From Atop the West to the Super Bowl
by John Morgan on Oct 25, 2010 4:40 PM PDT
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PrintThis isn't 2005.
No, it's 2010.
This team will not come together and dominate like the 2005 Seahawks.
No, but a different kind of formula could lead them to their second Super Bowl berth.
Step One: Repair the Run Defense
It's not entirely clear why, but run defense is the single most important factor for a team winning a playoff game. Run defense is more important than passing offense, interception rate, even home field advantage. Brian Burke, who conducted the research, attributes the surge in the importance in run defense to the timidity of coaches. He thinks coaches may rely on the run too much in the playoffs because their innate desire to avoid losing -- that is, in a psychological sense, avoid disaster even at the cost of opportunity -- increases as the stakes increase. That's possible, but I think his other explanation might be more likely: weather.
Football is a different game in the elements and playoff football is played in the cold, the rain, the snow, the wind, the forces that weaken the passing attack and increase the relative importance of the run game.
Through the first five weeks of the season, Seattle had a top five run defense by about any measure. Seattle faced an assortment of scenarios: big leads that forced opponents to abandon the run; deficits that encouraged coaches to run out the clock; and pass wacky coaches that just couldn't help themselves. Through it all, Seattle turned opposing rushing attacks into double agents that sabotaged opponents from within.
That didn't happen yesterday. Should we pin that all on the shoulder's of Brandon Mebane? I know people get a little tired with the praise I heap atop Brandon. I do my best to make it clear why Mebane is not considered an elite talent by most, his limitations, his failures, but I also cannot deny a simple, obvious truth: Mebane makes the run defense better because he occupies two blockers, and that modest seeming ability is in truth very rare.
Over the next few weeks, we will learn whether Seattle is dependent on Mebane for its excellent run defense, and if it even has an excellent run defense or it's just good. But if it does, don't underestimate its significance. The NFC West is the Seahawks to win and once they earn themselves into the playoffs, that run defense transforms from lesser component of a good team to the absolute most vital ability to making a playoff run.
Step Two: Capture Home Field
While we were busy keeping our expectations in check and bemoaning a good team that looks nothing like a contender, we may have missed that Seattle is tied for the second best record in the NFC and has the second easiest schedule of remaining games in the NFC, behind only the 1-6 San Francisco 49ers.
The Seahawks are not blowing teams out. The Seahawks are not a great team and probably do not have the potential to become a great team, but the Seahawks are a good team in a year filled with mediocre to good teams. Now, maybe some team will improve over the rest of the season and become a standout contender. That's always possible, and though this post is dedicated to rational optimism, I do not think that team will be Seattle. But if Seattle remains only good, and the NFC remains a conference of good but no true great teams, then home field advantage can make a sizable difference in the Seahawks chances of making the Super Bowl.
Among evenly matched teams, home field advantage is most important. That means that as long as Seattle is good enough to make it, good enough to earn a record and capture home field advantage, that accomplishment could then allow Seattle to have a sizable competitive advantage against other equally good or even superior opponents. A couple weeks ago I said that it didn't matter if the Seahawks beat the Bears, because the Seahawks could probably win the West regardless. Well, the Seahawks did beat the Bears and that win seems very important now, because if Seattle can take advantage of its remaining weak schedule, it could very well finish with the best record in the NFC.
Step Three: Stay Healthy
One reason football is so very hard to predict is that a team never repeats itself. Ability changes as health changes and a regular season juggernaut can crumble as its players' health crumbles. The Seahawks have seemed very cautious with their player's health, and with a clear path to the playoffs before them, that might be just short of brilliant.
The Giants and Cardinals have proven in recent seasons, a team does not have to be a great regular season team to be a title contender. Rules change in the playoffs. Run defense surges in importance. Teams stop trading off home field advantage and that means a soft schedule and an impressive record can turn into a postseason advantage. Teams change in the playoffs. Some limp in, their best games behind them. Some protect their irreplaceable players and come alive during the postseason run.
A team doesn't have to be a great regular season team to be a successful postseason team, and with the way 2010 is unfolding, the construction of this team, its ability to crush opposing rushing attacks, and the overall mediocrity of the rest of the NFC, it's realistic that the Seattle Seahawks, without having the talent of a great team, can become the greatest team in franchise history.
Every single game for the rest of the season matters. This team needs to win and win. This team needs to prove its mettle as a run defense. This team needs to improve relative to its competition by staying healthy as its opponents crumble. Because Super Bowl runs are always improbable, that's what makes them special, but when one can begin to see the path from so far off, well, we can savage ourselves for flirting with hope and so soon thereafter facing failure, we can agonize because it's so improbable as to seem painful to consider, but we can't deny that for a second we knew hope. No one can deny that the wildest, most homer-leaning projection of the 2010 Seahawks potential is not only possible, it's founded in fact.
