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In Defense of Taylor Mays

( I wrote this a while back but shelved it. Sometimes I will write something to wrap my head around an idea, but decide against posting it. In light of some thinking I was making light of SBN's official mock draft, or selecting Taylor Mays because I had a bone to pick with the FO, I thought I would post this. Mays is not my preference at six. I am not sure I would select him at 14. In fact, about a year and a half ago, I said Mays future is as a linebacker. That does not mean he is a bad football player or certain to bust. It just means that whoever drafts him must be open and adaptable to what Mays can do, and not try to shoehorn him into a position he is incapable of filling.)

Why do draft picks bust? Many bust because of injury. Injury is one of the hardest things to predict in pro sports, and many picks never make it because of career ending or career altering injuries. The latter is less recognized, but careers do not always end on a stretcher. Sometimes it is a series of debilitating injuries that one by one chip away at a player's talent. I have often wondered if the Glenn Dorsey that dominated in 2007 is the same Glenn Dorsey that Kansas City drafted in 2008. That was his best season, and his body paid a heavy toll.

Some bust because of their character. Maurice Clarett embodies every character concern a player can have. He feuded with his coaches at Ohio State and seems naturally antagonistic towards authority. He battled weight problems and seems disinclined to hard work. He was arrested several times and is currently imprisoned. Worst of all, Clarett writes a blog.

The worst bust is the bust that results from overestimating a player's ability. JaMarcus Russell is an excellent example of a player that was overestimated for the wrong reasons. He is a tools-first prospect that plays a skills-first position. All positions require some skill. That is precisely why many are wary about Jason Pierre-Paul. He has loads of talent but has shown little ability to harness that talent. Paul must become an entirely different player to succeed in the NFL. That kind of transformation rarely happens.

Rarely does a player prove himself to be one thing in college but succeeds in the NFL as something completely different. Ball hawking corners can become better ball hawking corners. If a team drafts them into a system that emphasizes man coverage, like the Arizona Cardinals, that corner is likely to fail. Run-stuffing defensive tackles stay run-stuffing defensive tackles. Indianapolis will not draft Terrence Cody.

If Seattle drafts Taylor Mays and forces him to regularly play cover 1, Mays will fail. It is no mystery that Mays has poor cover skills, both his ability to track the ball and redirect to intercept it. If Seattle drafts Mays and plays Mays like Mora played Brian Russell, Mays will fail. I could go on. Mays is not versatile. He does not have a complete skill set for a safety. He will never be able to walk up to the line and cover a slot receiver man-to-man like Eric Berry will.

Mays is risky, and Mays may bust, but Taylor Mays is not a bad talent, a bad player and is not destined to bust. Whoever drafts him, and Seattle has to be the favorite, must play Mays to his strengths. He can be powerful weapon, but only if he is seen for what he is, not what his coach wants him to be.

Star-divide

Taylor Mays can blitz: The beauty of the safety blitz is it is often unblocked. When it is blocked, it is usually blocked by a back. The weakness of the safety blitz is spelled out in its name: A safety is blitzing. Most quarterbacks are bigger and stronger than a safety and can shrug off the pressure or outlet pass. A safety blitz can but rarely does intimidate.

Mays is not credited with a single sack at USC, but I assume it is because seeing Mays fire into the backfield untouched produces panicked throw aways. I've seen them, so I know they exist. One hit by Mays could end a quarterback's career. His mix of size and speed is unparalleled for his position. The force he would generate with a 10 to 20 yard running start is frighteningly awesome. Mays can cause fear, and though we may never know how much fear plays a part in football, Michael Crabtree can attest it does.

Taylor Mays has a linebacker's presence in the box: Deon Grant rarely fought through blocks. He could avoid blocks. He could engage blocks. But he never made much sense in the box. Grant was thin and rangy and tall and fought through blockers like one would expect a thin and rangy and tall player to. That made Grant an all or nothing presence as a run stopper. He could occasionally fight in for a tackle, but when he didn't, playing so close only thinned and weakened Seattle's run defense.

Mays is linebacker size and strong as hell. He can fight through fullbacks, pulling lineman and stuff as well as tackle runners. For any team that wants to keep a safety in the box, or run something like a modern 46 defense, Mays is a perfect fit. He is a linebacker with the added ability to turn and run and retreat into a deep zone. In that way, he is a little like young Brian Urlacher, neither totally a linebacker nor a safety but with enough power to play close and enough speed to drop into deep cover.

