FAQs: Playoffs
by John Morgan on Dec 22, 2010 4:19 PM PST
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I am using the FAQ format to organize some loose thoughts. This one covers the playoffs. I started this FAQ believing one thing and am surprised what I found.
Do you want the Seahawks to make the playoffs?
Yes and no.
Do you want the Seahawks to win this Sunday?
Yes.
If the Seahawks made the playoffs, would you root for them to win?
Of course.
Why do you want the Seahawks to make the playoffs?
Because I always want the Seahawks to win and there is still a chance for this team to improve over the last two weeks of the season.
Why don't you want the Seahawks to make the playoffs?
Because the playoffs are a single elimination tournament designed to pit the best teams in the NFL against each other. Seattle has not earned its way into the playoffs, is extremely unlikely to be competitive in the playoffs and will lose substantial draft value by making the playoffs.
Why do you think Seattle has not earned its way into the playoffs?
I don't have any problem with how the playoffs are populated. Though the NFC West is very weak, it should still have a representative. That a bad team might enter into the playoffs over a more deserving team does not break the system. I also do not give a damn if fans of other NFL teams ridicule the Seahawks and Seahawks fans if Seattle makes the playoffs. Screw them.
What I care about is the spirit of the playoffs. If Seattle is not one of the best teams in the NFL, and if Seattle is making the playoffs mostly because of the failure of other teams in the NFC West, then Seattle did not earn its way in. And, personally, I do not like charity and I do not like achievement through loopholes and technicalities. If I were on the Seahawks, and I knew my team was very bad, and my team was in line to make the playoffs but only because the historical weakness of other teams in my division, I would not want to make the playoffs. It would be hollow, like an award for participation.
Why is Seattle unlikely to be competitive in the playoffs?
The Seahawks rank 29th in point differential. That despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Seahawks have not been competitive in any of their eight losses. The run defense is collapsing. The Seahawks are a bad team actively getting worse.
People want to compare the Seahawks to other long shots that made good like the 2008 Cardinals, but the 2008 Cardinals would destroy the 2010 Seahawks. Remove a huge blowout loss to the Patriots that was played in a snow storm (and warm weather teams historically have struggled in extreme cold) and the Cardinals would have had a +41 point differential. The 2008 Cardinals were a close to average team, maybe a little better, and the 2008 Cardinals are still a standard bearer for one of the most improbable playoff runs in NFL history.
How much draft value will Seattle lose by making the playoffs?
We can approach this two ways: broad and specific.
For point of clarity, let's say whether the Seahawks make the playoffs or not, Seattle finishes 7-9. The Rams finish 6-10 and the 49ers finish 7-9 and make the playoffs. Seattle can not leapfrog Carolina, Denver, Cincinnati, Arizona, Detroit or Buffalo. The Seahawks are currently slotted at 13 and with Dallas, Houston, Washington, Minnesota, and Cleveland all 5-9, 13 is a pretty good bet for where the Seahawks finish.
So Seattle has a first, a second and no third. The Seahawks have no control over the value of their fourth, but thankfully Denver is tanking so that should be an early fourth round pick. Two fifths, one from Baltimore; one sixth from Detroit, which should also be good; and two sevenths, one from Cleveland.
If we assume the 13-21 dichotomy, making the playoffs only costs Seattle about 10 AVR.
| Playoffs | Miss Ply. |
| 1st: 35 AVR | 1st: 41 AVR |
| 2nd: 23 AVR | 2nd: 25 AVR |
| 5th: 10 AVR | 5th: 11 AVR |
| 7th:6 | 7th:7 |
| Total: 74 | Total: 84 |
Not a whole ton of difference there. Ten AVR is like adding another fifth round pick. Much ado about nothing?
Maybe. Let's get into specifics. Seattle really needs a quarterback and typically that means drafting a quarterback in the first round. It doesn't have to. Half of all Super Bowl winning teams in the last 20 years were led by a quarterback that team had drafted in the first round, but there are alternatives like signing Drew Brees, trading for Steve Young and drafting Tom Brady in the sixth. I don't mean that sarcastically so much as a point of fact. If Seattle has an ace up their sleeve to acquire a young franchise quarterback like Vince Young, then more power to them, but I will avoid wishcasting for now.
