Fixing the Pass Rush, Part Two: Scheming the Secondary
After stymieing the front four, Jim Mora put some holes in the Seahawks secondary. I wasn't involved in the planning process for the West Coast Defense, but I would guess, through careful observation, that the secondary was designed to play in the passing lanes. All the talk about defenders playing the ball sounded heartening, but the execution was crippling. It was confusing watching players allow receptions but bound up and clap. Were they reassuring themselves after failure? It was too consistent; too steady and sincere.
The Seahawks secondary, the Seahawks linebackers and retreating ends, were not reassuring themselves after an obvious failure -- a completed pass -- no, they were celebrating an accomplishment. If Seattle could limit receptions, limit yards after catch, as Monte Kiffin once preached, it could eventually force interceptions. Um, no. That doesn't play in the modern NFL.
In 2009, an interception was thrown on just 3% of all pass attempts. An interception occurred about once per team per game. The value of an interception is 45 yards. That's about the net value of seven pass attempts or four completions. Seattle, attempting to force interceptions -it never did- allowed a 65.8% completion percentage. That would rank just behind the New England Patriots for seventh in the league.
In 2006, when it was less talented and wracked with injuries, but before the arrival of Mora, it allowed a completed pass on just 59.3% of attempts. That held in 2007, in no small part because of a terrible run of opposing quarterbacks, before ballooning in 2008 and 2009.
An average completion in 2009 was worth 10.78 yards. If a team attempts 33 passes, the average amount in 2009, and completes 65.8% of them, it will average 234 passing yards a game. If it completes 59.3%, it will average 211 passing yards per game. 234 yards on 33 attempts is 7.1 yards per attempt. That ranks 12-14 in the league, Arizona, Washington and Baltimore. 211 equals 6.4 yards an attempt, better than the Bills (23) and below the Titans (22). For Seattle to sacrifice that kind of completion percentage and the resulting yards per attempt, it would need to force half an interception more a game just to break even. And half an interception more a game, eight, is the difference between the Packers and the Redskins; the Colts and the Bears; the Jets and the Buccaneers. It's huge, a pie in the sky goal, that was never realistic, and that cost Seattle dearly.
And, as I stated, it just never happened. In fact, it probably couldn't happen, at least not to any appreciable effect. Building a defense around interceptions is building a defense destined to fail. Interceptions are extremely inconsistent, and no team has shown an ability to consistently force them. It's not that intercepting a pass is luck, it's that on a macro level, it's impossible to measure how much of it is skill. Instead, Seattle must concentrate on what it can control, completion and their length.
Fixing the secondary will take some talent. Maybe. It will take a scheme overhaul. Definitely. A simple solution is to run more man. Instead of limiting yards after catch, Seattle should attempt to limit catches. Limit receivers flashing open, become stingier over the middle and stop running easily negotiable zones. If not a straight man cover scheme, a zone system that plays the man would work. Flashing off the receiver and attempting to undercut the route, or force the fumble after the reception, is self-defeating. It overvalues the turnover, and assumes the team itself can greatly impact its ability to force that turnover. It can not and therefore should not make that a goal.
Kelly Jennings can not play the ball. Put him back in man cover, where he has some usefulness. Jennings used to show great stickiness playing the receiver, and though his limitations as a ball hawk will forever make him a target, the longer he can stay close to his man, the less likely he is to be targeted and the longer the pass rush has to develop. Or, if it's just hopeless, trade him and stop attempting to turn him into something he can't be. Jennings is pretty close to a finished product. Love him for what he is or move on.
Marcus Trufant can play the ball, not superbly but well, and his cover skills are recognized and revered. Put him in man cover, allow him to run with the receiver rather than reading and reacting and grabbing and tackling and drawing the flag.
Continue to refine Josh Wilson's coverage skills. He can flash as a zone corner, and is probably still destined to super-nickel status, but extend him to his ends. Lead him towards greatness even if he never reaches it. Don't settle.
Get the damn eighth man out of the box. It's perhaps the most stupidly self-defeating strategy in football. An occasional tackle for a loss is never, ever worth a lost body in coverage. Further, an eight-in-the-box approach thins a run defense, enabling it to attack at the point, but making it more susceptible to long runs. How about that? A defense that sacrifices the pass to defend the run that actually sacrifices the run, too. That's like pulling your goalie to play another goon.
And, finally, find another cover corner or two. If Seattle has a defensive need, especially following the disappearance of Ken Lucas, it's starting cornerback. A player that can overtake Jennings could have a domino effect, pushing Wilson to nickel and Jennings to dime, and that player wouldn't have to be a world beater. He would just have to average.