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After week 3, when I realized we could actually take the West...
The first thing that popped in my mind was home field advantage. If we can somehow, by some miracle, get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, then we’ve got a great shot to become the third team in a row to go to a Superbowl coming off of a non-playoff season
Split Seahawks/Texans fan. Don't like it? Don't care.
It's nice to break the ice on the Superbowl/Playoffs talk.
Got me pumped John. Okung’s health could also turn out to be key given the way the O-line looked after he left the game. At the beginning of this season I was completely apathetic and had no hope for this team. Now I’m more excited than ever.
"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."
It wasn't until recently that I allowed myself to believe that we could win the West.
Call it cautious optimism, but I wasn’t ready to allow myself to do that until yesterday, knowing that we have a good chance at winning the NFC West.
Now I have to start considering a bye week?!? I don’t think my heart can handle that.
Seriously though, the conference is vulnerable and the schedule is easy. I’d like to see the offense be a bit more consistent/dominant, but the addition of Marshawn and the maturation of Mike Williams means that we are a better offense today than we were in week 1 and that’s pretty cool.
Woohoo for founding in fact!!
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion... Over the Hawks that is. May they reach unadulterated glory and earn the metonym of "Phoenixes".
Is it selfish of me to not want a first round bye
so that there can be more glorious playoff games in our quest to reach the Big One?
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion... Over the Hawks that is. May they reach unadulterated glory and earn the metonym of "Phoenixes".
Selfish AND foolish
Home field > an extra chance to lose
For your information...
If Seattle’s probability of winning a home game is H, and the probability of winning a road game R…
Then the average number of playoff games would be:
Division title only: 1 + H + HR + R^2H
2nd Seed: 1 + H + HR
1st Seed: 1 + H + H^2
The team with home field advantage wins about 60% of playoff games. But Seattle is particularly unbalanced home & away, so I think reasonable numbers would be 65% home wins and 35% road wins. So far this century, we’re 4-1 at home and 0-3 on the road in the playoffs.
With that,
Division title: 1 + .65 + .65*.35 + .65*.35*.35
= 1 + .65 + .2275 + .079625
= 1.96 games
2nd seed: 1 + .65 + .65*.35
= 1 + .65 + .2275
= 1.73 games
1st seed: 1 + .65 + .65*.65
= 1 + .65 + .4225
= 2.07 games
Of course, you can juggle the numbers to get whatever result you want, and I didn’t bother to account for the situation Arizona faced in 2008 (backing into home field for the Conference Championship). But I think the ’Hawks are so strong at home that the general pattern is the same: A #2 seed will give us fewer games than a #3 or #4 seed, but nothing beats a #1 seed.
by Jason_D on Oct 25, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 11 recs
This is why I don't do math.
Let someone else do it. Thanks, though this is awesome! Aaaaaaand………….rec’d.
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
I consider myself a science guy
But I’m lost here on what you are trying to do. I’m not sure it makes sense to me.
Also, in your division title math, you are to square R and multiply by H, but you squared H and multiplied by R.
Double-check... no, it's correct.
Also, in your division title math, you are to square R and multiply by H, but you squared H and multiplied by R.
I have it down as…
Division title only: 1 + H + HR + R^2H
The “1” is obvious. The first “H” is the probability of a second game. The “HR” is the probability of playing in the conference championship (requiring one home and one road win). The last “R^2H”, which should have been written “HR^2” to avoid confusion, is the probability of playing in the Super Bowl (one home win and two road wins).
Plugging in .65 for home wins and .35 for road wins,
Division title: 1 + .65 + .65*.35 + .65*.35*.35
That last term is .65*.35*.35. So I did square R (.35) and multiply by H (.65). Again, I transcribed everything out of order, so it might look like it’s off, but it is correct.
But I’m lost here on what you are trying to do. I’m not sure it makes sense to me.
Let’s say the Seahawks win the division title without a bye for 100 years in a row. Right away, that gives us 100 home games.
We win 65 of those. That gives us 65 more games (divisional round), all on the road, for a new total of 165.
Out of those 65 road games in the divisional round, we win 35%, or 22.75 games. That gives us 22.75 more games, all of them conference championships, for a new total of 100 + 65 + 22.75 = 187.75.
In those 22.75 conference championships, all road games, we win 35%, or 7.9625 games, which means we play in 7.9625 Super Bowls in those 100 years. The final talley of games played is therefore 100 + 65 + 22.75 + 7.9625 = 195.6825, which means the average per year is 1.956825, which I rounded to 1.96.