So, let's assume Seattle needs to target a quarterback in the first round of the draft. Which quarterbacks might be available?
Confirmed:
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Pat Devlin
Probable:
Cameron Newton
Possible:
Andrew Luck
Ryan Mallett
In the mix:
Blaine Gabbert
Ricky Stanzi
Colin Kaepernick
(others)
The best case scenario is that Newton, Luck and Mallett declare and Locker and Ponder get first round grades. Luck said before the season that he wants a degree, and after this season and especially in light of Bradford's first overall selection, it is unlikely he would significantly hurt his draft position by returning, and so I assume Luck will not declare. So let's say the pool of quarterbacks is Newton, Locker, Ponder and maybe Devlin and Gabbert, if Devlin really shows up at the Senior Bowl and Gabbert declares. You can swap Gabbert for Mallet if you'd like, but I doubt we see both. It seems unlikely that either Stanzi or Kaapernick sniff a first round grade.
Now, which teams need a quarterback?
1. Carolina (2-12): Maybe
2. Denver (3-11): No.
3. Cincinnati (3-11): Maybe.
4. Arizona (4-10): Yes.
5. Detroit (4-10): No.
6. Buffalo (4-10): Maybe.
7. Dallas (5-9): No.
8. Washington (5-9): Maybe.
9. Houston (5-9): No.
10. Minnesota (5-9): Maybe.
11. Cleveland (5-9): No.
12. St. Louis (6-8) No.
Carolina is impossible to forecast because we do not know who the new head coach will be. Some of this is conditional. If the Bengals drop Palmer, they enter into the race but Palmer is able to fill some other team's needs. Despite the recent rash of scorn for Palmer, he has not played that poorly and on a fairly talent poor offense. If the Redskins drop McNabb, it's the same story: one opening/one position filled. Let's just say half of the maybes draft a quarterback and half don't, and that Donovan McNabb leaves Washington and signs with the Vikings. The Vikings are too old for a rookie quarterback, and Mike Shanahan has publicly alienated McNabb.
Carolina: Clausen/Moore/Pike
Cincinnati: Palmer
Arizona: Newton
Buffalo: Fitzpatrick (cheapskates)
Washington: Locker
Minnesota: McNabb
Seattle picks from: Ponder, Devlin or Gabbert.
Conveniently enough, all three roughly fit what Seattle wants in a quarterback.
Now, how about if Seattle falls to 21?
13. St. Louis (6-8) No.
14. Tennessee (6-8) Maybe.
15. New England - from Oakland (7-7) No.
16. Miami (7-7) Maybe.
17. San Diego (8-6) No.
18. Jacksonville (8-6) No.
19. Tampa Bay (8-6) No.
20. Green Bay (8-6) No.
21. Seattle (6-8) Yes!
Tennessee: Young.
Miami: Henne.
And wouldn't you know it, it doesn't make much of a difference. If Tennessee does draft a quarterback, Young becomes available. Now this isn't definitive, but it is interesting. I had assumed Seattle making the playoffs would a) cost more in overall draft value, and b) hurt them more in the pursuit of a franchise quarterback, but instead it seems like a) it doesn't impact either that much, because b) much of the damage is already done. Seattle is not likely to get one of the two top quarterbacks, and from there, it has a pretty equal shot of landing an also ran at 13 or 21.
Huh.
What if more than half of the maybes select a quarterback?
Then Seattle is out of the running either way.
How about trading up?
This complicates matters, of course, and it would be easier to trade up from 13 than 21, but we're far enough out that it would be very hard to anticipate the likelihood of trading up or what it would cost.
Do you want the Seahawks to make the playoffs?
I guess so.
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I guess so
That epitomizes my feelings about the Hawks making the playoffs as well.
An open mind is like a fortress with its gates unbarred and unguarded.
by Corax --Nevermore-- on Dec 22, 2010 4:27 PM PST reply actions
I'm confused
If we make the playoffs, you’d think that would mean we would pick after San Francisco, but I don’t see them on here. Did they trade their pick?
Well theres another team in the qb running
Which I suppose means that for the Hawks sake, if anyone beats them out for the playoffs it had better be San Fran.
Can’t say thats what my gut says though…
One list is created by San Fran making the playoffs
So the 1-12 list doesn’t include the 49ers.
