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Seahawks Can Win Free Agency by Predicting the Market

Seattle has no excuse for losing talent. It has already likely lost Nate Burleson and Cory Redding because of a perceived discrepancy between their worth and what they would actually be paid. Running a football franchise is competing in a game, and the rules change regularly. I have never been a strong advocate for Burleson, but losing him without compensation is like giving your opponent the Mediterranean-Baltic monopoly without compensation. Even the minimally valuable is more valuable than nothing.

Approaching an uncapped season, and its specific rules and limitations, Seattle should have prioritized not their own needs, but the markets needs. Allow me to explain.

Nate Burleson

Burleson turns 29 in August. He is within a wide receiver's peak seasons, and in fact had his best season in Seattle in 2009. He did that despite recovering from an ACL tear he suffered September of 2008. The market is especially thin for wide receivers, and wide receivers like corners are in constant demand because teams regularly use five. If the question was, which free agent was the best at his respective position, than franchising Olindo Mare made sense. He was among the best kickers in football last year. But the question is not which player was best at their position, but which player would be hardest to replace. And that is clearly Burleson. Seattle is thin at wide receiver. The market is thin at wide receiver. The wide receiver class is relatively thin, and first year wide receivers rarely ever produce at a high level.

Verdict: Seattle should have franchised Burleson. It would fill an immediate need without tying the team to a contract they could regret. He may not be worth the initial value, but, again, that's immaterial. Burleson is not worth $9.52 million in a vacuum, he's worth $9.52 million for Seattle in 2010.

Cory Redding

Redding is 29 and will turn 30 in November. He is within but exiting a defensive tackle's peak seasons. He's also had health problems as recent as 2008, but was mostly healthy for 2009. Seattle has a strong need at defensive tackle, but luckily the 2010 class looks loaded. The greater problem is that even if Seattle were to slap a transition tag on Redding, because he was converted to end last year, he would still cost over $10 million. A gut reaction might be that Redding is not worth $10 million, and it's likely he's not, but does it matter? Teams have a self-imposed cap, but even within those constraints, Seattle is likely to free itself of both Walter Jones and Patrick Kerney.

Verdict: Redding is a good candidate for a transition tag, because it would only lock Seattle into one season, it would give the team flexibility, it would likely discourage another team from pursuing him, and would fill an immediate need without damaging the team's cap in the future. If that is too rich for Seattle's blood, defensive tackle is a position Seattle could target in the draft and expect good results. The downside is that losing Redding hurts overall draft flexibility.

Olindo Mare

Seattle already slapped the franchise tag on Mare, making discussion of Mare and the above players somewhat pointless, but let's explore this again just for a second. Kickers are valuable, but what they are most valuable for, kick off distance, seems to be undervalued by the market. Knowing that, and knowing that the replacement value for a kicker is very high, possibly higher than league average given the emphasis on field goal percentage rather than kick off distance, it makes no sense to invest such a valuable resource into such a replaceable player.

Verdict: If Seattle was so enamored with Mare, and he's very good, offering him a long term extension would have been the right move. Ensuring that Seattle has a kicker for 2010 is spinning your wheels, and spending an irreplaceable resource to do it.

Onto the RFAs:

Star-divide

Ben Obomanu

After failing to develop into a capable receiver, Obomanu developed into a decent gunner. Seattle could assign him an original round tender, but since Obo was selected in the seventh round, that would do little to dissuade other teams from signing him. That might be the best possible solution. Seattle needs roster spots to add high upside talent, and Obomanu turns 27 this fall and has little upside to speak of. A team can find gunners.

Verdict: Assigning Obomanu an original round tender could earn a draft pick, and if no team bites, he could challenge a group of more talented rookies in training camp before being cut. If Seattle is not inclined to play games, Obomanu is an easily replaceable player and should in fact be replaced by a player with greater upside.

Brandon Frye

Frye has more value to Seattle than he does with another team, and, given his injury, he's not likely to be plucked from the roster if Seattle signs him to any kind of tender. He was selected in the fifth round. An original round tender should lock him up. Or, Seattle could attempt to sign him as a free agent, but would be playing with fire at a position it has little to no depth.

