Seattle Leads NFC West in VOA and DAVE

by John Morgan on Sep 29, 2009 3:29 PM PDT

Seattle is still listed as above average despite losing two games. The Seahawks rank 13th overall, 12th in DAVE, 22nd on offense and 9th on defense. That confirms what I touched on in my last post, that Seattle has the same record, but is outperforming the 2008 Seahawks. The pass defense is powering this team, a pass defense that has played games without many of its best pass defenders. Marcus Trufant has missed the entire season. Lofa Tatupu has missed two games. Josh Wilson has missed a game and a half. Brandon Mebane has missed one game.

I am not going to pretend the difference between this season's pass defense and last season's pass defense is Brian Russell, but another much reviled figure has left Seattle in better hands: John Marshall. Seattle is blitzing less and blitzing more effectively this season and Jim Mora and Gus Bradley deserve credit for that. The Seahawks have been a good pass defense with upside, and close to average at most other things. It's a pass defense and Seahawks team with upside, but downside too. The Colts are by far the best pass offense Seattle has faced. They are first in the NFL in VOA. If Seattle steps up, next week, when VOA becomes DVOA, the Seahawks defense could look like a defining unit. If Seattle crumbles, DVOA will coldly adjust backwards, informing us that San Francisco and St. Louis were worse than we thought, and the Seahawks and the Seahawks pass defense, worse than we think.

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Go us.

Jackson & Redding are a part of it, too.

by jacobstevens on Sep 29, 2009 4:01 PM PDT reply actions

Good thing we got rid of Russell early...

…or Bradley’s new D might make him look more competant than he really is.

by djafrot on Sep 29, 2009 9:36 PM PDT reply actions

funny comment, but we're not better because Russell is gone

I’m glad Russell is gone; good move. But as JM inferred above, the difference cannot be attributed to Babs starting in place of Russell. Babs has not been that impressive to me. Our defensive line is what is dramatically better. Tapp, Mebane, and Jackson are better than last year. Kerney, Redding, and Cole give them players they didn’t even have. These guys give me hope!

And I hate to say it, but when Deon Grant flattened his own team mate while Hester caught the ball and sped past them both for the winning touchdown, I could have sworn I was watching Brian Russell’s ghost.

"Football players are temperamental. That's 90 percent temper and 10 percent mental." - Doug Plank

by Stevo's on Sep 30, 2009 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions

It's still VOA at this point, not DVOA (meaning it's not adjusted for opponent)

And let’s be brutally honest here, that makes a huge difference. 2 of the Hawks three games have been against two of the worst passing teams in the NFL so far, and even the Bears passing offense is not all that impressive.

I’m willing to bet that if the numbers could be defense-adjusted the Hawks would be below average so far. In fact the sample sizes are so small Niners and Hawks could swap places if they had just swapped week 1 opponents.

I realize you mentioned it was still VOA, but you seem to be implying that the numbers show Seattle in a good light. Given their opponents, I don’t think that is really the case. And DAVE is still mostly based on FO’s preseason projection at this point, making it nearly meaningless for showing how well any team has played so far.

by Brendan Scolari on Sep 29, 2009 10:08 PM PDT reply actions

Opponent adjustments make some difference.

Very often it make a negligible difference. The further from the mean, it makes more of a difference than I believe is truly warranted. For instance that San Diego team a few years back (was it 2005?) that was so frequently referred to as possibly the best team to miss the playoffs. They faced tough opponents and flashed brilliance and sometimes looked like the better team. But the strength of opponent was overstated, they were an inconsistent team that made a lot of gaffs in between the brilliance, especially on defense.

by jacobstevens on Sep 30, 2009 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions

That all being said

Every estimated strength of schedule that is weaker than Seattle’s so far, is ranked above us. As opponent adjustments come in, I’m very confident they’ll continue to show as slightly above average, because they’ve played slightly above average and they are a slightly above average team.

The 49ers and Bears aren’t as bad as they’ve played so far, and the Rams have faced one of the tougher schedules. There’s very little chance that eventual opponent adjustments of any percentage strength will drop our play thus far to below average with those counter-measures sure to be factored in.

by jacobstevens on Sep 30, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Maybe if we perform better we'll be 0-3?

Just kidding guys. This team is much better then last years version. I do credit that to one exit and not two. John Marshall is gone and Gus Bradley is in. Mora for Holmgren has yet to play out, or should I say Holmgren for Mora/Knapp. After Mora’s tirade I give the edge in press conferences to Coach Holmgren. I think having a healthier set of WR’s has really helped even though were depleted everywhere else. We have though upgraded our defensive depth and that has shown in the 1st 3 weeks. But again, that can be attributed to Big Gus Bradley to. He’s winning me over. I can’t help it. He’s not Ray Rhodes to me yet but he’s slowly climbing the ladder.

by Mr. Blache III on Sep 29, 2009 11:09 PM PDT reply actions

You liked Ray Rhodes that much?

He motivated his players to be aggressive to make up for his remarkable conservativeness. I think John Marshall was better than Ray Rhodes.

by jacobstevens on Sep 30, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions

"The pass defense is powering this team"

C’mon, it’s only been three games. One was against an awful team, one against a conservative team, and one against a high profile QB who just had his best game of the year. Can you really tell?

Seattle’s first and third best corners are out, its second best is gimpy, and one of the safeties doesn’t know what he’s doing. I always hope for the best, but I’ve quite prepared myself for the worst this coming Sunday.

by Santolina chamaecyparissus on Sep 30, 2009 11:28 AM PDT reply actions

This is basically what I was trying to say.

by Brendan Scolari on Sep 30, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions

+1

We’re also playing without our MLB (who’s not horrible in coverage) and a pretty good run-stopping, QB-rushing OLB in Hill.

Mike Wahle(OG), Walter Jones(LT), Chris Spencer(C), Marcus Trufant(CB), Deion Branch(WR), Sean Locklear(OT), Brandon Mebane(DT), Leroy Hill(LB), Lofa Tatupu(LB), Josh Wilson(CB), Justin Griffith(FB), Matt Hasselbeck (QB)

by ninjasocks on Sep 30, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions