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The Slow Exit of Lawrence Jackson

Detroit wins. If that is what you are asking, the answer is: Detroit wins this trade.

Seattle is cleaning house. It is attempting to reshape an inherited roster around a new philosophy and a new scheme, and it is accepting losses in the process. It could not hope to trade a former 28th overall pick for a comparable pick in the 2011 draft, and it hasn't. We do not know what the Lions have traded in exchange for Jackson, but it is not a late first round pick.

Unlike San Francisco trading Kentwan Balmer, Seattle is not cleaning up an unfixable mess. Jackson was not holding out. He was not bench bound. Seattle could have started Darryl Tapp at right defensive end and Jackson at left defensive end. That wouldn't be a great line. It would probably be pretty lousy. But it would be cheap and young and capable of growth. It could be supplemented over time. It could surprise.

Jackson was not a bust, either. His production over his first two seasons was comparable to many ends that eventually broke out. A quick survey shows that Jackson ranks fifth in career sacks among defensive ends from the 2008 class. He is behind Trevor Scott, Cliff Avril, Chris Long and Calais Campbell.

Some will be satisfied to say Jackson sucks and be over with it. Some will be satisfied to say Seattle has traded away talent and be over with it. There isn't a simple answer that encompasses the trade. There is a series of events that started with Jackson's rookie season and came to a head this spring.

Jackson had his problems. He quit on plays as a rookie. He started 2009 strong and then disappeared. Like Balmer, Jackson is too young to write off but significantly less valuable now than when he was drafted. Jackson is young and cheap and there was no urgency to move him. He could have been a significantly better player this year than last. Next year than this. Worth franchising by the end of his rookie contract. Who knows exactly how young players break out, but they do. This time last year, who the heck was Sidney Rice?

Detroit wins this trade because the Lions have bought low on a still very good, very young and very volatile talent. Detroit wins because Jackson still has much better potential than a mid- to late-round draft pick. Detroit wins because Seattle had schemed Jackson out of its defense and had to either sell low or burn a roster spot on a misfit.

That Detroit wins does not mean Seattle loses. It lost, insomuch that it did lose, through the process of taking a good talent and depriving him of a position and a future. It mitigated that loss, perhaps fully, by salvaging another good talent by giving him a position and a future: Red Bryant. And though Jackson was selected in the first and Bryant in the fourth, there is not a ton that separates their intrinsic "talent." One might argue that if Bryant was not transferred to end then he probably doesn't make the roster. And so Seattle could not have retained both Jackson and Bryant.

And that closes the loop: Seattle drafted Jackson but Jackson never busted nor excelled; Seattle drafted Bryant but Bryant proved incapable of playing tackle; Seattle found a home for Bryant by scheming Jackson out of a position; and, that done, Jackson no longer had a place on the roster. Jackson had become a loose end. Now he is gone.

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The scheming for talent question did come up last thread

It’s an interesting angle to say PC did scheme for his available talent, only not for the available talent you’d expect him to, namely the 1st-rounder.

Not calling this a loss for Seattle is…difficult to wrap one’s head around, though.

by Thomas Beekers on Aug 18, 2010 3:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Easy, to me.

What’s the alternative? You keep him on the roster. Unquantifiable, but take a stab, what’s that worth? Rotational defensive lineman. Scheme misfit. Tapp was not a misfit, but Jackson is. They liquified a depreciating asset they were not going to use.

My gut feeling, Balmer is going to bust for us. Jackson would have been serviceable as he had shown. I’d rather have Jackson than Balmer. But despite my gut, Balmer’s a better fit. More talented, and still has more potential. I can endorse the method, just not convinced in this case with the target being Balmer.

But I can endorse the method. Talent matters way more than scheme, but you have to assemble the talent, you have to decide how you’re going to play the game, and your approach constitutes talent types.

You can get a brand new set of Z-rated tires, it’ll set you back over a thousand dollars. But the value your Zs have on your Jeep Cherokee is not the same as their monetary value. They’re incredible if you have a Mazda RX-8. But you don’t.

LoJack and Balmer. This is unremarkable talent in the NFL. I would criticize rigidly matching talent to scheme, where it jettisons remarkable talent. That’s not the case here. Balmer in hand, I don’t see the LoJack trade as a loss at all.