The other list is created by Seattle making the playoffs, so 12 would probably turn into San Francisco and 13 would stay St. Louis.
The 49ers are another “maybe”, but I would hedge towards doubtful after six seasons of the Alex Smith experience.
Isn't there a good chance they have a new head coach, too?
And wouldn’t he be more likely to want to draft a new qb?
They're more likely to look for a vet, I'd think.
Palmer or McNabb, or perhaps making a play for Vince Young.
"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 22, 2010 7:31 PM PST up reply actions
Been waiting for a comprehensive draft post like this for a while.
Great update on quarterbacks likely to be taken and teams likely to take a quarterback, in draft order.
Any thoughts on Luck coming out based upon losing his entire offensive line, basically being guaranteed 1st QB taken, and seeing what happened to Locker this season (after being 1 or 2 last year)?
I don't know that Locker was 1 or 2 last year.
People take that for granted, but my understanding is he didn’t grade very well with the Draft Advisory Board. Locker’s 2010 has been pretty poor, but his 2009 was also pretty poor.
I think Luck is more like Bradford: He has already done enough to secure a top ten overall selection and potentially a first overall selection.
Especially with the lockout looming, I figure he stays.
OR
we root for Luck staying, trade for a first round pick with a team we expect to be really bad next year (assuming no strike) and draft Luck. :P
That would be my best case scenario.
Well, actually, best case would be for Luck to declare this year but guarantee he will hold out if any team other than Seattle picks him. Not holding my breath on that, though…
So we need to hire Jim Harburgh as offensive coordinator?
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
I don't follow any of this very closely, but when I go to ESPN's draft page, and look at Scout Inc's rankings....
I see 7 of their top 13 and 12 of their top 32 are defensive linemen (though your man Austin isn’t listed – kind of odd considering he seems like a definite for the draft, right?). I’m sure several of those guys don’t fit our scheme, but it seems like there should be some great talent still around at our pick. Also, 3 CBs in the top 11.
Seems like there’s a lot of potential to address some of our other needs, if the QBs PC is interested in are gone.
In the first?
What about pass rushers? Have you seen any of Justin Houston or Akeem Ayers?
by Hawkhammer19 on Dec 22, 2010 5:37 PM PST up reply actions
Waiting another year for a QB is only absurd if we would otherwise be greatly over valueing a current prospect.
I’m adamantly against any of the possible trades that prospects that could be available. Especially VY.
Depends.
Probably depends on how the Seahawks value QBs available when they pick. There are needs at a number of positions (no kidding) and so if they think there’s a DL guy who helps the team more than the QB who’s available, then they probably do that. This little surge into quasi-mediocrity may just cost the Hawks the ability to improve the most important position on the field.
Benching Hasselbeck in this last game probably at least means the front office will seriously consider finding a new starting QB this offseason. That is, unless they’re comfortable with Whitehurst. But if they’re comfortable with Whitehurst why don’t they just . . . nevermind.
Vince Young: Franchise Quarterback
Is that sarcasm I’m reading?
Chad Brown for the Ring of Honor!
by Big Seahawk Loser on Dec 22, 2010 5:16 PM PST reply actions
Not every quarterback puts it together right away.
Steve Young, Dan Fouts, Michael Vick, Warren Moon, Sonny Jurgensen—just like Mike Williams, the talent that made Young so special didn’t just disappear. He may never make it, but he is certainly capable of being a franchise quarterback.
What do you think the chances of us signing him are?
I’m just wondering because wouldn’t we have to sign him (commit to him) before the draft?
by Hawkhammer19 on Dec 22, 2010 5:33 PM PST up reply actions
The owner has been fairly strong in supporting Young
Makes you think he will get rid of the couch first
I doubt Bud Adams turns on Jeff Fischer.
Fischer saw that team through relocation and took them to the Super Bowl three years later.
Not that Adams is known to be utterly trustworthy, but Fischer is beloved, he has been very successful, and it’s not like Young has valuable but controversial. Vince Young is a bust.
I got rid of my couch too.
Replaced it with a foosball table and a treadmill.
"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 22, 2010 7:34 PM PST up reply actions
Those must be horrible to take naps on
Football isn't baseball.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 23, 2010 12:32 AM PST up reply actions
Wow! That's a commitment!
