Seahawks Franchise Olindo Mare
by John Morgan on Feb 24, 2010 5:54 PM PST
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PrintSeems like just yesterday I was defending this signing.
Seattle has applied the franchise tag to franchise kicker Olindo Mare. He is one of the least appreciated players in pro football and perhaps one of the greatest kick off men in the history of the sport. So, in that sense, Mare is a smart signing. However, it's worth revisiting the list of candidates I compiled after Josh Brown signed with St. Louis.
Garrett Hartley: Oklahoma was second to Air Force at forcing touchbacks (29 in 104 attempts). Hartley has a "big" leg, which means he can kick the ball far - not that he suffers from dropsy. Best of all, he's not expected to be drafted.
Alex Trlica: Texas Tech forced 26 touchbacks in 92 attempts, presumably Trlica had something to do with that.
Chris Nendick: Once renowned for his accuracy, Nendick suffered from a slightly larger sample size. More important to us, Northern Illinois posted 16 touchbacks on just 50 attempts. Nendick is a true sleeper. Somehow, I mean that both sarcastically and seriously.
Steven Hauschka: If Hauschka can be lured away from dental school, he might be pro caliber. North Carolina State managed 12 touchbacks on just 57 attempts.
Taylor Mehlhaff: Mehlhaff is the top ranked kicker on many boards, a major red flag. Why spend a 6th round pick for someone who isn't provably better than a free agent? Still, Mehlhaff has the skills. Wisconsin posted 27 touchbacks on just 77 kickoffs.
I compiled this list after about an hour's worth of research. Hartley landed with the Saints. Trlica and Nendick are out of football [Editor's Note: Nendick plays for the Chicago Slaughter of the IFL]. Hauschka is a Falcon. Only Mehlhaff was drafted, and Mehlhaff is now a free agent. His sin? Missing an extra point.
Hauschka can not match Mare's touchback ability, but Hartley comes close. Neither was drafted because neither is Brandon Coutu-good at kicking field goals. Whatever happened to that guy?
My point: I figure college football produces a few kickers in every class that can nail touchbacks but are undervalued because of perceived inaccuracy. And if that is the case, one can't justify franchising a kicker, even a very good kicker, when a comparable talent can be had for free. Especially when the tag could be applied to a talent that can not be easily replaced, like Cory Redding.
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I kind of feel like a hypocrit but... yay Mare!
I know this isn’t the shrewdest roster move but it shouldn’t hurt the team and Mare is elite at what he does.
I don't think that makes you a hypocrite
I do think people that flipped Ruskell crap both for signing Mare and keeping Coutu probably have some answering to do. I think you either have to admit Ruskell was right for not overvaluing field goal percentage and taking a risk on a great kickoff man, or admit he was right for ensuring against the possibility that Mare would not be accurate. You can’t really complain about both.
Of course there's the third possibility:
Ruskell was saved from himself by a lucky run of field goals by Olindo Mare.
Wonder what people will do once he starts missing them again.
I'd like to give Ruskell credit for valueing kick offs
but he spent a draft pick on a kicker that was known for his field goal % and kept him on the team long after it was clear what both players were bringing to the table.
It was unforgivable losing Forsett.
Reading through those threads now. Remember “In Ruskell We Trust”?
He's had two pretty solid years with us
In terms of tag consideration, I just see his recent performance as tipping the scales against his previous inconsistency.
by DrunkAmerican on Feb 24, 2010 9:11 PM PST up reply actions
When do we attribute a streak to luck rather than skill?
by DrunkAmerican on Feb 24, 2010 9:28 PM PST up reply actions
It was lucky that he was good when he was, or else Seattle probably would have cut him and kept Coutu.
It’s not that a kicker is lucky when they make a kick, it’s that a kicker can not control when they are good, they can not control all the things that make them good, and being good for a season does not indicate they will be good the next season.
Think of a batter that over his entire career hits .300. If you were to narrow the sample to just 26 at bats, that hitter could seem like Babe Ruth or Willie Bloomquist. But you wouldn’t take those 26 at bats and change your opinion of the batter. All sorts of things could be impacting such a small sample.