Verdict: An original round tender gives Seattle cheap depth without risking much.

The final three are players that would normally be unrestricted free agents. They are also the three most important players for Seattle to keep.

Darryl Tapp

Tapp has value not only to Seattle, but in a marketplace likely looking for the next Elvis Dumervil, value outside of Seattle. Tapp may not be on that level, but he's entering his prime, has a good record of health, and could upgrade a team looking for an immediate impact. A competent right defensive end with upside, Tapp is also irreplaceable for the Seahawks themselves.

Verdict: Placing a first and third tender might seem like an overvaluation of Tapp, but though it guarantees him $3.17 million, it would also lock him in for another season. Seattle should be at the point where they are talking to Tapp about a long term extension.

Chris Spencer

An original round tender would keep Spencer in blue, because he was selected in the first round of 2005, but the smarter play might be a second round tender. A second round tender would not only save Seattle roughly $800,000, it could turn a talented but redundant player into a draft pick. Another team, like Tennessee, might see Spencer as an immediate starter and a better talent than available in a marginal center class. It's unlikely that Tennessee would trade a second round pick for Spencer straight up, if not impossible, but it could be an entry for negotiations.

Verdict: Max Unger makes this an awkward decision. Seattle would be foolish to allow Spencer to leave for nothing, but he may not have a position with the team in 2010. Putting a second round tender on Spencer would either keep him here and give him another shot to prove himself, or land Seattle a pick.

Rob Sims

Sims is the second most valuable restricted free agent in the Seahawks RFA class and should be protected with a first round tender. It might seem like overpaying, a first round tender would cost $2.52 million, but it is not overpaying when we consider Sims value to the team, the difficulty with which Seattle would have replacing him, his age, 26, health, talent and developing ability.

Verdict: Sims is another player worth overpaying for, because he represents a clear need and is clearly better than Seattle is likely to get in free agency. Seattle should explore locking him into a long term contract.

That might seem like a lot of money paid out, and it is, but Seattle is not likely to be players in free agency, what free agents even present themselves, and regarding money, it's all short term commitments, much of which would be displaced by dropping Kerney and Jones.

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Comments

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What do you think it woud take for a team to bite on Spencer

would we have to throw in a pick to in order to get the 2nd round, or maybe a role player? I’m curious!

Lord, forgive me for my transgressions, as well as rosterbation.

by Blake Jensen on Mar 3, 2010 2:42 PM PST reply actions  

Do RFAs become UFAs come March 5 if they're not tendered?

And if so, do you find it alarming that many of these valuable RFAs (Tapp, Spencer, Sims) have not received tenders?

6/14/40. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 3, 2010 2:45 PM PST reply actions  

I've been thinking the same thing.

With our o-line already kind of thin, it would be pretty odd for the team…any team, to let them walk.

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett

by Wayward Llama on Mar 3, 2010 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not a worrier, really.

I’m more an anger guy. So, no, I don’t worry now, I just curse later.

by John Morgan on Mar 3, 2010 2:49 PM PST up reply actions  

But you will curse.

I’m now more alarmed than I was before.

If Sims and Tapp are lost in FA, I’m going to be very, very bummed.

6/14/40. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 3, 2010 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Is it maybe understandable given the uncertainty?

Capped year, uncapped year….

Of course, I also thought it was understandable for them to wait til they knew what was up with the CBA, in 2006. And Steve Hutchinson didn’t think it was so understandable.

If something happens to keep this from being an uncapped year, it was certain to happen in the 11th hour. It’s not a surprise that they might wait to tender until tomorrow night.

by jacobstevens on Mar 3, 2010 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Well said on all accounts.

I know the new front office is not bound by promises made by the previous regime, but considering all the money Redding gave up to restructure his contract to come to Seattle on a one year deal, I wonder if there was some kind of agreement to allow him to become a free agent this year. If there was, it might have played a part in not putting a tag on him.