The math is easier if we are the #1 seed for 100 straight years. We start with 100 divisional round games, we win 65 of those, and therefore play in 65 conference championships. We win 65% of those 65 games, which is 42.25 games, which is the number of Super Bowls we play in. The grand total of post-season games is therefore 100 + 65 + 42.25 = 207.25, or about 2.07 per year.
Can we do this on Whitehurst's back?
I want to see what he can do as much anybody but I just don’t think Clipboard Jesus will take us to the Super Bowl. Can we trust Hass to last that long? Do we want Hass to last that long? I can’t wait for the coming weeks to see how this all plays out
I really think this is the biggest question of all.
I wasn’t worrying about it a few games ago, but all of the sudden I’m thinking long-term and Matt’s health is a concern.
It’s not that he looks anything other than healthy this year. It has more to do with the fact that in between the mild mess that is the offensive line and his proclivity for sitting in the pocket too long, for Matt to make it all the way through sixteen games plus playoffs seems optimistic.
In my uneducated opinion, it would be pretty damned prudent to get Charlie in for a few drives as soon as we can. Obviously this only happens if Matt completely tanks for a couple of quarters or we go up by twenty heading into the fourth… so, not sure how good the chances of this happening are.
This is the question that's been haunting me as well
There are some really conflicting thoughts around this.
by Hawkhammer19 on Oct 25, 2010 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
We're winning with Matt.
With Charlie being an unknown, I say ride Matt into the ground (in the nicest but winningest way possible), and start Charlie no later than week 16.
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
Based on CW warming up during Matts "performance"
I would guess that win or lose the coaching staffs patience is running thin with him. I don’t think PC would use that as a motivational tool unless he was actually ready to do it.
We are winning with Matt, but we are winning with good D, good special teams and not losing on O. Matt isn’t losing games for us, which is a good thing.
Will Okung be back in time for the Giants game?
Because the Giants have knocked five QBs out of commission for at least part of the game or longer. Cutler. Todd Collins. Shaun Hill. Romo. There was a 5th, but I forget who.
by sideshow bob on Oct 26, 2010 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I was thinking that same thing
that NY Giants game is looming, for me, because of their dominant pass rush. It could very well result in our first glimpse of Whitehurst and play a major part in how we do the rest of the season.
I think the 5th QB might have been Matt Moore at Carolina.
Two of those QBs
were behind the Bears offensive line.
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
I love Matt, and remain optomistic but...
Didn’t Brady take over for Bledesoe in the playoffs and never look back? Could we be that lucky?
I know who we can rely on in the clutch
Hint: He forced a fumble that led to our only TD.
Michael Robinson leads the Seahawks in completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, and QB rating.
He didn't force any fumbles.
Michael Robinson leads the Seahawks in completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, and QB rating.
What about Okung?
Not many quarterbacks can protect their own blindside.
by Cannonater on Oct 25, 2010 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't.
With the numbers he putting up “well below average.” Why hasn’t he been benched yet. We keep on getting rescued by our special team, or the defense. That can only last for so long. Sick of watching highlights of other QB around the league throwing THE LONG BOMB for TDs. While our starting QB is have the toughest time completing a 5 to 10 yard pass.
I always chalked up Mora's second and third years in Atlanta to Atlanta's rash of injuries
Perhaps it had more to do with Mora demanding toughness and players to constantly play through injury when they shouldn’t be?
Carroll’s ability to see the big picture, or just simple respect for a players health, or even realizing that a player playing at 50% on an injured ankle is no better then his backup, or all of the above, might, indeed, be, brilliant.
Way off topic, but...
Did anyone see Mora on NFL Network last night after Wade Phillips’s press conference?
Wade looked really beat down and broken, for obvious reasons, and when they cut back to the studio, Mora blurted out that it wasn’t Wade’s fault. “This is a great football guy, from a family that has done so much for the NFL. He’s going through really tough times, and I want people to remember that.” It was a true and innocuous statement, until I started reading it through the lens of Mora’s Mora-ness.
He actually also said explicitly the players were to blame (as opposed to, not just in addition to, the coach), and that they made “5 times as much money” as the coach. Google search tells me Philips makes about $3 million/year.
I did see that.
I hate him as an analyst. Half of the time someone says something he responds with “I take offense to that.” and then goes off on some tangent about how hard coaching is and how Phillips/Coughlin/etc. is a really great person.
Mora = Mute button.
He’s as bad of an analyst as a coach and a real jerkoff to boot. Speaking with authority on the Tampa-2 made me laugh. That’s like Brian Russell being an authority on pass-rushing.
