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Around SBN: How The Kings Beat The Coyotes: Lather, Rinse, Repeat

Postgame: Seahawks 31 - Panthers 14

Football is unpredictable, esoteric -- you know this spiel. Despite all that, it's important not to fall into magical thinking. Maybe we do not know exactly why Seattle was able to perform so much better in the second half, but do we really think Pete Carroll put on a little speech and a bunch of professional football players suddenly remembered to try, to execute, to successfully play the game of football?

Of course not.

The Seahawks won the second half through tangible execution, a favorable game state, and the fortune of facing a rookie quarterback.

Let's look at the first half, in brief:

20 run attempts, 95 yards, six first downs, two touchdowns.

Seahawks end the half down 14-3.

Second half:

10 attempts, 37 yards, four first downs, 0 touchdowns.

The Seahawks force Jimmy Clausen to drive the offense, and Clausen plays like a rookie, and not even a particularly good one. He throws a pick six. The Panthers fall behind 17-14. Carolina's ensuing drive totals 12 yards. Panthers punt and Leon Washington returns it 84 yards and puts Seattle on the one. The Seahawks punch it in and make it a two score game.

It's halfway through the third, and even if John Fox knows nothing about win probability, years of experience means he can feel the game slipping away. And it is. Seattle's win probability has reached 72%. Of the next nine plays, seven are passes. Those nine plays are spread over three consecutive three and outs. After the first, Seattle's win probability jumps to 89%. The Panthers do not have a passing offense. The Panthers can not overcome a two score deficit and like quicksand, their struggles sink them deeper and deeper.

And that's how Seattle won: one big turnover, one big return, and a game state that made one of the Panthers' worst players become the Panthers' most important player.

And that's why Carolina is now 1-11: The NFL is a passing league, the Panthers can not effectively pass the football, and when they get behind and must pass, the offense works likes a matchlock musket. It points one way and kills the other.

And so the Seahawks won and are now 6-6 and have surpassed the 2009 Seahawks and have succeeded where the 2009 Seahawks failed. I'll take that. And I'll keep perspective.

Game Ball

Justin Forsett

Forsett rushed six times and those six rushes went for 5, 2, 2, 31, 19 and 1 yard. Of those six runs, only one was truly a surprise run: Forsett gained five yards on third and seven.

I don't know if it's a extravagant way of explaining away Marshawn Lynch's struggles, but Forsett's success this season has been qualified by most Seahawks fans. It has been diminished by suggestions that he runs out of passing downs, or against fewer eight in the box looks, or whatever. I don't really know if that's true or not. I do know that Forsett is the best rusher on this team, as currently comprised. It doesn't bother me that Forsett is a change of pace back, but it does bother me when Forsett is an afterthought. Not only should Lynch be ceding carries to Forsett, but he probably be ceding carries to Leon Washington too.

This was supposed to be a committee, but when push comes to shove, it seems like Jeremy Bates would rather ride the feature back. That's disappointing. The Seahawks are not a good team. Seattle can not sacrifice effectiveness for outmoded ideas like pounding the rock with the feature back when runs by that back are unsuccessful 68.2% of the time. Spread the carries. Give Force the touches he's earned.

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Leon Washington

It seems like a waste of a valuable resource to not play Leon Washington more from scrimmage. I understand his value to the team as a return man…but he sure looks a lot faster coming out of the backfield than either Forsett or Lynch.

by TMann_2 on Dec 5, 2010 5:25 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah. The complete lack of utilization of Leon has baffled me.

Maybe they don’t to risk injuring him, and losing one of our best returners? No idea.

"Pass rushers enter the world of Okung but never leave." - JM

Author of The Seahawks Asylum: http://seahawksblog.wordpress.com

by Nick Andron on Dec 5, 2010 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

without being to much of a pesimist

it seems like he contributes more net yardage on punt/kick returns then he would with our oline getting beat into the backfield 5 yards on every run.

From The Hawks Nest - Seahawks Podcast
http://www.http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-hawks-nest/id385227705

by Hancock.Brett on Dec 5, 2010 10:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd give the game ball to the second half lines

Both the O and D lines showed up big in the second half and were absent first

by stufr on Dec 5, 2010 5:28 PM PST reply actions  

My game ball goes to Michael Robinson

I saw three key blocks that sprung Lynch for good runs. One of which was on LB Jon Beason that got Lynch into the 3rd level and the 22 yard TD to seal the game. Dude is so important for the run game.