I also wonder if Solari or Holmgren will have any interest in any of our offensive line. Do you know if any of these guys fills a need for their new teams? If so, then we really should do what we can to protect them, and probably make sure they don’t end up with the 49ers, even if we’re not intent on keeping all of them.

by Mind of no mind on Mar 3, 2010 2:45 PM PST reply actions  

Holmgren, I doubt it. Highly.

The Redskins could use about anything.

by John Morgan on Mar 3, 2010 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Very good stuff.

Especially about Burleson. The thought of his leaving was nothing but a shrug, but I hadn’t thought about the additional factors you did.

by jacobstevens on Mar 3, 2010 3:00 PM PST reply actions  

I think Spencer and Sims are the anchors of what can be a really good line

One of our biggest problems is all of the mobility on the line. We need guys who can come in and stay on the field as a consistent group.

Give me an offensive line or give me death!

by Generzal Zod on Mar 3, 2010 3:14 PM PST reply actions  

and I really like Tapp

He’s not great but he’s good enough, I think he is kind of a fan favorite.

Give me an offensive line or give me death!

by Generzal Zod on Mar 3, 2010 3:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd love to see Tapp

in a full time role and paired with a top flight offense(or one that isn’t absolute garbage). He’s always been either second fiddle to someone else on the d-line or the offense has been awful.

by Hancock.Brett on Mar 3, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm really hoping we replace Cole with a dominant DT

to pair with Mebane. I think when that happens, our DEs will have a much easier time being disruptive.

6/14/40. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 3, 2010 3:43 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree completly

I think that DT is the most key position for our defense next year. I kind of view it like this: If we can get a DT who will collapse the pocket and take on double teams, it will free up Mebane, which will cause the opposing team’s guards to lock onto our DTs, which essentially gives the DEs one-on-one time with the opposing OTs. The more we get to the quarterback, the more pressure, the easier it is for our secondary to stay with the receivers. That’s the theory at least.

Lord, forgive me for my transgressions, as well as rosterbation.

by Blake Jensen on Mar 3, 2010 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

It's what happens when they get the ball back that concerns me

I agree and wouldn’t mind spending 40 on this very deep DT class on some one who can do that.

Give me an offensive line or give me death!

by Generzal Zod on Mar 3, 2010 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

defense was out on the field way too long last year

Lord, forgive me for my transgressions, as well as rosterbation.

by Blake Jensen on Mar 3, 2010 4:29 PM PST up reply actions  

None from West-Coast teams, that I notice.

Denver being the closest exception. Wonder if we’re just hearing deals done during the Eastern business day..

by G'd Up on Mar 3, 2010 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

That could be it

These all posted between 3:00 and 4:00 our time, so hopefully our will be showing up soon.

Give me an offensive line or give me death!

by Generzal Zod on Mar 3, 2010 4:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I like John's points.

I am interested in seeing how we tender the players. This is my first year paying attention to the business side of the NFL, so it’s been quite an education.

by Chirp on Mar 3, 2010 7:27 PM PST reply actions  

March 5th deadline to tender?

We could still pull the Tag off Mare and extend him, no? Also, I can see that the Kicker market has more need than quality supply. With guys like Graham, Suisham, Folk struggling last season there are good teams in need of good kickers – Mare would upgrade the majority of teams at the position. A Kicker like Mare would be attractive on the market and signed almost immediately. Plus, there are a number of teams that have a kickoff specialist. Sign Mare (or keep him) and you free (or retain) a roster spot not used for said specialist. How many wins is a the Kicker Mare worth? How many is Burleson worth? How many is Redding worth? I can see why the team has done this, though an extension would be the ideal scenario.

by Misfit74 on Mar 3, 2010 9:14 PM PST reply actions  

Suisham never struggled. He was cut because he missed a field goal. One field goal.

Thus the irrational evaluation of kickers, and why good kickers are always available. Remember, Mare was only available because he missed a few field goals.

by John Morgan on Mar 3, 2010 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

To be fair he also missed two big field goals in that 7-6 stinker of a loss to Dallas.

