Seahawks Roster Analysis: Offensive Skill Position Players
by John Morgan on May 7, 2010 2:11 PM PDT
Email
PrintXFINITY from Comcast is a proud supporter of Field Gulls. You’ll get your Seahawks games as a part of over 120 NFL games XFINITY provides in HD, as well as On Demand game recaps from every NFL game every week, faster Internet speeds, and stunning HD. With XFINITY and NFL RedZone, you get every touchdown from every game every Sunday afternoon! Call 1-800-XFINITY or visit http://www.xfinity.com.
For the last few years, the Seahawks roster has been predictable enough to make most roster analyses borderline irrelevant. Seattle didn't invite a ton of players to camp and those they did usually broke into obvious strata: Starters and likely starters, recent draft picks, free agents signings and camp bodies. Most of the starters stayed starters. Most of the recent draft picks made the team. Most of the free agents were signed to be starters. Most of the camp bodies were discarded. The most controversial move I can remember was Seattle cutting Brian Russell and replacing him Jordan Babineaux. That says a lot.
This season is different. Personnel matters are in new hands. The team is no longer convinced it can stick to the plan and await a rebound. No one is penciling in Seattle as a playoff contender and so there's less of a "stay the course" attitude. Pete Carroll has emphasized competition and paired actions to words. There's upheaval, glorious, tumultuous, promising upheaval, and that not only bodes well for the Seahawks future, but for the first time in years, it means roster analysis is valid again.
Here's my first look. A couple quick notes: I don't use the traditional "lock" "bubble" whatever, but "possible starter" and "competing for a roster spot." I ordered player names by most likely to least likely. Finally, instead of broad definitions like "defensive line", I broke it into more specialized positions. Dexter Davis will not take a spot from Lawrence Jackson. Owen Schmitt will not take a spot from LenDale White.
Quarterback
Last season: 3
Currently: 4
Possible starters: Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst.
Competing for a roster spot: Mike Teel, Mike Reilly.
Apart from Hasselbeck, Whitehurst is the only quarterback Seattle would purposely start. Teel and Reilly are competing for emergency/developmental/clipboard quarterback. Reilly has practice-squad eligibility, but Teel was on Seattle's 53 man roster for the entirety of 2009. Seattle could stash Reilly, keeping all four, but I think emphasis on competition means the best quarterback will win the third-string spot regardless.
Running back
Last season: 3
Currently: 6
Possible starters: LenDale White, Leon Washington, Justin Forsett, Julius Jones.
Competing for a roster spot: Quinton Ganther, Louis Rankin.
Jones is likely the odd man out among starters. I suspect that Carroll saw much of what I saw last season, sound enough running by Jones and some very suspect run blocking by a transitioning and ever changing offensive line. Still, he didn't see holes, is not a special athlete, is nearing 29 and has expended numerous opportunities. Jones could be traded. Whatever the case, affordable contract + paradigm of competition + well-rounded if not exciting back = a chance to prove himself through camp and into the preseason. I think White is the most likely starter, Washington the most likely change of pace rusher, and that Forsett must again prove himself. It seems very unlikely that either Ganther or Rankin will make this team.
Fullback
Last season: 2
Currently: 2
Competing for a roster spot: Owen Schmitt, Ryan Powdrell
I think this is a total toss up with Schmitt having the talent advantage and Powdrell the advantage of knowing the system. I don't think Seattle will have a starting fullback and as such, I don't think Seattle will keep two fullbacks. Put up or shut up time for Schmitt. Powdrell should have practice squad eligibility.
Wide Receiver
Last season: 4
Currently: 9
Possible starters: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Golden Tate, Deion Branch, Mike Williams.
Competing for a roster spot: Deon Butler, Ruvell Martin, Reggie Williams, Jameson Konz, Mike Hass.
This looks a whole lot less cluttered when you filter out the players most likely to stick as gunners rather than receivers. Housh is pretty close to a lock, because he's expensive and reliable. Tate is a roster lock, but is competing for snaps. Branch and Mike Williams are competing both to start and to stick with the team. Martin, Butler and Reggie Williams could compete their way into starting, but first they must make the team. Hass is a long shot from a blunderbuss.