Start Charlie Whitehurst. / #24 = Beast Mode! Welcome, Marshawn
Wow, looking at the schedule, this team has a good shot for NFC home field advantage.
Barring a disaster (see above, regarding Matt’s health), this team could very easily go 10-6 or 11-5… or better.
Bandwagons are free, you only need to hop on!
And the cool aid is delicious.
by John Edwards on Oct 25, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
AHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!
Meaningful football has been gone for so long that this post actually stresses me out a little bit. I’d kind of forgotten what it was like to need to win games, to have every game be a must win and winning only making the next game more important. I’m jacked, amped up, stressed and freaked the fuck out a little.
I can’t wait for Oakland.
Oakland
is putting me on eggshells, even though I think we’ll match up well…. aahhhh.
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
I think it's prudent to be wary of a team that put up 60 points on a team that beat us
A healthy dose of realism and pragmatism is good for a team that shouldn’t get too high on itself yet. This team’s gotta figure out what Denver did wrong, and address it.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Early turnovers put them in a hole
I’d love to not do that. Kind of reminds me of how we lost to AZ last year with the picks and Griffith fumble. Very very difficult to respond to that on top of stopping DMC. We have to beat down their running confidence.
by Stay Off the Flowers on Oct 26, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Looking at how they won, and looking at the matchup,
I would be surprised if we lost. The matchup is more suited to us than the 49ers. The 9ers turned out to be just bad all on their own, but anticipating that they were division title contenders, I felt there was a good chance we’d beat them even if they were a better team.
In 7 games, the Raiders offense has SEVENTEEN fumbles, but have only lost 2. And remain +1 in TO differential despite very poor QB play. Matt might’ve turned a corner with Carroll’s ball-protection emphasis approach to the game, but even while he remains a turnover liability (especially on the road), we’re not inherently vulnerable on either side of the ball to lose to Oakland in that fashion.
by jacobstevens on Oct 26, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Heartening to hear that Okung's injury is a 1st-degree sprain
Because even though the Seahawks have the so-called second easiest schedule in the conference, they need the Big Boy very badly as they hit the toughest stretch of the season:
at Oakland
NY Giants
at Arizona
at New Orleans
3-1 in those games is possible but 2-2 would still get them to 6-4 and likely still leading the division. After that they finish with four of the last six at home. I think a first round bye is attainable. Rose-colored glasses optimistic, but in a beat up, shallow NFC, absolutely attainable.
Good to see John has joined me
in thinking BIG about the 2010 season… I floated the Super Bowl notion last week on my own blog:
http://davekriegsstrikebeard.blogspot.com/2010/10/here-comes-feeling-you-thought-youd.html
Of course, John’s work trumps mine in detail and quality. Well done!
My blog: Dave Krieg's Strike Beard
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Oct 25, 2010 5:40 PM PDT reply actions
Nice props dude
Looking forward to your Seahawks Beat the Raiders post.
Efren Herrera is my spirit animal
Here's something else to consider
The Seahawks host both the Giants and Falcons this year, two of the three 2-loss teams left in the conference (they also play at Tampa Bay). If they win those games, that would give them tiebreaker advantages over a number of contenders. Honestly, with the way New Orleans is playing, I’m not sure there’s a game on the schedule I’d consider a sure loss. Not that they’re going 14-2, but 12-4 seems possible.
I'd rather know a little about a lot than a lot about a little
Yup
Having NYG, ATL, and TB on our schedule could be HUGE in terms of HFA tiebreakers… We’d only really have a problem potentially if we end up tied with GB, PHI, or some other team we haven’t beaten head to head… I doubt ANY NFC team will be better than 11-5… Eleven wins + tiebreakers should get #1 seed in NFC
My blog: Dave Krieg's Strike Beard
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Oct 25, 2010 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Atlanta will be 12-4 (maybe better)
They’re that one team I think we’ll be chasing all year.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
Playing them at home in the playoffs would be really difficult. Matt Ryan is awesome at home.
It’d sure be nice to stomp them in the regular season.
This Is IT
Because the Falcons have Destination: Dallas; RE: Super Bowl stamped all over their ass in my opinion. They look like a contender, smell like a contender, and have just enough silence to from the sports media (still talking about Favre’s junk, why the Cowboys aren’t winning, concussions, or another Steelers/officials gaff) to be the dirty bird in the grass. And they come to Quest. As do the Giants.
