Orton, Here's a Who!
No one wants to play with me.
Pete Carrol has stated that resigning Matt Hasselbeck is the Seahawks' number one priority. I don't know whether to believe that as anything more than PR spin; time will tell.
The Seattle Seahawks need a quarterback. Now and for the future. Some people believe that Matt Hasselbeck can succeed in the short term if you prop him up with enough talent. This is debatable, but what is not debatable is that without that superior talent around him at this point it seems unlikely that Hasselbeck will have any sustained success. Three years of futility stand as testament.
One argument for keeping Hasselbeck has been that he is the best available option. Some feel that moving on is the important thing; Matt Hasselbeck is the known and his ceiling indicates habitation suitable only for little people. Better to take what's behind door number two, these folks say. In either case, Hasselbeck is 35 years old, and whatever career he has left is on borrowed time. This too, is not debatable.
I think it's also important to talk about what Seattle has here specifically from the standpoint of offensive talent. Some feel that the Seahawks need to protect Hasselbeck and play better defense. That it has been more the team letting Hass down rather than the other way around. Now statistics are great and everything but this is one area where they really break down. John Morgan did a great piece where he talked about loaders, packers, and shippers or some such, talking about one of the reasons to replace Hasselbeck was that replacing all the other positions had failed to acheive any kind of change in results; replacing him might reveal where the breakdown is occurring. I agree with this hypothesis.
What we do know is that Seahawk QBs were relatively well-protected. 35 sacks isn't awesome, but it isn't bad either. By comparison, Tom Brady was sacked 25 times and Denver QBs (since I'll be talking about Kyle Orton down below) were sacked 40 times. I also think the 'Hawks gave up eight in the Raider game, so that further skews the data, since consistency is more important than bulge.
Beyond that, there is little statistics can tell us that can't be packed into whatever shape you'd like to fit your argument. Is Obomanu a developing wide receiver on the cusp of a break out year? With some continuity on the offensive line and their coach will the run game be more like week 17 and 18 or more like most of the year? Should Mike Williams, listed at 6-5, 229 lbs, have two touchdown catches on a team with 14 field goal attempts inside the 30-yard line? Could it be possible - could it be possible - that Seattle has many of the parts they need to be successful and only lack a competent signal caller?
But, if not Matt Hasselbeck, then who?
Personal Clipboard Jesus
There is, of course, Charlie Whitehurst, who did not perform appreciably better (in fact, statistically, he was worse) with the same talent than Hasselbeck did, but this in and of itself means only that Whitehurst is not a phenom; if he was, he would not have been available from San Diego for a 3rd-round pick, they'd have been asking Kolb prices. Since there is so little statistical evidence one cannot condemn nor acquit Whitehurst.
But there is one fact that bothers me.
Both he and Hasselbeck came into this season having new coaches and a new playbook. Hass would have the advantage of experience and teammate familiarity; Charlie the advantage in most of the physical areas. I can't help but think that if Whitehurst was something special (like NFL starter special), he would've supplanted Matt in the preseason. This is either a failure on his part or a failure on the part of the Seahawks' coaching staff if he is NFL-starter caliber.
Rumored destination: Seahawks' pine.
Only the Good Die, Vince Young
Could be the best of choices and might be the worst of choices. 30-17 as the Titans starter and other their 13-3 first round punting at the hands of the Ravens in 2008, they haven't done crapplo without him in 5 years. I was living in Lake Jackson, Texas when Jeff Fisher took over the Houston Oilers (this is pre-internet, y'all) so I got to see all his interviews and hear all the local gas about him. Consensus? He's like wiping your ass with a prickly pear.
Does that excuse cussing him out in front of the team, throwing your shoulder pads, and a slew of other emotional off-field issues? Not exactly. But Young didn't kill anybody, didn't hurt anybody, has become twice the quarterback everyone thought Leinart would be, and is probably the right situation away from from being a top-teir QB. His issue is that he seems like a very emotional guy, and who better to help him reclaim his career than Mr. Rah-rah himself?
Vince Young's accuracy largely a thing of the past, the only knock other than the above is his ability to stay on the field. It's been three years since he played a full season, but in the last two (half) seasons that he has played he's posted elite numbers. If all his issues do simmer down, and something tells me they will, Young will turn someone into a winner overnight.
Rumored destination: Minnesota Vikings =(
8 Kyle
Kyle Orton was drafted in the 4th-round (106th overall) of the 2005 draft and only started as a rookie because he was the only guy the Bears had that could stand without a gibbet. With the battle cry of, "Just stay in, Baby," Orton stumbled his way through his rookie campaign by doing just enough not to screw up the Bears awesome special teams/defense combo on his way to a 10-5 record as a starter while throwing for just 1,800 yards. But, I believe he learned. (He must have, because the Bears spent the next two years trying to forget they had him.)
