Be Joyful! Olindo Mare Beat Out Brandon Coutu
by John Morgan on Sep 9, 2009 8:45 AM PDT
23 comments
Say what you will about Tim Ruskell's pride, but not many general managers would admit a mistake in such a transparent and demonstrative fashion. That's what he did by releasing Brandon Coutu. Coutu did not miss a field goal over two seasons and eleven attempts. He hit from 52 yards. He hit from 48 yards. He went five for five in his second professional game including the game winning kick from 36. But Coutu could not kickoff to save his job.
It wasn't a mystery. Anyone with access to the internet and the will knew Coutu wasn't Thunder Leg at Georgia. See:
Olindo Mare will beat out Brandon Coutu.
I wasn’t fond of the Coutu pick and I think he’s the Hawk’s most precarious player. So far, all I’ve heard about Coutu’s performance is explanations: Nerves, inexperience—BS. I think the kid’s lost a few ticks off his fastball. His senior season his kickoff average plummeted to a Mike Vandejagt-like 59.0 and he notched only one touchback, but 3 kicks out of bounds. I expect Mare to completely outclass the rookie.
So it took some humility by Ruskell to release Coutu, because, if only tacitly, it admits that he underestimated the value of kickoff distance. How valuable is it?
Back to touchbacks. Using the concept of Expected Points (EP), the average point value of a first down at each field position(see graph below), we can estimate the nominal value of a touchback. The 20 yd line represents 0.1 EP, and the weighted average of the distribution of non-touchback field position is 0.9 EP. That's a value of 0.8 EP per touchback. (This includes turnovers and penalties.)
Sacks are worth 1.7 EP, so a touchback could be considered the equivalent of about half a sack.
Brian Burke is wispering into your ear "Olindo Mare was worth 11 sacks in 2008."
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We also didn't kick off much in 2008...
as we didn’t score much. How many sacks will Mare be worth in 2009?
by michaelfox99 on Sep 9, 2009 9:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ruskell "underestimated the value of kickoff distance" ?
If you mean Ruskell underestimated this when he drafted Coutu, then I guess I agree with that. But, I think by cutting Coutu loose and keeping a 36 year old kicker instead, Ruskell clearly showed just the opposite – that he does indeed value kickoff distance and touchbacks.
It seems reasonable to me that Seahawks scouts believed Coutu’s kickoffs would get longer as coaches worked with him as a rookie. I am still pretty surprised that didn’t happen, given his strong leg on FGs.
by Stevo's on Sep 9, 2009 9:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Will the new special teams rules change the value of a touchback?
A four-man wedge used to be allowed on kickoff returns. Now it is illegal, and only a 2-man wedge is allowed. Ostensibly, this is to prevent injuries.
I’ve heard opinions on both sides, with Clayton saying we could see longer returns. Others say KRs will be brought down more quickly without the wedge. That sounds right to me, although its hard to imagine the NFL allowing a new rule that could cut down on big plays.
by Stevo's on Sep 9, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of wedges, I'll never forget seeing...
Mike Sellers plow into the South Kitsap wedge, just destroying it in the opening kickoff of the greatest high school game I ever saw, with the North Thurston Rams defeating the 4th in the nation (USAToday) South Kitsap Wolves in 1993.
That may have been the best wedge a high school in the state of Washington ever had, as it had 2 future NFL’ers, Benji Olsen and Tony Coats spearheading it. Even though he initially made his NFL career on special teams in the NFL, in high school Big Mike never played kickoff coverage units except for that game, and only in that game because stopping that wedge was a key to having a prayer of beating SK. On the opening kick, Sellers beat everyone else down the field and went airborne just collapsing— check that— destroying the wall. The sound of the hit was LOUD in the stands and the tone for the game was set.
Mancrushed. Jake Locker for Heisman 2010.
by whiskey chainsaw on Sep 9, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That sounds incredibly badass.
I wish I saw that.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Sep 9, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The two-man wedge or a 4-man wedge is going to be irrelevant when the kick is still consistently kicked well into the end zone.
My .02, of course.
If the ball kicked short of the end zone more often than not, then I’d say that it would shorten Mare’s value as a touchback kicker, regardless, because less kicks are actually reaching beyond the endzone.
Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.
by Carl Shinyama on Sep 9, 2009 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My impression when they drafted Coutu
Is that he was best kicker available at that slot and kicker was something we needed to solidify. Picking up a proven vet and a raw rookie, somewhere in the middle we were going to have a kicker.