Deliberately switching LoJack for Balmer, I am not a fan of but I can get behind. Not a fan, because it’s Balmer. But for the prospect Balmer is, it’s a somewhat risky gamble. It can pay off bigger, and a better schematic match, than Jackson is ever likely to pay off. It’s a little risky, it’s not super likely, but the downside is very minor. A potential drop in our 6th round positioning, for the chance at a bigger jackpot that doesn’t have scheme fighting against it.

I would have expected the majority here to be in favor of this move.

by jacobstevens on Aug 18, 2010 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

They arn't a switch.

They are two seperate moves. And they play two different positions.

Now with more lemon bars!

by Fear on Aug 18, 2010 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Two moves, together. It is a switch.

I evaluated it individually and combined. Their roles on tis defense are not/were not yet defined. Though I wonder if there was any substance behind the “Jackson at Leo” thing we heard yesterday as having been stated on Monday. They aren’t the same kind of player, but their roles on this line weren’t yet defined. 5-tech, maybe 3-tech. I understand they might also look at Balmer at nose.

by jacobstevens on Aug 18, 2010 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

What a dark and poetic ending (to the article)

Jackson is ying to Balmer’s yang. The universe has now righted itself.

"Pass rushers enter the world of Okung but never leave." - JM

by Nick Andron on Aug 18, 2010 3:54 PM PDT reply actions  

Hmm,

Does that make Balmer’s new nickname Ying Yang?

by Mind of no mind on Aug 18, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did he have to go?

Probably. Should he have went for a 6th rounder? I don’t think so.

Now with more lemon bars!

by Fear on Aug 18, 2010 3:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Yeah it is hard to stomach a 6th for him

Those that were saying 3rd round were smoking some good stuff though.

by Surf Hawk on Aug 18, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

3rd would have made me fine with it.

But I didn’t have any hopes because I just didn’t think anyone would give us a third. A 6th is selling incredibly low though.

Now with more lemon bars!

by Fear on Aug 18, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'll bet Q/PM

have been shopping Jackson since Red started looking good at DE. Maybe even before that.

Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...

by Cheddar28 on Aug 18, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

We essentially

traded LoJack for Balmer, right?

by m_b on Aug 18, 2010 4:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Great post.

Found a typo, by the way: ‘less valuable now then* when he was drafted’.

by ty540 on Aug 18, 2010 4:28 PM PDT reply actions  

The coach that knows him the best didn’t want him. That’s good enough for me.

I have some hope that Singletary beat Balmer down, just like he did Coffee, and that he can succeed here. On the other hand, Jackson never gave any indication that he was going to get any better. He guit on plays, he quit on games, he quit on whole seasons.

He’ll be in the UFL in a year or two.

Go 'Hawks.

by JimAK on Aug 18, 2010 5:52 PM PDT reply actions  

I've always wanted to say this

Please use the subject line

And I completely agree with you.

by stufr on Aug 19, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ruskell fail.

How about Desean Jackson, Ben Grubbs and Marcus McNeil instead of Lawrence Jackson, Deion Branch and Kelly Jennings.

by puerto on Aug 18, 2010 6:25 PM PDT reply actions  

Agreed

It’s like using differential scores to forecast a winner:

’Well, Green Bay beat Chicago by 30 and Chicago beat Tampa by 27 so Green Bay will beat Tampa by 57."

Go 'Hawks.

by JimAK on Aug 18, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

He was a bust

We drafted him in the first round, and he’s been at best a mediocre player for us. You compare him to Scott, Avril, Long and Cambell, but only Long was taken in the first round. Scott is a 6th rounder.

If you define a bust as a player who didn’t ever justify his high draft order for the team he was drafted (my definition), then he’s a bust. That doesn’t mean he won’t be a good player for Detroit, but he never was worth a first round pick for us.

He’s the classic Ruskell first rounder, he could easily have been had in the 4th round. Puerto gives us a good list above of other Ruskell first rounders. Jackson, Branch and Jennings. Throw Spencer in that list as well. I don’t think any of those guys are worth the pick they were drafted with.

