Fantasy Football and Seahawk draft value

by shams on Jul 10, 2010 6:23 PM PDT

Thought I might take the forum's temperature on ranking the Seahawks for fantasy football value this year.

The way I figure it there are three or four Seahawks potentially worth drafting: Housh, Tate, and Forsett in all leagues, and possibly Leon Washington. Certainly Leon Washington, if your league gives you his return yards.

Of these players, I think Tate represents the potential best value. Let's look at their ADPs, given a 12-team, 15 round traditional format. These numbers are from fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Player, Average Draft Position, Ranking by position:

T.J. Houshmandzadeh: ADP 8.05, 35th WR

Justin Forsett: ADP 6.04, 26th RB

Golden Tate: ADP 11.06, 49th WR

Leon Washington: ADP 12.09, 50th RB

Julius Jones: ADP 15.01, 63rd RB

Housh is a big wild card but I can't see drafting him in the early 8th, unless it becomes clear that he's really gonna touch the ball a lot in this offense. The sports hernia worries me too.

J-Force, sadly, is not gonna fall to you in the ninth round this year. The secret is out. His ADP of 6.04 I am sure would be a round or two higher if it were clear to all that he were the featured back. I'm still worried Pete doesn't know what he has in Forsett. Does Bates?

Golden Tate in the mid-11th round is, I think, a very high-upside pick and I wouldn't hesitate to grab him there. There's a chance he's the 2008 Eddie Royal. He and Forsett are instant offense in Bates' 2TE sets; of the two, he could slip under the radar. If his August seems promising, I might target him in the 9th round or even a shade higher.

Thoughts? Really trying to avoid homer picks this year. I'm looking in your direction, Hasselbeck.

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What!?

I can’t rec my own post? This is bull. It’s 2010, people, self-promote or get pulled under.

inside of a dog it's too dark to read.

by shams on Jul 10, 2010 6:26 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

How'd you forget John Carlson?

In my opinion he’ll be the Seahawk with the best fantasy value this season.

by Trepidation on Jul 10, 2010 7:55 PM PDT reply actions

Right, I forgot Carlson

I knew there was somebody I was forgetting.

He’s currently going late Round 12 and is probably good value a round or so before that. Sorry, the TE position is so stacked this year…he’s not Tier 1 and I don’t put him quite Tier 2a (Finley, Shiancoe) but he’s still good value. Where do you like him?

inside of a dog it's too dark to read.

by shams on Jul 10, 2010 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Just as high as Finley and Shiancoe

The Vikings and Packers have plenty of receiving options on their teams, so I see Carlson not only having a “breakout year” in 2010, but also facing less competition for receptions as those two guys.If there is a run on tight ends in your draft I could see Carlson going before Round 12, especially if your league is mostly filled with Seahawk fans.

by J.L. White on Jul 11, 2010 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions

I would throw Mike Williams on that list.

by John Morgan on Jul 10, 2010 9:30 PM PDT reply actions

He's definitely worth a target or twenty in the red zone.

I bet you can get him for squat.

by djafrot on Jul 10, 2010 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions

You shouldn't.

Sorry, I should have put a finer point on this— the list is for draft purposes only. Mike Williams is definitely worth watching and grabbing off the waiver wire, but he won’t be drafted even in 15 round leagues. Save your pick and grab him when he heats up.

inside of a dog it's too dark to read.

by shams on Jul 10, 2010 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't draft kickers and cycle defenses.

So Williams is exactly the kind of player I would draft in the 15th round while others are grabbing Mare or whoever.

by John Morgan on Jul 11, 2010 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions

What do you mean by cycle defenses?

Yeah, the more I thought about, the difference between not drafting someone and drafting him in the 15th round is pretty much nil. After all, that 15th rounder is who you’re gonna dump to make room for waiver players anyway.

inside of a dog it's too dark to read.

by shams on Jul 11, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Defense, from a fantasy perspective, is mostly about what offense that defense is playing.

So I would just play whoever is facing the Rams or Bucs or Seahawks or whoever.

by John Morgan on Jul 11, 2010 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions

You don't even draft a defense?

inside of a dog it's too dark to read.

by shams on Jul 11, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Not unless it's a great value.

by John Morgan on Jul 11, 2010 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed

Generally you can rotate in defenses on their opposition. Plan ahead with a good schedule, pick up the team with the most sumptuous W15-16 schedule well ahead of time, and you’re usually better off than trying to draft a powerhouse defense.

by Thomas Beekers on Jul 12, 2010 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions

I draft my D in the last round,

and my kicker in the second to last. The guys in my leagues generally carry 2 defenses (weird), so if I don’t draft one I’m stuck trying to rotate through the bottom 8 or 10 D’s in the league.

by cro-mag! on Jul 12, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Huh, interesting.

Good defenses and kickers have saved my ass over the years. Particularly defenses. I usually keep a couple and flip between them.

by djafrot on Jul 11, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions

That said, I usually play in autodraft leagues...

…and they usually screw up my later picks so much that the day after I have like 20 roster moves.

by djafrot on Jul 11, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions

What about Matt Hasselbeck?

I’m not saying he’s a starter, but most fantasy teams draft a backup QB, so in a 12-team league 24 QBs could be drafted. I’m not sure what order they should be ranked on your draft board (and don’t feel like going to a fantasy site to get their rankings), but here are my tiers:

Tier 1: Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.
Tier 2: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Shaub, Philip Rivers….and maybe Brett Favre if he comes back.
Tier 3: Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Chad Henne and Joe Flacco.
Tier 4: Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger (missing 4-6 games, and may take at least a game or two to get back on track), Jay Cutler, and Kevin Kolb.
Tier 5: Matt Hasselbeck, Jason Campbell, David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinert, Alex Smith and Matt Stafford.

by J.L. White on Jul 11, 2010 1:43 PM PDT reply actions

He should definitely be a backup

Me I’d draft him and make him the starter when he’s playing the Rams.

Dissenting opinions are welcome, and should be encouraged, at Lookout Landing. -LL Style Guide

by MT Olson on Jul 11, 2010 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Hasselbeck was bad in both games against the Rams last year.

by John Morgan on Jul 11, 2010 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Meh.

Those interceptions I blame on start-of-the-year rust and Mora.

Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...

by Cheddar28 on Jul 11, 2010 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions

He did throw 3 touchdowns in the first game.

But I was more talking about only starting him when the matchup seems lopsided.

Dissenting opinions are welcome, and should be encouraged, at Lookout Landing. -LL Style Guide

by MT Olson on Jul 11, 2010 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I wouldn't draft any Seahawk that isn't a running back.

And those would be late round, bench filler.

by Nate Dogg on Jul 12, 2010 10:58 AM PDT reply actions

naw

Carlson would be a great TE2, and I like both Forsett and Leon as decent RB3s for your bye weeks. Not sure what to think about Housh and Tate/Butler, but if I’ve got my top 3 WRs and Housh is still available it seems like a no-brainer.

by cro-mag! on Jul 12, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions

Unless you're starting two tight ends I don't think it's a smart investment to take a second TE as high as Carlson will probably go.

The QB situation is way too shaky to mess around with any of the Seahawks outside of the running backs. Washington is likely to lose snaps at the goal line and I like Forsett but we don’t know how he’ll hold up over an entire season’s workload.

by Nate Dogg on Jul 12, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions