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What is the Value of a Franchise Safety (or Two)?

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A discussion was raised in another fan post, "How badly do you want a franchise QB?", asking if you would want the Seahawks to trade away one of our (future all pro) safeties to move up and draft a QB. We all rehashed the perceived importance of the QB position in the dynasties over the last 2 decades. Certainly the QB position is a key piece of the cog, certainly QB performance depends on the pieces surrounding him on offense, certainly it is possible (though probably less likely) to win the Big One without an elite QB, or even with a good/elite QB who has a bad performance in the Super Bowl.

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But football is a team sport, and special teams and defense also certainly help win championships. So instead of rehashing the whole "What is the value of QB in winning a Superbowl" question, I present to my fellow 12th men and Fieldgullers the following table of Super Bowl winners, losers, and the starting safeties for the last 11 years:

2001 BAL Kim Herring/Rod Woodson --- NYG Sam Garnes/Shaun Williams
2002 NE Lawyer Milloy/Tebucky Jones --- STL Adam Archuletta/Kim Herring
2003 TB Dexter Jackson/John Lynch --- OAK Rod Woodson/Anthony Dorsett
2004 NE R Harrison/Eugene Wilson --- CAR Mike Minter/Deon Grant
2005 NE R Harrison/E Wilson --- PHI Michael Lewis/Brian Dawkins
2006 PIT T Polamalu/Chris Hope --- SEA M. Boulware/Marquand Manuel
2007 IND Bob Sanders/Antoine Bethea --- CHI Chris Harris/Danieal Manning
2008 NYG James Butler/Gibril Wilson --- NE R Harrison/James Sanders
2009 PIT Polamalu/Ryan Clark --- ARI Adrian Wilson/Antrel Rolle
2010 NO Roman Harper/Darren Sharper --- IND Melvin Bullit/Antoine Bethea
2011 GB Charlie Peprah/Nick Collins --- PIT Polamalu/R Clark

I've bolded a few of the names that stand out to me, but I've refrained from providing any statistical ranking as I cannot really conceive of a ranking system be able to accurately rate success at some position whose responsibilities are as amorphous as a safety.

Danny Kelly did a really nice piece on safety play in PCs defensive schemes. Essentially, Carroll sees the safety as the QB of the defense, deciding coverage, looking for weaknesses, compensating for scheme or individual failures on the fly, and being a leader. I personally think our safeties are both playing at a level that deserves consideration for Pro Bowl accolades. But I am also the first to admit that I do not have the requisite knowledge to determine if their performance from play to play warrants All Pro consideration, though as a Seahawks fan, I sure hope they are really that good.

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So, I pose the question "What is the value of a franchise safety (or two) in winning a Superbowl?"

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I think assuming Thomas and Chancellor are future all pros is getting ahead of ourselves.

It’s a pretty good list of safeties, Troy Polamalu is the only real stand out though. Zombie Rodney Harrison and Rod Woodson give it some extra name power, but I’m not sure how great either of those players were at those points in their career.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 15, 2011 2:44 PM PST reply actions  

It is actually a great list of safeties...

The safeties on this list represent winners of 15 of the 22 AP first team All Pro selections from 2000-2011 and numerous second team selections. Given that Ed Reed accounts for 5 of the other first team All Pro awards, it is pretty elite company.

Bob Sanders was awarded 2 Pro Bowl and 2 All Pro first team selections.
Antoine Bethea went to two Pro Bowls.
Lawyer Milloy went to 4 Pro Bowls and was All Pro once.
Darren Sharper was a 5 time Pro Bowler and 2 time All Pro.
Rodney Harrison was no zombie during that time, with 2 All Pro honors and 2 Pro Bowls between 98-03 at the peak of his career.
Rod Woodson was the best of the group, with 11 Pro Bowls, and 6 All Pro selections, turning in his last All Pro performance in 2002, 2 years after his Bal SB victory.
Brian Dawkins 8 Pro Bowls and 4 All Pro selections, peaking 2001-2006
John Lynch 9 PB, 2 All Pro selections…

Smashmouth is the new sexy!

by pqlqi on Dec 15, 2011 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Ah, I missed Dawkins.