Orton, you may recall, did not play in the Bears 2006 Super Bowl season as Sexy Rexy did his year-long impersonation of Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde - "We are 10-2 with Rex as our quarterback" (I can't believe there's not a youtube of this!) - and fortunately for justice bad Rex showed up for the Super Bowl. After Bad Rex became more and more frequent in 2007, Orton once again surfaced to take the starting position.
In 2008 he was the full-time starter, going 9-6 with the following line: 272-465-2972-18-12, 58.9 comp%, ANY/A 5.3 throwing to Matt Forte (leader in catches), Rashied Davis, Devin Hester, a 32-year-old Marty Booker, Desmond Clark, Brandon Lloyd, and Greg Olson (who gets a gold star for being a bad ass TE). Basically, this is mediocrity incarnate, perhaps a shade below, but for some reason Orton was seen as the problem and was traded as the throw-in with a first round pick for Jay Cutler.
So what's Orton been up to in Denver? Improving. In each of the last two years, Orton's numbers have only gotten better in nearly every measurable way. ANY/A, rating, TD%, int%, Y/A, yards, all better, and while one could argue that he's had improved offensive talent with the Broncos - this was true from 2008 to 2009, but not so from 2009 to 2010 which saw him lose his (and when he was there, Cutler's) #1 target, Brandon Marshall, and the running game went from adequate to just as stinky as the Seahawks'.
In 2010 Kyle Orton posted the following line: 293-498-3653-20-9, with a 58.8 comp% and ANY/A of 6.4 throwing to Brandon Lloyd (who had an unprecendented monster season), Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Demaryius Thomas, Knowshon Moreno, and Correll Buckhalter. Does anyone think those receivers made Orton? Is there any reason the 'Hawks receivers couldn't match those receivers' production?
It should be noted that since the Cutler/1st-round pick trade (in which Orton was a throw-in), Jay hasn't played appreciably better in his two years than Orton's last year in Chicago, while Orton has matched Cutler's years in Denver that made him such a hot commodity. At the time I thought Chicago was doing the right thing. I was wrong. They got screwed.
Kyle Orton is 6-4, 226 lbs. He just turned 28 in November. He is the now and the future. You can win with Kyle Orton. You can win a Super Bowl with Kyle Orton. If Denver doesn't want him, it will be their losses.
Rumored destination: Arizona Cardinals =(
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Comments
I don't get the Orton love.
If he ages like most quarterbacks, he’s a guy headed to his peak next year and will start to drop off after. He’s about as ‘middle of the pack’ as you can get in this league in his prime.
What's wrong with middle of the pack?
At this point, I would love middle fo the pack for a few years.
If top-10 is middle of the pack
I want to be middle of the pack like that.
10th in ANY/A in 2010. Better than Matt Ryan. Better than Drew Brees. And a full yard better than Jay Cutler.
14th in ANY/A in 2009. Better than Flacco, ‘Pro Bowler’ Garrard, Matt Ryan, and again a full yard better than Cutler.
And an argument could be made he did with far worse talent.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
Also, as for his age and peak
There’s no telling what may happen with Orton; he basically went on hiatus for two full seasons from 2006-2007. He’s certainly a young 28.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 21, 2011 4:07 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I'd take middle of the pack
Over bottom of the league any day.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Jan 22, 2011 11:51 PM PST up reply actions
ORTON IS NOT SCORCHIN'
He’s good when he’s protected and has weapons to throw too but he’s Kyle Orton so i won’t give him too much praise outside of that Kyle Orton=Kyle Orton.
By what stat are you judging QBs?
Culter’s 2007 and 2008 ANY/A were 6.3 and 6.8 respectively.
Orton’s 2009 and 2010 ANY/A were 6.2 and 6.4.
But you’re right, Orton could never match Cutler’s 4.8 ANY/A from 2009 outside his own rookie year and never got sacked so skillfully as Cutler has this season.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 21, 2011 3:56 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Cutler's sacks were due largely to offensive scheme and OL personnel
How has Pete Carroll failed you today?
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 21, 2011 5:18 PM PST up reply actions
Cutler's two non-rookie years he threw up a 19%/20% DVOA. (as a Sophomore/3rd year player)
Orton’s barely cracked 13% as an established veteran that’s either nearing or at the peak of his career.
by SgtSasquatch on Jan 21, 2011 6:54 PM PST up reply actions
Ugh, I hope Orton isn't the future
I think he’s had his Derek Anderson year and is about to crash back to earth.