"Pass rushers enter the world of Okung but never leave." - JM

Author of The Seahawks Asylum: http://seahawksblog.wordpress.com

by Nick Andron on Dec 5, 2010 5:53 PM PST reply actions   2 recs

I'm happy to have him back and blocking

It doesn’t hurt that the Panthers are crap vs the run, but I’d like to imagine that his efforts helped revive our run game.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 5, 2010 6:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Which again begs the question

Why the Seahawks didn’t bother to get a replacement FB when he was injured?

by Groundhog on Dec 5, 2010 11:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Seriously!

They’re so used to swapping players in and out, you’d think they could find some kind of street fullback.

This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.

by Cheddar28 on Dec 6, 2010 1:04 AM PST up reply actions  

Game Ball: Walter Jones

Pre-number retirement: 14-0
Post-number retirement 14-31

I think when the Seahawks saw Jones getting all emotional at the 2 minute warning they said they weren’t going to fuck up Big Walt’s Big Day. And the rest is history.

Also, I fully agree on your assessment re:Lynch/Forsett. Every time I see Lynch play, I see a guy that should be hitting the hole at full speed and running through people and breaking tackles. Instead, I see a guy who wants to jump around laterally like he had the agility of Barry Sanders and dance his way through the tackles. Forsett should be getting 50% of the carries, minimum.

by Kevaru on Dec 5, 2010 6:05 PM PST reply actions  

A good weekend

The Hawks come from behind for a win, the Ducks make it to the championship and my high school team won the oregon 4a state football championship.
And Walters number is in the rafters

BMW17 Comeback Player of the Year and future Probowl Mainstay

by eohawkfan on Dec 5, 2010 6:17 PM PST reply actions  

Despite being a UW fan, I completely agree, and I am supportive of Oregon and the rest of the Pac-10.

Congrats to Oregen and I hope they clean the floor with Auburn, take a shit on said floor, then clean the floor with Aurburn one more time, if for no other reason than to shut the SEC up for at least one off season.
Let’s also give the Huskies some credit for finally getting back to a bowl game, and Standfor deserves a ton of credit as well.

by skwid206 on Dec 5, 2010 6:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Too bad Nebraska will use Washington's spine as a jump rope.

I suffer from IBS, otherwise known as "Influx of Billick Syndrome".

by SSreporters on Dec 5, 2010 7:18 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

This may be my typical Seattle sports fan unfounded optimism,

but I think a rested, healthy, motivated, Husky team with almost 4 weeks to prepare will do better than a lot of people think.
At least I hope they will.

by skwid206 on Dec 5, 2010 8:55 PM PST up reply actions  

The Huskies have a better chance against Oklahoma

Than we do in the playoffs.

It’s Seattle sports fan optimism.

by MT Olson on Dec 6, 2010 2:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Good thing we don't play Oklahoma, then.

Nebraska is the matchup, and while it isn’t a good one, I’m hopeful they will show up and make a game of it at least.

"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 6, 2010 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Hahaha

For some reason, I completely mixed the two schools up.

by MT Olson on Dec 6, 2010 5:03 PM PST up reply actions  

On success rate:

While Lynch has an unfavorable SR of 31%, Forsett’s is still less than 40% and Washington’s is a paltry 26% If we assume that Forsett runs more out of passing downs than Lynch (which I think is a safe assumption as Lynch hasn’t been used as much in passing downs), then Forsett is only slightly more successful than Lynch, despite running in favorable situations.

This is not to say that Forsett (or Washington) shouldn’t be getting more carries, because I think (t)he(y) should, but I don’t think SR provides a slam-dunk case for a change.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 5, 2010 6:20 PM PST reply actions  

On second thought, I'm less skeptical and more ambivalent

If Forsett is running out of 3rd and long (a passing down), he’s likely got more help at the LoS but also more yards to cover to “succeed” than if he was running out of an obvious running down. I think this means that the situations different but not necessarily “unequal” in terms of “difficulty”. I don’t think Lynch more likely to succeed in these situations than Forsett, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Forsett may be more likely to succeed to likely running downs.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 5, 2010 6:27 PM PST up reply actions  

PISTOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 5, 2010 6:28 PM PST reply actions  

Grr, wrong thread again.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 5, 2010 6:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Haha, it was a fun comment either way

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Dec 6, 2010 7:58 AM PST up reply actions  

On the halftime speech (from an ESPN commenter):
Pete Carroll got everyone in the locker room at half-time and told them he’d shoot Walt’s dog if they didn’t win.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 5, 2010 6:31 PM PST reply actions  

Tatupu is finally relevant.

I loved this guy for so many years, I didn’t want him to just fade away into an average linebacker.

