Seahawks Off-the-charts Awful in First Quarters of 2009
Following up to my Fixing the Pass Rush series, I calculated Seattle's drive stats for just the first quarter. Even in an epic blowout, NFL coaches do not let up in the first quarter. That means its "true" in the sense that both teams are playing their hardest to win, starters are in, and drives are designed to score points instead of kill clock. That also means first quarter-only drive stats are likely inflated in favor of the offense. Of course, I would have to calculate the entire NFL to be sure of that, but that's a task for tomorrow.
For tonight, something to chew on. Seattle's offense was pitiful in the first quarter, averaging only 19.2 yards a drive. That's off the charts bad. The Oakland Raiders, in all drives, ones to end the half, but not kneel downs; ones to kill the clock in the fourth quarter, averaged over two more yards per drive: 21.35. The next worse, the Cleveland Browns, averaged over a yard more per drive than the Raiders: 22.67.
If Seattle averaged that kind of drive throughout the game, it would amass 3,667 yards of total offense for the entire season or about 800 fewer yards than the St. Louis Rams. That's worse than 12 quarterbacks, and a yard more than Jay Cutler. Unlike Cutler, Seattle gets credit for penalties.
Further putting pressure on the defense, the Seahawks scored only seven times to end a drive: four touchdowns and three field goals. It fumbled seven times, threw an interception four times, twice turned the ball over on downs and punted 26 times. That was one shit-tay offense.
The defense wasn't any great shakes either, illuminating just how bad this entire team was. Of course, how we perceive the defense (and the offense) might change after compiling the numbers for all teams, but again it seems likely that offense would be boosted and therefore Seattle's defense would fall closer to middle of the pack.
The Seahawks defense allowed 33.7 yards per drive in the first quarter. That's not off the charts, but it's bad. Seattle would rank 30th after Cleveland, who allowed 33.43 yards per drive. It allowed 15 touch downs, six field goal attempts, forced 18 punts, three interceptions, two turnovers on downs and zero fumbles.
This is incomplete until I chart the entire league. Despite logical reasons why teams would have longer drives in the first quarter than the entire game, I'm not certain that's true, and that information could end up making either offense or defense better or worse.
There are numerous reasons why Seattle was terrible in the first quarter, most frustratingly because it often seemed unprepared. One must only consider the Texans 64 yard opening "drive", Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson for 64 and the score, to recognize how flatfooted Seattle started games. Houston quick-snapped Seattle and caught the Seahawks secondary looking. The other major reason, the more important reason going forward, is that Seattle's offense fattened its stats late in games after any semblance of competition was over. However bad this offense looks on paper, and DVOA ranks them 29th, they were worse than even that.
Seattle performed worse on both sides of the ball in the first quarter than it did for the entirety of the game. That's an apples and oranges comparison for now, but one I hope to rectify tomorrow. For tonight, your memory doesn't deceive you. The 2009 Seahawks were indeed staggeringly awful in the first quarter. A little better luck, or a lot better preparation, and Seattle could perform better without being better.
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The opening possession of the season set the tone
Either a frustrating three-and-out, or in this case, an interception.
Next week? Three-and-out and a sack.
Mora took a team that under Holmgren just about always started badly on the road, and stretched it to a 16 game schedule.
The Seattle Times linked to my website in June 2009. I wasn't aware of this until January 2010.
It's always great to turn on a Seahawks game and then wanting to turn to the Red Zone channel within the first 15 minutes.
The first quarter was really frustrating this year even in the blowout games.
by seattle_since_81 on Feb 5, 2010 9:46 PM PST reply actions
I would like to know how the defense performed after the offense went 3 and out or
had a quick turnover vs. taking the field after the offense sustained a drive.
I would also like to know the number 3rd down and 5 (or greater) our opponents converted to 1st downs via the pass compared to the rest of the league.
Unfortunately, I think we will find the offense burdened a defense that was already atrocious.
Your last sentence sums it all up.
Which makes it easy for me to get excited about next season. There is obviously a lot to fix, but it won’t take much to turn us into an average team.
by sadface on Feb 6, 2010 3:51 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I don't believe that our defense was atrocious,
but they (esp the pass rush) were not good enough to make up for a horrid offense.
What? No SOUL?
Thanks for numbers to corroborate the intuition
that the Seahawks’ offense was staggeringly, epically bad in the first quarter.
On the assumption that offenses probably do better in the first quarter: I think a possible complicating factor might be the tendency of a lot of coaches to run x number of scripted offensive plays to start a game. I wouldn’t presume to guess which way this tendency might affect the numbers, but it seems like a significant variable that could mess with the results. I guess defenses do this too, which adds further variables. But anyway, when you’re looking into first-quarter offensive numbers from around the league, it might be handy to differentiate between those teams that script their first-quarter offensive plays and those that don’t.
Seahawks Off-the-charts Awful in First Quarters of 2009
Yes they were. This was, I believe one of the top reasons that Mora was sht-canned. This (imo) more than anything else is an indicator that your team was not prepared for the opponent. It is the coaches’ job to prepare the team and Jimmy, while a nice man and a fine citizen showed himself to be a piss-poor coach.
What? No SOUL?
John, Where do you get all your statistical data?
Is there a site that easily condenses this info so you can pull in mass and do your own analysis or do you have to get little pieces and string them together yourself?
I was worried that was the case
It would be great if you could get a raw data dump from nfl.com or someplace similar. I imagine you can for a price.
Amazing news!
Seattle wasn’t off the charts bad after all (although still staggeringly awful). I just got through getting 1st quarter offensive drive stats for some of the other bottom dwellers on the FO list and Seattle isn’t the worst.
Oakland: 19.4 yards per drive
Cleveland: 24.3 yards per drive
Buffalo 22.8 yards per drive
Kansas City: 18.4 yards per drive
Kansas City comes in nearly a full yard worse than the Hawks.
This doesn't surprise me
John was comparing first drive stats to overall drive stats on the assumption that overall drive stat numbers are usually lower. That’s pretty presumptuous, and it makes the “off-the-chart” headline pretty cringe-worthy.
Comparison with 2005
I seem to remember that during the Superbowl season, the Hawks started most of the games up 7 to 10 points and finished among the best in points per game allowed, putting the defense into a better position to succeed. Hopefully we do go offense with our first two picks of the draft and begin to start games quickly as opposed to what we’ve endured the past couple seasons.

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