To make your foosball more like real soccer. Running while you play!
by Kryten on Dec 23, 2010 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That would be AWESOME!
I do sometimes play xbox while on the treadmill… but not foosball.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 23, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
I think Carroll will listen to his friend Norm Chow
and respect USC alum Jeff Fischer’s opinion that Vince Young just ain’t worth the headache.
Norm Chow is not Jeremy Bates.
Vince Young would be a much better fit for this team than he was for Chow’s system.
I'm not talking skill wise, physicality or scheme fit.
Purely mental. Maturity and leadership. Both of which have been questioned by Norm Chow and Fisher.
I will bet my house that Carroll doesn't make a move for VY even if VY gets cut
(by the way, I don’t own a house)
I think he might
but it’s a risk. He tried to do it for White but when White showed that Carroll wasn’t having an effect on him, he was out. I don’t see Pete ever investing on risky players like that. If BMW didn’t buy in, I’m sure he would’ve been cut too.
This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.
What would we have to trade for him?
PS You can watch every play he’s made this season, including the sacks and fumbles and all that, on youtube by search VY vs (opponent’s name) or vince young vs (opponent’s name).
by Hawkhammer19 on Dec 22, 2010 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
Vince Young? I don't follow.
Young has proven to be injury-prone and emotionally unstable. We want to bring that to Seattle? I’d rather look into bringing someone like Fitzpatrick or Stanton over there if we’re gonna go that route.
Quite frankly, I think drafting a QB this offseason would be a waste of time. Our O-line is barely functional, and only when Okung is in there. Our D-line is in shambles. Our corners are getting burned on nearly every drive. Neither Forsett nor Lynch is going to be a long-term solution in the backfield. Pretty much the only positions that we’re OK at are wideout and special teams.
Assuming we don’t resign Hasselbeck, I would much rather give Whitehurst a year to either succeed or fail while we use our picks to shore up all the other gaping holes in our team, than draft a QB this year and destroy his confidence by subjecting him to the 41-7 and 33-3 thumpings we’ve had this year.
Granted, I know squat about college football and what players are coming out this year or next. But there always seems to be talented QBs available.
FG's second favorite football-illiterate semi-troll.
The Seahawks have allowed 31 sacks this year
And 8 came in the Raiders game. Run blocking struggles but this team has shown capable of pass blocking.
Accustomed to mediocrity.
And several of those sacks on "passing" plays have been that special sack experience
The Hasselsack. Those should come with a goddam asterisk in the stats book.
Penalties have murdered us too.
Locklear’s triple-false start a while back was one of the most frustrating things I’ve seen from this team in years.
FG's second favorite football-illiterate semi-troll.
Kellen Moore?
Probably more of a 3-5th rounder if he declares, but he seems like a smart guy and has thrown down field an awful lot this year.
You are probably right on his grade
So I think he stays in school, it most likely can only get better.
More like UDF
No chance he goes in the 3rd round. I don’t think he gets drafted, but if he does it’s no early than 5th round.
I must be the only person alive
who believes Locker will not go in the first. (Oh, and before you kill me now, just wait until his combine numbers come in. McShay will have him #1 overall…)
I'm gonna go calm submissive on your ass.
No.
Single-handedly carrying Florida to a National Championship and Thom Brennaman’s man crush is what got him paid. (Click the link, it’s worth it.)
"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 22, 2010 7:39 PM PST up reply actions
True.
But by “only person alive” I simply meant “person who has nothing to do with drafting players”.
He might go in the first. But everything I have ever read about him says that it’s a given he’ll go in the first. Fans, so-called draft experts, etc… I don’t believe it.
I'm gonna go calm submissive on your ass.
I think the craziest thing in Seahawks draft history is this
Our best QBs who began their careers as Seahawks have been Zorn (undrafted), Krieg (undrafted) and, even though this douchebag didn’t play for Seattle long he may end the season with 30,000 career passing yards which is an accomplishment of sorts, Kitna (undrafted).
Our 18 drafted QBs (15 regular draft, 2 expansion draft, 1 USFL draft) including 1st rounders Mirer (who?) and McGwire (who?) have never become decent QBs for the Seahawks or any other team.
