DraftWatch - Week 9
by Hmph on Nov 8, 2011 9:03 AM PST
Email
Print
I think we all knew it was an eventuality.
Like LeBron taking his talents to South Beach, Frank McCourt relinquishing control of the Dodgers, and Kim Kardashian divorcing that guy, everyone following this season came in knowing that the Indianapolis Colts were far and away the worst team in the league without Peyton Manning under center, and that it would just be a matter of time for reality to match perception. Nine weeks into the season, the Colts are the last winless team in the NFL - and except for three "winnable" games, two against Jacksonville and one against Carolina, it's going to be difficult for another team to sink below their record.
So while the Suck For Luck sweepstakes appears to be all but locked up, there's still plenty of drama going on in the first 10 picks of the draft. Seattle has moved up a peg to the #7 spot, and could very easily move up if Cam Newton, Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert start winning games for their respective teams.
In any event, here's how the teams are ranked halfway into the season:
1. Colts (0-9, .538 SOS)
2. Dolphins (1-7, .543 SOS)
3. Rams (1-7, .562 SOS)
4. Cardinals (2-6, .473 SOS)
5. Panthers (2-6, .500 SOS)
6. Jaguars (2-6, .515 SOS)
**7. Seahawks (2-6, .519 SOS)**
8. Vikings (2-6, .566 SOS)
9. Redskins (3-5, .469 SOS)
10. Browns (3-5, .492 SOS)
11. Eagles (3-5, .500 SOS)
12. Broncos (3-5, .555 SOS)
13. Titans (4-4, .463 SOS)
14. Chiefs (4-4, .492 SOS)
15. Cowboys (4-4, .500 SOS)
16. Raiders (4-4, .523 SOS)
17. Chargers (4-4, .527 SOS)
18. Buccaneers (4-4, .530 SOS)
19. Patriots (5-3, .462 SOS)
20. Falcons (5-3, .470 SOS)
21. Jets (5-3, .477 SOS)
22. Bills (5-3, .492 SOS)
23. Bears (5-3, .535 SOS)
24. Texans (6-3, .417 SOS)
25. Saints (6-3, .477 SOS)
26. Steelers (6-3, .485 SOS)
27. Bengals (6-2, .470 SOS)
28. Ravens (6-2, .477 SOS)
29. Giants (6-2, .496 SOS)
30. Lions (6-2, .550 SOS)
31. 49ers (7-1, .442 SOS)
32. Packers (8-0, .488 SOS)
(Strength of Schedule is the total win-loss percentage of every opponent on a team's schedule. Divisional opponents are counted twice since they appear on the schedule twice. If there's a tie for schedule strength, divisional record breaks the tie.)
So the good news is that Seattle has one less team to sweat out in terms of drafting a replacement for Tavarlie Whiteson, and spots 3 through 6 are held by teams that are pretty much committed to their QB, either because they just drafted one or spent a lot of money on one during the offseason. (Yes, Arizona, I'm looking directly at you.) The bad news is that the two teams besides Seattle that are most desperate for quarterback help are picking first and second right now, meaning that there's a very good chance that Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley go 1-2 in the draft if this order holds up. The Colts may end up running away with the top pick, but Seahawk fans may want to start rooting for the Dolphins the rest of the year - thanks to the relative strength of the AFC East (everyone else in the division is at 5-3), Miami has such a strong schedule that just one more win would knock them from second all the way to seventh - and one spot behind Seattle in the draft order.
The Dolphins play an early game against the Redskins next week. Just sayin'.
60 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Awesome perspective on the Dolphins`
Imma root for them up and down this bidnis.
Formerly knows as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Nov 8, 2011 1:00 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
I was JUST wondering if a draft order like this was online
Thank you.
Not only is it better to root for Miami now, I don’t really mind them as a team, so watching them win a few more games is sort of win-win you could say.
With Seattle facing a tough stretch of schedule, I can see this draft list moving around a bit.
In my opinion, you should make a similar post every week, just to see if and who moves in position. I will keep a look out.
Twitter- @GriffinNW
by GriffinNW on Nov 8, 2011 1:10 AM PST via mobile reply actions
He does make this post every week
Formerly knows as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Nov 8, 2011 1:13 AM PST up reply actions
As I contined through FanPosts I kept seeing his weekly posts
My bad, spoke a little too soon. I’ve been a little out of the loop on this site lately because of work.
Keep up the good work.