Sharper, Harrison and Woodson were all over the hill when they got to the super bowl. I watched Harrison a lot as a Patriot, he was definitely getting by more on name recognition and team success than actual talent.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 15, 2011 6:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Rodney Harrison in 2007

was clearly over the hill, you are right. But in 2004 and 2005, Rodney Harrison was one of the better safeties in the league. Being from Boston, I’ve seen way more Patriots games than I wish, but Harrison was a stud when he first came to the Patriots

by galvinx10 on Dec 16, 2011 1:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Thank you.

That’s the first thing I thought when I read this.

Wanted: Franchise Quarterback

It's Great To Be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Dec 17, 2011 8:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Brian Dawkins

has been real good for real long.

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 15, 2011 3:36 PM PST reply actions  

It's a team chemistry thing. The gestalt of the whatchamacallit.

So I would be loathe (que palabra) to part with ET or Kam as part of a package for our
QBOTF. It might mess with morale too.

But if JS wants my input, I’ll give him the thumbs up on trading two firsts and two seconds for Carolina’s 2011 pick so we can tab Barkley or Griffin.

by broadbill birdwatcher on Dec 15, 2011 4:20 PM PST reply actions  

Doesn't seem to be overly impressive

Looking at a QB list over the same period is the same as staring at the best QB’s of the decade. The bad is far outweighted by the good and the great.

Plenty more journeyman safeties and league average players on this list. Some great players there obviously, but it’s Superbowl teams, which undoubtedly feature great players. As you said, it’s impossible to conceive a ranking system or evaluate how much of an impact each player made, but I think gambling on a QB is worth the risk.

by MT Olson on Dec 16, 2011 9:57 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

I'm not sure I understand where this post is going.

I don’t know if you can put a specific value on the safety position relative to other positions in terms of winning a championship. I think it’s pretty much commonly accepted that an elite QB has the power to transform a team from a stinker to a contender (See Colts, Indianapolis) but once you move past the signal caller the field gets a lot cloudier.

To sum up, and answer the question posed at the end of the post:

Having great safeties is better than having bad safeties in regards to winning a Superbowl.

I’m glad we don’t have bad safeties.

by Jason X USN on Dec 16, 2011 10:42 AM PST reply actions  

Especially when your safeties allow you to do things

defensively that other teams can’t do. Like start 6’4" corners.

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 16, 2011 10:45 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Bob Sanders meant a lot to the Colts' defense.

There are key players on both sides of the ball. Quarterback is a key position but the level of quarterback play does not always determine offensive success. Recent counter examples to the Colts are the Jets and the Rams. Different coaches also play safeties in more varied ways than quarterbacks, I think. If Carroll does indeed play safeties as defensive signal callers, than good safeties on out team would be as important as good middle linebackers to past Seattle teams, Chicago teams, etc.

Ah, hello my slow fat fingers say to Lord Humongous
-Kingdomer

by EthelGemerman on Dec 16, 2011 11:08 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm confused.

Neither the Jets or the Rams have had good offenses recently.

by MT Olson on Dec 16, 2011 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Right.

The Rams have a bad offense with a good quarterback. The Jets’ offense has certainly been good enough (not this year, of course) with a pedestrian quarterback.

Ah, hello my slow fat fingers say to Lord Humongous
-Kingdomer

by EthelGemerman on Dec 16, 2011 11:47 AM PST up reply actions  

It's interesting

The same people that tell me quarterback is the only position on the field have told me that Bradford is an excellent quarterback. I heard a sports writer in St Lous say, though, that Bradford just isn’t good at the seven step drop their OC wants him to do this year. He’s a three step drop guy and a good one.

