The Prospects of Brandon Marshall

For the about the last week, Field Gulls and other, lesser sports sites have been set ablaze with the prospects of Seattle acquiring Brandon Marshall from the Denver Broncos. As a Seahawks fan, I can say that I was on the computer most of Friday and Saturday trying to get an idea of what people were saying about this. Am I excited as hell about the idea of having a threat like Marshall on our team? Yes, yes I am. But as I was reading the various threads, articles, and sometimes tweets pertaining to this story, four questions continually pestered me. Do we want Brandon Marshall? What about his reputation? Who is our competition? What is the cost? Though I am not an "insider" and don't have any connections to anyone in the league, I want to sort this out as logically as I can with the information I do have from the internet.

Do we want Brandon Marshall?

As far as football playing goes, who wouldn't? He has been one of the most dominant receivers in the game over the last three years, catching 307 passes over that span, as well as amassing 3710 yards and 23 touchdowns. He not only has great hands, but is very graceful for a receiver his size (6-4 230lbs.). He would be a deep threat that the Seahawks haven't had in a while. A Seahawk fan can only dream of having him on the same offense as T.J. Houshmanzadeh and John Carlson. We would just need a capable QB, LT, and game plan, and we should be pretty respectable.

What about his reputation?

Brandon Marshall has become pretty infamous around the league for his off field antics. He has even earned the nickname baby T.O. Though Owens was a problem in the locker room, Marshall has been a problem off the field. Marshall has had many run ins with the law, mainly because of domestic violence. I think a more fair comparison would be Randy Moss. Here is a record of Marshall's legal troubles.

My main concern with Marshall is the company he keeps off the field. I think the change of scenery could be very good for him. Whether it factors or not, Seattle's roster if full of good guys from the Ruskell years, who would surely be a good influence on him. Also, from what I know about Pete Carroll, he usually deals well with people who have a Tupac-ian view of life. In fact, he usually has an easier time dealing with these kind of people if you note all the communities he reached out to in Los Angeles. Of course, this is all speculative, but it is something to think about.

Who is our competition?

At the moment, I believe pretty adamantly that we can break down our competition for Marshall into three categories: Possible, Doubtful, and Highly Unlikely. The chances for teams in the highly unlikely category to trade or sign Marshall are literally next to none. In my opinion, they can be considered eliminated from contention. Doubtful teams are probably not going to make a run for him. Possible teams are our closest competition. After looking at the league, here is how I see it breaking down.

Highly Unlikely: Eagles, Giants, Vikings, Lions, Packers, Saints, Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, Rams, Patriots, Bills, Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Colts, Texans, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Chiefs (22 teams)

Doubtful: Cowboys, Redskins, Bucs, 49ers, Dolphins, Jaguars (6 teams). I figure you can't really ever completely count the Cowboys or Redskins out, but I really think neither will pull the trigger. The Bucs, Dolphins, and Jaguars need a Wide Receiver and have some picks, but that is the extent of it. The 49ers also probably will not do anything, but they could hurt the Seahawks by trying to drive up the price, they also have 2 first round picks.

Possible: Jets and Bears (2 teams). The Bears are already at a disadvantage because they don't have until the 75th in the third round. But they have a serious need at receiver and have been spending money, so, who knows? The Jets, I think are the closest thing that we have to competition for Marshall at all. It would be harder for them to trade for Marshall because they play in the same conference. Plus, they could look to the draft for someone like Golden Tate. I don't think the Jets really would want to trade a first rounder for Marshall either.

So, there you have it. Are only true competition for Marshall is the Jets, and they are in a distant second. In fact, Marshall hasn't even visited them yet, who knows if he want to play for them, or if they really are serious about him. I think this is obviously enormous leverage for the Seahawks because the market for Marshall is extremely thin.

What is the cost?

I think it is pretty evident that Seattle will not give up their 6th overall pick for Marshall, otherwise they would have signed him straight up to an offer sheet last Saturday. There are two things we can look at from the market's perspective to determine price, among other things.

The first is the market for Marshall, which we have already established. Basic economic principals say that if something is not in high demand, its value decreases. Brandon Marshall is not in high demand, meaning his value has hypothetically decreased.

Second, we can look at the Boldin trade as an indicator to how much Marshall is worth. They are somewhat similar receivers with similar numbers. Marshall might have more upside than Boldin and be less of an injury, but his history off the field offsets that for the most part. Boldin was traded to Baltimore last week along with a 5th (159th overall) for the Ravens 3rd (88th) and 4th (124th) round picks in the draft. The value for the 5th round pick according to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart is 28.8. The value for the picks the Ravens sent are 150 for the third and 48 for the 4th. Together, the picks the Ravens traded for Boldin are worth a combined 198 points. To equate Boldin's worth to a single draft pick, we will subtract 28.8 from 198. This ends up equaling 169.2, or about the 84th pick in the draft, which is mid 3rd round. Here is the chart.

Using this logic, I think a fair price for Marshall might be a 4th this year, along with Deion Branch, and a conditional pick next year for Marshall and a 5th. Something along those lines. The point is that it would be absolutely preposterous to trade any 1st round pick for Marshall. I think it is still a little bit of a reach for a 2nd, but would be pretty happy with it overall, because as good as he might be, the market has dictated his value, and it is not worth a first. It is now up to Seattle to play it smart like they have been and wait for the right time to pick up Marshall and not over pay for him.

Or they just made not trade him, and if that is the case, nevermind then.