Post Your Hawk: Week 15

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 16, 2010 8:00 AM PST

Atlanta Falcons (11-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)

Atlanta Injuries: John Abraham DE (Groin, DNP Wed.), Jonathan Babineaux DT (Shoulder, LP Wed.), Tyson Clabo OT (Ankle, LP Wed.), Curtis Lofton LB (Knee, DNP Wed.), Stephen Nicholas LB (Knee, LP Wed.), Jason Snelling RB (Hamstring, LP Wed.), Roddy White WR (Knee, DNP Wed.), Coy Wire LB (Head, LP Wed.)

Seattle Injuries: Chris Clemons DE (Ankle, DNP Wed.), Matt Hasselbeck QB (Wrist, FP Wed.), Roy Lewis CB (Knee, DNP Wed.), Olindo Mare K (Hamstring, DNP Wed.), Benjamin Obomanu WR (Hand, FP Wed.), Chris Spencer C (Shoulder, LP Wed.), Brandon Stokely WR (Hamstring, DNP Wed.), Walter Thurmond CB (Hamstring, DNP Wed.), Mike Williams WR (Ankle, FP Wed.)

I don't think last week went as any of us thought it would. A lot of us picked the Hawks to lose, but not get blown out. Is this the most frustrating team we've seen in the last decade or so? Even the 4-12 and 5-11 Hawks weren't as frustrating as this year's version. The offsides penalties, the godawful tackling, the horrible play calls on 4th-and-1, etc...

I don't think there are going to be many positives that come out of this game. Just looking at win-loss records, this game is a mismatch. Looking at the other numbers and, well, this is a terrible mismatch. The one thing the Hawks do well is return kicks, and Atlanta's strong special teams unit will probably not allow the Seahawks to gain much of any advantage from their return unit.

My Hawk this week is Jon Ryan. He tries his damnedest to pin the Falcons in their own territory. He manages to drop three punts inside the Falcons' ten yard line. Unfortunately, the Seahawks' defense doesn't hold up their end of the bargain, and allows TD drives on two of those three beauties of punts. The Falcons win this one easily, 35-10. The misery continues.

Nice job to BeaverBird for picking Deon Butler to have a nice game. Once again, Surf Hawk is leapfrogged me in the point prediction competition. I've started sorting the spreadsheet by "Adjusted Average" now. This new number reflects throwing out the best and worst weeks you've had predicting in an effort to normalize many of the outliers. Here's the link to the spreadsheet: Link.

Sea...:(

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Comments

Neon Leon

Leon Washington will get ample opportunities and will have 180 return yards and take one to the house.

Falcons spank us 44-10

by rossco17 on Dec 16, 2010 9:22 AM PST reply actions

Hmm

Michael Robinson runs for a TD and throws for one on a trick play.

Hawks win! 14-13

Its finally happened.

by Scruffy Lefty on Dec 16, 2010 10:35 AM PST reply actions

Putting all my chips in.

Matt Hasselbeck, 19-30 211yds, 1 TD 1 INT

But he moves the ball, the running game rises from DOA to cancer patient, and we capitalize on two rare Falcons turnovers, borne of complacency and good pass rush. UPSET! Hawks 26 (4 FGs) Falcons 24.

by jacobstevens on Dec 16, 2010 11:08 AM PST reply actions

Obo.

110 yards and a TD. 75 of those yards and the TD come early in the third quarter when the game’s already out of reach. Hawks lose, 37-17.

by thebyron on Dec 16, 2010 3:09 PM PST reply actions

BFMW

11 receptions, 145 yards. No touchdowns sadly. Falcons destroy the Hawks 38-13 but Mike and Obo make some awesome grabs.

This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.

by Cheddar28 on Dec 16, 2010 4:05 PM PST reply actions

Beast Mode

We go up early on a Thomas pick 6, and run the ball down the Falcons throat.

Lynch 26 carries, 160 yards 2 TDs.

Seahawks 31-10

by grinch11 on Dec 16, 2010 9:46 PM PST reply actions

Curry has 3 sacks, 7 solo tackles and plays like we expect him to. He jumps the line in special teams blocks a field goal, tipping it to himself and running it back for a TD.

In this fantasy, we’re getting beat 30-0 at the half when Nick Reed enters the locker room and says suit me up coach. We play bandit all second half with Nick occupying quintuple teams leaving no one to protect Matty Ice from the wrath of an unblocked Curry. Our defense scores 42 points in the second half and is so effective that our offense punts on first down. Matt Ryan goes deaf from the noise of the 12th man.

by hawksfan1401 on Dec 17, 2010 5:48 AM PST reply actions 3 recs

This does seem to be the most likely scenario.

by thebyron on Dec 17, 2010 7:00 AM PST up reply actions

The Seahawks as a Team!

For reasons unknown, I feel the hawks are going to come through with a win…crazy. Can’t pick just one player, so here it goes: Defense= 3sacks 2 ints and 1 fumble recovery; Offense= 1 rush TD (126yds) 3 pass TD (302yrds) 1 turnover; ST= 1TD Punt return and great field position all day. I think I started drinking to early….

Hawks 38-17

by bonecruncher on Dec 17, 2010 9:29 AM PST reply actions

Force.

24 carries for 140 yards and three TDs. Hawks win 35-7.

by Coach Owens on Dec 17, 2010 10:27 AM PST reply actions

Matt's wrist is hurt on the first play. Whitehurst comes in and the game of the year is on.

Seahawks win 51-45 in OT. Whitehurst is my hawk 33-52 374 yards 4 TD’s 1 int.

by MFAN on Dec 17, 2010 12:32 PM PST reply actions

Leon Washington

I trust no other player.

Seahawks 18, Falcons 31

by Surf Hawk on Dec 17, 2010 12:39 PM PST reply actions

As for scoring

This is your contest so I can just shut my trap, but the reason I think dropping the 4 worst weeks is a good idea is because you are also letting 4 games be missed. So let us say we are coming up on a tough to predict game (I know they are all bi-polar this year so this example isn’t that great), someone could just skip the prediction for that week and keep their average good. Also, throwing out the best week, are you crazy? Glad my job doesn’t grade me out by throwing out my best work!

by Surf Hawk on Dec 17, 2010 12:42 PM PST up reply actions

That's a good point about somebody skipping a week intentionally.

I was perhaps a little optimistic in hoping that people would view this as a fun exercise, and not get too competitive over it. However, throwing out four weeks of data seems an awful lot, especially if you have someone who has picked the minimum (12 games). Now there are potentially only eight data points from which to draw the average.

I’d feel more comfortable if we only dropped the two worst weeks if you don’t like the idea of throwing out the best and worst weeks.

If anybody else wants to chime in on this, feel free. This is the first time we’ve kept track of the scores this way, so I’d appreciate some alternate ideas.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 18, 2010 9:24 AM PST up reply actions

This has been fun.

I have spent way too much time coming up with predicted scores and witty player projections.

I was extremely proud of my seahawk/cardinal score which was only 2 off. I would hate to lose it, even though it was a fluke compared to the rest of my crappy predictions.

by Farrell on Dec 19, 2010 12:35 AM PST up reply actions

Russell Okung.

Dominating.

Falcons 38-17

It's STILL great to be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Dec 18, 2010 3:07 AM PST reply actions

Obomanu

5rec for 18 and a TD. With the Falcons focusing on BMFMW who ends up doing the dirty work of moving the chains, Obo is free to pick up large chunks of yards.

Hawks play closer than anticipated, but still fall to Atlanta 28-17.

by SmartAssCoug on Dec 18, 2010 12:55 PM PST reply actions