In back to back years, with an upwards trajectory...
Anderson posted a 6.3 ANY/A in 2007 which is good, but also had a 3.6 int% – worse than Orton’s rookie campaign and a full percent worse than all of Orton’s follow up work – and completed only 56.5% of his passes; i.e. the writing was on the wall.
Anderson never has managed another season like his 2007, much less even a 5.0 ANY/A – something Orton has now done in three successive seasons (5.3, 6.2, 6.4).
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 21, 2011 4:03 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Examples of DVOA.
Andersons ‘07 only posted an ~11% DVOA (Slightly less than Orton’s peak) and he didn’t fool anyone the rest of his career.
Matt Cassel fooled his way into the PRO BOWL this year, and posted a 15% DVOA and we all saw how he got manhandled by a real defense.
Nice piece
But I’m not sure why you cite their W-L records as starters. That is not a reflection on their quality as QBs in any significant sense.
True
But for Vince Young… there’s something to it. Could be some intangible attitude thing (team around him), could be luck, but the Titans have been a much better team with him than without him since he’s been there.
The Bears I see as more a poor man’s Pittsburgh.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 22, 2011 5:00 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Maaaybbbeee
But since intangibles are well, intangible, I always tend towards “leave ’em be” when it comes to analysis.
But that’s not the popular attitude in NFL writing, that’s true.
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 22, 2011 9:24 AM PST up reply actions
Living in Denver and dating a Broncos fan...
I had the distinct misfortune of watching every Broncos game this season and while Kyle Orton wouldn’t be my first choice, I wouldn’t mind having him on the Seahawks at all… as long as he didn’t cost too much.
Denver, by and large, is a city that is convinced that a QB needs to be able to run around and make plays out of nothing to be successful. I was baffled on a weekly basis for the disdain heaped on Orton for merely having good games while playing for a team that allowed pressure through the middle of the line like few I’ve ever seen, an anemic running game and constantly having to play catch-up. I though he did well given the circumstances. Meanwhile, Tim Tebow grossly overthrows or underthrows receivers, misses wide open targets, shows no pocket awareness or ability to go through progressions, and always seems to be flirting with disaster and is revered because he’s fiery and makes a couple highlight plays a week. I don’t get it.
Back to Orton. I don’t really see the Derek Anderson or Matt Cassell comparisons. Besides being a different mold of QB from Anderson, Orton has basically been a full time starter for three consecutive season- and shown pretty good improvement each year, flirting with statistical greatness through the first eleven games this season. As for Cassel, he’s benefited from a very good running game and the few times that the Chiefs were forced into relying on the passing game to play catch-up, he was pretty miserable. Orton was constantly in that position with the Broncos this year. Also Orton’s arm, while not among the elite, is pretty good and quite a bit better than Cassel.
I don’t really know what the Seahawks offense is going to look like next season, but if they’re moving away from the Bates offense where they want to run a lot of roll-outs, necessitating a mobile QB, and back to some semblance of a WCO where that isn’t as important, but accuracy is- Orton could be a good fit.
by creid on Jan 22, 2011 8:43 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I spent 4 years in Denver...
dated several Bronco fans.
Glad to be back in the PNW. That being said, their weird QB dynamic (as you well know) stems from one thing— the fact that they had Elway, and that’s what he did. They will forever be wanting the next Elway, not acknowledging that he was a once-a-century type player and if you take him away from their history, the differences between the Seahawks and Donkeys are non-existent.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Jan 22, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
I do understand where it comes from...
But I’ve never ceased to be amazed by the rampant mindlessness among Broncos fan. Their philosophy for building a team is:
1) Get a transcendant talent at QB
2) Fill the rest of the roster players who will be inspired by greatness
3) Become a perennial contender
Actually building a team around offensive and defensive schemes and filling it with players whose talents actually fit a scheme and compliment the other talents on the team is a foreign concept.
Jake Plummer
Yeah, I actually thought the best COACHING Shanny did during his time in Denver was the success he had taking the Snake off the scrap heap for three successful seasons, and completely revamping their DL, leading to their 13-3 near-miss in 2005.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 22, 2011 5:03 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Orton seems to be going for a 2nd or 3rd
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Jan 22, 2011 11:52 PM PST up reply actions
It all depends on the plan
If we are going to draft a QB for development, then I don’t think that any of the possible FA or trades are worth their money. If not then I don’t want any of them for the next 6 years
Personally, if I ran an NFL team, I’d probably invest a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd-round pick on a QB every single season regardless of the team’s situation, constantly cultivating them like potatoes. If you ever find yourself ‘cursed’ with too many competent quarterbacks, trade one away – they are the most valued commodity in the sport.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 22, 2011 12:41 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Draft would be great
But the thread was about getting Orton. He is fine, I just don’t want another 5 year solution, without a plan past that or to take the risk at getting someone truly great.