Taylor Mays could control the deep middle in a cover 3: Mays has sideline to sideline range, but when he reads wrong, he is beat because he has little ability to redirect. The key for him then is to keep the range of responsibility small, but allow him to play on the edges when and only when he is joining another defensive back in a double team. By playing primarily in a cover 3, Mays is only responsible to control the deep middle.

If Tampa Bay drafted DeMarcus Ware, Ware would be a bust. If Pittsburgh drafted Tommie Harris, Harris would be a bust. Ware and Harris fit special roles within very different schemes. Coaches know enough to not attempt to force an undersized tackle into a position where he must control offensive linemen, but they do not always know how to best unlock a player's potential. Julian Peterson played end at Michigan State, but was drafted to play linebacker in the pros. It wasn't until Seattle signed him that his true talent was unlocked. John Marshall turned him into a situational defensive end and Peterson was a terror.

Whatever the scuttlebutt, Mays is not a sure bust nor destined to fail. He is not likely to become a player he has never been before, either. He will not turn into a bigger Troy Polamalu. Just because he is a fearsome hitter does not mean he will turn into Kenny Easley or Ronnie Lott. Mays can become what he is, but better. He could become a bigger, faster and more powerful Dave Duerson. He could become an in the box safety with the presence of a linebacker, the blitzing ability of a rush linebacker, and the drop back skills of safety.

Coaches are paid millions to make talents like Taylor Mays successful professionals. It might take some adjustment, some creative thinking, but maximizing talent is job one for a coach. Wes Welker was not destined to be a great player. Ray Rice could have been just another scatback. Jerry Rice would have never made it in a vertical passing attack. Many fixate on Mays limitations. They see Mays for what he has been and what he can't be. Turning a 6'3", 230 pound, athletic wonder, with sensational speed, jumping and strength, that has started four years in a major athletic conference, and is known as a hard worker and passionate, turning Taylor Mays into a good football player should be within an NFL head coach's ability.

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Intriguing

I think you’re right that a lot of people focus too much on his weaknesses, and not enough on his strengths. However, I think you overstate his deficiencies in cover situations. I view him as merely an average cover safety, which when viewed in contrast with his awesome physical abilities, makes him look weak. I don’t think he’d be a bust in cover 1 or cover 2, he’d probably tend to be only average. Which given his draft position may be a relative bust.

by ColumbiaRob on Mar 26, 2010 11:50 AM PDT reply actions  

And thanks for throwing in a curveball

to all the draft geeks who take this stuff way too seriously. I love to see out of the box thinking. It’s what makes mock drafts so fun.

by ColumbiaRob on Mar 26, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Very nice write up

I would have loved for this to be posted before you were wrongly criticized for your selection in the mock draft. Only because of that does it seem more apologist then it should. I still feel Mays is a HUGE reach at 6 but one that PC might very well make.

by Hancock.Brett on Mar 26, 2010 11:54 AM PDT reply actions  

The people that criticized the choice didn't read the entirety of the article

And it was quite evident. John said: “I would choose Berry, Carroll would choose Mays”. Everyone glossed over that fact (which is critical and disarming of judgement).

Also: Picking him at 6 would be a huge mistake because it’s 99% likely he’d be available at 14.

6/14/60. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 26, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree

I was trying to say that the timing of the post came off as a way to answer the critics on Mocking The Draft when they didn’t need to be addressed. I know that wasn’t John’s intent but that was a hang up that I had.

by Hancock.Brett on Mar 26, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

In the SBN draft

I was not trying to game the draft and win the best class. I wanted to honestly represent how I thought the Seahawks graded players.

by John Morgan on Mar 26, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmmm ... but it's a draft

And the draft is not only about drafting your #1 guy, but drafting him at the time and draft position, and weighing the risks of “waiting”.

The SBN exercise was not a big board. If it was, your pick of Mays @ 6 would make sense. Mays could easily be had at 14, and I think PC/JS feel the same. Your view could be different!

6/14/60. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 26, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ahhh. With that view, I could understand PC drafting him at 6.

Would drafting him be dangerous? I mean … we don’t have another safety, to play alongside Mays, that could mask his deficiencies in coverage.