I think it was Holmgren who said it best
“Jon, thanks for helping the team get to playoffs for the first time in a million years. You were decent enough but you are kind of a douchebag and should really be playing for a douchier team like the Bengals. I’m going to trade for this Hasselbeck fellow who probably isn’t any better than you are but at least he’s not a douchebag.”
by Kevaru on Dec 22, 2010 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
As a CWU alum
I have an odd man love for Central Washington’s own Jon Kitna. I used to walk by Nicholson Pavilion everyday on the way to class and see his Bengals’ jersey hanging up in one of the offices.
I went to Onalaska.
We had a mid-season transfer from Lincoln named Rich Cline. He brought Kitna and Lawyer Milloy down to Onalaska for an open gym. It was a pretty funny sight, two hard ass city kids (and Kitna was WAY rough around the edges before he found religion) down in our little cornbread white town.
But he was a decent enough guy.
"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 22, 2010 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I knew guys that went to school with Kitna at Lincoln.
By pretty much all accounts he was a good guy.
by splintrdmind on Dec 22, 2010 8:50 PM PST up reply actions
I'm class of 2000 as well, lol.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 24, 2010 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
Then what do we do about our QB position?
Moore is a great college QB, but a complete lottery ticket in the NFL. Small, slow, weak arm is not a great recipe for success.
I'm not short changing accuracy
But abusing his schedule with his talent overstates his accuracy.
You could even throw Hasselbeck in the mix for veteran QB's that could sign elsewhere.
Wouldn’t totally shock me if he goes somewhere like SF, especially if they hire Gruden or someone from that coaching tree.
I think Gruden will go to Denver
and Gruden has a major man crush on Tim Tebow
One more note, John.
You might want to double-calculate the draft position. If there is a lockout, it stands to reckon that the same draft order will occur two years in a row, so the value will be double the playoff entry/exit.
Plus, that second year there may be other teams in need/not in need of a QB to factor in…
"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 22, 2010 7:44 PM PST reply actions
If there is a lockout, will there be no draft?
And if so, does that mean the 2nd draft will be twice as full of college talent?
This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.
Don't know.
Curious to find out, though…
"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 23, 2010 1:22 AM PST up reply actions
I can't find it but I read somewhere the draft will happen and then nearly immediately the lockout will occur
I’m sure there will be some amount of lockout, I’ll just be very surprised if it effects the season. Too much money out there to lose.
The draft will happen regardless of a lockout
Even if there’s a lockout, it may last into the regular season and may merely disrupt training camp.
Football isn't baseball.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 23, 2010 9:35 AM PST up reply actions
and even if there's a lockout
it may not prevent any regular season games, merely disrupting training camp.
Football isn't baseball.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 23, 2010 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
Love draft stuff, but I think if it's between Ponder/Gabbert at the 12th pick
and a Quinn, Jenkins type or maybe a trade back and a Rodney Hudson and Cameron Heyward/other draft faller, then I think I’d rather get that instead of a QB project. There are a lot of holes to fix on this team.
Ponder is not worth it
Not worth using a pick in the 1st or 2nd for Ponder. Hugely overrated “intelligence” factor. The dude is crazy smart off the field but makes a bunch of dumb decisions on it. Highly doubt he is picked in the top 50.
"The best case scenario is that Newton, Luck and Mallett declare and Locker and Ponder get first round grades."
What if a few get 2nd round grades? Are they not worth taking? Seems to me Ponder and Devlin could possibly be available when we pick again in the 2nd. Wouldn’t picking one be worth a shot? Maybe I’m confused but it seems like you’re suggesting that if a player doesn’t get a first round grade than we shouldn’t bother. I think we should accumulate as much QB talent as possible and let everything work out from there.
Well
I guess the best case scenario is that a sensationally talented player is not given a first round grade and Seattle lucks into them late in the draft, like a Tom Brady, but typically a first round grade is a pretty good indication that a player cuts muster.
I see what you mean
I’m just curious as to your general opinion of drafting QB’s outside of the 1st round. Last year Carolina took Clausen in the 2nd (generally perceived as a steal) and Tony Pike (I believe in the 4th or the 5th). I have to admit I am somewhat partial to this strategy if getting a top tiered QB appears to be unattainable. As you said in your most recent post (and I’m paraphrasing) we either get a franchise QB or die trying.
If I were a GM, I would probably draft a quarterback every year.
It’s the most important position and the hardest to evaluate.