Mare was good for 26 kicks. That has no impact over his next kick, nor is it a enough information to tell us if anything has fundamentally changed about him. His career pins him as a ~80% field goal kicker. That is who he is. Over a small enough sample, like his 17 attempts in 2007, he could be great or terrible.
And the samples vary with distance and weather.
Mare was 3-13 in the three years before he signed with Seattle from 50+ yards. He was 3-4 in 08. He didn’t kick a single one from 50+ last season.
It was a small sample, but the same could be said for any kicker
Mare had 26 attempts, which was 22nd in the league. The kicker with the most attempts had 37 (Akers). That’s 11 more, but it’s still a small sample. It’s also all we have. If you want to figure out when something “fundamentally” changes and base that on attempts that mimic baseball at-bats, it would take several decades to gather the data. Not sure what you can do, since this is all you have. I suppose a coach could watch the guy in practice, but I’m not sure how that relates to a game. I think that all a coach can do is judge the guy’s mental makeup, and also simply if the coach has confidence in the guy. That’s a key thing, the coach has to believe the guy gives them a chance when a FG is called for.
You said:
“Mare was good for 26 kicks. That has no impact over his next kick”
And while statistically this is certainly true in terms of random events, in kicking there’s a mental element that partially contradicts this. If a kicker starts to doubt himself, and starts thinking too much and changing things, a miss or several misses can absolutely have impact on the next kick. A streak can also have this impact. Seems like confidence is important.
Having said that, I think Mare has confidence (he recovered from missing several in one game and made the rest of his kicks that season), good statistics over his career, and a strong leg on kickoffs. Mental and physical strength and the confidence of the staff. Good combination, and I like the move.
The same is said for every kicker, which is why field goal percentage is a poor way to evaluate a kicker.
Confidence is an external factor. We all feel confident when we succeed and we all lose confidence when we fail. It has no provable impact on how a kicker performs.
Every kicker?
Mare had confidence in spite of failing. He missed those kicks and it didn’t matter. It is demonstrable that his confidence was not shaken by the misses and he didn’t go out and do something different to try and fix it. Another, less veteran guy, might have freaked and started changing things and over thinking.
I don’t know what it means for confidence to be “external”. It’s internal to the player. The player’s confidence, in the face of failure, is what makes him different. Mare understands the statistics. Misses didn’t bother him. A lesser kicker might be bothered.
Bogus pseudo psychology is bogus.
Guessing about a strangers mental state is foolish, at best. Mare missed kicks, then he made kicks, like hundreds of kickers before him. He will miss kicks in the future. He will make kicks in the future. His confidence as interpreted by fans is nothing more than subjective hogwash.
by John Morgan on Feb 25, 2010 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It makes sense that his streak is certainly not representative of who is is as a kicker
I guess I’m struggling with whether
Wonder what people will do once he starts missing them again.
means that he will begin to perform poorly or simply that his streak will just end. I don’t think anyone thinks that his streak is going to continue to a significant extent, so I have to assume the former. The last two seasons with us he’s gone 24 for 27 and 24 for 26. Because there exist so many intangibles in kicking, it seems plausible that his performance is rooted in something consistent that we’re unaware of (e.g. chemistry with the holder) and not necessarily luck (i.e. an inconsistent intangible).
In my opinion, his streak was lucky and was definitely inflated by his not attempting any kicks over 50 yards, but I’m not ready to definitively say that it was the product of luck. I wouldn’t be surprised if he continued this impressive trend nor if he didn’t.
by DrunkAmerican on Feb 25, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
A kicker that kicks 81.2% for his career will suffer a cold streak
and people who do not understand statistics, like Mora, will flip out.
by John Morgan on Feb 25, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
I agree with the assessment in tagging Mare.
But Redding can still be tagged.
Talents that I covet:
Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Mike Iupati, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Freddie Barnes
It could be worth a shot.
We should try and resign him first, of course. But if we can’t reach an agreement and put the transition tag on him, if he puts a poison pill in the contract, then we know that he doesn’t want to be here, if he doesn’t put in a poison pill and we match the offer, it should be fair value and we know we’re getting someone who wants to be here.
