Random Super Bowl Thoughts

I really don't have a dog in this race, but it should be an exciting game. I'm actually going to watch the game on delay at the local public television station here in Columbia (SC). One of my colleagues invites viewers to rate the Super Bowl ads electronically. The winning ad's creators come to campus in the spring to accept the Cocky Award.

As for the matchup, I agree with Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats in that I'm mildly surprised that the Colts are such widespread favorites after so many people had them losing to the Jets. (I'm talking about the emerging media consensus more than the actual betting line.)

With roughly equal strength-of-schedule ratings, NO is better at passing (slightly), running (significantly), and forcing turnovers (significantly). But, Indy isn't faking the funk either. Their offense is practically equal to NOs and their defense is better overall, just less likely to force turnovers.

I'm going with NO in a close one, but this game looks a lot like a better version of XL, where either team could win in any kind of game. Add to that, the expected rain should help both passing games by slowing down the rush--as if they needed the help.

Here's what I like about NO:

1. NO is better positioned to get "cheap" points. NO can flip field position on explosive plays in more ways than Indy. Although the offenses are basically evenly matched, NO is much better on kickoff returns and forcing turnovers. In a game with two closely matched teams, the premium on cheap points goes way up.

2. NO is healthier. As of this writing, NO's only significant injury is Shockey--not insignificant, but not debilitating. Dwight Freeney is a devastating loss for Indy. If he plays he will likely be a non-factor. Although Indy's defense is no slouch without him, Freeney is really their only guy who can consistently flip field position. Mathis and Brock are both very good players, but taking away Freeney's production would be devastating for any team. Indy's scheme is predicated on generating quick, disruptive pressure with the front four to get a sack or force a quick (short) throw. I don't see them able to do that without Freeney (or with a terribly degraded Freeney).

Despite that, Indy may very well win--and easily at that. If they do, I suspect it will be because:

1. Manning goes off. He's probably the best player on the field at the most important position, and in football that matters. NO will try to get turnovers, and they better because they may not force any punts. It's worth noting again though, if things go to type both offenses should play well (and that's not even a knock on these defenses).

2. Indy flips field position with penalties. NO may be better constructed to make explosive plays in all three phases of the game, but Indy is better positioned to substitute penalty yards for non-offensive explosive plays. Indy is one of the league's least penalized teams and NO is about average. And remember, the SB officiating crew is an all-star crew. When a crew hasn't worked together you can expect more penalties. Add to that, Greg Williams running his lip about how NO is going to hit Manning at every opportunity. So you have to expect the officials to be hyper-vigilant for drive-lengthening illegal hits on the QB. If you take Williams at his word, you have to think the Saints are walking right into multiple 15-yard flags.