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The Myth of Momentum

Three weeks ago, the Seahawks beat the Giants on the Meadowlands.  It was a mostly unremarkable game, serving as a microcosm of New York's slow talent rot that culminated in the near-loss against the repugnant Miami Dolphins today.

Instead of sighing in relief, most Seahawk fans took that win as a milestone, another solid rock for Pete Carroll's rebuilding wagon to step upon.  It helps that the win came before a bye week, so we had two whole weeks to soak it in.  "They won!  On the road!  At 10AM!  Against a team that's supposed to be good!  Things are only looking up!"  The common thread throughout was this word that means little in reality but means everything to fantasy writers and sports pundits:  momentum.

The Seahawks beat a team they weren't supposed to beat.  So of course they would carry momentum through the bye week.  How does one have momentum in a bye week?  Fuck you, it's momentum and you're too much of a simpleton to understand.  Momentum will help them against the Browns.  Momentum will help Charlie Whitehurst go through his progressions, fix the run game, and get the defense off the field quicker.  Momentum.

The Seahawks lost to the Browns in one of the worst games in franchise history.  Seven days later, they lost to the Bengals in one of the worst games in franchise history.  None of that feel-good, media-friendly juju helped them in either case.

You should already see where I'm going with this, but just in case:  talent wins football games.  Momentum does not, and neither does narrative.  I don't care about the player's individual life stories or their halftime speeches.  I want my team to be good at football, and win football games because they're good at football.  Spare me the smokescreens.

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Momentum is intricately tied into confidence. Confidence dictates what throws a QB makes, what hole a RB hits, etc. And how is this game one of the worst in franchise history? It wasn’t THAT bad, was it?

Heresy grows from idleness.

by Corax --Nevermore-- on Oct 30, 2011 4:44 PM PDT reply actions  

And I'm not denying that the team as a whole isn't good

Good teams can overcome bad officiating, even for a half.

Heresy grows from idleness.

by Corax --Nevermore-- on Oct 30, 2011 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Damn these f**king voices in my head...

…they keep whispering names like Tom Flores and Stan Gelbaugh. I’m dizzy and ill, and no, it’s not because of that pitcher of Long Islands. If anything, those helped ease the nausea.

Fellow Hawkers, I’m starting to feel like it’s 1992 all over again. We’re awful, playing boring football, and there’s a few heavily hyped QBs in next year’s draft that we’re hoping for. I’m just wondering if we get the ‘Drew Bledsoe’ this time, or end up with another…gags…Rick Mirer?

"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer."--Frank Zappa

by TruckTruckGoose on Oct 30, 2011 4:53 PM PDT reply actions  

You're right

Schneider’s going to steal Aaron Rodgers in the dead of night and have him work here.

I respect your opinion even though it's wrong.

by SSreporters on Oct 30, 2011 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, you're right

John Schneider has been GM here since the franchise began.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Oct 30, 2011 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

He was born to GM

At age 9 he advised the Seahawks to draft Kenny Easley.

I respect your opinion even though it's wrong.

by SSreporters on Oct 30, 2011 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

maybe

I think with all the scrutiny though in this era it’s harder to get a bust of a QB, because the college game has evolved to the point where it can be seen as a smaller facsimile of the pro game, albeit with a talent disparity.

Heresy grows from idleness.

by Corax --Nevermore-- on Oct 30, 2011 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

We did learn a lot today. And the signs for the future aren't all bad...

1. Both our quarterbacks are bad, but Tarvaris is much better than Charlie.

2. Our tight ends drop a lot of balls.

3. Richard Sherman might be for real.

4. Doug Baldwin is definitely for real.

5. With the talent on this team, all we’re missing to really go places is competence at quarterback. Ryan Tannehill here we come.

by pacificsands on Oct 30, 2011 4:55 PM PDT reply actions  

I really dont think TJ is bad

Just like I never thought CW should start… I dare the majority of people to say they haven’t built an idea on TJ based on what the media said.

Seriously, the Vikings system seems too impatient to actually get good results. Outside of one impatient choice to have Favre at the helm, which way did that system go? So i take the press on him as rubbish, being fully pinned on him so no one can see the real problem in Minnesota.