Still, I completely agree about how kickers are evaluated. Suisham did miss some make-able kicks that were crucial in two losses, but he went 18-21 with the Skins this season.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Mar 4, 2010 4:03 AM PST up reply actions  

I think they become a scapegoat for a loss.

It is the easiest player to throw under the bus because there are so many of them who can come in midseason.

Give me an offensive line or give me death!

by Generzal Zod on Mar 4, 2010 6:44 AM PST up reply actions  

A source said that Shaun Suisham, who was released by the Washington Redskins earlier this month, would be one of the kickers to work out for the Cowboys. Suisham was 18-of-21 this season, but his three misses cost the Redskins two wins.

Then…in Dallas:

Nick Folk was released and replaced by Shaun Suisham, who also struggled and will probably be a free agent by the end of this week. That would leave David Buehler and Connor Hughes. Neither has made a field goal in the NFL.

That said, I’m not arguing that Kickers aren’t available. Many are. I’m just saying that a lot of teams could stand to upgrade their situation by adding Mare. Teams would be lined up to make him an offer. It’s an asset we would be guaranteed to lose. Redding? Maybe. Burleson? Likely, sure, but it’s also likely he’s not in our long-term plans. Kickers last forever! ;)

I think when you talk about a Kicker costing your team wins be it in the playoffs or regular season, it is valuable to have consistency (as the team stated). How bad was the kicking in the playoffs this past season? It may not be the best choice, but I can understand it.

by Misfit74 on Mar 4, 2010 8:19 AM PST up reply actions  

You're still not getting the major part of why this doesn't make any sense.

Probability. Since accuracy has been proven to have little year-to-year correlation, it’s pretty clear that good kicking seasons and bad kicking seasons are mostly due to random fluctuations. The items you’ve bolded in the above quotes are the words of people that don’t understand this concept at all.

by abender20 on Mar 4, 2010 8:47 AM PST up reply actions  

So why are teams spending exorbitant money on Kickers when they do?

Why are teams franchising and tendering them? Even if there is fluctuation, teams still value quality Kickers. Assuming Mare has a significantly worse season in 2010 doesn’t dismiss the fact that he’s still one of the more valuable Kickers. I mean, it’s not like Kickers have never strung together a series of good seasons. Can you say with confidence that Mare will cost us wins next year? Help me understand if I’m still slow, but I don’t see ‘probability’ being the reason this move is bad. I can see that using the Tag on someone like Burleson is securing a more valuable resource to the league as a whole. But, I think Mare would be snapped up more quickly than Burleson. Burleson’s contract demands will slow his signability and he may test the market then come back and ask Seattle to match or come close. Mare would just be signed and gone. I think the team is playing a game and is willing to accept the consequences it goes that way.

by Misfit74 on Mar 4, 2010 11:34 AM PST up reply actions  

As I often point out, what other teams do, and whether it points to truth or not

is an appeal to authority fallacy.

Teams sign kickers, cut kickers, because they overvalue field goal accuracy. Your concept that Mare is a good kicker and would be snapped up is based on the assumption that he can repeat his field goal accuracy. He can not.

by John Morgan on Mar 4, 2010 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Point taken on the 'appeal'. I'll try and work on that.

But when you say he cannot repeat his FG accuracy I submit to you his numbers over the past two seasons: 88.9%, 92.3%. Isn’t 89% acceptable for back to back seasons?

by Misfit74 on Mar 4, 2010 5:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Damn. Ravaged by small sample-size.

I give! Uncle! Stupid Kickers. Where’s Burleson? Oh yea, preparing to catch passes from a 2nd year rifle-armed QB opposite Calvin Johnson while counting his money.

by Misfit74 on Mar 5, 2010 7:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Suisham will always be a friend of the Seahawks

When he missed that FG against us in the playoffs that would’ve made it 17-13.

