learn to dislike them. I’ve disliked them ever since they signed Mr. Ed. He was to good to play for the team that drafted him.

by seer#1 on Aug 7, 2009 7:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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