I honestly want to see more linemen, monsters on our front. And I want to see the experience of being together brings when the whole roster isn’t turned over dramatically again.

by Zak Venturo on Oct 30, 2011 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

you know, i might be crazy as hell for saying this. and no im not drunk or high but...

i think t-jax has improved really good, and (this is my opinion) i think he should start next year. yep, i said it. jackson should stay one more year.

by SpankySpanks12 on Oct 30, 2011 4:58 PM PDT reply actions   3 recs

If he starts one more year I will burn the city

They cannot dick around anymore with veterans.

Dalton and Newton and Ponder convinced me that there is no more need to sit a QB for a year to let him learn the ropes.

I respect your opinion even though it's wrong.

by SSreporters on Oct 30, 2011 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't mean to downplay too much

Because who knows, maybe Dalton and Ponder will be great QBs.

But that said, Ponder was an infamously hot and cold QB in college, and his completion rate so far is at 51%.

Dalton is doing well for rookie standards, but his YPA and passer rating are both slightly below the NFL median from last year.

Cam Newton has been terrific, but I think most people understood he had this potential and there were some who said before he was drafted that he was more NFL ready that given credit for.

Also, Tarvaris Jackson had an outstanding 8.1 YPA today despite an asston of drops. Bad timing to bitch about QBs, IMO. He outplayed Dalton pretty handily I thought.

by Kip Earlywine on Oct 31, 2011 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

yes

and lets draft these guys :

Jonathan Martin and Matt Kalil

by Zak Venturo on Oct 30, 2011 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

No.

"You SUCK, Keary Colbert! You should be selling insurance. INSURANCE, Keary!
-Random drunk Hawks fan in Miami after watching Keary Colbert drop another wide-open pass.

It's Great To Be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Oct 31, 2011 5:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

O-LINE IN EVERY ROUND!!

WOO HOO YOU CAN WIN THE SUPERBOWL

"You SUCK, Keary Colbert! You should be selling insurance. INSURANCE, Keary!
-Random drunk Hawks fan in Miami after watching Keary Colbert drop another wide-open pass.

It's Great To Be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Oct 31, 2011 5:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Damn, the Seahawks spent the bye week forgetting how to play offense.

Sloppy penalties aside, the Seahawks D was just as good this week as they were against a far-weaker Cleveland offense last week. Once our o-line figures out how to block, maybe we can score more than 1 touchdown over 8 quarters.

by J.L. White on Oct 30, 2011 4:58 PM PDT reply actions  

I know momentum is not a falsifiable thing, but I feel a little patronized reading this.

I guess if we’re going to discuss momentum, I’d rather discuss — well, first, the falsifiability, but then — the merits of either side, complete with some exploration about what we think momentum is — something sure to vary from fan to fan.

I don’t feel comfortable with the idea that some kind of undefined bubble has been popped because of the convenient results immediately at hand, that the team followed up a surprising win with two underwhelming performances. I don’t know who subscribes to the notion of momentum as Benne takes the liberty of defining (at least tacitly) to begin with. And I sure don’t want to do it minutes after a frustrating loss when emotion through the community is certain to be rather prickly.

Head of catering.

by jacobstevens on Oct 30, 2011 5:01 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree with some of your statements.

I don’t understand the pith of this entire posting. Is it to criticize the fans that thought something might be brewing after the Giants game?

Is it criticizing people who wanted to see more of Whitehurst?

The complaint about player narratives doesn’t even make sense.
It’s a poor post, with no real thrust, that actually feels derogatory for being a fan of the Seahawks.

by wyobo on Oct 30, 2011 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks mate, appreciate your comments.

Don't be an idiot. If an idiot would do that, then don't do it. Muahahahaaha back on twitter

by RagingAlot on Oct 30, 2011 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good luck.

Dalton and Green will do great things for you.

by Benne on Oct 30, 2011 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

In BED!!

As for the Seahawks, they shall have stars at elbow and foot...Though they sink through the sea they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion.

by Cheddar28 on Oct 31, 2011 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

No

trust me, at this stage, you DO want to play us again. General consensus around here is that we’re bad now, but we’ve evolving. And so should be pretty good next year/end of this year. Sigh for rebuilding, but the growing pains are all things we have to live through. Sure, we’ll complain, but we know that this year was never going to be our year.

Heresy grows from idleness.

by Corax --Nevermore-- on Oct 30, 2011 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Can't argue with that

If anybody else knows about the long term pains of mediocrity, it’s Cincinnati.