Seattle sucked stopping third down. It didn't have a great front four, but moreover, it attempted too often to cash in. It wagered what it thought was a better chance of forcing a turnover against a higher chance of allowing a completion and conversion. It's a losing bet in the modern NFL. The Seahawks were playing against percentages and lost. If it wants to improve the pass rush, it must lower opponent completion percentage, thereby forcing more third and long, and cashing in those third and longs the traditional way, by forcing a punt. Get those guys on their men, tighten coverage, buy an extra beat or two before the pass, and the Seahawks might just force a turnover anyway.
A strip-sack. Or, even better, a desperation interception. It would be nice to be on the other end of a few of those. I have become increasingly convinced that turnovers, the majority of turnovers, are a product of losing rather than a cause of losing, and should no more be sought out than time of possession or rushing attempts.
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Interesting
I have become increasingly convinced that turnovers, the majority of turnovers, are a product of losing rather than a cause of losing, and should no more be sought out than time of possession or rushing attempts.
I feel like what you said before about third and longs has a lot more to do with it. Putting the offense in a pressure situation. Losing puts the pressure on the offense too, but I think a good defense and third and longs can put just as much situational pressure on them.
No, no, no! A thousand times no he screams in agony!
The reason most teams lose is they punt the ball too much!
Mora or Bradley?
I know Mora emphasized turnovers, but how much defensive strategy came from Mora and how much came from Bradley? Should we assume that a Bradley free of Mora will abandon the focus on turnovers over limiting completions?
On a similar note, can we predict Carroll’s strategy here, and will Bradley again be game planning around the head coach’s strategy? (Assuming that was the entire story last season.)
Great read.
I especially would like to acknowledge the delicate way it was determined that Jennings should be no better than a Dime player and Wilson the Nickel. We can’t keep thinking that those players are going to magically transform into quality starters. They have proven otherwise. We do need to add one starting Corner.
I wish I knew more about the scheme they are going to run in order to better identify Corner prospects. A guy like Kyle Wilson intrigues me. What does the ‘Schneider Corner’ look like? Physical, able to play press coverage, and aggressive is the idea I have about it. Maybe some of the Corner/Safety tweeners (I loved Sean Smith last year) could be targeted if we do move to more of a GB-styled scheme or philosophy.
A Packer secondary is enticing
but he’ll find Carroll players, remember?
by jacobstevens on Feb 2, 2010 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
Seems to me that Wilson is at least a mediocre starter and potentially very good
But I think what John is saying is that IDEALLY he’d be better at nickel, and that the acquisition of even a mediocre “typical” corner (i.e. not so small) would allow this to happen.
As for Jennings, though, he sure seems out of place in a zone. I’d be surprised if he’s here come September.
I love this.
This is one thing I don’t thing Carroll will do, though. I think he’ll run cover-3 more than anything else.
Not a criticism...
You’re always very confident in what you write and how you write it, and I have no problem believing what you say. But it seems to strange to be able to come up with such an able critique of professional NFL coaches who are presumably quite knowledgeable and capable. I guess my question is, what accounts for this seemingly obvious breakdown in coaching smarts? Is mora really an idiot, or is he just guilty of overconfidence and hubris? Or is it that your analysis is so fully realized that your assertion only seems obvious?
by Moresoftness on Feb 2, 2010 11:38 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Also...
I’ve realized that this basic question could be posed to any journalist critiquing just about anything. I guess I’m just curious about mr. Morgan’s opinion.
by Moresoftness on Feb 2, 2010 12:03 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think you'll find lots of articles like this, but you'll also find that there is no access to the team
so it is mostly outside looking in – which is fine, but most of it just doesn’t match what ends up on the field.
Coaches
Often try to impliment a scheme immediatly after arriving in a new location. They use their own strategy, instead of looking to work with what they have, or building on what they have inherited. That may be the case here, but it may not be. It’s just something that seems rampant throughout the NFL these days.
They also expected a lot more out of Colin Cole
His sheer amount of suck was the domino that led to the defensive woes (because the tampa 2 scheme relies on heavy pressure from the front four … we only got got moderate pressure from 3).
6/14/40. Sweet.
That also speaks to the retention of Bradley and Quinn.
The won’t have to re-invent the wheel, necessarily, but changes had better be coming. Carroll being a defensive mind is comforting.
It always seems to me that John goes out of his way to emphasize
when his well-founded thoughts and observations aren’t established fact. I see this piece littered with language doing that.
As for the coaches, innovation is venerated but the status quo still has deep roots in the traditional game, where philosophies are comprised of truisms. So some of the tenets of football knowledge, to the establishment, are the ideas that true football can’t be captured by stats — ultimate team sport blah blah blah — and that only the guys in the trenches really know enough of the game to have any say in how it is to be played.