Twitter- @GriffinNW
by GriffinNW on Nov 8, 2011 1:16 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
No worries. Stick around, if you can!
Formerly knows as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Nov 8, 2011 1:44 AM PST up reply actions
Oh no, there are worries
lots of them
I Bleed Blue and Green
ME...Tweeting Stuff! About my upcoming game...and other random musings.
If the Seahawks are going to suck, I guess I would like to see us suck more than at least one of the Cards or Rams.
Why do we have to be the division that has the two worst teams in the NFC?
follow @casetines
I can see us going 1-2 or worse against them though.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
It's not all but over. There's plenty of talk around the league that Manning will play at the end of the season.
The arguments are: 1. he’s not been put on injured reserve, 2. the team will want to see how he can play when/if his neck heals before the end of the season.
Hell … wouldn’t you? I know Luck is a damn great prospect, but Peyton Manning is a HOF QB that could easily play at a high level for 3-4 more years, barring setback on his neck. It’s too early for that team to pull the plug on him.
SO … if he plays before the end of the season, and plays well, who knows what’ll happen?
Always up for some Twitter action @nandron. I only talk NW sports, though.
Agreed.
Jags, Bye, Panthers the next three weeks, both games at home.
Manning seemingly wants to play. Wants to prove his health. Wants to keep the team from being terrible. Jim Caldwell wants to do whatever he can to salvage his job. Bill Polian is pissed. Titans, Texans, @Jags to finish the year. Colts could conceivably win 3 or 4 of their last 7 games.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 8, 2011 8:51 AM PST up reply actions
Manning wins some games =
No stud prospect next year trying to take his job.
He’s got motivation.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
by hazbro24 on Nov 8, 2011 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Or he knows he's coming back
The Colts still win the draft race and they trade the 1st pick for a ton of assets to rebuild the team (around Manning).
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Nov 8, 2011 9:15 AM PST up reply actions
If he's on IR, he can't practice with the team
I think they’re only keeping him off IR to monitor his recovery. If it looks like he won’t be able to make it back in 2012, they can cut him without paying him any of his extension and can feel free to sign Luck. It’s not about being able to field a competitive team at the end of the year, it’s about giving them a better idea of whether they should draft Luck or not.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Nov 8, 2011 9:14 AM PST up reply actions
He can't practice with the team anyway
You can monitor recovery without putting him in team practices.
Formerly knows as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Nov 8, 2011 9:17 AM PST up reply actions
Yes, he's too injured to practice now
No, it’s not unhelpful to put him in practice to better monitor his recovery later in the season. There’s a big diference between what you can learn from an MRI and what you can learn from putting a player on the field.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Nov 8, 2011 9:35 AM PST up reply actions
Pretty sure they can still put him on the field
Just not with the team.
Formerly knows as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Nov 8, 2011 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
I can't find the official rules, but Wikipedia tells me this:
A team may place a player on injured reserve (reserve/injured list) who is “not immediately available for participation with a club”. These players may not practice or return to the Active List for the rest of the season (including postseason games) that they are placed on injured reserve, but are allowed to be with the team.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Injured_reserve_list
It seems like having a player “practice” for team officials would still violate these rules, even if it wasn’t in the company of other members of the team. Who knows, I could be wrong, though.
There’s also the issue that there likely could be a power struggle over the direction of the team (between Polian and Manning) if drafting Luck is on the table, and this might give the GM a little more leverage.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Nov 8, 2011 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
Well run teams...
Don’t keep a guy too long for sentimental reasons, Colts would be foolish to not trade Manning and draft Luck.
That said, I am having a hard time with the Colts getting Luck. They already had the best QB the past 10-15 years, they don’t need the next future All-Pro QB just handed to them.
Like I said last week
I’d much rather see Luck go to the Colts than any team in the NFC, Setting aside the whole “Colts get another elite QB for the next decade” resentment, we’ll only have to face them once every four years, and would only meet in the postseason if we both reach the Super Bowl.
"There's an old saying - revenge is a dish best served immediately."
There's plenty more wrong with the Colts than just the QB position.
The haul they could receive in trading the #1 pick would (probably) be too great for Indy to pass up; hell, I could see them trading that pick AND cutting Manning in the offseason, and totally starting over with a literal tonnage of draft picks and cap space.