"That's funny. I post here all the time and I never see (you) here."
- GreatGoogly, to John Morgan

"John Morgan IS Field Gulls, asshole!"

by Clendy on Oct 30, 2011 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

hehe

Heresy grows from idleness.

by Corax --Nevermore-- on Oct 30, 2011 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks man, nice post

Formerly knows as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii

by Thomas Beekers on Oct 30, 2011 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

thanks i agree perfectly

we outplayed the bengals for most of the game.

i really like jackson. he is confident, accurate enough, and competent enough to lead this team for the next several years.

our team is learning to play speed em up football. it will take this season to learn and the style of offense we are playing. we can tell by the amount of false starts by our YOUNG oline and the wrong routes by the wr’s and tightends.

remember we went from a conventional look offense to hurry up, no huddle, short huddle offense.

our offense works best when the entire team is playing as a team and we are not close to getting there yet. we see moments of it. when we are in sink the opposing defense struggle to keep pace.

im new to this sport but it seems we have the wrong personal on the offense side of the ball to play hurry up offense. we need quick, smart, and instinctive players especially on the oline. players who can diagnose and adjust on the fly and hold the initial point for QUICK reads and outs by the qb. and more draw type and quick hitting one gap and burst rb’s.

i think our wr’s hurt us the most. we really need wr’s who can adjust, read, and adapt to the style of play the defense is playing against us. i really like obo, he seems to adjust to the ball better than the rest of our wr’s. there was a play where it was obvious the pressure was coming from okung’s side. tavaris threw the ball early and to obo’s back shoulder obo seemed to know and adjusted his route to catch the ball. obo did it again, he did a double or triple hitch move during an offensive break down and i think tavaris hit him in stride.

i really like obo’s play of late. if he just had better hands i think he would be our best overall wr

by genax on Oct 31, 2011 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'm not excusing the Seahawks shitty play

But I am still in awe at how terrible the referee crew was.

by DetectiveM on Oct 30, 2011 5:02 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

This game got me excited about the future.

There are emerging stars all over the team. I can’t wait to see what Pete Carroll can do with a 1st round QB.

by DetectiveM on Oct 30, 2011 5:07 PM PDT reply actions  

I admit I was worried about Sherman.

he is big and I thought we couldn’t over come two corners grabbing penalties like browner, but I was actually really impressed. On his INT, he looked like a 5’ 9 CB with how fluid he broke on the ball, got in position and then took it. Only he was much taller.
Over all I wonder how good our D could be if Browner didn’t get called for a penalty every 6 plays.

by Oliudyen on Oct 30, 2011 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Upon further review

This team is far too stupid to reach the 5 win mark. It’s correctable. Hopefully. But for now this is another lousy display of football. From coaching staff to players this team is the dumbest and most undisciplined team in the 21st century era of the Seattle Seahawks.

Stupid, asinine offsides every week. And it’s not exclusively rookies. Clemons and Bryant do this every week. Our QBs apparently hard count their way into getting our line to jump and not theirs. Browner is a penalty monger. Carpenter appears to be a slow learner….and just slow in movement in general.

Bevell seems to be serial-stalker obsessed with establishing the run when it clearly isn’t working. What is it going to take to get a RB-by-committee system? Lynch isn’t a 90% of the carries guy and Forsett/Leon are not your 1-2 combo because they have similar skillsets. There is no change-of-pace on this team. I no longer care about using the run to set up the pass. Honestly the only thing I see that is different from him and Greg Knapp is the usage of fullbacks and the lack of trick plays from DB. If we just had a OC like Pete Carmichael Jr. and a few other players this offense could be electric. It will come. There’s no way Bevell lasts very long here and he’s only on a two-year deal.

That 4th and 2 disaster is yet another case of horrendous clock management by the coaching staff. If you’re going to go for it you have to throw. Complete and utter disaster. The 61 yard field goal and 4th and 2 now are boo-boos in Carroll’s game management skills.

I really have no complaints about the defense’s performance. I would’ve liked to see more blitzes but they probably dropped more in coverage to prevent Sherman and Browner to be out on their own.

Special teams…..Leon appears to be a much better punt returner than kick returner this year. Can we skip over Forsett and try and get Tate as the secondary kick return man? And the coverage on both sides of the ball on punts and kicks was abysmal yet again. Almost vintage DeHaven from a squad that was fantastic last year.

I needed that rant. Seattle is 2-5 and for the first time in a long time they’ve actually had to play a murderous schedule from start to finish. Rams and Cards aside, there isn’t a single game now I consider the Seahawks to “likely win”.