It may not be 2005, but the Giants finished 11-5 that year to our 13-3, losing here (with half a dozen or so false start penalties) 24-21, a game that in hindsight cost them homefield advantange. The optimism is justified, but there are some severe challenges between now and then and lots of Pepto.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
I picked ATL
to win the Super Bowl in preseason…
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2010/8/31/1660255/dksbs-indisputably-accurate-2010
hope I am proven wrong!
My blog: Dave Krieg's Strike Beard
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Oct 25, 2010 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions
It's good to dream...
But as much as I would freaking love for this to happen, it really seems premature to think Super Bowl. Just keep winning games. When they reach 10 wins, then we’ll have something to talk about.
Very true
Only have to look back at Holmgren’s first year, when the Hawks started 8-2 and Kitna looked like a viable starting quarterback.
by lemonverbena on Oct 25, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Kitna and Romo.
Two quarterbacks who will do just the right thing at the right time to lose their team the game.
The Cowboys might not win another.
This is where I'm at:
guarded optimism.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Oct 25, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
What kind of post is this?
This doesn’t seem to fit on a site for one of my teams. I usually have to travel to a blog of a team that I hate to get my dose of optimism. It’s nice to actually look forward to following my team on a Monday and Tuesday again. If this keeps up…. we might even play on a Monday in the near future.
Okay.... I'm in.
If 5-2 Hawks are playing 5-2 Giants for top spot in NFC in two weeks
… Fox will go with 1-7 Detroit at 2-5 Dallas for “America’s Game” … Cowboys coming off a home win over Jacksonville will be dubbed as “rejuvenated” under Kitna.
Storyline after Giants are demolished at Qwest…. The Giants are not as good as we thought they were, and sure the Seahawks are 6-2, but who have they really beaten?
Sorry… I know I’m getting way ahead of things here, but I like to have my bitterness all lined up and ready to go ahead of time ;)
by nucleard on Oct 26, 2010 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
You must tell me how you got a transript of the Football Night in America broadcast two weeks before it airs.
Is it possible to hate the national sports media more?
Dare to dream.
Honestly, if this team goes 3-1 or, dare I say it, 4-0 over the next four games, I’ll start to dream big. I do like that this post is a legitimate discussion piece, though.
If they run @OAK, NYG, @ARZ, I will pee myself in excitement and start talking smack about revenge on the Steelers, in that order. Or hell, maybe I’ll just do those things at the same time and economize my time a bit.
This is where I'm at.
Cautiously optimistic, but if they do manage to go 3-1 or 4-0, then it definitely looks like the team is for real.
by splintrdmind on Oct 25, 2010 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Even if Matt plays like he did yesterday?
Hmmm…
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
SOOOO STOKED
It is a damn exciting time to be a Seahawks fan! Bring on da Raidahs!!
by Woodinville_12thMan on Oct 25, 2010 6:01 PM PDT reply actions
He and Jennings might practice as early as Thursday
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Oct 25, 2010 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm excited to have Mebane back.
But am I the only one who’s found Thurmond to be a breath of fresh air opposite Trufant? He’s made some mistakes, but the Arizona game in particular was very impressive.
If you want to win the Super Bowl, chances are you need to be the lower seed.
So I think #4 might actually work out for us.
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
Sorry what I meant to say is that we need to be wearing our white jerseys for a better chance to win the Super Bowl
Away teams (White Jerseys) has been 6-2 in the Super Bowl since the division realignement:
Whites (Bold = Champs)
02: Oakland
03: Carolina
04: New England
05: Pittsburgh
06: Indianapolis
07: New York Giants
08: Pittsburgh
09: New Orleans
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
Here.
02: Oakland
03: Carolina
04: New England
05: Pittsburgh Seattle
06: Indianapolis
07: New York Giants
08: Pittsburgh
09: New Orleans
Fixed
by Hopefulmsfan on Oct 26, 2010 2:05 AM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
Let me fix it again
02: Oakland
03: Carolina
04: New England
05: Pittsburgh Seattle Referees
06: Indianapolis
07: New York Giants
08: Pittsburgh
09: New Orleans
by J.L. White on Oct 26, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Might want to strike through the AZ game as well...
Just sayin’, one team caught some calls that game too, and not shockingly it wasn’t an NFC West team.
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Oct 26, 2010 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
We'll Have To Buck The Trend Then
Doesn’t the home/away designation just alternate between the AFC and NFC from year to year? The one exception was 2005 (really 2006) when Pittsburgh declined to wear the home jerseys because they’d won all their playoff games on the road.
So, the NFC team this year will be the “home” team regardless. Guess we’ll just have to buck the trend!
Hope still >> Expectation
Honestly, I’m still in a spot where I am semi-expecting the other shoe to drop and this team to revert back to what I thought it would be at the start of the year. The team is better then it was then, but not much, and whether it be coaching or just pure voodoo in my opinion it is currently playing better than the sum of its parts.