The Colts are much too talent-deprived to draft Luck and keep Manning’s $100 million contract on the books….and cutting Peyton, The Face (and gigantic head) Of The Organization, is not as easy as it sounds.
by J.L. White on Nov 8, 2011 11:24 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh, that last sentence is so true
I mean, this guy who’s been so good, consistently good, for so many years can’t just get cut like that. Well, no, I’m wrong – he could get cut just like that, but it would be such an insensitively bad horrific turbulent turrible move it wouldn’t even be funny.
Heresy grows from idleness.
by Corax --Nevermore-- on Nov 8, 2011 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
They won't cut him
He’s going to play as long as he wants and when he’s ready to retire he’ll join the coaching staff and eventually become the head coach there. At the beginning of the year Peyton had to tell the team to not pay him so much because they needed the cap space for other players.
That being said, I still think they take Luck if they have the pick. For one they know just how much you can do if you have an elite QB. They also have the Aaron Rogers model staring them in the face. Maybe it gets tricky after a couple of years of Luck on the bench but you all but guarantee his success by letting him learn the system for a few years.
by Billy Showbiz on Nov 8, 2011 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
What if Manning
decides to trade himself, then quits the team he’s traded to, resigns with Indy for the vet minimum, and takes over the world? IT’S ALL PART OF HIS PLAN!
It was just intense, and it was ball, and it was juice. The juice level in that room was high, and it was awesome.
If they traded the pick and Manning
They could end up with 5 first round picks and dump a bunch of the contract money.
Of course they won’t be as good – but they aren’t good now.
I still say Manning's $100 million contract is untradeable.
The only way another team would even want Manning (even if he’s willing to restructure his deal) is if he’s 100% healthy….so why wouldn’t the Colts just keep him in that scenario?
It’s FAR too early to start speculating on Manning’s trade potential.
That's a great point, and one I hadn't considered.
I get so caught up in the Luck thing, and forget that Indi is a team that has so many holes that, unless they have the league’s best QB under center, can’t win a single, solitary game. That’s simply not a recipe for long-term success, and they have been defying the odds for years with Peyton’s health.
by Highwatermark on Nov 8, 2011 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
There is also this option,
Trade back into the #2 pick and get Barkley and a haul of picks or trade back twice for even more picks and go with Jones or another QB later.
They could parlay this into about 8 picks.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
Depends how much the team with the #2 pick wants Luck.
Is Andrew Luck REALLY 8 draft picks better than Matt Barkley? My guess is that a team outside the Top 2 will pay a higher price to move up; Barkley seems like a perfectly reasonable consolidation prize.
Cutting Manning and trading away the right to draft Luck?
Come on, no franchise would do that. Jerry Jones is as likely to commit hara-kiri on live television.
"The time has come," the Walrus said, "to talk of many things."
It's unlikely....but if I'm a smart young soon-to-be-GM I'd salivate at the opportunity to totally remake a franchise.
Draft whoever you want, sign whoever you want….do it right and you could build a dynasty single-handedly. If a GM ever wanted to secure his place in Canton within 5 years of employment, that would be the way to do it.
There is no GM who would salivate to not draft Luck #1. That is a way to make
it into the hall of infamy…
Smashmouth is the new sexy!
Tavarlie Jackhurst
now that’s a QB name I’d like to hear on sundays
I Bleed Blue and Green
ME...Tweeting Stuff! About my upcoming game...and other random musings.
Tarcharis Whackhurson
Heresy grows from idleness.
by Corax --Nevermore-- on Nov 8, 2011 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Miami has bigger problems than QB
Matt Moore is a pretty good qb and with all the holes they have to fill throughout their roster it would be benifit them to draft biggest need first. We just have to worry about someone trading up. Barkley could fall right into our lap.
Or whatever QB Pete Caroll wants
I’m not sold on Barkley, USC relies on the run to much. I would rather find a QB that has to throw to win the game – and still posts good numbers.
Sooo, no to Andrew Luck then also
by B.B.Finnegan on Nov 8, 2011 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Far be it from me to defy every draft board
If Luck falls to the Seahawks I would scoop him up. I like RG3 a lot because he has to pass to win. Baylor’s defense sucks big time! With the defense waiting for the pass he has to be that much better.
Some of these other teams, like LSU and Alabama and Oklahoma, and yes USC, it just seems like they run more than they pass. And so the defense has to be playing the run and it should be easier to pass on them.
I would rate Stanford as being a little more on the pass side.