The Seattle Seahawks offense is driving......right into a brick wall at the end of the tunnel.

by SSreporters on Mar 4, 2010 8:34 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't think Mare would want to resign with the 'Hawks

he was a player that wanted to play in the playoffs. On top of that, the way Mora treated him after the Bears game. Probably not a high chance of re-signing him..

by Trepidation on Mar 3, 2010 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Some other 'tender' news:

Rams to lowball 2009 franchise player Atogwe? The Rams are reportedly “seriously considering” placing the lowest possible tender on restricted free agent FS O.J. Atogwe.
The tender is called “right of first refusal,” and would allow St. Louis to match any offer sheet Atogwe receives, but give the team no draft pick in return. The designation would also cost the Rams $5.75 million less than giving Atogwe a typically mandated 10-percent raise on his 2009 salary ($6.976 million). It could also create a lot of bad blood between the team and player.

Yes, please. Surely this guy would upgrade Grant. At least cause the Rams a huge $$$ headache by giving him an offer sheet.

by Misfit74 on Mar 3, 2010 9:43 PM PST reply actions  

Wow, that would be awesome.

Assuming we grabbed him of course — don’t really need Atogwe on a team that can actually do some damage.

by purplepansy on Mar 4, 2010 1:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Grant plays strong safety.

Atogwe is a free safety. And I’m not sure why you think Atogwe would be an upgrade over Grant even if they did play the same position.

by John Morgan on Mar 4, 2010 10:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Wow, still no news.

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett

by Wayward Llama on Mar 4, 2010 5:10 AM PST reply actions  

Clifton and Tauscher weren't tendered

I don’t know if the Pack runs a ZBS offense. I would take both of them, but Tauscher most likely won’t be tendered. He could be a nice addition for the right side of the line, especially if we go with a young QB.

Give me an offensive line or give me death!

by Generzal Zod on Mar 4, 2010 6:43 AM PST reply actions  

Tauscher's injury problems are of great concern to me.

The Seattle Seahawks offense is driving......right into a brick wall at the end of the tunnel.

by SSreporters on Mar 4, 2010 8:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Still nothing. Tick tock, guys.

Still crossing my fingers that they’re waiting until the 11th hour to make sure their decision doesn’t conflict with any late breaking CBA news.

6/14/40. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 4, 2010 7:33 AM PST reply actions  

That seems extremely unlikely

especially given that most of the rest of NFL does not seem to be practicing the same prudence.

by John Morgan on Mar 4, 2010 10:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Richard Marshall, please.

Beat writer Darin Gantt expects CB Richard Marshall to draw interest in free agency after landing just a second-round tender from the Panthers.

I’ve been eyeing this guy for awhile now. The door is open if we want a corner – a very good corner.

by Misfit74 on Mar 4, 2010 8:02 AM PST reply actions  

Is he really worth our #40 though?

I’d argue that the CB position is not as high a need as others right now. I’d put QB, OT, DT, S and RB and possibly even DE ahead of CB.

6/14/40. Sweet.

by Nick Andron on Mar 4, 2010 9:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Probably not. Marshall would be a UFA in 2011 and demand a huge contract.

A second round pick would be cheap and likely under team control for another five years.

by John Morgan on Mar 4, 2010 10:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Signing him to an offer-sheet would include a large contract, wouldn't it?

Make him a 4-5 year deal that the Panthers cannot match and we have an excellent starting Corner – past 2011.

by Misfit74 on Mar 4, 2010 11:46 AM PST up reply actions  

I guess if you have more confidence than I do that Marshall is elite, then it makes sense.

But he never struck me as particularly stand out and 2009 was his first season starting.

by John Morgan on Mar 4, 2010 1:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I do think he is a near-elite or soon to be elite corner.

Certainly I think he’s a rising player on his way to the upper echelon at the position and it’s rare for one to be attainable. Now is the time to strike while his price isn’t prohibitive.

by Misfit74 on Mar 4, 2010 6:35 PM PST up reply actions  

What is the deadline to offer tenders? 11:00pm today? 12:00?

Lord, forgive me for my transgressions, as well as rosterbation.

by Blake Jensen on Mar 4, 2010 9:51 AM PST reply actions  

Seahawks have made 4 tenders

There are a couple of fanshots up now…

by G'd Up on Mar 4, 2010 10:48 AM PST reply actions  

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