Oh well, it can only go up from here, right?

I respect your opinion even though it's wrong.

by SSreporters on Oct 30, 2011 5:15 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Agreed.

It’s a young team, and this season is going to be rough. There’s a lot of potential that I think will develop over time. If they get a good young QB and some help on the D-line, and more discipline on the penalty front, I think this team will be something special.

by splintrdmind on Oct 30, 2011 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Penalties alone

Could easily have turned the browns game around, and they didn’t help today.

by Oliudyen on Oct 30, 2011 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, this running game is just...ugh.

We need a new back. IMHO we have three second string running backs, and like you said, two of them are identical.

With this o-line in the shape its in, we need a Michael Turner.

"You SUCK, Keary Colbert! You should be selling insurance. INSURANCE, Keary!
-Random drunk Hawks fan in Miami after watching Keary Colbert drop another wide-open pass.

It's Great To Be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Oct 31, 2011 5:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

"talent wins football games"

I think the Eagles’ fans would disagree. Talent without scheme or chemistry isn’t worth much in football.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Oct 30, 2011 5:29 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree with both the sentiment that momentum is primarily a myth, and that this was not one of the worst games in franchise history.

And in the concept that momentum is a real thing.

But momentum isn’t and will never be a measureable; you cannot count on it, and it takes more than a single game against the Giants to create it. Momentum does not carry over from year to year,or game to game, or quarter to quarter, or even play to play. But, it can carry over from year to year, or game to game, or quarter to quarter, or even play to play.

The most important thing about momentum is this— momentum can only be viewed in hindsight as being true and real (or a false positive), because reality and the bounce of the football does not react to the “momentum” a fan-base or a team believe they possess in the present tense.

"How much blow can Charlie Sheen do? Enough to kill two and a half men." -Jon Lovitz

by Tyler Jorgensen on Oct 30, 2011 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

This reminds me of the winning culture you and I went round and round about

The difference is that I do believe in a winning culture. I don’t believe in momentum for momentum sake. I think players/coaches need to learn to win tough games. Not get and shake off penalties. Trust their team and their system and not force things. These and many more are what builds that winning culture which wins the comebacks. Yes you have to have the talent to do it, but if you have a winning culture you can make the illusion of momentum. But it will be just an illusion and the reality is that you will have taken good talent, put it in a good system, let it mature and then trusted it.

they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!

by stufr on Oct 30, 2011 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes.

We might have to have another of these threads soon…

"Now I'm tired of this s---. I'm sick and f------ tired of an 8-10 record. I'm f------ tired of losing to Purdue. I'm not here to f--- around this week. Now you may be, but I'm not." -- Bobby Knight, circa 1992

by Tyler Jorgensen on Oct 30, 2011 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

We don't have one yet

If you were wondering my opinion. Too many critical mental errors. We have to learn to get passed ourselves.

they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!

by stufr on Oct 30, 2011 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Thanks.

I thought I was pretty spot on with this… and honestly it’s because I both love and believe in momentum, and hate it because I am not sure it’s any more real than Wade Boggs eating chicken before a game or how the order I tied my shoes and the lucky underwear I wore for college basketball games.

"Now I'm tired of this s---. I'm sick and f------ tired of an 8-10 record. I'm f------ tired of losing to Purdue. I'm not here to f--- around this week. Now you may be, but I'm not." -- Bobby Knight, circa 1992

by Tyler Jorgensen on Oct 30, 2011 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with this post

But I would add that momentum for the fans is probably different than momentum for the players. Anyone that’s played football here has experienced it. For example, a lineman engaged in the battle of his life / best game of his life is going to feel the pulse of the game a lot differently than a fan simply observing the results.

by Kip Earlywine on Oct 31, 2011 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Evidently now we aren't allowed to criticize an article

Criticism should be taken, not censored

they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!

by stufr on Oct 30, 2011 10:33 PM PDT reply actions   3 recs

Yeah

Censorship can get big around here. Deleting posts, banning, ect. Kinda hostile for arguing against mods. But its quite alright for people to talk about what they are hiding under their under roos in a very negative way.

by Oliudyen on Oct 30, 2011 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh bullshit.

When you post belligerant, rude comments towards anyone, they get hidden and warnings are issued.

by BrianL on Oct 31, 2011 6:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Cries of censorship on the internet are the most pathetic comments ever.

