FanPost

Holmgren, Ferguson, Ruskell, Schneider

(DK Edit: Thought this was a very interesting look at the Seahawks' last four GMs and their draft grades based on Draft Value per player, as formulated by Pro Football Reference's Chase Stuart. Definitely a good conversation starter.)

With the trade of Aaron Curry, I thought now would be a good time to evaluate our last four GMs. Truly, it's hard to see how effective John Schneider has been, but im going to try. I believe there are four major areas in which a GM needs to be successful.

They need to draft well, acquire free agents, re-sign core players to appropriate contracts, and make trades.

This first installment is about drafting. First, we need to establish what league expectations are for each round of picks, then we will establish how those picks worked out, and then grade them accordingly.

Because younger players have not had a chance to really contribute, you will see younger players having large negative numbers, this is to be expected, but some players have already made their marks in failure, while others are just starting to contribute. For the last two draft classes we will multiply the out put by 10 (just to get an idea of what their scores would be in 10 years) for last year's rookies, and by 5 for rookies from two years ago.

This is obviously not scientific, but a general idea.

I will be using Chase Stuart's Draft point evaluation chart, which you can find here, and also use their Approximate Adjusted AV for the Seahawks players to really evaluate the players and picks.

1999 Mike Holmgren

1 R 22 P 22 OV Lamar King DE Saginaw Valley State EAV 34 TAV 16, DIFF -18

3 R 16 P 77 OV Brock Huard QB Washington EAV 19, TAV 2, DIFF -17

3 R 21 P 82 OV Karsten Bailey WR Auburn EAV 18 TAV 1, DIFF -17

4 R 20 P 115 OV Antonio Cochran DE Georgia EAV 13, TAV 19, DIFF +6

5 R 7 P 140 OV Floyd Wedderburn OT Penn State EAV 11 TAV 12, DIFF +1

5 R 19 p 152 OV Charlie Rogers RB Georgia Tech EAV 10, TAV 3, Diff -7

6 R 1 p 170 OV Steve Johnson CB EAV 9, TAV 0, diff -9

TOTAL DIFF: - 61 AV

2000 Mike Holmgren

1 R 19 P 19 OV Shaun Alexander RB Alabama EAV 36 TAV 68 DIFF +32

1 R 22 P 22 OV Chris McIntosh OT Wisconsin EAV 34 TAV 7 DIFF - 27

2 R 21 P 52 OV Ike Charlton LB Virginia Tech EAV 23 TAV 5 DIFF -18

3 R 18 P 80 OV Darrell Jackson WR Florida EAV 18 TAV 55 DIFF + 37

4 R 22 P 116 OV Marcus Bell DT Arizona EAV 13 TAV 13 DIFF 0

