Seahawks Notes: 9/2/10
by John Morgan on Sep 2, 2010 2:28 PM PDT
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- As an ardent believer that the preseason is important as long as you know what to look for, I offer this: Tonight's game is just short of meaningless. It is. Preseason importance peaks in week three. In week four, teams just want to stay healthy. Teams will sign players specifically so that they may take on the preseason wear they wish to protect their roster-bound players from. Tonight, tonight is about football as fun. I am not going to break down the tape. I am going to continue breaking down week three, because week three is at least relatively important.
- The preseason is important like this: Do you feel more confident in Mike Williams than you did in June? Do you feel more confident in Kevin Vickerson or Chris Clemons than you did in June? Does Marcus Trufant look healthy?
- The preseason is not important like this: Is anyone more or less worried about Lofa Tatupu than they were in June? Does anyone have a better idea of how Seattle's offense or defense will play as a whole than they did in June?
- I remember reading once that preseason performance, as compared to regular season performance, is neither more nor less predicative. One preseason game is a poor indicator of how a player will perform in the regular season and one regular season game is a poor indicator of how a player will perform in the rest of the regular season. Of course, that is judging from statistics, and football statistics are pretty worthless. The essence is true: We can approximate raw ability, but we do not know when or how it will show itself. We do not know which matchups are favorable for an end, or when pressure will become sacks, or when a safety will pick a pass or just miss. Samples are too small, definitions are too loose and job duties too fluid.
- So preseason is about health, growth, awareness, cohesion and execution and not about sacks, interceptions, touchdowns or wins and losses.
- In the former sense, I think Seattle has had a fine preseason.
- In the latter sense, I think Chris Clemons will sack quarterbacks, Earl Thomas will pick passes, Mike Williams will catch touchdowns and Leon Washington will average more than four yards per carry. Just like I surmised in June.
- Tonight's storylines revolve around the final 53 man roster. It's about players like Matt McCoy, Kam Chancellor, Jamar Adams, Will Herring, Tyjuan Hagler, J.P. Losman, Quinn Pitcock, Craig Terrill, Rob Rose, Jordan Babineaux, Jeff Byers, Kennard Cox, Dexter Davis, Ruvell Martin, etc etc etc.
- Spots will be won, but Seahawks fans will probably never notice if Cox or Rose make the practice squad. It's important, in so much that every decision a football team makes can contribute to wins or losses, but here's a fact that helps put things into perspective: Pro Football Reference determined the difference between a starting quarterback and a backup quarterback is 2.3 points a game or about one win.
- One win. In a 16 game season, that's a lot. That is the equivalent of a ten win player in baseball, think young Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols at his very best, exchanged for a replacement level player. But it's also one win.
- Now ask yourself, what's the difference between Will Herring and Matt McCoy?
- Josh Wilson and Walter Thurmond?
- Everything matters, especially if you care enough to want it to matter, but nothing is likely to happen tonight that will dramatically change the season. Nothing has happened through the preseason that is likely to dramatically change the season. We're invested and so we care. There is no way to predict how a season will go, and so we scratch about looking for evidence everywhere. We love football and so we love preseason football.
- When the season starts, the preseason will disappear like a dream.
- So drink up and be happy to watch the Seahawks battle it out without the inherent drama of wins and losses being at stake, but keep things in perspective. This is a dress rehearsal, and tonight's play will be conducted by the stand-ins.
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To what extent do starters play in this game?
Will we see any starters? Or entirely 2nd and 3rd team?
Just seemed like when Whitehurst played with first team guys (Williams, Okung) he performed quite well. Since the first game, he’s not played with much (if any) first team talent and has struggled to be consistent.
"Pass rushers enter the world of Okung but never leave." - JM
Last year's gamebook provides some insight
Not that Mora and Carroll run things the same, but the fourth game goof-off is kind a league-wide standard.
http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/54784/SEA_Gamebook.pdf
How do you get those pdfs?
They are pretty cool and I’d love to start acquiring them.
You go to the Game Center page on nfl.com for the specific game.
Then you go to the Analyze tab (second from left). Theres a big red link directly above the scoring summary.
Wow. That's pretty cool.
Kinda sobering to see Mike Teel’s stats from that game, though. Kinda puts Whitehurst’s game vs. the Titans into perspective.
"Pass rushers enter the world of Okung but never leave." - JM
Nicely said, Im more focused on SF.
But football is football, so i’ll watch. I like the last preseason game the most out of all the other preseason games. Guys go all out today. Most have nothing to lose.
That stat about starting quarterbacks being worth 2.3 points per game or 1 win more than a backup seems pretty meaningless...
… considering it’s obviously a statistical average and yet the team-to-team variation of quarterback quality, both at starter and at backup, is enormous.
I mean, yeah, if you have a poor to average QB and an average backup, that sounds about right. But it seems clear that the elite QBs in the league mean a lot more to their team than just one extra win a season over their backups. Just look at the Cardinals with Leinart instead of Warner.
Some teams can also weather the loss of their starting QB much more easily than others just by the style of offense they run, or if they have a dominant defense that doesn’t require the offense to score many points to win.
Not that this post really turned much on that statistic, just saying.
that stat does suck
With Brady leading the Patriots in 2007 they scored 589, and in 2009 they scored 427. That’s an average of 31.8 pts/game. In 2008, backup QB Cassell led the team to 25.6 pts/game. A 6-pt differential. For most teams, there is a huge difference between a confident starter and the backup. That would be true with Hasselback vs Whitehurst, I think. Averages tend to hide these things.
"Football players are temperamental. That's 90 percent temper and 10 percent mental." - Doug Plank
That you can abuse a stat or find an exception does not mean the stat sucks
It means you are misusing it.
One win vs backup
Don’t feel right. Is there data presented?
by paul2 on Sep 2, 2010 6:24 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I think what that signifies
is just how much this is a team game, and how much even the QB’s performance depends on other players. Would Tom Brady be a star today if he’d been drafted in the first round by the Raiders?
by The Ancient Mariner on Sep 3, 2010 4:38 AM PDT up reply actions
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