There are site rules, they’re on the sidebar, and it makes me want to rip my hair out every time someone gets pissy when comments get hidden for breaking them.

by BrianL on Oct 31, 2011 6:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Zero comment content management = ESPN boards. It's that simple.

Seriously, dude, sometimes the things you (hypothetical) say have consequences and/or aren’t listened to and that is not wrong.

As for the Seahawks, they shall have stars at elbow and foot...Though they sink through the sea they shall rise again...Death shall have no dominion.

by Cheddar28 on Oct 31, 2011 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't mean it as an attack just a simple statement

I didn’t think he has a very good argument, just an emotional reaction that isn’t up to normal front page standards. Saying that doesn’t break any rules, its just my opinion.

they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!

by stufr on Oct 31, 2011 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

The whole article is an attack

That was my point. Its not an intellectual argument, he is just attacking people who disagree with him, using current circumstances to support his attack. My only point was that I don’t like this type of article on the front page. Nothing against him personally, or even his opinion, I just don’t appreciate the article.

they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!

by stufr on Oct 31, 2011 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Sounds like sound, possibly valid criticism

Certainly not what we’re censoring. I hope.

Formerly knows as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii

by Thomas Beekers on Nov 1, 2011 5:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

How is it an attack?

And why shouldn’t it be on the front page? This wasn’t my favorite article but I don’t see this as much more than challenging an idea.

by Nate Dogg on Nov 1, 2011 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

He wasn't being a jerk. At least not in the context of this sub-thread.

No reason to be so upset Brian. I’m not going to tell you how to do your job, and I appreciate that you work hard to keep order. I think we all agree on that.

I also agree with stufr that the article itself draws first blood, and opens itself up to smack talk since the article itself was smack talk. That should be factored when reacting/censoring comments I think.

by Kip Earlywine on Nov 1, 2011 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

You need talent but momentum is real

revisit the Huskies basketball when Romar took over a losing franchise. They were losing to Oregon State late at midseason when Nate Robionson just went off. They won it at the buzzer with a three point bomb and the lights for the team turned on. The coach said that was the night when every member bought in to his concept and they haven’t looked back. Momentum.

by Snow Hawk on Oct 30, 2011 10:37 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

We need to see Josh Portis play... Who knows, might be the QBOTF

If so we draft a RB…. Knile Davis, Polk, Trent Richardson, or even LaMichael James.
If not…. We go for RG3 (Robert Griffin III)
This kid is amazing. I was praying for them to loose last yesterday, so his stock will fall.
He threw for over 450 yards. His team sucks. Baylor D is like Seahawks offense

by paytonrex on Oct 31, 2011 12:02 AM PDT reply actions  

What impresses me about Griffin is how he has improved

He’s still unrefined, but that’s incredible compared to just a few weeks ago when he had the footwork and throwing motion of a caveman.

I have no idea where RBIII’s draft stock will be. Not long ago I would have said 4th round, but if he keeps this up, front offices will notice when they retreat to intensive film study in a couple months. He could end up another Josh Freeman type riser.

Also, I’m a huge fan of Davis and Polk. Its going to sting if neither declare.

by Kip Earlywine on Oct 31, 2011 2:11 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Anyone who's played the sport knows that momentum is real, if difficult to quantify

Using the recent example of the Giants game doesn’t work, because Seattle’s momentum was tied to the performance of Tarvaris Jackson, who was hurt. He didn’t play in the Cleveland game, and if he had, Seattle almost certainly would have won it. And when he did play today, he played well (8.1 YPA) despite a truckload of drops. Seattle outgained the Browns by roughly 150 yards, with nearly identical penalty and turnover numbers. They play that game 100 times with those kind of figures, they probably win 80-90 of them. Today was a rare “XL” trifecta of blown calls, timely drops, and big plays given up.

Now, please don’t misconstrue what I’m saying to mean that teams should do something stupid like building around chemistry. No, you are obsolutely right when you say talent rules the day. But lets not dismiss momentum and good bounces. In 2008, the Packers were one of the better statistical teams in the NFL, and went 6-10. Since then, they’ve gone 32-12 and won a Superbowl. With time, talent will win out, but for that to begin, teams have to get in a rhythm and play level headed, confident football.

by Kip Earlywine on Oct 31, 2011 1:36 AM PDT reply actions   2 recs

Good stuff.