I figure the competition looks a little like this
WR1 (X): Housh v. M. Williams v. R. Williams v. Konz
WR2 (Z): Tate v. Branch v. Butler v. Hass
Slot: Tate v. Branch v. Butler v. Hass
Slot2: M. Williams v. Martin v. R. Williams v. Konz
Receiving Tight End
Last season: 2
Currently: 3
Possible starters: John Carlson, Anthony McCoy
Competing for a roster spot: Cameron Morrah
This seems elementary. Carlson will battle McCoy to start. Carlson is the better receiver but McCoy the better blocker, so don't count McCoy out. Morrah is battling for a roster spot. The best case scenario for Morrah is that he shows growth as a receiver and Seattle keeps him to back up Carlson and McCoy to back up Baker.
Blocking Tight End
Last season: 1
Currently: 3
Possible starter: Chris Baker, Anthony McCoy
Competing for a roster spot: Patrick Devenny, Jason Pociask
The good news is that Jeremy Bates' emphasis on two-tight end sets should shift a roster spot formerly dedicated to backup fullback to backup blocking tight end. The bad news is that Devenny and Pociask are still battling long odds. If I were to guess, I would say Seattle starts Carlson and Baker, Morrah backs up Carlson and McCoy backs up Baker. If Carlson is injured, McCoy might replace him regardless. If Baker is injured, McCoy could also replace him. Morrah is most threatened by McCoy seizing the second string receiving tight end position. If McCoy shows enough promise there, Seattle might opt for a pure blocking tight end like Devenny or Pociask to back up Baker. Devenny gets the edge because of youth, but it's close to a pick ‘em.
XFINITY from Comcast is a proud supporter of Field Gulls. You’ll get your Seahawks games as a part of over 120 NFL games XFINITY provides in HD, as well as On Demand game recaps from every NFL game every week, faster Internet speeds, and stunning HD. With XFINITY and NFL RedZone, you get every touchdown from every game every Sunday afternoon! Call 1-800-XFINITY or visit http://www.xfinity.com.
48 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
The fact that Deon Butler is competing to be on the roster
as a recent 3rd round pick is troubling. He’s not a great player but it seems like a waste to have that pick not translate into one of your 53 after a year.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
It's sunk cost. What Seattle paid for him is irrelevant.
He either helps the team win or should be let go.
Not often I see someone reference sunk cost, even with it being an extremely basic economic principle.
But absolutely correct, he’d not be as big of a casualty as Rob Sims to the shifting schemes.
It’s always a small possibility he could get something on the trade market last-minute, like the Boulware trade, but I’d probably expect him to be cut.
I fully expect Butler to make the team.
It’s unrealistic to see a rookie WR produce, let alone in the circumstances our team was under last season. They have to give him another season, hopefully with a stronger-armed QB. As mentioned before, Butler is pretty decent on slants. I believe he should be able to carve out a role. He could look awesome burning LBs and Safeties out of the slot and drawing coverage as a deep-threat. His 4.3 speed is a commodity, along with his college profile and not likely to be discarded this soon, in my view. I agree with the fact he’s not a return man hurts him, but I think given time, he could show himself as an asset. Also, Branch may not be long for the team. The younger Butler can play behind him until the inevitable blade-of-grass-injury and step further into the rotation at that time, if not next season. I think folks are giving up on Butler too soon.
Big Walt: thanks for the smile. Thanks for your Hall of Fame career.
It's just that there's so much comparable talent at the position
between Housh’s reliability and the Williams’ and Tate’s upside and Branch being good when he’s healthy. Plus we have to keep someone like Morey or Obomanu for special teams.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
Comparable talent, sure...
…but nobody can run with him. Josh Wilson maybe. A glut of special-teamers shouldn’t force us to discard a young, inexperienced burner like Butler. We haven’t even had a chance to see what we have in him.
Big Walt: thanks for the smile. Thanks for your Hall of Fame career.
If he gets beat out he gets beat out
If there’s a better receiver, why keep the worse one just because he’s an original team draft pick?
You don't see a Housh/Mike Williams/Tate combo
for 3 WR sets? Also, do you think Konz would be kept for TE backup, since I recall him playing that some in college?
Schneider said WR, and so I'll assume that means something
Konz is listed as a TE on the official roster. Like I said initially, he’s an athlete and they will want to keep him in some capacity.
Once Seattle has settled upon its wide receivers, any combination is possible. I only broke that out to approximate different roles for different skill sets. Housh plays plenty of slot. Tate could play the Z. I could see Housh-Williams-Tate combo.
I'd love to see how Konz works in some kind of H-back role
kind of like Chris Cooley. Not sure what his blocking is like though. Regardless, preseason should be interesting seeing how all this shakes out.
I sense a lot of short to midrange passes coming from our offense.
Lots of slot guys, RBs that can catch, Carlson, basically lots of potential receivers that can run after the catch. That should be ideal for our QB situation.