If you're a fan of basketball, watch a movie called Sonicsgate. It's free, just google it.

by .Bonzo on Dec 5, 2010 7:17 PM PST reply actions  

What when on at half?

I’m not exactly sure who it was, Brock perhaps, but I caught part of a radio interview. He said that in the first half Carolina was getting Seattle’s d-line with back shoulder blocks. So, when the DTs penetrated Carolina was jumping on the inside shoulder and riding them into the backfield leaving a big cutback lane.

He said that at halftime the defensive line talked technique adjustments.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Dec 5, 2010 7:28 PM PST reply actions  

Game Ball: Forsett???

I understand your point about Forsett/Lynch, but I don’t understand why you think Forsett earned the game ball in this game. The O-line seemed to rediscover itself in the second half, Tats had a pick six, Leon returned the ball back to the 3-yard line, and Lynch had 3 touchdowns. Yes, Forsett is an underutilized asset, but 10 YPC doesn’t earn a player the game ball when he only had 6 carries. It seems like you gave him the game ball to make a point despite the numbers not really supporting it today.

by bocious on Dec 5, 2010 7:41 PM PST reply actions  

Game Ball is just a construct

Honestly, I didn’t know who to give the game ball to.

Lofa had one big play, and others that he looked bad in.

Washington cockied his way out of a touchdown return.

Lynch had a decent game, but fantasy stats notwithstanding, didn’t seem particularly good.

So, I thought about it and I thought Forsett had a quality game in the snaps he saw, and so I started from there and then wrote something else.

I see your point. Forsett was not the best player today, but I am not really sure who was.

by John Morgan on Dec 5, 2010 7:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Brock?

He came up big as a pass rusher in the second half, not sure how much of the early run defense issues were on him though.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 5, 2010 8:14 PM PST up reply actions  

The Panthers?

They did a good job of not exploiting our mistakes so we could all have fun focusing on the breakout plays instead of crying in our beer.

by bocious on Dec 5, 2010 11:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Did Curry get benched in the second half?

Carroll talked about some adjustments he made at half time and thinking back I don’t remember seeing Curry much in the last two quarters. I do remember seeing Brock and Clemons on the field together quite a bit though.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 5, 2010 8:17 PM PST reply actions  

I saw him in the second half

But there are personnel packages he doesn’t play in and they may have used those more later in the game.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 5, 2010 8:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Okung

Looked great. Just hope he can stay healthy.

by JamesMurphy on Dec 5, 2010 9:22 PM PST reply actions  

The best part was seeing pissed-off Russell.

He was mad and wanted someone to take it out on, so he decided to fuck up a Panther.

Every time you masturbate... God kills a kitten? Fuck kittens.

by Matt Erickson on Dec 5, 2010 10:22 PM PST up reply actions  

He demolished that DB.

This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.

by Cheddar28 on Dec 6, 2010 1:07 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't know how to get this into Mr. Morgan's hands...

but I saw on Slickdeals that you can go to sec download and enter in the promo code ‘regions’ to get a free download of pretty much any sec game this year. I really like JM’s tape analysis so here’s to hoping he gets a little extra tape to analyze (don’t know how he normally amasses what he gets or if he even needs this but I figure it wouldn’t hurt to repost.

(Slickdeals said the code may be limited to a total number of uses but I just used it for the SEC championship and am downloading a huge (2.5g) mp4 of the game I guess.

by SgtSasquatch on Dec 5, 2010 10:21 PM PST reply actions  

Just realized it may look like I'm shilling for the SEC or something...

I’m acting purely on my self-interest of giving John more work that I get to read.

by SgtSasquatch on Dec 5, 2010 10:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, SEC is a dirty word around here.

Pretty cool deal though

It's STILL Great to be a Florida Gator!
"Too many Urkels on this team, that's why our Wins-low." -Kanye West (slightly altered)

by Wayward Llama on Dec 6, 2010 5:13 AM PST up reply actions  

The Hawks have already exceeded my expectations for this year.