I have honestly gone back to look at that very figure for Jackson a couple times now. 8.1 YPA. His EPA & WPA didn’t come up looking that nice, and his AYPA was 6.2, but even still it feels like Seattle hasn’t reached raw YPA above about 6.8 in years.

Head of catering.

by jacobstevens on Oct 31, 2011 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

I love Win Expectancy stuff, I post Win charts all the time at 17power

but its useless for evaluating a player.

As far as AYPA, its a good stat. The reason his AYPA is 6.2 is because it includes data from the three games before his hot streak began, and because Jackson has had a moderately high number of interceptions.

by Kip Earlywine on Oct 31, 2011 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

WPA measures on-the-ball play

While they aren’t very effective in measuring the contributions of many positions, they may have some value in measuring QB effectiveness, if only because the QB has the ball in his hands on the vast majority of snaps (unlike, say, a DB or an OL).

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Oct 31, 2011 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

WPA means "win probability added"

Its highly influenced by game situation. For example, Brandon Browner had one of the highest WPA plays of the entire NFL season by catching a tipped pass and returning it for a TD. It was a great play to be sure, but if it had happened in the 2nd quarter instead of the 4th, or with a lead margin much greater, the WPA score would have been dramatically lower. For the same exact play.

Win probability has its uses. Its good for coaches to be familiar with as it can help determine a decision to go for it on 4th down. But its mostly a fun stat, a chart-able stat that objectively shows the pulse of the game that we fans feel through the lens of our own emotions.

by Kip Earlywine on Nov 1, 2011 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, WPA does a very poor job of comparing defensive players

but it’s a lot more applicable for QBs and is one of the foundations of QBR. Yes, it takes into account “game leverage”, but isn’t necessarily a negative as it weights competitive play (high leverage situations) over “garbage time stats” (low leverage situations). WPA is still not ideal for evaluating individual players (especially any player that plays off-the-ball) but it still has some value, especially when used to evaluate on-the-ball play of similar players, in the context of other stats.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Nov 2, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

This could have been attributed to learning new WRs.

the one he did know was hurt the first couple of games. Now it seems he is way more confident with the players, and what they excell at. Or even more maybe Bevell has become more comfortable and knowledgable too. Our biggest issue is our run game sucks epic bad.

by Oliudyen on Nov 1, 2011 2:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

wtf

It just deleted my post instantly on publish, but duplicated my subject line.

by Kip Earlywine on Oct 31, 2011 1:37 AM PDT reply actions  

lets try again

Its never as good the 2nd time but….

Basically, “momentum” is often tied to the performance and cohesiveness of a unit. Remember when “the lightbulb came on” for Hasselbeck against Dallas in 2002? He went on an absolute tear the rest of that season, and played well for 3 years after as well.

Momentum is not the end all or be all, and certainly no one would suggest building an NFL roster for the sake of chemistry. But it does exist. Perhaps it is merely psychological, but it exists. At least during the course of a game itself. Game to game, less so, but there are examples of players “turning a corner” and building off that. I don’t know if that should be called momentum or not, but its at the heart of any team with the appearance of momentum.

The example of the recent 3 games doesn’t work well, since Seattle’s “momentum” was born from Tarvaris Jackson’s transformation beginning in the 2nd half of the Falcon’s game. Jackson almost completed the comeback against Atlanta, then beat the Giants and got hurt. He didn’t play in the Cleveland game, and judging by the result, I think its safe to say he probably would have won that game had he played. Now today he lost, but due mostly to a “XL” trifecta of drops, penalties, and big plays. Seattle outgained Cincy by about 150 yards, and was nearly identical in penalties and turnovers. If they play that game 100 times, Seattle wins a lot more than they lose with that set of data.

So in other words, who’s to say that their “momentum” was really stopped at all? They lost only one game with the source of that momentum playing, and it was in a highly unusual manner.

by Kip Earlywine on Oct 31, 2011 1:48 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Psychology plays an important role in competition

even in such talent-pure sports as power-lifting and arm wrestling. In team sports, I can only imagine that group dynamics and the “locker room chemistry” play an even greater role.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Oct 31, 2011 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Your premise is wrong.

Talent, guts, preparation, discipline, performance, coaching, luck, instinct, physical domination,confidence, faith and persistence all are parts of winning football teams. Momentum is the word we use to describe the combination of all of these factors in a team performance over the course of sequential plays, sequential games, and sequential seasons.

Smashmouth is the new sexy!

by pqlqi on Oct 31, 2011 1:28 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

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