Somehow the Eagles understand this to an extent.
It would be nice if Seattle embraced it, too. Not that anyone would make it past the clipboard.
...
I'd be shocked
if Ponder gets a first round grade. I don’t think he should go in the top 2 rounds, let alone 1st.
Would it be worth our time
to try and draft more than one QB this year? One high-round “sure thing” that would fall to us in the mid- to late-first round, and another Mike Teel-ish prospect QB, someone with interesting stats and ability coming out of a non-powerhouse football program somewhere in the 6th or 7th round?
Still not sure why we got rid of him, to be honest. Teel had impressive stats, vastly improving all four years, and he was built like a machine. If it were my draft to run, I would go with a QB somewhere in the 5th-7th round every year with just such a pedigree. Not every pro-level player has to come from Michigan, Ohio State, or USC. There are probably some damn good late round or even undrafted players to be had for pocket change. I’d say spend our picks on QBs instead of some random running back or linebacker that’ll just be cut during training camp.
I did this list at the halfway point of the season. Much of my thinking about each team's QB scenarios is still valid.
1. (5) New England Patriots: 7-2 ….. Tom Brady
2. (4) New York Jets: 7-2 ….. Mark Sanchez
3. (2) Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-3 ….. Ben Roethlisberger
4. (8) Atlanta Falcons: 7-2 ….. Matt Ryan
5. (1) New York Giants: 6-3 ….. Eli Manning
6. (3) Baltimore Ravens: 6-3 ….. Joe Flacco
7. (6) New Orleans Saints: 6-3 ….. Drew Brees
8. (9) Philadelphia Eagles: 6-3 ….. Mike Vick/K.Kolb
9. (7) Green Bay Packers: 6-3 ….. Aaron Rodgers
10. (10) Indianapolis Colts: 6-3 ….. Peyton Manning
11. (12) Oakland Raiders: 5-4 ….. Jason Campbell
12. (16) Chicago Bears: 6-3 ….. Jay Cutler
13. (13) San Diego Chargers: 4-5 ….. Phillip Rivers
14. (17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-3 ….. Josh Freeman
15. (14) Miami Dolphins: 5-4 ….. Chad Henne
16. (11) Tennessee Titans: 5-4 ….. Vince Young
17. (22) Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-4 ….. David Garrard
18. (20) Cleveland Browns: 3-6 ….. Colt McCoy
19. (15) Kansas City Chiefs: 5-4 ….. Matt Cassel
20. (18) Houston Texans: 4-5 ….. Matt Schaub
21. (25) Seattle Seahawks: 5-4 ….. Matt Hasselbeck/Charlie Whitehurst
22. (23) St. Louis Rams: 4-5 ….. Sam Bradford
23. (29) Dallas Cowboys: 2-7 ….. Tony Romo
24. (21) Washington Redskins: 4-5 ….. Donovan McNabb
25. (19) Minnesota Vikings: 3-6 ….. Brett Favre
26. (28) San Francisco 49ers: 3-6 ….. Troy Smith
27. (30) Denver Broncos: 3-6 ….. Kyle Orton/Tim Tebow
28. (26) Cincinnati Bengals: 2-7 ….. Carson Palmer
29. (25) Arizona Cardinals: 3-6 ….. Derek Anderson/Skelton/Hall
30. (24) Detroit Lions: 2-7 ….. Matt Stafford
31. (32) Buffalo Bills: 1-8 ….. Ryan Fitzpatrick
32. (31) Carolina Panthers: 1-8 ….. Jimmy Clausen/Tony Pike
Possibly Seeking QB in 2011 Draft (or Free Agency)
31. (32) Buffalo Bills: 1-8
29. (25) Arizona Cardinals: 3-6
28. (26) Cincinnati Bengals: 2-7
26. (28) San Francisco 49ers: 3-6
25. (19) Minnesota Vikings: 3-6
24. (21) Washington Redskins: 4-5
21. (25) Seattle Seahawks: 5-4
19. (15) Kansas City Chiefs: 5-4
18. (20) Cleveland Browns: 3-6
17. (22) Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-4
15. (14) Miami Dolphins: 5-4
11. (12) Oakland Raiders: 5-4
Almost Certainly Drafting or Signing New QB in 2011
31. (32) Buffalo Bills: 1-8
29. (25) Arizona Cardinals: 3-6
26. (28) San Francisco 49ers: 3-6
25. (19) Minnesota Vikings: 3-6
21. (25) Seattle Seahawks: 5-4
17. (22) Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-4
11. (12) Oakland Raiders: 5-4
I like Garrard, but it seems Jacksonville is always bitching about their QB. I’m not sure if I’m running the Jags that I don’t just stick with Garrard. He is almost 33, though.