Ah, hello my slow fat fingers say to Lord Humongous
-Kingdomer

by EthelGemerman on Dec 16, 2011 1:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Even though the Hawks have a big need for a QB

I can’t help but think back to 04-07 when we gave up 300 yds a game through the air. I love seeing an elite offense put points up but it’s less fun when the other offense looks elite as well. We are a pretty respectable team even with T-Jack, and could easily be in contention had the o-line been together longer, or stayed together at all. It’s because of the defense. I don’t think this team needs a huge leap in talent above Jackson to be mentioned as a contender. The Hawks have taken huge steps to get to where they are, and I don’t like the idea of taking a step back unless it gets us like…4 steps ahead.

by room13 on Dec 16, 2011 11:15 AM PST reply actions   3 recs

Carroll/Schneider seem to have above average scouting ability in regards to safeties,

so it would be .relatively. easy to replace Earl or Kam if we were to trade them away. I’d hate to see either of them go, however.

by bewrong on Dec 16, 2011 11:21 AM PST reply actions  

You can't really base this kind of thing on "past performance"

But if you were to do that, PC/JS have a poor (or at best questionable) track record at picking elite NFL QB’s together. So it would make even less sense to trade away a great player. :)

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 16, 2011 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Not to mention the

commonly held belief that Blaine Gabbert was number one on their draft board last year. (though I am not including this as I don’t know personally whether this is true or not)

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 16, 2011 2:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Gabbert wasn't on their board.

He was expected to go too high and wasn’t included.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 16, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions  

So

Rob Staton is a liar?

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 16, 2011 2:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Well I guess

Rob Staton’s source inside the seahawks that predicted we would get Marshawn Lynch, and take an Offensive lineman with the 25th pick. That guy’s the liar, right? Staton was just passing on the lie that Gabbert was the top QB on the ’Hawks draft board.

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 16, 2011 2:56 PM PST up reply actions  

What?

Staton never said Gabbert was on their board.

It’s understood Colin Kaepernick is the second ranked quarterback on Seattle’s board and apparently Andy Dalton is ranked at #3. The top ranked quarterback is not known. It’s important to remember that guaranteed top-ten locks Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are probably not on the board due to their likely exit point.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 16, 2011 3:11 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

He found out later the Gabbert was their no 1 draft pick:

Here.

We told you before the draft that Colin Kaepernick was the #2 quarterback on the Seahawks draft board, with Andy Dalton at #3. The top ranked quarterback was unknown prior to the draft. I’ve since discovered that Blaine Gabbert was the man in question. You may be interested to know that Cam Newton was ranked at #4 and Jake Locker as low as #6. I am not aware of who was at #5, but it’s probably safe to assume it was Christian Ponder. Ryan Mallett was never a consideration.

Don't be an idiot. If an idiot would do that, then don't do it. Muahahahaaha back on twitter

by RagingAlot on Dec 16, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

I think you got that wrong.

I believe they thought that they thought Charlie had potential, otherwise getting in a bidding war over him with AZ was stupid. Tarvaris might have been a stopgap, and he’s outperformed most people’s expectations – but I don’t know that they think he’s reached his ceiling.

Assuming we are all on the same page now regarding their thoughts on Blaine Gabbert during the draft – how much confidence do you have in these guys to draft a QB? I hated Gabbert pre-draft, and if Rob’s source is correct, who’s to say we don’t give up first and second round picks to jump to the 2nd spot and take… The guy they’ve decided to make their QBOTF. Landry Jones. (who I have similar feelings about this year as I did Gabbert last year) I bet this place would go apoplectic. :)

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 17, 2011 2:54 AM PST up reply actions  

That was an example.

I’m not saying they’ll draft Landry Jones #2 overall, but I’m just saying, who’s to say that the guy they think is the best guy is Barkley or RGIII?

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 17, 2011 3:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Hard to say.

If by “relatively easy” you mean they can draft a safety late and hope he turns into the next Chancellor, I guess it could happen, or he could be the next Mark Legree. Seems to be feast or famine for them in that fifth round. Overall there really isn’t much of a sample size to judge their ability to find safeties; Thomas was a no-brainer that was pretty hard to mess up.

by Suburban Shocker on Dec 16, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, Carroll is a secondary guy, so I'm sure that helps.

Although, so is Mora..

Wanted: Franchise Quarterback

It's Great To Be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Dec 17, 2011 8:55 AM PST up reply actions  

For an established QB yes. For a guy who has done nothing in the NFL, no way.