-
I know the transition tag doesn’t really protect talent from leaving, but if it cost nothing to slap one on, then why not do it just in case?
by Mind of no mind on Feb 24, 2010 9:38 PM PST up reply actions
Actually, a transition tag costs nearly as much as a franchise tag. $10.2 for ends.
But if the team was at all entertaining franchising Redding, it would make sense to transition tag him.
Ahh...
I didn’t realize it still cost that much money. Never mind then.
by Mind of no mind on Feb 24, 2010 9:48 PM PST up reply actions
Who would want to poison pill him away from Seattle?
Talents that I covet:
Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Mike Iupati, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Freddie Barnes
by Carl Shinyama on Feb 24, 2010 10:23 PM PST up reply actions
Redding isn't worth the money
I’d rather over pay on an aging free agent like Peppers than give that kind of money to Redding.
Give me an offensive line or give me death!
by Generzal Zod on Feb 24, 2010 11:49 PM PST up reply actions
Yay Mah-Ray!
The Seattle Times linked to my website in June 2009. I wasn't aware of this until January 2010.
MAH! RAY!
A pointless move as far as I can see. Sure he seems to be very very good, even at kicking field goals (right Mora?), but is he really going to walk like Brown, and will we really not be able to find just as good a kicker?
Well he is better than almost every other kicker in the league, so though it's possible to target kickers that excel at kickoffs
Seattle probably would have a worse kicker if it didn’t franchise Mare.
Well True...Actually, now that I think of it more, I like this move more.
One reason is because I have always (rashly) thougt that kickers were usually interchangable. But the main reason: If we take advantage of the draft and improve in competitivness from last year we should have more close games. More close games = more potentially game winning/tying kicks. Which means Mare would be better than most for that job.
But he had a pretty good year last year.
24 of 26 seems like a good percentage to me. One could argue that he’s only “on a hotstreak” but isn’t that still a good thing? If it’s working for him, lets keep that going, right? Or am I overestimating recent success?
Yeah, I just read your post above. Good points.
Now I don’t know what to think! I guess I’ll just have to wait until the season…
I think you should call.
There’s a great chance you hit that gutshot straight on the river.
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Feb 25, 2010 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
Your point is good, in theory
Even if you use kickoffs as the value point instead of field goal percentage: better offense equals more points equals more kickoffs equals more value from your touchback specialist.
Or so I assume. Wouldn’t a good kicker be most valuable to a team with a good offense? I don’t know, I’m still waking up.
I guess it’s that point in the offseason where the hot topic is marginal kicking value added. But hey, roster construction theory can be kind of fun if you’re into that sort of thing. I dig it, personally.
I don't even know what to think anymore!
But I would expect that a good kicker would be most valuable wherever he is. With a good offence he’d be able to get the touchbacks, and even clean up some of the drives that didn’t quite make it. On a defensive team I would guess that he would be half their offense because the actual offense wouldn’t be able to score many touchdowns, which also raises his value significantly. Not to mention against a defensive team good field position is huge.
I also like roster construction theory, actually, but some days i have to be in the mood. Y’know what I mean?
Not only was it foolish to move Redding to end, but it made him difficult to franchise
As ends cost $6.4 more than tackles, almost double.
Excuse me, that's actually $5.4 million.
by John Morgan on Feb 24, 2010 10:03 PM PST up reply actions
Couldn't the team still have had franchise him as a tackle
Because he is essentially a D tackle than a D end in most cases.
by Seahawksfan23 on Feb 25, 2010 7:10 AM PST up reply actions
While I'm happy that we'll still have Mare
and that the FO is beginning to make moves…I was hoping for a more exciting tag. No offense to the excellent play from Olindo.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
So, what are the reasons for not applying the tag to Redding instead?
His salary if tagged being much higher than that of a K? Is the team operating ‘as if’ there is a cap to such a degree that Redding was too expensive (I don’t believe that). Or, is Redding just not part of the team’s plans moving forward (likely)?
Tackle is a pressing need
which is why it would make sense to franchise Redding before the draft. If Seattle then fills their need at defensive tackle and decides to move on without Redding, they could always relinquish the tag.