If the Hawks DID draft Mays, wouldn’t the coverage in the secondary just get worse? Or would Mays be a rotational safety played on “obvious running downs”? (if such downs exist. )

6/14/60. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 26, 2010 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oddly enough, it might improve

if he could be a productive blitzer, or have a quick drop back out of a blitz look.

by ColumbiaRob on Mar 26, 2010 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure.

It’s not like a punishing, in the box safety is a major innovation. Seattle would not need to tailor its entire defense around Mays. It was already playing Grant in very much the same position it would play Mays. He could blitz. He could play in Cover 3. Bob Sanders plays primarily in the box. If I presented Mays as bigger, faster, more powerful and more durable Bob Sanders, I do not think anyone would question if he is worthy a top ten pick. Mays is not a great cover safety. He still has amazing ability.

by John Morgan on Mar 26, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bob Sanders value stems almost completely

From the Colts undersized Tampa 2 defense’s incapability to stop the run when he’s not on the field.

Not to mention his “durability issues” stems for a goodly part exactly from the role he plays.

As an unproven blitzer, Mays only guaranteed value would come from supporting what’s already a solid run D? I think our secondary needs more help.

by Thomas Beekers on Mar 26, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I still wouldn't.

There’s Earl Thomas, who can be had at #14. There’s a considerable difference with size, but also a considerable difference in play.

Talents that I covet:

Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Mike Iupati, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Freddie Barnes

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 26, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thomas is almost a corner

He is not what Seattle is looking for from a dominant, in-the-box safety.

by John Morgan on Mar 26, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well can't Babs play strong safety and move up in the box?

I feel like Thomas could make a huge impact in coverage creating turnovers.

by Hawkhammer19 on Mar 26, 2010 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

That could happen, if you like Babs in that role.

I’m not sure he works, honestly. He has never been particularly assignment correct, and in the box safety is a high leverage position. A team can destroy the run or be destroyed by the run based on how alert and accurate a safety plays. I don’t know Babs future with the team, or which position Carroll puts more emphasis on. If he was just working from last year’s tape, I do not think he would have confidence in Babineaux.

by John Morgan on Mar 26, 2010 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yea it really depends on how much Carroll values an in-the-box safety

I somehow thought you were opposed to consistently using one though.

by Hawkhammer19 on Mar 26, 2010 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would build a team around pass offense and pass defense.

I think Carroll puts more emphasis on running and stopping the run. I do not like in the box safeties, but it’s not a fundamentally flawed strategy or anything. It can work. It has its uses.

by John Morgan on Mar 26, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

That scares me a little about Carroll's preference (please no more Cole).

One thing that bothers me about Mays is he’s not as good as separating the man from the ball as you’d think. He’s so big that he mostly collides with the receiver’s head and shoulders where a smaller safety like Thomas collides with the receiver’s chest where the ball is being secured.

This also seems to come into play with forced fumbles. Mays only has one career forced fumble in four years where Thomas has five career forced fumbles in two years.

It really comes down to how much does fear really factor into things. For me, not enough, especially in the playoffs when guys are willing to lay everything out on the line.

by Hawkhammer19 on Mar 26, 2010 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh I dunno

Playoffs or no, it’ll be funny to see if Crabtree even dares catches balls anymore if Mays is on the field :P

by Thomas Beekers on Mar 26, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Seems like you're talking about someone who can shoot through the gaps, among other things, concerning in-the-box.

But he’s really not bad against the run. I’d definitely put him as someone who is a help/support type of a safety vs. the run. I know for a fact that he’s lined up against TE’s and held his own.

I guess my idea of what the Seahawks want and/or need at safety differs from what the FO has in mind. I am thinking of safeties with range, rather than in the box.

But following your statement, I tried to think of other safeties who are good at in-the-box, and the only other name that comes to mind is Chad Jones, from LSU. Perhaps he is a possible option.

Talents that I covet:

Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Mike Iupati, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Freddie Barnes

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 26, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

That is, if we're trying to get inside the minds of Carroll and Co.

Talents that I covet:

Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Mike Iupati, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Freddie Barnes

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 26, 2010 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Taylor Mays has plenty of range.

Now his decision-making in coverage, that’s another story.

by Cannonater on Mar 27, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's what I meant, actually.

I should have worded it differently.