...
by Misfit74 on Dec 23, 2010 12:01 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Not complaining at all
but wooooah long post! I’ll let you know when I’m finished in half an hour.
This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.
Ok nevermind there's just lots of "Enter/Return"s
This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.
Yeah I like this post.
This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.
Do we know this for sure?
Two fifths, one from Baltimore;
I know the pick was conditional based on how many games Wilson started, but I cannot find anything that says how many games he needed to start to ugrade the pick to a 4th. NFL.com says he has 7 starts so far, and I’m assuming he’ll get 2 more for 9 total. That’s more than half the games, so maybe that will be enough.
If it turns out he needed 10 starts I’m going to assume that the Ravens intentionally held him out for the first snap in a few games just to make sure he didn’t have enough starts to not have to send a 4th, and if I was the Seahawks front office I’d keep that in mind when dealing with Baltimore in the future.
by Mind of no mind on Dec 23, 2010 2:25 AM PST reply actions
Schnieder said at the time the triggers were easily met.
Probably based on games played, not starts. I don’t think there are GMs still employed that would base a trigger on starts. A 2nd grader could figure out how to get around that.
If Schnieder said that, it was probably as you said, either on percentage of games played, or more likely, on percentage of the team's total plays for the season.
That way they can’t “sit” him at the start and then play him the rest of the game and call him a backup.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 23, 2010 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
The big upside to having the Pats own the Raiders 1st round pick this year,
is that they are always trying to trade back. If the raiders finish 7-9 (last two games are IND and @KC) then we might be able to trade up from our spot if someone like Newton or Locker falls. Not having a third might hurt, but maybe Denvers low 4th and one of our 5ths will get it done.
by Mind of no mind on Dec 23, 2010 2:30 AM PST reply actions
I forgot all about that.
An interesting thing about that— at the time of the trade, it looked like another Pats fleecing of another team. However, they’ve had plenty of problems on the DL since moving out Seymour, and on top of that, I’ve heard more than a couple places that the Raiders owe much of their improved competitiveness to the fact that they brought him over.
I’m not sold the Raiders don’t win against Indy and knock Indy out of the playoff hunt. It is in Oakland, and Indy is only 3-4 outside the dome, and the Raiders are designed to run the ball— exactly Indy’s weakness.
The final game of the season vs. the Chiefs is an interesting matchup too. KC has the Titans at home and then Oakland, and the Chargers have Cincy, then Denver, but both on the road.
There’s a chance all 3 teams end up 9-7, wouldn’t that be something? Or if SD finished one game behind, they can attribute that game to losing to us when the other THREE teams in the division all beat us handily.
"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 23, 2010 8:38 AM PST up reply actions
Great article John
As has been said before, there are too many variables effecting the draft and who will be available at this point. To think that we can guess what will happen or how wins effect us right now is foolish. If we had started losing in week 2, Carolina style, then we could guess, but we didn’t and now we are in the squishy middle that tends to get more muddled.
I know I will get flamed for this statement, but I want the team to taste the playoffs. Winning is a drug and I want the playoffs to be the pusher who gives out the first sample. Many disagree that this is even worth discussing. Thats fine, I don’t care about trying to convince you of it, but I believe it and I have heard many an athlete talk about the same thing. Bottom Line I want them to go.
I think it's more likely we finish 6-10...
which would likely give us the around the 8th pick, depending on tiebreakers…
From 8 to 21 in every round is a more drastic jump/fall.
Oops! I meant around 10th...
It would be hard to jump all those 5-9 teams. I’ve been thinking for a couple weeks now that we’d end up around 10th if we lose to the Rams, and 21st if we beat them.
I guess we’ll see in about 12 days or so…
It's not just the Seahawks trading up - it's all teams
Being at 21 makes it easier for teams to leap frog ahead. Honestly though I would rather have another kick ass offensive lineman and go with Whitehurst for another year. If offensive line is not fixed then no quarterback will succeed.