1. The Hawks have already reached the win total i expected for this entire season.
2. Every team faces injuries, but the good teams have solid talent in the remaining positions and really solid depth. We don’t, and it hurts the team’s play.
3. We’ve had a different o-line in 8 games this year – the most of any nfl team. If you combine that with the injuries (Okung, Unger, Willis) and lack of solid talent & depth, you can see why we’ve had trouble and inconsistency. Everything starts in the trenches.
4. The d-line has suffered enormously with the loss of Red and the injury to Colin Cole and Mebane. We had all three of those players out at one time, if memory serves — that’s 3 of our 4 starting d-linemen out. We’re still down two starters. Not surprisingly we’ve struggled stopping the run since the injuries, which has put more pressure on the LB’s and DB’s
5. Lofa takes on different responsibilities when the starting d-linemen are out. Prior to the injuries, the big guys up front kept the O-linemen off of Lofa giving him more freedom to flow and react with his instincts and intelligence. He’s also playing banged up.
6. Our DB’s have played much worse than i anticipated this year. Does it relate to the injuries on the d-line? How much relates to a merely adequate corner on one side (Jennings) and a well-paid corner on the other who seems to have lost a step (Tru)?
7. We have an extremely talented rookie playing at safety. He will only get better, but he has blown some coverages leaving our corners exposed. I expect great improvement from him next year.
8. Getting Michael Robinson back was hugely important today. He’s so versatile and athletic (the guys a converted college QB playing FULLBACK!!!) and is strong on special teams. His presence also frees up our tight ends to get involved more in the passing game instead of having to take snaps at FB, as Carlson did quite a few times in previous games. Next year i sure hope we have a 2nd FB on the squad.
9. I agree with Mr. Morgan that Hass isn’t going to get any better. But I still think that we need to re-sign him for at least two more years. The team will only improve next year in both experience, talent and depth — especially on the O-Line. With a solid O-line in front of him, Matt still can manage a game and give us the best shot at winning.
10. Whether Whitehurst is still the heir apparent at QB or we draft someone else, they will need time to grow and improve - I still think Matt gives us the best chance to win games both this year and next. He just has to stop trying to carry everything and forcing stuff. When he does that, he makes bad decisions.
11. Yes, it’s obvious that not having BMW in the lineup affects Matt’s confidence. They seem to have clicked (along with Stokely). I actually hope both are with the team next year and my finger’s are crossed that we sign BMW to a long-term deal.
12. Special teams has been a bright spot this year, though I’ve been a little concerned with Mare the second half of this season. I hope it’s just a slight dip and not an indication that his skills are beginning to head downward.
13. Resiliency – last year this team would have quit after the two blow-out losses to NYG and OAK. The fact that they keep fighting speaks to the change in mindset among the players because of the coaching staff -
- that’s no small matter. Get enough talent with that mindset, add some luck (i.e avoid key injuries) and in a year or two this team will perennially be a threat to go deep into the playoffs.

by LGoofus on Dec 6, 2010 12:33 AM PST reply actions  

Looks like the strikeout tag got hit, I copied it here for easier reading

10. Whether Whitehurst is still the heir apparent at QB or we draft someone else, they will need time to grow and improve – I still think Matt gives us the best chance to win games both this year and next. He just has to stop trying to carry everything and forcing stuff. When he does that, he makes bad decisions.
11. Yes, it’s obvious that not having BMW in the lineup affects Matt’s confidence. They seem to have clicked (along with Stokely). I actually hope both are with the team next year and my finger’s are crossed that we sign BMW to a long-term deal.
12. Special teams has been a bright spot this year, though I’ve been a little concerned with Mare the second half of this season. I hope it’s just a slight dip and not an indication that his skills are beginning to head downward.
13. Resiliency – last year this team would have quit after the two blow-out losses to NYG and OAK. The fact that they keep fighting speaks to the change in mindset among the players because of the coaching staff — that’s no small matter. Get enough talent with that mindset, add some luck (i.e avoid key injuries) and in a year or two this team will perennially be a threat to go deep into the playoffs.

by Surf Hawk on Dec 6, 2010 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought the strikeout was perfect-- it started at "Matt gives us the best chance to win games both this year and the next."

Although it really should have started on the “we need to resign him for two more years.”

If Matt Hasselbeck is our QB for two more years, I will probably stop watching the games and just bitch on threads here after seeing the mediocrity on game summaries.

Matt’s not taking us anywhere. Let him go. He just looked up and down at best against a 1 win team. That’s not getting you anywhere unless you play a bunch of 1 win teams.

"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 6, 2010 4:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I wonder if Stokley's technique is just that good.

He’s the only Seahawks receiver, it seems, that’s wide open on so many of his receptions. Except Forsett on that double-move. Dangit Hass.
Number 13 is huge. We’re not that much better than last year but the spirit of the team seems constantly intact. Love it.

This wooden soul of mine, it cannot ever climb from places it has fallen: In between where light can shine. It never falls in line, it barely has a spine, like branches severed from the vine. Like it was faulty by design.

by Cheddar28 on Dec 6, 2010 1:12 AM PST up reply actions  

I think there's definitely more fight in this team than last year

Which is already an improvement on my mind. They’ve hit the win total I expected for this year, and unlike last year, I don’t get the feeling that they are giving up on anything.