Well, actually, in fact, I have said in an above post:

Mays has the athletic ability, but having watched the decisions that he makes in college, I am very, very wary of him.

Talents that I covet:

Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Sam Bradford, Mike Iupati, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Freddie Barnes

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 27, 2010 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Instincts, ball-skills, and football I.Q. are all great traits for a Safety prospect.

It’s too bad Mays rarely displays a whiff of those attributes in coverage of any type. I’m not just wary of him. I’m nearly terrified of us drafting him.

by Misfit74 on Mar 27, 2010 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pete Carrol grading Mays higher than Berry is certainly possible

But oddly enough, I suspect the man is more familiar with Mays than we are, and knows his limitations well enough to know he’d be a reach.

On top of which, the argument stops at “the Seahawks FO would take Mays over Berry”. This does not in any way indicate the Seattle FO would take Mays at 6. It might mean they would take neither at six. It’s a rather incomplete argument.

by Thomas Beekers on Mar 26, 2010 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why? Based on what?

Have we seen PC lay down a foundation of over-drafting players? Does Schneider have a terrible reputation as a draft evaluator?

I simply do not understand where this overwhelming negativity vs PC comes from. Yes he’s upset and confused us with some free agent moves, but it seems like you guys are all set to label him bust and move on.

by Thomas Beekers on Mar 26, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Dead right

Mays has a lot of skills that could be utilized in specific situations. I’ve been talking to a Packers fan friend of mine who would love his team drafting Mays simply because he fits well with the identity they’re currently targeting as a defense.

I think a key point here is – of course – how much you’re willing to give up for a “role” player, no matter how good. I would argue that by their cover skillsets and wider range of options, Berry and Earl Thomas are justifiably higher picks than Mays. That doesn’t mean Mays is a bad player, it means his skillset doesn’t have a lot of value in the NFL: his mugging won’t go, his bad angling will take a while to fix, and his value as a run-stopper is limited simply because run-stopping has limited value.

A great role player for a team that knows what it’s drafting, late in the 1st.

by Thomas Beekers on Mar 26, 2010 11:58 AM PDT reply actions  

The problem with community mock drafts is this – Some people draft based on what they think the team will do. Some people draft based on what they think the team should do. Sometimes it’s better to have a singular mindset when you’re doing these things (which ultimately end up being pointless anyway).

When I first saw your pick of Mays, I thought you were blowing the mock for some reason. But then I read the description. And then I thought about it more. And it makes sense. You were inside the head of Pete Carroll and not a fan.

Whether fans like it or not, teams are going to draft the player they want. Whether that’s Al Davis drafting Jason Pierre-Paul solely because he’s big and fast or Jacksonville taking Tim Tebow because he’ll sell tickets, that’s the truth.

Popular opinion tells us that Mays at six, JPP at eight and Tebow at 10 don’t make sense. But what makes our opinion better than someone who does it for a living? Nothing really.

Mocking the Draft: Your NFL Draft source.

by Dan Kadar on Mar 26, 2010 12:46 PM PDT reply actions   3 recs

And popular opinion doesn't mean anything on draft day.

Nor conventional wisdom. Picks like this happen every year.

Nice post.

by cashless on Mar 26, 2010 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wonder if whomever drafts Mays won't just convert him

into a LB, the way Carolina converted Thomas Davis.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Mar 26, 2010 1:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Well that would coincide with moving Curry to pass rusher

We kept Curry back in coverage at LB, neutralizing his ability to apply speed/size in the pass rush. We’ve traded Tapp, vacating a pass rushing position, and if Curry ascends to that role, will have created a cover/LB vacancy.

Maybe they’re looking at moving Curry to a more end/rush role, and Mays to take over for Curry’s cover role from last year? I’m guessing as bad as Mays has been pilloried, for a LB he’d probably have elite coverage ability.

by Attylathehawk on Mar 26, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps there is no reducing snaps

When Carroll busts out the “Elephant”, perhaps Mays grows into the next Clemons?

He has the body for such a role, no?

As a side note, I must say I find the concept of drafting Mays fascinating. This blog spent the better part of last season discussing why stopping the run provided little value as opposed to rushing the quarterback. Unless Mays increases sacks, I see no improvement in the defense with this pick.