So I enjoy talk of this nature, it is part of being a fan to have higher highs (and lower lows) then objective reality should allow, and I hope that it all comes together in a perfect storm of happenstance.
But if it is true that this team is already at the upper end of it’s range of possible performances, then I think winning the division is a more realistic aspiration, and I am happy that even that is more than I hoped for at the beginning of the year.
I know you say Seattle probably won't be the team to rise up and become a standout contender and I agree.
But it’s not out of the realm of possibility. We’ve seen the talent on this roster and because many of them are so young, it’s probable they get better as the season goes on and this team hasn’t met it’s true potential yet. It could also go the other direction but I just feel that by the end of this season, the Hawks will be playing their best football while other teams are fading.
I was looking for this point!
I totally agree. The Seahawks aren’t good. But they keep winning anyway. Mr. Happy mentions after every game how far we have to go. How much we have to improve on. And he’s right. But we keep winning!
If Okung is back full strength for the Giants game and has another confidence boosting performance against a great pass rush and Lynch and Matt have awesome games because of it, that’s good. If Matt and BMFMW keep building their rapport and Mike starts drawing consistent double teams, that will free up other receivers and allow Matt to spread the ball around like he likes to do when he’s hitting on all cylinders; that’s good. If the run defense continues to look good, and the pass defense catches up, that’s good too.
Yes! If we keep getting better and keep winning while we do, we could be primed to be pretty dangerous come playoff time. Add home field advantage to a team just starting to play its best football and a trip to Dallas is totally possible.
(Do you think Romo has bought tickets yet? Do you think that he’d still go if it was the Seahawks who were out there?)
The Giants' stats look really good...
Is their offense really that dangerous, now?
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
Eli's still good for a couple INTs.
Especially at his favorite stadium.
by Hopefulmsfan on Oct 26, 2010 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions
When I saw Raheem Morris proclaimed TB as the "Best team in the NFC"
it made me chuckle, but the more I thought about it the more it gave me pause.
Thats when it really struck me that Seattle and TB are just as much in that discussion as NYG, GB, ATL and Philly. Pair that epiphany with actually going to my first Hawk game in five years yesterday and I am right about ready to Explode with excitement for this team. I’M IN!!
SEA!
We're really rather lucky
that GB has been so crippled by injuries.
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
Oh no doubt
But honestly it is really enjoyable being on the other side of a team being crippled by injuries. The year we lost our top 6 receivers to injury got kind of silly.
I like the hopeful feel to this.
But the losses to Denver and St. Louis still resonate with me. I’m guarding my optimism for now.
Start Charlie Whitehurst. / #24 = Beast Mode! Welcome, Marshawn
Denver: Interceptions.
St. Louis….yeah that’s disconcerting. It begs the question: Were the Rams the only legit defense we’ve faced thus far?
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
Arizona is legit in my view
and Denver at home is tough tough. I think they’re a much worse team than the Jets but were able to almost pull it out because of that.
by Stay Off the Flowers on Oct 26, 2010 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Arizona with Hall-Anderson legit?
Define ‘legit’…I’m confused. Rarely are teams legit when the most important position on the team is comprised of horrible QBs.
Start Charlie Whitehurst. / #24 = Beast Mode! Welcome, Marshawn
Their defense is what he was referring to.
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
Ah, you're right.
My bad.
I’m not sure about Arizona, but the Rams defense has looked good (I’ve watched other games of theirs besides the convincing win against us). Honestly, I’m not sure how the Rams are doing it. I can name about three or four players on their defense who I know are good. After that…?
Start Charlie Whitehurst. / #24 = Beast Mode! Welcome, Marshawn
I am 100% fine being the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals
I am also 100% happy if we finish better than 8-8, it’s all gravy.
Use the subject line
or someone will sick Towely on you.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Oct 26, 2010 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions
oops, hit return instead of tab....
John,
This post gave me some chills. I’m starting to get that “feeling” that I had in ’05 when I knew that team was something special. I am a HUGE proponent of home field advantage. I keep telling my co workers, watch out for the ’Hawks, They have that vibe at home just like they did in ’05. No one believes me.
I’m not as technical in my knowledge as you are about packages and the things you write about. But, I do know how to watch a football game and I do know the ’Hawks tendencies. For instance, when BMFMW caught the TD, I was pissed at the first pass attempt, I wanted Beast Mode. But, I knew there was another pass coming. I yelled at first until I saw BMFMW come down with it. I felt kinda foolish.
