DKSB's Indisputably Accurate 2010-2011 NFL Predictions
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 5:07 AM PDT
in Seahawks Commentary
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PrintAll preseason predictions are, to a greater or lesser degree, bullshit. The beauty of this game is its unpredictability. Anyone who tells you they KNOW who will make the playoffs, who will win the Super Bowl, etc, is trying to sell you something. Folks with deeper, more detailed knowledge of the game might be able to give you slightly more accurate predictions, but at the end of the day it's still at best educated guessing.
I've always had particularly deep contempt for implausible preseason predictions. I don't mean things like "the Rams will make the playoffs," either. I'm talking about when some lazy sportswriter predicts the records for all 32 teams and comes up with an impossible aggregate record, or predicts playoff matchups without working through tiebreakers, etc. That's why every year I go through the ENTIRE regular season (using a grid like this) and predict the winner of EVERY game, so all the pieces fit together. After the jump, my own particular flavor of bullshit, which you can dissect in the comments at your leisure. (and don't be shy about moseying over to my home blog, Dave Krieg's Strike Beard)
NFC West
- Seattle (9-7) #4
- San Fransisco (9-7)
- Arizona (6-10)
- St. Louis (4-12)
- Green Bay (12-4) #1
- Minnesota (11-5) #5
- Chicago (7-9)
- Detroit (4-12)
- Atlanta (12-4) #2
- New Orleans (10-6) #6
- Tampa Bay (5-11)
- Carolina (4-12)
- New York (9-7) #3
- Dallas (8-8)
- Philadelphia (7-9)
- DC (6-10)
- San Diego (12-4) #1
- Oakland (7-9)
- Kansas City (7-9)
- Denver (4-12)
- Baltimore (10-6) #4
- Cincinnati (8-8)
- Pittsburgh (8-8)
- Cleveland (7-9)
- Indianapolis (11-5) #3
- Houston (10-6) #5
- Tennessee (9-7)
- Jacksonville (5-11)
- New England (11-5) #2
- Miami (9-7) #6
- New York (9-7)
- Buffalo (3-13)
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"The nine"
SF, @DEN, @STL, AZ, @OAK, KC, @SF, @TB, STL
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 6:06 AM PDT up reply actions
That would make my season if we beat SF twice
but you have us losing to Carolina at home, while predicting they only win 4 games? Not impossible since we lost to Tampa last year, but that would suck.
Whenever I do this
I try to make sure I throw in some unexpected results… since that is what happens in real life… Seahawks will win a game or two they weren’t expected to, and vice versa.
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions
True, but on the flip side:
If that’s the case (we’ll get some unexpected wins and unexpected losses), why not just pick the opposite, if in the end it comes down to the same result?
I mean, saying we’ll lose to SF and win with CAR is probably a safer bet than the reverse, and if the result is 1-1 anyway, I’d pick the safer guess =P
"Pass rushers enter the world of Okung but never leave." - JM
you just explained exactly why I didn't do that
It’s “safer,” thus more predictable. If you just pick the favorite in each game, what’s the point?
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Depends on your desired outcome:
1. Game-by-game outcome (thus your method makes more sense)
2. Overall season outcome (my method makes more sense)
And your post made it appear that the desired outcome was to correctly guess each team’s record to determine playoff berth, etc.
Just an observation – not meaning to be critical :)
"Pass rushers enter the world of Okung but never leave." - JM
goal
was to determine overall season outcome VIA game-by-game results. Also, isn’t it plausible we’d drop one to Carolina, looking past them to a big game at SF the next week? Hawks are a young team.. those things are going to happen.
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions
They sure will!
Also, love your blog =P
"Pass rushers enter the world of Okung but never leave." - JM
If Carolina is as bad as you think.
Then I think their chances of beating Seattle are very low rather than just low. Our run D is likely to be better (which counters their strength offensively) and we have the personnel to do really well against inexperienced QBs. Just sayin’, the characteristics of each team really give Seattle the edge on that one.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
Who are the 23 jokers?
Who’ve voted for Seattle so far?
Well
this IS the ancient and mystic society of No Homers :)
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't understand why the defending champs are not getting any love from anybody.
OOOOOH!!!!! That was NASTY!!!!!!!!
I've got them getting back to NFC title game
that’s some love, no?
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Eagles
Living near philly and watching their preseason games I don’t see how they win 4 games let alone 9. Their Offensive line makes the line in Seattle look good. They struggled Mightily against the KC pass rush, which I am pretty sure is not supposed to be that good.
7 wins for Eagles
seems about right to me
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Consistent D.
Year in and year out they’ve got a good defense. I dunno about nine since their division is tough, but I think they’ll be solid. They’ve only had one losing season and one .500 season in the last decade.
Thank you, Walter Jones.
Thank you, Ken Griffey Jr.
Heh
I can kind of understand 9-7 for us, and it’s not even impossible if the other QBs choose to implode. But beating the Vikes in the wild card? C’mon now…well unless your predicting Favre will by then have turned out to actually be a 41-year old QB with myriad injuries. But still unbenchable.
Pack’d be my pick for the Superbowl if I had to make one. There’s a lot of love given to the Falcons but I don’t see it. Especially not from Turner the Burner.
Falcons
Turner is down in weight…he was playing at 250 last year and looked slow. I saw a couple of his carries during one of the preseason games and he looked like he did 2 years ago.
