Seahawks Week Three Win Probability

by John Morgan on Sep 28, 2010 10:34 AM PDT

The Seahawks win probability peaked at 92% before Earl Thomas's fourth quarter interception pushed it to 99%. That peak occurred after Leon Washington's 101 yard touchdown return and at the start of the Chargers first series. San Diego rallied to 45% in the fourth quarter when they tied with a touchdown and a two-point conversion, but Washington returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown. I can't remember a game in recent memory that involved so much hanging on and so little offense.

Courtesy Advanced NFL Stats

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This thing should be more L-shaped next week.

by michaelfox99 on Sep 28, 2010 11:54 AM PDT reply actions

John - a quick question...

After getting to see the game via a generous Chargers fan’s upload to tenyardtorrents… I can say that the difference between the halves in terms of offensive performance (and defensive pressure) was alarming… However, a comment one of the announcers made stuck out to me. It was stated that the Chargers were able to sell play action very effectively even when they hadn’t really been able to run the ball. My question: Are the Seahawks so geared to stop the run that they are over-focused on it?

by dassler10 on Sep 28, 2010 12:05 PM PDT reply actions

In the second half

we also lost Curry, Trufant and Mebane due to injury. Curry and Mebane were providing a lot of pressure on Rivers and Curry has a lot of responsibility in covering Gates. Carroll said that, when Trufant was replaced with Thurmond, they had to simplify the coverage a lot.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Sep 28, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions

At first glance...

It seemed to me that once Curry left and was replaced by Herring the 4-man pressure seemed to evaporate. I haven’t rewatched the game yet so I can’t make any conclusive statements but I can remember watching Herring get swallowed up trying to rush on multiple plays in the second half.

Remember, the play action isn’t always about getting the linebackers to start coming downhill, although if it does so much the better. The play action, even without an effective running game, delays the confirmation of pass vs run by about 1/2 second which can still have an effect.

by timlin45 on Sep 28, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions

San Diego using PA

seems like it’d have the added benefit of freezing Thomas also. And if you’re rushing Curry (with Mebane, Cole & Bryant) in 4 man pressure does that mean that Clemons drops into coverage? Cause that’s a scary idea. In fact I think he was in coverage on one of SD’s redzone successes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCK7njbgDO8

Prepare for scare

"It's always a bad play when the other team scores." - John Madden

by jubelthebear on Sep 28, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

And he almost had an interception!

by dassler10 on Sep 28, 2010 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Good point...

I was just curious if it was a trend that we would see other opponents take in the future given the ability we have shown so far to stuff the run.

I must admit that it surprises me how such a minute amount of time can so affect the outcome of a play… but I totally agree that it makes a difference. This timing thing also helps explain why our defense seems to be more effective at home than on the road…

by dassler10 on Sep 28, 2010 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Multiple kickoff returns for TDs do tend to preclude offense

I was actually really nervous after the second one, because the Seahawks D line was getting NO push at all, and they had to run right back out there and bang heads with the Chargers again. Whereas the Chargers D was plenty rested when the time came for the Hawks to take possession and try to run out the clock.

by Kingdomer on Sep 28, 2010 12:34 PM PDT reply actions