Ahem
Baylor
plays 621
pass 281
run 340
=45% pass
Stanford
plays 639
pass 284
run 355
=44% pass
USC
plays 638
pass 343
run 295
=54% pass
I'm surprised Stanford being such a great run team isn't brought up more
Also, Oklahoma and Landry Jones are very very heavy on the pass.
And holy molly last year Stanford was 41% percent pass
41% pass!! Can Luck even play without a run game? This is mind boggling me right now.
I think this is how Harbaugh wins, the 49ers have attempted the least amount of passes in the NFL, but the third most runs. So I wonder, how is Luck going to manage on an NFL team that has no to little run game? I’m becoming suspect. This shit needs looked into.
He's also had the benefit of great protection
He’s playing with a bunch of TE-heavy sets and has only taken 4 sacks this year (and 6 each of the previous 2 years).
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Nov 8, 2011 4:51 PM PST up reply actions
I don't doubt Luck's talent or athleticism
But I do doubt his ability to quickly adjust to the sort of inept offense a #1 drafting team will have. I think Barkley is much more suited to starting day 1 than Luck. Luck has been sacked almost as many times in his career as Barkley was sacked last year.
by Matt Erickson on Nov 8, 2011 6:19 PM PST up reply actions
Throw in how many sacks he has had in his career
And you will be at the same place that I have been. He might be good, but he is in one of the single best QB situations ever. He is set up to succeed. Not only do they run that much, but they do it well.
I would love to see his stats with garbage time removed. I think if you look at him before the run game has won the game for them the shine will come off.
they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!
Seriously,
The big 12 has no pass defense, crappy system QB’s have been torching that conference forever. So I put no stock into QB numbers coming out of OK or Baylor.
The Pac 12 is the closest thing to a pro style offense conference while the SEC is a pro style defense conference.
You go to the Pac 12 for QBs, the SEC for Corners and D, the big 12 for RBs and the big 10 for lineman. That’s generalizing, but it’s a long trend.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
by hazbro24 on Nov 8, 2011 2:30 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I think we need to worry about the Redskins leapfrogging us
Didn’t they amass a number of picks in the 2011 draft? It seemed like they were constantly trading down.
Cleveland and New England
Have two number one picks in 2012. I don’t know how New England keeps getting two picks in the first round – they got a sharp manager.
I sense a 'Draft'gate somewhere here...
Heresy grows from idleness.
by Corax --Nevermore-- on Nov 8, 2011 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
But neither need a QB.
I suppose Cleveland might, but having just invested in Colt last year, I dont see them bailing that quickly.
So in this upside down world "rooting for" Miami is really "rooting against" Miami?
Sweet! For no logical reason whatsoever since I can remember I’ve hated Marino’s face, thusly hating the Dolphins. Kind of how I still dispise the Broncos.
by brugg on Nov 8, 2011 3:01 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think the Colt's automatically drafting Luck is a lock...
depending on who’s offering the package.
Let’s say for example that a team in the 3-4 range was offering a package to the Colts…. would the Colt’s NOT be interested in gathering all that extra draft firepower to surround a guy like “Barkley” in that 3-4 range (should QBotF be their drive)?
You tell me…. Luck at #1?
or
Barkley + additional 1’st/2nd round picks to surround him with talent?
Which of these scenarios is more likely to produce results quicker? Just food for thought. There are no wrong answers.
Is head to head match ups used before SOS in draft order?
I’m curious because we have a game against Washington coming up at home- a very winnable game.
Head-to-head is only used for playoff seeding, not for drafts.
It’s record, then SOS, then divisional records, then a coinflip.
"There's an old saying - revenge is a dish best served immediately."
Just curious
Is your SoS based on records of teams played so far, or the records of all teams on the schedule?
All teams on the schedule.
Mainly because it’s only going to matter at the end of the season anyway, plus keeping track of what opponents everyone’s played so far is a hell of a lot more complicated than just doing the whole schedule each week.
"There's an old saying - revenge is a dish best served immediately."
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Field Gulls
Related FanShots on Field Gulls
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Former high-school star Brian Banks does serious time on trumped-up charge, now hopes for an NFL shot
- Former ‘idiot kicker’ Mike Vanderjagt in trouble after accosting junior-high heckler
- Adrian Peterson blows teammates away in footraces; appears to be on the mend
- UPDATE: Charlie Sheen didn’t buy Lawrence Taylor’s Super Bowl ring
- Alex Smith gets blown up by Jon Beason over Cam Newton comments