The thread is about Seattle's next QB
Orton is my choice, that does not mean that I don’t think the ‘Hawks shouldn’t draft a QB – with this season’s 1st-round pick even. I just don’t think you’re going to find the guy that can start right away at 25, and I don’t like the team’s current options.
So I submit Orton as the best option.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 23, 2011 7:47 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
My point was that this was about Orton as an option specifically
If we were a team with a great D and a good running game who was about to be good, but just didn’t have the QB yet, then Orton would probably be the guy I would go after. He would make the Jets a Superbowl winner this year, but he would do nothing for us.
I don’t think anyone that is available to draft at QB would come in and start next year with any ability period. I want all rookie QBs to sit at least part of the first season. LB size guys like Locker or Newton are a little different, but for overall I want them to sit. That said I want a first round QB to earn the starting spot by year two. If we sign Orton to a three year contract then we have that money tied up for a couple of years. More importantly we would have CW, Orton and a rookie on decent sized contracts next year.
BL – Draft the future, start CW, lets get on with it.
That was necessary because I've made such a habit of it.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 23, 2011 7:40 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
It's fine
A lot of SB Nation sites don’t like members using the subject line. But I suppose it is Field Gulls, so it’s their standards, don’t feel to bad.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Jan 23, 2011 11:31 PM PST up reply actions
I was actually being fecetious
I have over 500 posts on Field Gulls, 10 on this thread alone and to my recollection that’s the first time I’ve ever forgotten to post a title.
A bit CoC police for my tastes.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 24, 2011 12:05 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I had noticed that
I was mostly joking as well, curse the internet for not letting emotion show.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Jan 24, 2011 12:17 AM PST up reply actions
"CoC police?
?? What does that mean??
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Jan 24, 2011 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
I think next time a "sorry" would be preferable to passive agressive sarcasm
by DrunkAmerican on Jan 24, 2011 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not going to apologize for making a 'mistake' 1-of-500 times
I’m offended that anyone would ask me too.
And I say ‘mistake’ because it’s not like I burned down a church or, heaven help us, used chat-speak. I follow the rules and forgot to enter a title line whilst doing so 12/13 times on this thread alone. Someone feeling the need to point out that one time is being a little too… the least inflamatory thing I can say is “police state”.
And that’s as nice as I’m going to be about that.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 24, 2011 5:33 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
If someone reminding you to use the subject line offends you I suggest growing thicker skin
by DrunkAmerican on Jan 24, 2011 5:41 PM PST up reply actions
Or learn to care less about the little things
Learn and move on. It ain’t worth the time you put into the retort
Clarification
To be clear, I do not look at Kyle Orton and say, “OH, THERE HE IS, THERE HE IS! THE NEXT TOM BRADY, AND NOBODY SEES IT BUT ME!” What I do see is an upgrade from our current talent pool and a fairly significant one who has shown consistency and would likely solidify the position for the next 3-4 years.
I don’t want to go into next season with MH, CW, plus some rookie. That, to me, is the very definition of insanity.
I believe this Seahawks’ roster as it is right now plus Orton wins the division next year – and not at 7-9.
I’d probably be even more excited if the ‘Hawks acquired Vince Young. I think he’s the far better talent, but the Seahawks have always been too vanilla to take a chance on someone like Vince; more likely Kristen Bell becomes my next girlfriend.
No other QB available interests me. I would like a known commodity that isn’t past his prime for a reasonable price. Sounds like a dream? Vince and Orton are the two who are most likely to fit the bill. Orton because he’s undervalued, and Vince because the Titans stupidly showed their hole-card.
For Vince I’d give up the 1st and not blink, Orton the 2nd. Might give up a little more for either.
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 22, 2011 1:03 PM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Williams and Lynch
So maybe I should dream…
Most of my cliches aren't original.
- Chuck Knox
by Azimeir on Jan 22, 2011 1:13 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I agree with on Orton, but not Young...
I wouldn’t want him if he becomes a FA and certainly not for a draft pick, let alone a first. Headcase, injury prone, not a team guy and not a particularly good fit if the Seahawks are indeed going back to more of a West Coast style Offense.
I’m not opposed to the Seahawks drafting the QB of the future this year, but I don’t see anyone in the draft that’s going to be ready to be a legit starting QB for at least a year or two.
Can I rec a single sentence fragment?
[Matt’s] ceiling indicates habitation suitable only for little people.
EXCELLENT!

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