Instead, it really seems like the team is still buying in, and that gives me a lot of hope for the future. Talent-wise, I don’t know that this team is necessarily that much better than the teams from the previous two years, and I think it’ll be a couple of years before they can return to regular playoff runs.

But I do think that attitude wise, at least, Pete has them on the right track, and that’s a start.

by splintrdmind on Dec 6, 2010 1:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Cameron Morrah

No Love? This guy stepped up big time with the absence of Williams and OBO… I want to see more of this guy

by rip4loco on Dec 6, 2010 6:36 AM PST reply actions  

Over on the Panthers' blog they're whining that the Big Walt ceremony interrupted the flow of the game

and therefore their chance of winning. Douchebags. I guess that interruption extended all the way into the third quarter, then their team stopped playing.

It's STILL Great to be a Florida Gator!
"Too many Urkels on this team, that's why our Wins-low." -Kanye West (slightly altered)

by Wayward Llama on Dec 6, 2010 7:10 AM PST reply actions  

Ridiculous!!!!

The Panthers in the Second half were like a 75 year old guy without his Viagra. (“They just couldn’t keep it up”).

We made the adjustments on defense. Bates got through to Matt “You’re going to have to throw the ball to our receivers even without BMW”. Claussen struggled immensely with the cowd noise. Morrah proved to Seahawks fans that he has talent.

This was a game we were supposed to win and the first half was a combination of poor offense and really poor defense.

Anybody want to join me in the belief that we actually CAN WIN, next week at San Fran.

Maybe the first half was what was needed for Carol to wake them up. It seems like we’re getting healthy just at the right time.

That’s good news about BMW, Obomanu and Cole all probable for next week.

by Zarleyhawk on Dec 6, 2010 8:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Nope, I don't do that.

I was actually going to offer some words of encouragement until I saw that.

It's STILL Great to be a Florida Gator!
"Too many Urkels on this team, that's why our Wins-low." -Kanye West (slightly altered)

by Wayward Llama on Dec 6, 2010 8:36 AM PST up reply actions  

To be fair

A two-minute warning ceremony is retarded.

I suffer from IBS, otherwise known as "Influx of Billick Syndrome".

by SSreporters on Dec 6, 2010 9:32 AM PST up reply actions  

They could have done the ceremony at half-time

when half of the crowd was going for a piss and the other half of the crowd was standing in line for beer.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Dec 6, 2010 10:00 AM PST up reply actions  

Or before the game

Something like that.

I suffer from IBS, otherwise known as "Influx of Billick Syndrome".

by SSreporters on Dec 6, 2010 10:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Gotta be honest, if I was the visiting team, that shit would piss me off too.

Pre-game or halftime.

And I recognized that everyone would be running to the beer stands and bathrooms during that time— that’s what I do— but still, it’s during the game. Not a fan of the during a game retirement ceremony. Of course, I also think God Bless America during a pro baseball game is a terribly nationalistic overwrought piece of hoooey, particularly considering many people there, including players, may not be particularly religious, nor American.

"You tell me with confidence that you think Charlie could have done better and I will laugh beer in your face." JohnnyOsprey

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 6, 2010 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Carroll

I know how to spell his name. I swear.

by Zarleyhawk on Dec 6, 2010 8:23 AM PST reply actions  

Great win.

You wouldn’t have thought so by watching the first half but it was really great in all phases of the game. This season is now successful in that we have clearly seen improvement over last year, if only in record. I disagree however that Force should be getting more carries. He got more carries early in the year and was not all that impressive. Lynch is getting better as the line gets better. By the end of the year he will dispell all fears vis a vis our running game if the line stays healthy and we can pass enough to keep that safety out of the box.

John Hancock

by mrcoffee1969 on Dec 6, 2010 8:45 AM PST reply actions  

Russell Okung makes Walter Jones proud

God I love Okung.

I’m just glad we escaped with a win. Have we gotten to a good start ONCE this year? Same thing since 2008.

I still believe St. Louis wins the division but if we can win this weekend then my mindset will change.

I suffer from IBS, otherwise known as "Influx of Billick Syndrome".

by SSreporters on Dec 6, 2010 9:35 AM PST reply actions  

my favorite okung moment of the game

was after a play. following ther second lynch touchdown, i believe.
first player to reach beast in the endzone was okung.
he reached down and picked beast up a foot off the ground by the shoulder pads like he was a bag of groceries.
fired. up.

by roddychops on Dec 6, 2010 10:57 AM PST reply actions  

That was good.....

But his tackle after the INT was AWESOME.

by dankfranks on Dec 6, 2010 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

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