4 R 25 P 119 OV Isaiah Kacyvenski LB Harvard EAV 13 TAV 14 DIFF +1

6 R 9 P 175 OV James Williams WR Marshall EAV 8 TAV 4 DIFF -4

6 R 19 P 185 OV Tim Watson DT Rowan EAV 8 TAV 0 DIFF -8

6 R 24 P 190 OV John Hilliard DT Mississippi State EAV 7 TAV 6 DIFF -1

TOT DIFF : +12 AV

2001 Mike Holmgren

1 R 9 P 9 OV Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State EAV 46 TAV 35 DIFF -11

1 R 17 P 17 OV Steve Hutchinson G Michigan EAV 38 TAV 74 DIFF +36

2 R 9 P 40 OV Ken Lucas CB Mississippi EAV 27 TAV 46 DIFF +19

3 R 20 P 82 OV Heath Evans FB Auburn EAV 18 TAV 18 DIFF 0

4 R 9 P 104 OV Orlando Huff LB Fresno State EAV 15 TAV 22 DIFF +7

4 R 32 P 127 OV Curtis Fuller S TCU EAV 12 TAV 3 DIFF -9

4 R 33 P 128 OV Floyd Womack OT Mississippi State EAV 12 TAV 27 DIFF +15

5 R 9 P 140 OV Alex Bannister WR Eastern Kentucky EAV 11 TAV 1 DIFF -10

6 R 9 P 172 OV Josh Booty QB LSU EAV 8 TAV 0 DIFF -8

7 R 10 P 210 OV Harold Blackmon S Northwestern EAV 6 TAV 1 DIFF -5

7 R 22 P 222 OV Dennis Norman C Princeton EAV 5 TAV 15 DIFF +10

7 R 37 P 237 OV Kris Kocurek DT Texas Tech EAV 0 TAV 0 DIFF 0

TOT DIFF: +44 AV

2002 Mike Holmgren

1 R 28 P 28 OV Jerramy Steven TE Washington EAV 31 TAV 26 DIFF -5

2 R 22 P 54 OV Maurice Morris RB Oregon EAV 23 TAV 26 DIFF +2

2 R 28 P 60 OV Anton Palepoi DE UNLV EAV 22 TAV 3 DIFF -19

3 R 20 P 85 OV Kris Richard CB USC EAV 17 TAV 2 DIFF -15

4 R 22 P 120 OV Terreal Bierria S Georgia EAV 13 TAV 6 DIFF -7

5 R 11 P 146 OV Rocky Bernard DT Texas A&MEAV 10 TAV 32 DIFF +22

5 R 34 P 169 OV Ryan Hannam TE Northern Iowa EAV 9 TAV 6 DIFF -3

5 R 36 P 171 OV Matt Hill OT Boise State EAV 8 TAV 3 DIFF -5

6 R 22 P 194 OV Craig Jarrett P Michigan State EAV 7 TAV 0 DIFF -7

7 R 21 P 232 OV Jeff Kelly QB Southern Miss EAV O TAV O DIFF 0

TOT DIFF: -31

4 YEAR TOTAL: -36 AV. -9 AV AVERAGE PER YEAR

2003 Bob Ferguson

1 R 11 P 11 OV Marcus Trufant CB Washington State EAV 43 TAV 49 DIFF +6

2 R 10 P 42 OV Ken Hamlin S Arkansas EAV 26 TAV 41 DIFF +15

3 R 9 P 73 OV Wayne Hunter OT Hawaii EAV 19 TAV 5 DIFF -14

4 R 13 P 110 OV Seneca Wallace QB Iowa State EAV 14 TAV 13 DIFF -1

4 R 38 P 135 OV Solomon Bates LB Arizona State EAV 11 TAV 2 DIFF -9

5 R 30 P 165 OV Chris Davis FB Syracuse EAV 9 TAV 0 DIFF -9

6 R 10 P 183 OV Rashad Moore DT Tennessee EAV 8 TAV 11 DIFF +3

7 R 8 P 222 OV Josh Brown K Nebraska EAV 5 TAV 0 DIFF -5 (HONESTLY NOT SURE WHY HE GETS 0 AV, MAYBE CAUSE KICKERS ARE NOT HIGHLY VALUED?)