The “experts” have ranked this years QB class and our guys will rank them too. I’d be willing to bet they’re not the same list. Schnider will take somebody in the second or third round. The whole country will laugh and call it a “reach” or just stupid. And in two or three years we will have a pro-bowl QB winning Superbowls . GO SEAHAWKS!!!

by Richard fg7 on Dec 16, 2011 11:46 AM PST reply actions   2 recs

You can scheme a lot of players out of the play.

Kind of hard to stay away from a safety. And if a team has two top safeties on the field you’re just going to have to face them. So as far as value of being elite at that position goes I’d have to say Oh Hell Yes!

by Richard fg7 on Dec 16, 2011 12:03 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

So I missed the "How badly do you want a franchise QB?" thread.

Lots of good discussion there about not wanting to trade an established defensive player for a QB who is merely potentially good and isn’t named Andrew Luck. So let’s raise the stakes. After the Colts draft Luck, Peyton Manning is given a clean bill of health by the very best physicians in the world and he wants out. Manning is not known to be a WCO quarterback but, on the other hand, he’s Peyton Fucking Manning. Is it worth it to include a high-end safety who’s just entering his prime in that package?

by Suburban Shocker on Dec 16, 2011 1:05 PM PST reply actions  

I'll start it off with my own answer: No.

Because I would only want the team to take a shot at Manning if I thought it had all of the other pieces in place for a serious run. Unsettling a different position runs counter to that. I’d only want to trade draft picks.

by Suburban Shocker on Dec 16, 2011 1:09 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't see a trade of Manning by anyone happening.

The Colts will either have to pick up his option and pay him—meaning they’ll keep him. Or they’ll release him.

70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.

by hazbro24 on Dec 16, 2011 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Could be.

I’ve read that if they pick up Manning for next year it will cost them something like $38 million against the cap. (I think that was the number.) A “so crazy it just might work” idea for the Colts is to intentionally absorb that hit on the theory that they won’t be competitive in 2012 in any event; then, with that cap hit having been accelerated, what’s left of his deal will be more palatable to a trading partner. The other team will still have to pay the money but it will have been accelerated against the cap already. And then the Colts can get something back for him. In 2013 they will have extra picks and cap room galore.

by Suburban Shocker on Dec 16, 2011 1:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah,

but in that scenario they’d just be shelling out like 28 million for the right to trade him and maybe get a first back because of injury risk. That would be stupid, when you can sign a free agent for 28 million and get a proven player.

70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.

by hazbro24 on Dec 16, 2011 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think they have to shell out all that money,

My point is that I think the cash payment and the cap hit occur at two different times. So at least a good portion of the cash is foisted off on the other team. It does count against their cap, but that’s okay since they’re planning on sucking again in 2012 in any event. So they forgo a few free agents, and maybe have to let some old guys go — something they should think about anyway.

by Suburban Shocker on Dec 16, 2011 7:39 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I'd seriously be on the fence,

But if it happened, I wouldn’t have as big a pit of dread in my stomach as if we’d done the same for an essentially unknown quantity.

Of course, as has been stated – we better win the Super Bowl within a couple of years or the window of opportunity would be pretty much dead. There would not be much “dynasty” involved.

by Tokyo Slim on Dec 16, 2011 1:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Nah.

He’s the very definition of “pocket passer,” which this offense seems to eschew.

Wanted: Franchise Quarterback

It's Great To Be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Dec 17, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions  

I'd do that trade.

I strongly believe that a healthy Peyton Manning would make us a legitimate playoff team for the next two or three years, and we could continue the search for the QBOTF even with Manning.

by thebyron on Dec 26, 2011 7:29 PM PST up reply actions  

The position isn't what's important as much as it is the guy playing it.

If the guy is your leader on D, the QB so to speak like Polomalu is for the Steelers it’s more important because they look pretty lost without him. Baltimore is far better with Ed Reed in the game, but they’ve got Suggs and Lewis as leaders too and get by when he’s out. And now they get by when Lewis has been out.

But “the guy” can play any position on D

Since our two safties are starting to look like they are both “the guy” they are more important to the D than just good safties.