That sounds even to myself like an overly-simplified answer. But it bleeds out of the game, from coaches and players to scouts, to the beat reporters and greater media and blogosphere. People really believe in this stuff. And the stakes are enormously high, pressure enormously intense, and when it’s all a gamble anyway, it’s not that surprising for so many guys to cast their lot with the tried and true approaches than to the novel innovations. Coaches are adjusting to the new evolution of the game, but they are moving slowly. Just like religion and science and politics, the people in power or close to power progress slowly.
by jacobstevens on Feb 2, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
Hindsight has a strong presence in it I would think.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
Look at baseball.
It’s a sport where advanced statistics can be used to measure a players worth extremely accurately and no inside knowledge is needed. Access to stats like UZR, wOBA, and WAR are widely available but you still have guys like Dayton Moore who refuse to use them. The old school scout types are definitely dying out but process of weeding them out has been going on for years.
Baseball is much more cut and dry than football but that same spread of coaches and GMs on the cutting edge of advancement and those that are stuck in traditional strategies exists. The evolution of the game from a run first league to a pass first league probably widens that gap even more.
While this is the case, there is still a room and a need for the "old school" knowledge.
In baseball I almost see an almost Eastern/Western medicine aspect to the scout/stat argument, like going to far to one end brings you to Ramtha, and too far to the other end brings you to sterility… A balance needs to be struck, and I believe in Z we’ve gotten the guy with the right balance.
Regardless, the NFL seems to be moving far more slowly. You can count the “behind” baseball teams in one hand, and the more advanced are taking up more and more fingers and toes in the counting. Football seems far more copycat, which means at any time, 15+ copycats are behind the 8ball.
I would love to see someone who just said “the hell with it” and went for it on 4th down all game long and just frustrated the hell out of the other team. Would they lose some games by playing fast and loose? Sure. But they’d also win some, and damn, it’d be exciting!
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by whiskey chainsaw on Feb 2, 2010 5:10 PM PST up reply actions
The traditional baseball scouts aren't going anywhere, nor should they.
Statistical analysis should be used in conjunction with old fashioned scouting reports.
Right, I wasn't insinuating that scouts should go away completely
Just like I didn’t mean that NFL teams were going to stop running the ball completely.
Seems to me that the function of a scout is to determine what a player is capable of doing...
and the stats say what he has done.
They both have predictive value
Stats can be limited by small sample sizes though and in those cases scouting is especially important in determining what a player is capable of doing. But like Brian said, they should be used together where possible.
So, what's the deal with the safeties?
I’m assuming that, since Grant and Babs aren’t mentioned in the article, you’re not seeing them as part of the problem?
I’m not saying they are, though Grant is expensive and certainly getting up there in age.
How’s this for a first round: Berry at 6 and Mays at 14?
(just kidding)
Kill yourself for even insinuating that sort of draft.
For shame.
J/K
I’d be cool with Berry at 6, honestly. It took me a long, long time to warm to it, but I think if the scheme is changed and talent like Berry were added to the starting lineup, a lot of our defensive woes would fade. We wouldn’t magically become the Jets, but we’d be league average or better.
6/14/40. Sweet.
My concern is that
As good as Berry is in college (fucking good is the appropriate label) will he translate that level of competition to the NFL? A fraction of Berry is better than a lot of Safeties, but those were not 6 overall picks. This discussion took place in another thread I think.
by DJ C-Raig on Feb 2, 2010 1:00 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I agree, wholeheartedly
I don’t think I made my opinion clear enough.
When I said “I’d be cool with Berry” means that if Seattle drafted, I wouldn’t be upset. If I was the decision maker, I likely wouldn’t choose him if Seattle-QB-of-choice, Gerald McCoy or any other player was available.
I’m a pretty big believer that another talented DT and a secondary scheme shift will propel Seattle’s defense to at least league average, if not slightly above. We have so much young talent on our defense that I have a hard time believing it needs TONS of new blood to make it significantly better.
6/14/40. Sweet.
Watch berry's highlight reel
Most of the interceptions were very off target and lazy throws by true blue college QBs IMO. He’s not a lock in my book, but as was said, I wouldn’t be unhappy.
by paul2 on Feb 2, 2010 8:57 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
which supports my point and John's
You can’t predict future success by a good interception history in college (picking Berry at 6 is risky) or risk your franchise to get interceptions. QB throws in the NFL are not going to be flying so often in his face. But if he has the discipline, cover skills, head for the game, it is a position of need.
And I don't think you would draft him just to get interceptions.
It’s that he seems to have the whole package as a safety.
Also a die-hard Hawks fan.
by Hopefulmsfan on Feb 3, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
Seattle sucked stopping third down
Did we? Football Outsiders says we were middling on 3rd/4th. 18th defensive DVOA in the league, as compared to 29th overall.