Looking at it again, I think a better solution to address our QB problems is through FA and trading
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
You might be right
As much as it pains me to suggest this, it might be worth bringing in Rex Grossman and have him battle Whitehurst for the starting spot, use the draft to fix OL, DL and secondary, then use whatever resources we have in the 2012 draft to trade up (if necessary) for a long-term QB solution.
by SmartAssCoug on Dec 23, 2010 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
Well I was thinking more along the lines of McNabb, Orton, or Flitzpatrick...
But sure, why not? (Gulp)
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
I'm not sure those other guys are going to be available to us
McNabb seems like he’d want to be somewhere closer to winning, with already built in talent. Something like Minnesota, SF or Arizona as a short-term replacement. I haven’t followed Denver that much, but it didn’t seem to me earlier this season that Orton was the problem. And Buffalo might want to retain Fitz.
Grossman is only on a 1-yr contract with Washington and he’d only be 31 next season. He’s got the big arm like Whitehurst, has always been one to stretch the field, and some of his decision making problems would likely be mitigated in Bates’ offense. He’s still got got a little bit of mobility left.
I’m not saying I’d want to build a team around him, but for a one-year stop gap he’d make as much sense as anyone.
by SmartAssCoug on Dec 23, 2010 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
So NOT a sexy acquisition.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 23, 2010 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
Orton or Fitzpatrick
I can get behind, but if their teams have any sense at all (which remains to be seem), they won’t be.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
Not so sure.
Tim Tebow showed a lot of promise last Sunday, and if Pat Bowden want to clean house/rebuild, he won’t hesitate to trade away the veteran. Fitzpatrick is a more interesting case. Buffalo may want to keep him, but he may want to showcase his talents to a better team.
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
Corrections and opinions
1) Pat Bowlen is the owner of the Denver Broncos, but he’s not really running the show as much anymore. He’s admitted to issues with short-term memory loss and has more or less given up control of the team to, I think, lesser minds.
Personally, I think Orton is and has been one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL. I think Cutler’s got tools and all, but to this day I’m still fence-sitting on whether or not he’s better (or will ever be better) than Kyle Orton is right now. That goes for Tebow as well. I like him to a degree, but one in the hand, two in the bush and all – QB is not the most pressing need in Denver (if it’s a need at all right now) and if I took over wardship of that program and someone offered a high 2nd and maybe a 4th for Tebow, I’d take it and roll with Orton.
If I was Fitzpatrick I’d get the holy fuck out of Buffalo if I had any control over it and could do it without looking like a classless jerk. I don’t know what his retainer sitch is, but if he’s free next year, he should go anywhere else. The Bills may not even be “Buffalo” much longer, and that could conceivably gestate into a level of instability there that I’d want nothing to do with. From the Bills perspective, Fitz is exactly the type of player they should try – and will be able – to lock down. I can’t imagine A+ talent is going to go anywhere near Buffalo until they figure their shit out. And I don’t think this is anything like the Saints’ situation.
No pity points.
And you freeze your balls off.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
Ugh, no Grossman.
Not even as much based on his ability… but this FG’s obsession with never-ending player meme’s would make every post unbearable. If I never have to hear “Sexy Rexy” one more time, I’ll die happy.
Ummmm
So are we putting more value on Rex’s last game over his whole career?
I’m sorry, but we have to draft/acquire a young, new talent. I know Seattle has a rough history with highly drafted QBs, but the bottom line is that outside of a few exceptions, a majority of playoff teams are QBed by first round QBs. There’s a reason for that.
If QBs were so risky in the 1st round, then nobody would draft a QB. Fact of the matter is every position or player picked in the first round is a complete gamble. Remember that stud, can’t miss LBer a few years ago? Oh yeah, Aaron Curry. No position is fool proof, but the fact remains, you cannot be a consistently competitive, playoff caliber team without a good QB.
Not that I want the guy, but technically he was the 1.22 pick in 2003, so he IS a first round QB.
He’s just a cast away reclaimation project of a 1st round pick, and at 31 years old with a long history of ineffectiveness, not with a lot of upside.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 23, 2010 3:20 PM PST up reply actions
Grossman?
I’d rather nail my member to a burning building than see him in Seattle blues.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
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