70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.

by hazbro24 on Dec 16, 2011 1:10 PM PST reply actions  

Only trade draft picks not players to move up

I would love it if PC/JS moved up to get a QB that they think will be the QBOTF, but I NOT at the expense of some of the exciting players we have now. Instead of going that route I would MUCH prefer to see us try and develop a quarterback like Portis, or even a couple of other projects out of this draft.

by Tezlin on Dec 16, 2011 2:26 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Hey pqlqi

You got a bit of a factual error in your list.

Charles Woodson (not Rod Woodson) started Super Bowl XXXVII

A fistful of brass. My sigs are always behind the times.

I'm a one man rec'n crew

by jubelthebear on Dec 16, 2011 2:52 PM PST reply actions  

whoops my fault

A fistful of brass. My sigs are always behind the times.

I'm a one man rec'n crew

by jubelthebear on Dec 16, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks for the front page bump - must be a slow posting day.

Sorry about the few grammar error and maybe a speeling error- wink – but the interface was not playing nice with IE. Table formatting was completely removed, some edits I know I made disappeared, and R Clark was left off as the second safety playing with Polamalu in the last Superbowl.

Props go out to pro-football-reference.com for all of the information I found. The website is a trove of data, though sometimes it’s like a Rude Golberg creation trying to find a certain piece of information.

As for my opinion on the safeties and DBs. My guess would be that Browner and Sherman were just shots in the dark, with the FO thinking Browner had maybe a 20% chance of making a good transition and Sherman maybe having a 30-40% chance to be an effective corner – with backup plans that both of them might be sized to play safety if things didn’t work out at CB.

I think overall Pete could not be happier with the total product put on the field the last 4 weeks given the low cost to get those 4 players. 1st rd 14th pick, 5th round, 4th round, and UDFA to build a very talented secondary that makes the expected mistakes of young and brash players. It’s telling that not many people could really bring issue with the character of USC players as a whole while PC coached there, and I think we will see some of the mistakes associated with youthful passion disappearing.

I’d love to have a secondary that is considered top third for the next 4-6 years and that maybe pulls together a few elite years in that span. At this point, I see a good recovery for WT3 and a decent edge pass rusher to complement Clemons as the only bumps in the road to the Hawks having a top 10 pass defense, and they already have a top 10 run defense.

I’d very much dislike seeing either safety being traded away, but I also understand that PC and JS have a clear vision (one that so far I like a lot, you know, like really “like” like) about how they build the team and while I might moan or groan about some trades, my guess would be that down the road, most of the time, we will all get to say “damn, that was a pretty good trade”

Smashmouth is the new sexy!

by pqlqi on Dec 16, 2011 6:43 PM PST reply actions   2 recs

I will have your head if Earl Thomas is traded away.

YOUR HEAD

Sonicsgate: A movie about how the Sonics were stolen from Seattle.

by .Bonzo on Dec 16, 2011 10:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Sorry if I accidentally removed something

The formatting was jacked up (copy/paste just SUCKS with this platform sometimes) so I had to do some magic with the html. Didn’t knowingly remove anything. I thought it was a good discussion point though, glad to see you do a fanpost. You need to do more!!

by Danny Kelly on Dec 16, 2011 10:49 PM PST up reply actions  

The list of safeties in the superbowl

Sort of says that SB teams need one outstanding safety and can pair him up with someone who is no greater than a “decent startert”

by Brunanburh on Dec 17, 2011 1:56 AM PST reply actions  

I like this comment because it made me think about it a bit more

Really, an elite safety just does wonders to cover up the mistakes of the players in front of them. No matter how good your front 7 are, and no matter how good your DBs are, it can only help to have the best safety net available – and maybe what you see with Superbowl caliber defenses is a guy capable of making plays where his teamates fail for whatever reason, which invariably happens throughout a game.

Having two guys who might make it to elite status adds redundancy into the system, something that PC clearly believes in. You can blitz ET b/c Kam is a decent deep cover safety. Kam can head hunt on crossing patterns and gamble on interceptions because some of the times he fails, ET will be there to back him up.

Smashmouth is the new sexy!

by pqlqi on Dec 17, 2011 2:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Our formula is perfect.

A ball hawk with range and an enforcer who can cover.

by Harvey Manfrengenson on Dec 17, 2011 6:57 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

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