I think simply switching to the man scheme will vastly improve our pass defense, and get us to league average-ish
6/14/40. Sweet.
Interceptions just seems so much more indicative of how the offense plays then how the defense plays
Or just a matter of the team with the most talent.
Looking at interception percentage, most of the teams with good to great quarterbacks are in the top half (as well as most winning teams). A couple big outliers are the Colts (20th) and the Jets (in terms of winning team, not QB) (31st). The Jets can be explained with their defense. Apparently the only way to offset an interception prone QB is a good defense and run game (which doesn’t say so much about Sanchez). Seems pretty common sense.
You could look at defensive schemes and see if certain schemes provide more interceptions, but I’m not going to do that. Interception percentage for the defense is a little less consistent.
The Bills (2), Panthers (4), Bucs (7) made the top ten and the Chargers (22), Steelers (25), Vikings (27), Cowboys (29), made the worst ten. The winners weren’t necessarily good at interceptions. A good question here is, were they bad because played more top QBs? Were other teams good because they played against a lot of bad Qbs? The Packers, for example (the top intercepting team), got 12 of their 30 interceptions off of only three QB’s. Cutler, Hasselbeck, and Stafford.
This warrants a deeper look, but I have to go back to work now.
Bad QB's mean more than anything else, in my honest opinion.
This works not only in regards to interceptions, but sacks too. Remember in 2005, when we had 55 sacks or something? Does anyone actually think this was because our defense was THAT good? Nope. It was because we played a host of horrendous QB’s that year. Well, that and our offense was ridiculous… allowing us big leads that forced said horrendous QB’s to pass to catch up.
Just to further John’s point, I’d argue that a lot of interceptions actually come when the outcome of the game has pretty much been decided (sacks, too).
We had the benefit of a ridiculously easy schedule.
And the Colts not playing their starters the whole game meant Sorgi time.
The Seattle Times linked to my website in June 2009. I wasn't aware of this until January 2010.
Wow, great read!
I don’t have time to read the comments, so if someone already asked, I apologize in advance.
John, (or anyone else for that matter), what trade value do you think Jennings might bring? I have a hard time picturing him bring anything higher than a 5th round pick, and I think that might even be generous. Which teams would be that desperate for a cornerback?
I’d like for him to stick. I’ve defended his coverage skills, but your description of him is spot on. That he is best as a man corner, and it’s likely we’ve seen him peak.
Talents that I covet:
Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Mike Iupati, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Freddie Barnes
Well theres Haden but he might not be there at 14.
It’s supposed to be a pretty deep corner draft, there might be a pretty talented corner at 40.
If...
We came out of the second round with a corner or a safety we should be very happy. If we come out with a corner and a safety we should be mad because it would be a waste of a good pick. If we come out with neither we can shrug and expect that one of those picks was a DT, a DE, or part of a trade for an elite pass rusher. If we come out with none of that I may think about rooting for another team.
Ken Lucas
DJ C-Raig asked in the first comment, what happened to Lucas?
I don’t claim to know exactly, but I want to pose a different question about Lucas. If, as I suspect, he lost just enough speed to be a non-factor as a corner, wouldn’t he be a prime candidate to convert to safety? On an admittedly surface level it just seems like he should be able to transition into a pretty good centerfielder.
I often wonder why this isn’t done more often with “bigger” corners, particularly those who have always been good against the run.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
I like it.
I don’t know if he is a non-factor at CB yet…but it’s a thought that I wouldn’t be against.
Interesting thought.
It’s worth a look. I do wish someone would’ve said what the heck happened to him though. He just vanished.
Also a die-hard Hawks fan.
by Hopefulmsfan on Feb 3, 2010 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
I think he gets banged up a little to easily to convert to Safety.
Maybe an ‘extra S/CB’ in Nickel or Dime packages, but not full-time.
Safety's quite a different position
Corner is more about reacting to one WR’s movements, and you shouldn’t look for the ball until the WRs hands move to catch it
Safety is more about reading the QBs eyes and seeing all the other WRs with your peripheral vision. It’s a difficult transition from CB to S and vice versa. I understand I didn’t explain that well!
I agree...
one difference though between the old traditional roles and today is that more and more teams are playing zones with their corners, which in theory is more similar to the traditional safety role, which in turn could lead to easier quicker transitions… not that Lucas would be an ideal candidate… just sayin’.
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by whiskey chainsaw on Feb 3, 2010 11:28 PM PST up reply actions
Lucas isn't under contract
Besides switching him or anyone from CB to safety has always been difficult. There have been some successful ones though. I really think John’s run down of the secondary was one of his more insightful pieces. So just dropping an atta boy to John, funny thing though is I just got a warning for my vehement disagreement with him on an earlier article. Oh well as in all things criticism goes with glory.

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