This is not the Matt that I’ve been accustomed to. I wither at every pass attempt. I know he’s had success in the red zone. Something just seems off with him. Most of these slants that he throws it seems like they are just getting there, it seems more luck than anything. I’m afraid the law of averages are going to pop at at the most inopportune time later on in the season, and BAM!! pick sixes all day.
Just some of my observations.
SEA!!! HAWKS!!!
PBA wannabe!! Keep Michael Saunders in left!!! Russel Okung is my new man crush!!
by seanchristopher on Oct 26, 2010 6:25 AM PDT reply actions
No way you're flying solo on your excitement, brother. You say SEA!!!
We say HAWKS!!!
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
Two things stand out to me comparing this team to the 2005 run.
At least on Defense.
In 2005 I believe we led the league in a few things on D. The most notable were Sacks and Red Zone percentages.
This year so far we’re 11th in the league for sacks, and 3rd in the league regarding red zone %. Add in this new wrinkle.. #2 against the run and something special is definitely brewing.
2007 proved that we don’t need elite corners to make it deep into the playoffs. and 2005 proved that we need good safety depth (The moment we lost our free safety Marquand Manuel was the turning point in that game.)
Add in the fact that we actually have a running game. Can you remember when you would circle teams that were weak against the run and know that Seattle was going to put up 100+ yards? I remember drooling over the possibility of that Houston game where you just knew Shaun was going to run for 100+ and put up at least two TD’s.
With BeastForce I Have the same feeling. I think we will see at least 100+ combined out of those two all season against moderate run defenses and more against the weak run D. I think it will be a major factor when facing stiffer competition such as the Giants, Saints, and Atlanta.
I’m excited. If we win 9 games this season is a success. If we make it to the playoffs then the season starts all over again and anything can happen.
Go Seahakws!!
Shouldn't the philosophy be........... to not overuse or overtax Lynch?
Is it merely a coincidence that since the trade for Lynch, that the Seahawks are 2-0? (first winning streak of the season) It stands to reason that Lynch immediately makes our offense better. However how would the offense perform without him? – Scary thought right? Forget all of your beliefs about a running back needing to dominate the stats categories (especially from the biased perspectives of fantasy football owners). Forsett and Lynch performed well at Cal when they were deployed together. Lynch in the line-up (as thought) has opened up our passing game, even if it’s only to BMW. Our team is at its best when it plays with the lead. Lynch and Forsett will be great at moving the chains and eating up the clock. Also if they’re splitting carries it reduces the wear and tear on each of them. I’d also like to see Leon Washington receive 3-5 carries a game. I hope that all the progress we’ve made over the past couple of weeks in the run game isn’t negated this by Robinson having sustained an injury. Do we even have a back-up fullback?
I'm just as excited as the rest of ya'll.... but I'm still nervous about our schedule.
Much of our “easy” schedule is based on the crappiness of last year’s teams. It’s clear now that the Raiders, Chiefs, Rams, and Bucs, are NOT the same teams they were last year. Those “easy” games are no longer easy.
By the same token, a handful of games (Arizona, New Orleans) are not going to be as hard as we expected but I still think the difficulty pendulum has swung a bit farther towards “oh shit” than we expected.
The combined records of OAK, KC, STL, TB are sitting at 14 – 12 for a 54% winning percentage. Last year those teams had a 20% winning percentage. That’s a big difference.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
The Bucs will probably beat us.
Th Chiefs are good, but the matchup favors us. The Raiders’ matchup favors us. The Rams are good but have had trouble winning. The matchup didn’t favor us well. More likely to beat them at home.
Despite the Saints’ woes they’ll probably toast us. Falcons, too. Giants might crush us. But if a 5-2 team takes the field with thousands thinking the game could have ramifications on postseason seeding, it could be closer, like the 2005 NYG & DAL games, 2 teams that outplayed us that we beat at home with playoff atmosphere.
by jacobstevens on Oct 26, 2010 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting. Not completely unrealistic. But definitely premature.
First, the Raiders just clobbered their opponent. Clobbered. What say we sit on a 3 game winning streak before we start talking Superbowl? I mean, sure, even an SB-bound Hawks team is likely to lose 2-4 more games — and the Raiders game could be one of them — but if we don’t look so regal with losses to the Broncos, Rams and Raiders on our resume.
Next is the Giants game. This one is huge. The Giants will be a force in the NFC this year. They’re knocking out Quarterbacks left and right (this should be a big concern for Seattle when we play them) and they have tons of playoff experience. If the Seahawks beat the Giants then I will truly believe they’re legit. Further, it will provide a tie-breaker against a likely high NFC seed.
We definitely need Okung back for the G-men.