Maybe Curry will buck the trend, but the jury is still out. Ruskell did wonders in the later rounds, but his first round picks were awful.

by lordtd on Aug 19, 2010 12:37 AM PDT reply actions  

I think the point is that

Historically there is evidense of DEs developing later than other possitions. It would be a conflated argument to say that therefore he will develop. It just means that if he is working hard and in a good system there is reasons to hold out hope. That was a big IF I just dropped.

by stufr on Aug 19, 2010 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Doesn't matter, he won't do it for Seattle

And therefore he is a bust by definition. We wasted a 1st round pick on this guy, and could have traded down and gotten better players in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th round.

He was not worth a first round pick.

Even if he develops into a pro-bowl player for Detroit, he’ll still be a bust. He was a non-impact player who was drafted in the first round and traded for a 6th rounder 3 years later.

We got almost nothing for our first round pick in 2008. It is a complete and utter failure by Ruskell. It is the textbook definition of a bust. I can’t imagine what else you’d call it.

I’m beginning to wonder if perhaps our 1st rounder in 2009 is going to suffer the same fate. For the 4th overall pick in the draft, I’m wanting a lot more than what we’ve gotten so far for this guy.

by lordtd on Aug 23, 2010 2:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

I would call it a net gain. Jackson was by no means a bust. JaMarcus Russell was a bust.

Trading one player who didn’t fit the scheme, but had ok upside, for a player that has more upside that is a much better fit for the scheme – Jackson was productive at End and Tackle in college. He has neither bulked up nor sped up significantly since, so he hasn’t played either position with alacrity in the pros.

He looked best when holding the point of attack at end, but Red can do a better job of that as he has 50 more pounds of mass with about the same amount of quickness. I think he will end up as a decently stout run stopping End in a conventional 4-3, but we aren’t doing that here.

We needed big ugly depth. There was nobody to back up Red or Me! Bane! until Balmer arrived. I expect Balmer to be decently productive with some good ol’ Uncle Pete Affirmation of Goodness vs the culture of negative reinforcement he left. Even if he’s only good enough to merely alter a play, that will be sufficient for the Currys and Pistols and Thomases on the team to do their thing.

And we got Sucky Detroit’s 6th round pick, so it will definitely be higher than the one we traded to SF.

by bleedshawkblue on Aug 19, 2010 9:57 AM PDT reply actions  

Call it a wash: Detroit bailed us out of a Ruskell mistake

LJ had what Ruskell looked for: three-year starter at a major college program who played the college game at a high level, which usually — not in this case — is a good predictor of success in the play-for-pay game.

To me LJ was one of those players who looked like a man playing with boys in the college game, despite the fact that the higher up you go in athletics, the smaller the gap in talent between individuals gets. When you have this much of an edge over the competition, there’s two ways you can go:

1) Russell Okung, who wouldn’t care if he’d pancaked his guy 40 times in a row, if he didn’t do it the 41st time he’d be pissed off. It doesn’t matter how good his opposition is, he wants to kill his opponent on every single play; or,

2) LJ — who grows accustomed to expending the minimum amount of effort he needs to expend to excell and stand out at the level he’s playing. The problem is, you can’t do this in the NFL or it shows, and the habits were too deeply ingrained for LJ to change them, so he was soft in general with only occasional flashes of brilliance.

So either LJ has already established who he is and what he’s going to do in the NFL, or the trade to Detroit for a sixth will be the slap upside the head he needs to get off his ass and live up to his potential, but in any case it wasn’t going to happen in Seattle. He was a tweener for the scheme we play now, and an underperforming one at that.

So do we hold a roster spot for an underperforming tweener or do we get what we can out of him and move forward?

A sixth for the guy drafted right behind LF who fits our scheme and a higher sixth back for a guy who wasn’t going to fit in. No-brainer to me. GO HAWKS!!

by BigUglyFatDude on Aug 19, 2010 11:25 AM PDT reply actions  

Did you watch Okung's bowl game this past year?

There were at least two plays where he let his guy by and didn’t make a single effort to do anything about it. I wouldn’t presume to know his approach or his attitude about how successful he wants to be if I were you.

Golden!

by Carl Shinyama on Aug 19, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

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