7 R 10 P 224 OV Taco Wallace WR Kansas State EAV 5 TAV O DIFF -5

TOT DIFF -21 AV

2004 Bob Ferguson

1 R 23 P 23 OV Marcus Tubbs DT EAV 34 TAV 10 DIFF -24

2 R 21 P 53 OV Michael Boulware S EAV 23 TAV 18 DIFF -5

3 R 21 P 84 OV Sean Locklear OT EAV 17 TAV 30 DIFF +13

4 R 20 P 116 OV Niko Koutouvides LB EAV 13 TAV 7 DIFF -6

5 R 25 P 157 OV D. J. Hackett WR EAV 10 TAV 13 DIFF +3

6 R 24 P 189 OV Craig Terrill DT EAV 7 TAV 8 DIFF +1

7 R 23 P 224 OV Donnie Jones P EAV 5 TAV 0 DIFF -5 (again not sure why no impact on av)

TOT DIFF: -23 AV

2 YEAR TOTAL - 44, -22 AV AVERAGE PER YEAR

2005 Tim Ruskell

1 R 26 P 26 OV Chris Spencer C EAV 32 TAV 23 DIFF -9

2 R 13 P 45 OV Lofa Tatupu LB EAV 25 TAV 48 DIFF +23

3 R 21 P 85 OV David Greene QB EAV 17 TAV 0 DIFF -17

3 R 34 P 98 OV Leroy Hill LB EAV 16 TAV 27 DIFF +11

4 R 4 P 105 OV Ray Willis OT EAV 15 TAV 10 DIFF -5

5 R 23 P 159 OV Jeb Huckeba DE EAV 9 TAV 0 DIFF -9

6 R 22 P 196 OV Tony Jackson TE EAV 7 TAV 0 DIFF -7

7 R 21 P 235 OV Cornelius Wortham LB EAV 0 TAV 1 DIFF +1

7 R 40 P 256 OV Doug Nienhuis OT EAV 0 TAV 0 DIFF 0

TOT DIFF -12 AV

2006 Tim Ruskell

1 R 31 P 31 OV Kelly Jennings CB EAV 30 TAV 19 DIFF -11

2 R 31 P 63 OV Darryl Tapp DE EAV 21 TAV 23 DIFF +2

4 R 31 P 128 OV Rob Sims G EAV 12 TAV 18 DIFF +6

5 R 31 P 163 OV David Kirtman FB EAV 9 TAV 0 DIFF - 9

7 R 31 P 239 OV Ryan Plackemeier P EAV 0 TAV 0 DIFF 0

7 R 41 P 249 OV Ben Obomanu WR EAV 0 TAV 5 DIFF +5

TOT DIFF: -7 AV

2007 Tim Ruskell

2 R 23 P 55 OV Josh Wilson CB EAV 23 TAV 18 DIFF - 5

3 R 22 P 85 OV Brandon Mebane DT EAV 17 TAV 22 DIFF +5

4 R 21 P 120 OV Baraka Atkins DE EAV 13 TAV 2 DIFF -11

4 R 25 P 124 OV Mansfield Wrotto G EAV 13 TAV 5 DIFF -8

5 R 24 P 161 OV Will Herring LB EAV 9 TAV 6 DIFF -3

6 R 23 P 197 OV Courtney Taylor WR EAV 7 TAV 1 DIFF -6

6 R 36 P 210 OV Jordan Kent WR EAV 6 TAV O DIFF -6

7 R 22 P 232 OV Steve Vallos G EAV 0 TAV 4 DIFF +4

TOT DIFF: -20 AV

2008 Tim Ruskell

1 R 28 P 28 OV Lawrence Jackson DE EAV 31 TAV 12 DIFF -19

2 R 7 P 38 OV John Carlson TE EAV 27 TAV 16 DIFF -11

4 R 22 P 121 OV Red Bryant DT EAV 13 TAV 4 DIFF -9

5 R 28 P 163 OV Owen Schmitt FB EAV 9 TAV 1 DIFF -8

6 R 23 P 189 OV Tyler Schmitt LS EAV 7 TAV 0 DIFF -7

7 R 26 P 233 OV Justin Forsett RB EAV 0 TAV 11 DIFF +11

7 R 28 P 235 OV Brandon Coutu K EAV 0 TAV 0 DIFF 0

TOT DIFF: -43 AV

4 years total: -82, -20.5 av average per year.

2009 Tim Ruskell

1 R 4 P 4 OV Aaron Curry LB EAV 56 TAV 12(60) DIFF +4

2 R 17 P 49 OV Max Unger C EAV 24 TAV 5(25) DIFF +1

3 R 27 P 91 OV Deon Butler WR EAV 16 TAV 4(20) DIFF +4

6 R 5 P 178 OV Mike Teel QB EAV 8 TAV O DIFF -8

7 R 36 P 245 OV Courtney Greene S EAV 0 TAV 4 DIFF +4

7 R 38 P 247 OV Nick Reed DE EAV 0 TAV 2(10) DIFF +10

7 R 39 P 248 OV Cameron Morrah TE EAV 0 TAV 2(10) DIFF +10

TOT DIFF: +25 AV estimation

2010 John Schneider ROOKIE YEAR

1 R 6 P 6 OV Russell Okung OT EAV 51 TAV 4(40) diff- 11

1 R 14 P 14 OV Earl Thomas S EAV 40 TAV 7(70) DIFF +30

2 R 28 P 60 OV Golden Tate WR EAV 22 TAV 2 (20) DIFF -2

4 R 13 P 111 OV Walter Thurmond III CB EAV 14 TAV 1(10) DIFF -4

4 R 29 P 127 OV E. J. Wilson DE EAV 12 TAV 0(0) DIFF -12

5 R 2 P 133 OV Kam Chancellor S EAV 12 TAV 1 (10) DIFF -2

6 R 16 P 185 OV Anthony McCoy TE EAV 8 TAV 0 (0) DIFF -8

7 R 38 P 245 OV Jameson Konz WR EAV 0 TAV 0 DIFF 0

TOT DIFF: -9 AV

A few notes about the last two drafts. Obviously there is a lot of time left for most of these players and you could see a dramatic improvement in some. Okung and chancellor should see significantly more playing time this year, and Unger will see time at his natural position. Morrah and McCoy are both up and coming TE and since Carlson went down both should see significant playing time.

Three things are clear, both Ferguson and Ruskell were terrible at drafting. Holmgren didnt do that bad of a job though he was slightly below average, and at the end of the year, I'm pretty sure Schneider will be our first GM in over a decade with a draft grade exceeding the average.

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