Now with more lemon bars!
I'm not so sure, I think the offense will be more about some deeper shots off PA.
Why the emphasis on big WRs for 8 yard slants?
I'm not sure you could say there is an "emphasis."
Unless you expect this offense to start Housh and a big man. Do you see the offense having a different WR mold than John was posting above?
Sure we chased Marshall, and signed the Williamses. But Housh is not really a PA jump ball guy. And I think they want a single big guy out of the Williamses. Tate was drafted, and we do have good short to midrange catchers at TE and HB.
Perhaps in the Whitehurst or other future QB’s offense, they’ll want more PA stuff going on, but this offense doesn’t look completely like it.
John, can you explain why you think Mike Williams has an edge?
I personally think he’s a bit of a longshot to make the team, and certainly has less of a chance than someone like Butler.
Familiarity, fit, talent
Williams and Butler are completely different types of receivers. I don’t think they are competing with each other other than than in a broad, Seattle only has 53 roster spots, sense. What makes you think Butler has a better chance to make the team? Schneider and Carroll have no obligation to honor Tim Ruskell’s sunk cost. Butler will make it if he proves he can contribute, just like Williams, and if comes down to one or the other, I think it will depend on what specific role Bates wants to fill. Seattle has quite a few potential slot receivers, but is pretty thin at flanker and split end. So, I apart from familiarity, fit and talent, I also think Williams fills a more likely need.
I would think the perception is that Butler has more potential.
Williams has had a few chances to stick and failed every time. Yes, they’ve been bad situations. But Butler has had only one year, and that was just as bad of a situation. As a third-rounder, he’s probably seen as a bit of a project who will improve over time, whereas Williams is probably seen as as good as he’s going to get.
Now, this isn’t what I’m saying, it’s just the way I’d figure NFL people would view the situation. How often have 3rd round picks been ditched after only one season?
I do agree that Williams fills a greater need… but wouldn’t Reggie Williams be a better, more flexible fit? It is true that Mike has familiarity in his favour.
I am less optimistic about Reggie than I am Mike
For whatever that’s worth.
I agree with your opinion about Butler and potential. He’s also cheap and under contract. However, I also think he’s playing for snaps. It’s possible Butler will stick and Branch, who is expensive and has suffered numerous serious injuries, will be squeezed out. However, right now, I think Branch is ahead of Butler for one spot and Williams is closer to the top of the depth chart at another spot.
That sounds about right.
Especially if – as you say – the team is looking to win now.
It may not happen frequently, but it does happen (ditched after one season)
TAMPA — The short-lived and ill-fated Dexter Jackson era officially ended Monday when the Bucs waived last year’s second-round pick.
Big Walt: thanks for the smile. Thanks for your Hall of Fame career.
Apparently Willians has been having a great camp
His weight’s back down, Josh Wilson been working out with him, Lendale White raved about him. He could surprise.
There seems to be a lot of WRs on the roster, especially if you include the gunners Obumanu and Morey
How many of them are we going to keep? Let’s assume the Seahawks keep on the eventual 53-man roster 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 1 FB, 4 TEs, 9 OLs, 5 DTs, 5 DEs 5 LBs, 8 DBs, 1 kicker, 1 punter and 1 long snapper (and we might keep one more offensive lineman and/or d-back). That’s 47 spots, leaving 6 for the receivers/gunners; let’s just assume the Seahawks end up keeping 6 from that group, regardless.
Who stays? Who get’s cut/traded/put on practice squad? If you feel that Housh, Tate, Branch and Mike Williams are the most likely to make the roster, who are the other two? John, do you think Obumanu and Morey are competing against each other, or are also included in the “WR pool” with the rest? If there is any trade market for Butler I think the Seahawks better pursue it sooner rather than later, because at this point one good/useful receiver (at least) is not going to make the cut, no matter what.
Forgetting the TE we signed that was Patriots #2 last year...
Also forgetting Sean Morey for WR’s and Ben Obamanu if he signs his RFA
Check this out on Forsett:
“Who ranks as the most elusive back in football over the 2009 season? The toughest back to bring down in 2009 by our study was Forsett, leading the way with an Elusive Rating of 70.19. Forsett’s rating puts him clear of Stewart, who came in second with an Elusive Rating of 67.66, and a full 13+ points clear of third place. Forsett was noticeably shifty and tough as a runner and receiver, and it will be interesting to see where he fits in 2010, with Seattle having added LenDale White and Leon Washington in the offseason.”
http://profootballfocus.com/articles.php?tab=articles&arc=&id=162
I sure hope PC and company are aware, as this is simply amazing. The entire article is worth reading.