It is what it is...

by kidder95 on Mar 26, 2010 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

In the "Elephant" example above

Mays would play the “Elephant”, Curry OLB, and Hill would come out. If I remember right, Hill was coming off on 3rd down quite a bit last year.

It is what it is...

by kidder95 on Mar 26, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mock Draft groupthink amuses me

Everybody gets their info from the same half dozen news sources, then we read analysis and mock drafts based on those, then we post on message boards and blogs… classic echo chamber.

I know what I think about Mays, I wouldn’t draft him with 6 or 14. But then I’m the guy who screamed “REEEAAACCCHH” when the Titans drafted Chris Johnson.

I’m getting tired of draft coverage, I’m ready for the draft.

by cro-mag! on Mar 26, 2010 2:19 PM PDT reply actions  

I feel the same way

Yet, by the 2nd week in May, I’m craving all the gossip and angst associated with the initial two months of the off season. OCD perhaps?

It is what it is...

by kidder95 on Mar 26, 2010 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Amen brother

I’ll be slamming beers with the best of them, cheering for the Hawks and holding onto hope that we’re getting the next big star =)

I’ll always love my Hawks, no matter who owns or runs the franchise (unless it’s Clay Bennett. Fuck that asshole.)

6/14/60. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 26, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Very well done John

I enjoyed reading this piece. My only question, and it’s largely irrelevant to the topic at hand, was this sentence:

If Tampa Bay drafted DeMarcus Ware, Ware would be a bust.

Do you not think Ware could be a great 4-3 defensive end? If so, why not? I think he has all of the skills and more required to succeed. If you were referring to Ware playing as a Tampa-2 outside linebacker that would seem to make a lot more sense as he’d obviously be a very poor fit there.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 26, 2010 3:43 PM PDT reply actions  

I was thinking outside linebacker

I think he would struggle holding up against the run as an end, but that weakness can be overstated. His particular skills seem best suited for rush linebacker.

by John Morgan on Mar 26, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Two things.

1st, from the way Carroll describes his defense, his philosophy, his approach, I believe he’s going to really stick with the kind of defense he ran at USC most recently, and he did run out of a cover-3 shell. Blue-max can verify this, and whether it pre-dated Mays, probably. If it was possibly for Mays, though, I can still see that working, as you described.

The next thing, partially facetious, and wouldn’t be not reckless, is the yet unfounded idea that Curry will move up to replace Tapp. It’s conjecture but I strongly, strongly suspect it will come to pass. Mays could be a replacement for Curry at SLB. We have replacements at hand, and have a bigger need at safety. But just pointing out the possibility.

Well, to further that, I do believe that even with all that you said about Mays, John, change-of-direction and mis-direction could still be substantial problems for him. Things opponents could use against him. Enough to make him go from being the next Roy Williams to the next Roy Williams. He could still be great at nearly everything else and it could be a big problem.

And I don’t think it would be alleviated at linebacker, only modestly mitigated by the typical gain in yardage — shorter gains from the run and the pass rather than longer gains that could turn into home runs.

All in all, I still hope we get a tier-1 player from 6th.

by jacobstevens on Mar 26, 2010 5:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Jordan Babineaux,

There is always Jordan Babineaux as a cover Safety, he’s proven he does that well. Taylor can be a guy who will make people pay for catching the ball over the middle and he can also come in and plug up the running lanes and pursue the corners if they think about running the edge. He’s fast and he’s a mean hitter that will strike fear into receiver’s who know they will be crushed as soon as they make contact with the ball. This is something we need and we may be able to use that 1st pick on the defensive lineman or offensive left tackle that we need. It actually might be a better pick than Eric Berry at #6 when we have such a strong need for a big guy. I would be very happy with him at safety.

yea dude

by dirtyktm on Mar 26, 2010 11:33 PM PDT reply actions  

I might rather have Burnett, Allen, or Chad Jones at 60 or later and look elsewhere w/ our early picks.

I think a first-round Safety is too early, though I wouldn’t throw a fit if Berry or Earl Thomas were Seahawks selected there at one point or another.

by Misfit74 on Mar 27, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

John, can you compare Mays' coverage in 2008 to that of 2009? I am curious how much the knee injury

he sustained in the Ohio St game affected hi coverage ability. Maybe there is no relation between the two.

by Trojan Knight on Mar 27, 2010 8:35 PM PDT reply actions  

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