They are a force on the line.
by Stay Off the Flowers on Oct 26, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Raiders game is big
The win in Chicago notwithstanding, I think we should still always realistically expect this team to lose games played out of the Pacific time zone. Tampa is still not dominant, and New Orleans has clearly taken a step back, but I still hate it when the Hawks have to travel to the far corner of the country to play a morning road game.
If we take care of business at home (7-1 or 8-0), then we can pick up wins at Oakland and at San Francisco, and perhaps AZ, to go 11-5 or 12-4.
Boy it’s fun to speculate about WINNING!
On the plus side
The New Orleans game, from what I’ve seen is an afternoon game. (4:05 PM EST, according to ESPN) so that has to help a little bit. I’m still nervous about the game, but at least it isn’t a morning one.
by splintrdmind on Oct 26, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I want to believe this, but our last win was UGLY
We didn’t look like a contender at all against the Cardinals. Plus I can’t help but think that by the end of the season a few NFC teams will have seperated from the pack – teams with solid QB play.
Personally I’m amped up about our excellent coaching staff and bright future. I don’t see us going all the way. But you’re right – we have a shot. And that’s a beautiful thing.
I'm a fan of the Ducks, Seahawks, Trailblazers, and... this elephant.
I'm in the same boat. The only "convincing" win so far for me is really Chicago
I love my Hawks, but still have trouble seeing more than 8 wins this season. I will happily jump on the bandwagon after a few more strong performances. Until then, I have been burned too many times. Hope is so easily crushed in Seattle (unless you are a Storm fan)
The Niners win wasn't convincing enough for you?
And I liked the Cardinals win in the sense we won with strong defense and opportunistic turnovers, rather than getting lucky with a few kick return and hail-mary touchdowns. It wasn’t the blowout it should have been, but it was satisfying none the less.
We had the benefit of huge turnovers for both division wins
Not saying you can’t sometimes make your own luck, but mark me down right here and now that I don’t think we will get 4-5 turnovers the next time we play the Niners or Cards. We play both of those teams on the road next time, where we have historically played like dog poo.
My expectations have been raised for this team slightly, but I still am having trouble seeing the Hawks as a legitimate threat in the playoffs. We may make the playoffs due to our crummy division, but we still have far too many holes.
I think the Q&PM are doing a fabulous job building, preparing, motivating and coaching the team, and have definitely exceeded most expectations, but this recent talk of SuperBowl is a bit premature, in my not so humble opinion.
It is like that friend we all have going back to that bad girlfriend. Dude! She’s only going to break your heart! Don’t do it!
Sincerely, Donnie Downer, Mr Pessimist
If it's any consolation
all the top teams in the NFC have “ugly” wins. The Giants almost let John Kitna beat them last night when they were up by 20 points at one point (it’s also worth noting that 3 of NY’s 5 wins have come against 1-5 teams…) Tampa BARELY got past the Rams on a last second TD. At HOME. Atlanta squeaked by the 49ers by 2 points. Again at home.
Those ugly wins are what lay the foundation for playoff runs.
The 2008 Cardinals were a play or two away from winning the Superbowl
and they played a lot of shitty games, backing into the playoffs after winning a shitty division.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Oct 26, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
They had the fundamental ingredient that we don't.
A red-hot QB that could pick apart any defense on any day.
inside of a dog it's too dark to read.
What, you do not like a luke warm
QB that can pick any defense apart for 1 or 2 series a game?
by Spin Forever on Oct 26, 2010 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I disagree.
We looked like crap and still won. To me a contender is a team that wins, even ugly, especially ugly. If you can stink it up for a whole game like we did Sunday and still win, and then come out the following week and play well and win…well…that’s a contender :)
Anyone could've beat that Cardinals showing.
The “ugly” was completely a function of oft-inept, sloppy offense. Playing bad and still winning does not make you a contender with competition like that.
And we rocked, and they said that we rocked, and they rejoiced, and there was much rejoicing. Seahawks astride the division at 4-2 and gunning for the lead in the conference. Look out Rodney Harrison.
I love this team right now and I'd love to believe that they were Superbowl bound but I
still hold the taste of futility of the last two years in my mouth. The one thing this team needs is a strong running game. To have that, the O-line needs to run block. We haven’t seen that consistently yet. A strong run game will cover for a weak QB.
John Hancock
Just gargle some of the kool-aid
….or jungle juice. Either way, it tastes better than futility.
by Stay Off the Flowers on Oct 26, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Well one thing is sure.
The run defense will be tested this Sunday.
The raiders...bah!
The Raiders just scored their allotment of points for the season. They will not score another touchdown all year.
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