I got this from:
Canfan says:
May 7, 2010 at 7:37 am
Just saw this link on PFT: Justin Forsett rated as most elusive RB
http://profootballfocus.com/articles.php?tab=articles&arc=&id=162
Hope he’ll get more carries this year.
I don't know how much of a factor it is..
…but I have to think that teams weren’t all that interested in stopping Forsett, as he often ran in garbage time. I can see Stewart being there because he breaks a ton of tackles and is so powerful and balanced. Force has his skill-set, but he’s still not the kind of back you can hang your hat on.
Big Walt: thanks for the smile. Thanks for your Hall of Fame career.
With Schmitt
What have you seen that you don’t like/dislike about him. For me he hasn’t had enough pt to prove either way. But I have liked what i’ve seen. But I will admit I root for him. I like his back story and attitude. He’s more Nick Reed than Nick Reed.
Solid post
But like Hawksince77 said, I think Forsett looked to good to be the 3rd running back in that system. But maybe we’ll be running more multiple RB sets, so who knows.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Somehow, some way, the running game still troubles me.
Forsett looks to be a more of a change-of-pace, third down back and I don’t think he will start. LenDale White may be in shape but he’s got to prove he can run again. Leon Washington is may be still injured. Julius Jones is Julius Jones.
A Forsett-White combo may be nice, be this seems to be more of a optimistic guess rather than a certain one.
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
I don't expect Jones to be on the roster in September.
Leon, LenDale, and Forsett are locks so no matter how cheap JJ is he’s not worth occupying a roster spot.
"It's fourth and fifteen and you're looking at a full-court press." - Lt. Frank Drebin, Police Squad
Whites downturn in numbers is because of Chris Johnson
He lost yards to a better runner, not because there was anything wrong with him
Agreed. Hopefully we can trade him for something of value
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
Curious
I was under the impression that Teel still had two full years of PS eligibility due to his being inactive all season. Is being named Emergency QB on the inactive list considered active?
It is what it is...
This is good stuff.
A few things that jumped out at me were 1) Mike Williams in the short line to see significant action, let alone make the team. I’m probably more excited about him than I should be, but encouraged reading this.
Also I was thrilled with having the specific X, Y, etc. receiver breakdown. All this makes me ever more curious about Bates’ offense. Though I like Butler, and after re-watching the TB game, he looks like he could be a player in time.
Back to Williams, I can’t help but get riled up about a super-sized WR stomping defensive backs en route to paydirt.
The McCoy element is another that is exciting. Someone who can actually in-line block that also may have a set of hands? Let’s just say I don’t miss John Owen.
Big Walt: thanks for the smile. Thanks for your Hall of Fame career.
Aside from the Carroll connection
I’m not sure about LenDale being the frontrunner at RB. The guy has never averaged more than 4 ypc in the league. The only reason I see him making the roster is change-of-pace potential with Forsett and Washington around. I guess there’s always that “best shape of his career blah blah blah” stuff I keep hearing as well, though I read a pretty amusing takedown of that type of thing on Fangraphs not too long ago.
by Suburban Shocker on May 7, 2010 8:39 PM PDT reply actions
i.e. Buh-bye Jones.
As much as I loved you, greener pastures there son.
was
Justin Griffith so bad as a blocking fullback?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZDUh9yboqI
Your culture is primitive; yet so funky!
Dig it baby
Oh man, I never said or thought that he was Seattle’s problem. It’s just that some people thought he was worthless. And while I don’t exactly know how lead blocking works in a zone scheme, but from what I saw of him, I thought he was a decent blocking fullback who knew the schemes and plays (on a sh** offense mind you).
I guess with the firing of Knapp; the primary purpose for Griffith being on the team was done and and he was probably gonna be cut. Or the new crew didn’t see enough of what they wanted and he was gonna be cut. Or both…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZDUh9yboqI
Your culture is primitive; yet so funky!
or they had to make a roster spot for
Kyle Williams was it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZDUh9yboqI
Your culture is primitive; yet so funky!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Conan sends maniacal, Madonna-loving reporter to Super Bowl XLVI
- Rodney Harrison calls Rob Gronkowski out for dancing after the Super Bowl
- J.T. Thomas is pretty much the best person ever
- Jets congratulate Giants with full-page ad
- Justin Tuck gave out 80 bottles of Johnnie Walker Blue to celebrate Super Bowl
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