The Falcons defense is a giant question mark. I am not sure they would have a chance to stop the Packers.
The Packers are going to be very good. Would love to see a Pack-Saints game, it might end up 63-56.
I definitely see the Falcons taking their division and knocking on the SB door
Green Bay just looks like they’ll be a juggernaut though. Like 14-2.
by jacobstevens on Aug 31, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed.
If we end up beating the Vikings in round one of this year’s playoffs, my monkey is an uncle. Or something.
Forgive me for linking to this site,
but here’s some reasoning why Favre is no sure bet in the playoffs.
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3115_Another_chapter_in_the_BrettFavre_legacy.html
by jacobstevens on Aug 31, 2010 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Word.
A few Farve INTs and a couple Peterson fumbles, combined with the power of the Twelve Army? Fuck yes we could win a home playoff game over those Purple taintlickers.
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Bullshit predictions always beget bullshit criticism.
Your NFC West & Weast are kinda messed up, man. I think the East is better than that. Especially the Cowboys.
This is pretty best case scenario for our division. I could easily see any of it, but not all of it.
Alex Smith could weight down SF too much, the pass defense should be somewhat lethargic and the RBs are sure to get banged up and lose effectiveness. But then he could Rex Grossman them to 11 wins, too.
Leindersen is a near certainty to make the Cards a lesser team, and possibly hamstrings them from the beginning. But I really respect their coach, I believe in their running game, and they figure to remain a very tough out for most teams.
But even still, very well done. I really like it, and I definitely see your standout teams, and why they will stand out, and agree with you. And the expected contenders who will underwhelm, I can get behind that, too.
I'm not sure their running game wasn't just
to set up the run with the pass. We’re talking Kurt Warner here.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
No argument but I believe it's not a ruse, that it's a more integral part of their offense moving forward.
And I think Beanie will succeed.
by jacobstevens on Aug 31, 2010 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Sqwawks 56, stealers 3 in Super Bowl. This season.
With obligatory postgame media jizzfest that shittsburg is the greatest thing to ever happen to the entire world, and they were vastly superior to whatever those latte swillin’ recycle-fags from South Alaska call themselves that just beat them by 53 in the Super Bowl.
by bleedshawkblue on Aug 31, 2010 10:08 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I like the thought behind this comment but the execution just isn't quite there.
by Robert on Aug 31, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, Rapistburger went & took the wind out of the sails of the National I Heart Stillers boat
It just wouldn’t have the same effect now.
by jacobstevens on Aug 31, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Still.
I wouldn’t mind beating them by 53. Plus if they make it to the Super Bowl, that wagon won’t even have time to get painted.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
Crave more detail in my predictions for the Seahawks' season?
It’s up on my home blog right now :)
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 10:33 AM PDT reply actions
The Falcons are good
They have a good QB, a good o-line, a good defense; Turner and Roddy White are really good, but perhaps not quite elite (although that could change this season, I guess).
The Falcons are good….but I don’t see them going 12-4 and winning the Super Bowl. Is there really that much to this team to get excited over? I don’t see it.
I'll admit
part of it is I don’t want to be one of the million people picking a Packers-Jets Super Bowl. Atlanta certainly seems like a plausible choice to make the leap, though… Hell, New Orleans was 8-8 in 2008.. no one was picking them to win it all last year but they did.. I’m trying to be a bit ahead of the curve.
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I did. I picked New Orleans over Colts, preseason.
But I’m no more accurate than anyone else, and nobody cares. Atlanta has a legitimate shot. They’re a talented young team who is growing together, have gone through growing pains and probably were better last year than they looked.
by jacobstevens on Aug 31, 2010 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Atlanta is a great choice for "underrated" Super Bowl contender
for all the reasons you listed. I think the Saints had more going for them than the current version of the Falcons, though; Drew Brees is a much more dynamic QB than Matt Ryan, for example. Also, the Saints did make it to the NFC Championship in 2006, so their success last year wasn’t completely unexpected.
Maybe my response was rooted in the fact that the Falcons lack that certain “it factor” that will allow them stand out against the toughest competition of the NFC. They could make the leap this year, however.
Read your recent post on DKSB
Just enjoyed basking in the mental pictures you painted. If there are any 2 games I want the Hawks to win this year, they are the San Fran matchups. Grrrr…
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
Also: OT but
did anyone else notice the Texans have a kicker battle going on?? The random likenesses are getting uncanny.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
Thanks man!
I have to be honest, no finish by the Seahawks between 7-9 and 10-6 would surprise me. Things break right for us, and 10 wins could easily happen.
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Are you a fan of Chris Clemons this far?
I have yet to form any solid opinion on him myself.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
I bring it up because
he seems to be one of the more pivotal players on this roster right now. And he’s something of a question mark.
Though they sink through the Sea, they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion...
I mean that in my most friendly pro-DKSB way
I just like to expect some Seahawk suckatude so I’m disappointed every Sunday.
For the record
The Wilson trade DOES NOT make me want to alter any of my predictions… yet. My take over on my home blog here…
"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent." -Don Draper
by Johnny Peel (DKSB) on Aug 31, 2010 9:19 PM PDT reply actions
Basically this is the best content on Field Gulls, by far.
But why not just save this stuff for your own site? No need to give Field Gulls all the traffic, right?
It feels dirty and risky just commenting here, like I might all of the sudden turn into a whiner who can’t comprehend logic!
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