Chiefs at Seahawks Game Thread 2

Second half adjustments get a lot of lip-service, but what does it mean? Here's a shot in the dark:

Every defense has a weakness and it wasn't hard to estimate the weakness of the Leo defense: insufficient pass rush on neutral downs and runs off the edge. It's easy to scheme against a four-man pass rush when one player is disproportionately responsible for the pass rush, but Seattle has survived because most teams in the NFL run on first down to set up play action. So Seattle stuffed the run early and set up blitzes in passing downs. What if a team decided to pass on first down? Could Seattle survive?

First down outcomes by play type:

Pass: 14 yards, incomplete, 7 TD, 8, 10, 8, 11, 36TD, incomplete

Run: 4, 27, 4, 2, 4, 0, 3, 4

Not a dominant effort by the run defense, but workable. Runs of four yards are actually worth negative expected points, but I have a hard time seeing them as unsuccessful. The pass game though, holy crap. Seven of nine for 94 yards and two touchdowns is beyond bad. It's legitimately untenable, and the Chiefs have moved the ball at will.

That other potential weakness, runs off end, has shown up too:

Runs listed as off end: 4, 0, 3, 23 (Cassel), 4, 27, 12, 2, 7, 0, 4

The offense hasn't been grand. The special teams have kept Seattle alive. The defense has been horrific, and unless Seattle wants to be embarrassed (again) on their home turf, adjustment absolutely must be made.

And I don't know exactly what those adjustments are. More blitzes on first down? More Lawyer Milloy in the box? Less Chris Clemons at Leo end? I don't get paid the big bucks to figure this stuff out, but somebody better or this game is all over except for another excruciating 30 minutes.

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