Mare had just had a horrible season as the Saints kicker, and was injured and we didnt know if he’d be any good ever again. Once the balls starting flying, Mare looked okay, did fine, but I was totally okay with keeping Coutu in case Mare turned into crap again.
I’m okay with using that pick to ensure SOMEONE could kick, I think this was all handled just fine.
Both kickers got every opportunity to succeed at no real risk to the club.
Could we have carried someone else all last year? Yes, but another developmental player that wouldnt see much field was the least of Holmgren’s concerns, compared to making sure he had a kicker.
by Strictnine on Sep 9, 2009 10:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If we didn't pick Coutu, there's a pretty good chance we'd pick PS fodder
While the roster implications of carrying two kickers sucks (losing Forsett was a kick in the nuts), I think Ruskell did the right thing. First, he addressed the need before the draft with a cheap vet. Then, he made a value pick with upside. In order to address injury concerns (for both Mare and Coutu), he kept both guys around so that we would have some ST continuity (he might have learned something from the LS problems of the past). In short, he did everything he could to get the issue addressed without expending too many resources.
Brett Favre is the Kenny Powers of football.
by ninjasocks on Sep 9, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
never thought of it that way
but there is some logic to the injury concern factor…
Mancrushed. Jake Locker for Heisman 2010.
by whiskey chainsaw on Sep 9, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This move, along with the release of Brian Russell, makes me far more optimistic about the season than I was previously.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Sep 9, 2009 11:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah? I was always pretty optimistic.
Then again, after 4-12, going anywhere is somewhere. I’m just a little worried that I might get TOO optimistic. I fully expect us – should we stay healthy – to win the division… anything past that is gravy.
But yes, I agree that moves like this and Russell are a sign that TR is paying attention. Maybe he’s reading these boards?
by djafrot on Sep 9, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and if the season goes really bad...
We might have the 1 and 2 picks in the draft!
by Strictnine on Sep 9, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yessir!
Ruskell seems to have almost completely transcended ego. I don’t think he fears for his job at all, or at least very little. I doubt that ownership has any intention of bringing Holmgren back for anything other than the Ring of Honor.
On another note: Morgan, you are kicking ass.
by lemonverbena on Sep 9, 2009 3:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
An eleven sack kicker.
I know it makes sense, and field position matters, but I still feel really dirty typing that.
by B.B.Finnegan on Sep 9, 2009 1:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's fun to write it
and it certainly is impactful, but sacks are representative of overall pass rush. Mare is like an end that subs in 11 times, records a sack each time and never plays another down.
by John Morgan on Sep 9, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to try this on Madden 10.
I doubt it will work, somehow.
by djafrot on Sep 9, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A touchback also reduces the odds of runback for TD to 0%
Which is nice
by lemonverbena on Sep 9, 2009 3:30 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, there's a reason a kickoff specialist like Rhys Lloyd has found himself a place in the NFL.
It’s also why I’m perplexed the Oakland Raiders have never signed an accurate veteran placekicker — such as John Carney — and transitioned Sebastian Janikowski over to kickoff and long-distance field goal duties.
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
by AK1984 on Sep 9, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
John Carney, you say?
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Sep 9, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Between John Carney being back with New Orleans and a former UW Husky in Jerome ...
Pathon scoring the touchdown that preceded the infamous missed extra point, there’s a lot of crazy history there.
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
by AK1984 on Sep 9, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really really like...
the idea of the offense always starting on their own 20… then going 3 and out, and we get the ball back on the 40 yard line or better frequently…
Mancrushed. Jake Locker for Heisman 2010.
by whiskey chainsaw on Sep 9, 2009 2:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This flew under my radar somehow, I'd completely forgotten to check who won the kicker battle
I’m very happy to see it was Mare.
by Nate Dogg on Sep 9, 2009 4:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like this take as well as the EP link
I take issue with a couple of the points in the EP article, but at least one seems very interesting…
The author of the EP article states in the comments section that our villain’s first and 10 from their 15 has no better chance of scoring than just handing us the ball at ours.
One thing that is underestimated when talking about touchbacks is also the probability of the return man bringing it out and being stopped short of the 20.
With Mare at least that is a realistic possibility. With Coutu, he’d need a can of Crisco and a prayer.
by trippsixxes on Sep 10, 2009 12:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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