With Mare, if Seattle is committed to him, they might as well just sign him to a long-term contract. Even if he later fell apart, which is unlikely, the signing bonus for a kicker is not so much as to damage the salary cap. Further, there isn’t the need, because kickers are readily available, and there isn’t any draft flexibility gained like there would be by franchising Redding. At most, you’re freeing up your seventh round pick, and that’s erroneously assuming the team would need to draft a kicker at all.
It’s a bad move. It’s not a terrible move. But it’s bad move.
There are 20 guys selling insurance or stocking shelves that could kick for the Hawks next year.
I’m not pleased with this from the outset, but I guess we’ll have to wait to see what happens.
Kicker isn't a position we need to worry about now
We know what we have with Mare and he is damn good at kick offs, his FG% is a problem for another day. I’d rather have an offense that can get on the board and a defense that can get off the field.
Give me an offensive line or give me death!
so I agree with it
Give me an offensive line or give me death!
by Generzal Zod on Feb 24, 2010 11:51 PM PST up reply actions
Yawn. Sad to say but this team has sapped my will to follow them closely in the offseason.
Come April when the draft rolls around, I’m in.
Free agency starts in earnest soon.
When this team starts getting deconstructed and rebuilt, I think you’ll tune in.
It's Great to be a Florida Gator!
"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett
by Wayward Llama on Feb 25, 2010 5:01 AM PST up reply actions
Do not expect anything much to happen in free agency.
Talents that I covet:
Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Mike Iupati, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Freddie Barnes
by Carl Shinyama on Feb 25, 2010 7:29 AM PST up reply actions
You don't expect the new bosses
to clean up this mess?
It's Great to be a Florida Gator!
"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett
by Wayward Llama on Feb 25, 2010 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Ugh
I feel like we’re entering a Mariners like dark ages after coming off a good run of success – we will be mired in mediocrity and ugliness as the team tries to figure things out. Hopefully having Paul Allen at the top means this doesn’t happen, but this offseason is filling me with so much dread.
I think they are avoiding that
We were mediocre, I think we are building long term, which means a lot of new faces. It kind of reminds me of what happened with the Blazers, I think it is more fitting as an Allen owner. Allen strikes me as an owner who won’t tolerate losing.
Give me an offensive line or give me death!
by Generzal Zod on Feb 25, 2010 8:18 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe there is something to this Kicker-Franchise Tag thing.
The Steelers just franchised their own Jeff Reed.
I can't argue with that.
But why are teams doing this if it’s such a foul move? Yes, the cost of tagging a Kicker is relatively inexpensive. I fail to see that as the (only) reason.
You are really enamored with this appeal to authority fallacy.
You made more or less the same argument when Seattle released Justin Forsett. Why are teams doing it if it’s a mistake, because teams make mistakes.
by John Morgan on Feb 25, 2010 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
No. I'm aware of the 'appeal to authority fallacy'.
Which is why I’m not making a statement like ‘the team must know what they’re doing’, etc. I’m trying to understand the move, plain and simple. I want to know why.
They overvalue past performance and stability.
From the horse’s mouth: “It is important to have continuity in the kicking game.”
I get the impression from this thread that kickers are bricklayers, not gladiators?
Is there really that little difference between the best of the best and a readily available replacement?
That's the nature of the beast, yes. Kickers are important. Teams should do what it takes to have the best one available,
but replacement level is very high. Teams should not overspend. The money is immaterial; that this will likely cost the team Redding, sucks. Or, if you will, Burleson. The Franchise Tag is very valuable, and that is the real loss of franchising Mare.
and the real gain of franchising him is we gain more...
Muuuuh-
RAY!!
by John Edwards on Feb 25, 2010 6:30 PM PST up reply actions
Would franchising Redding really be worth $10 mil?
DT play doesn’t often jump out at me when I’m watching games, so I’ll rely on the opinions of those who break down game tape. I realize that the free agent market will be limited due to the CBA problems and that Paul Allen’s loaded, but that’s still not cheap.
Capitulation.
A franchise Seahawk? The kicker gets it by default.
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