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NFL Picks, Week 16: Jacson's Winners (In Three Sentences Or Less)

Hey guys. Rough week, eh? The worst of the season, in fact. The only way a nine-win week is palatable is knowing that everyone else in the country got the Packers and Colts games wrong too. The good news? As penance for misleading you so egregiously, I'll keep each preview to three sentences or fewer. The better news? We're still in the top 1% globally, according to ESPN, with 153 correct picks on the season.

Pigskin_pick__em_dec_21_medium

Click through to see the winners posted in 'breviated form

Star-divide

THURSDAY

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

This game does look a little different after the Houston's winning streak died on the same day that Indianapolis' 92-game losing streak also ended. The line will probably be closer than it was a week ago, but Houston still has the number one rush offense and Indy still can't stop the run. Look for Arian Foster and Ben Tate to have excellent days. THE PICK: TEXANS

SATURDAY

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Denver showed last week that they can be beaten, and soundly at that, by a well-run spread offense. The Bills run a spread offense, just not well. CJ Spiller looked great last week, but the Broncos backs will look better against Buffalo's chimeric defense. THE PICK: BRONCOS

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals

You know that feeling you have about the Seahawks right now? That nobody-thought-we'd-still-be-in-it-but-here-we-are feeling? Yeah, after winning six of their last seven, Cardinals fans have it too, and if this game were in Arizona, I'd choose them; in Cincy, however, I think the Bengals win a fairly low-scoring one. THE PICK: BENGALS

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are undefeated at home and that won't change against Cleveland. Baltimore is a team that will require home games to do much in the playoffs and beating the Browns is a key element to staving off the Steelers. I'm predicting big days for the following people: Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Ray Rice, Torrey Smith, and post-game bragadoccio from a team that just got housed by the Chargers. THE PICK: RAVENS

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee may have left their playoff hopes inside of the egg they laid in Indianapolis last Sunday, but they're still the more talented team here. The interesting thisng will be seeing if they can corral Maurice Jones-Drew just six days after giving up 161 rushing yards to Donald Brown. I don't necessarily think they do, and as the Jags late-game pass defense is softer than a newborn's cranium, the Titans should be capable of putting this away. THE PICK: TITANS

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

This is pants down the hardest game of the week to call. Remember when the Raiders had the division locked up a few weeks ago? Well, their recent self-disembowling combined with the fact that they're traveling to Kansas City to play a team that looked fantastic against the Packers last week makes this one a lot more interesting than it looked a couple of weeks ago. If the Raiders can make this a high-scoring one, I think they do it, but I think the Chiefs ground them and force Raiders fans to start changing their tune about the Carson Palmer trade. THE PICK: CHIEFS

Bonus fourth sentence (sorry): screw the Raiders for last week -- all they needed to do was not be awful for five minutes and Seattle's playoff odds would be about quadrupled.

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers

This game may be closer than originally anticipated if Charlie Batch is forced to start, but at least that would save us from having to hear the announcers gush about how tough and gritty Ben Roethlisberger is. I think Rashard Mendenhall eats real good in this one while Steven Jackson (who might be my favorite back in the league) starts to question all the little decisions that led to a career with the Rams. THE PICK: STEELERS

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

You'll hear a lot about how Tom Brady threw for 753 yards against the Dolphins in Week 1, but you'll also hear a lot about how Miami is a different team now than they were then. It's a true statement, as they've played fantastic football over the last two months and Reggie Bush has gone bonkers (406 rushing yards in last three games). That said, the 'Phins still lack anyone close to capable of slowing down the Pats' pass game. THE PICK: PATRIOTS

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins

Adrian Peterson should be back to a full workload this week and although the Redskins handed Eli Manning his worst statistical performance of the year last week, that had more to do with drops and penalties than with any great play by the 'Skins. The only way Minnesota's atrocious pass defense can hang around is if they're given a an error-prone opposing QB. Enter Rex Grossman. THE PICK: VIKINGS

New York Giants at New York Jets

I still think the Giants are a better team than the Jets, although both teams have been difficult to figure out. The saving grace for the Jets' inconsistent offense the past couple of years has been their stingy run defense. Well, that's gone now and they lack the firepower to trade blows with a team that can score four touchdowns any given night like the Giants can. THE PICK: GIANTS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

I'm predicting that Cam Newton will be on more season preview magazine covers than any other player in the NFL next year, and for good reason. On top of being a sensationally exciting player, the Panthers are starting to figure things out and will be everyone's sweetheart playoff pick next year. I say the hype train continues against the team that's playing worse than everyone else right now. THE PICK: PANTHERS

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions

I promise I'm not betting with my heart here -- I think the way Philip Rivers and Co. have been playing lately makes them a better team than Detroit -- but pleasepleasepleasepleaseprettypleaseplease beat the Lions, Norv. I'll promise all never ask you for anything else again. THE PICK: CHARGERS

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

I've said it before, the Eagles and Chargers have been doppelgangers all season and they're both finding their highest gear in Decemeber. It may be too late for both of them, but I think wins this weekend keeps playoff talk for both teams alive. The Cowboys are still a good team, but I'm expecting a great Eagles team to show up, and Dallas can't go play for play with them if they do. THE PICK: EAGLES

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

I'm really glad that the Lions game starts at the same time as the Seahawks game; nothing would be a bigger buzzkill than having the stadium scoreboard show a Detroit victory before the game in Century Link even kicked off. That stadium is going to be so freaking awesome on Sunday and I think San Fran has a tough time overcoming that. I still they will though, and it breaks my heart. THE PICK: 49ers

SUNDAY

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

My prediction for this one kind of hinges on whether the Niners win on Saturday. If they do, I say Green bay keeps the pedal pressed in order to secure home-field advantage and the Bears won't even be in shouting distance come fourth quarter time. If the Seahawks win, we may start to see Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the studs pulled early, but I'm banking on my last prediction being right and the Pack holding serve in Lambeau. THE PICK: PACKERS

MONDAY

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

What an awesome late season Monday night game! I love watching these two teams play football and I think Drew Brees is just the coolest. It's tempting to think that the defenses will just take the night off in this one, but both units have been playing much better of late and I won't be surprised to see a defensive stop decide this one. Also, prepare to see a half dozen replays of Mike Smith going for it on 4th down from his own 26 yard-line in OT the last time these two met. THE PICK: SAINTS

Consider these wins (besides that San Fran pick -- that one I hope I'm wrong on) my Christmas present to you all. I hope your holidays are the best you've ever had.

***

Jacson on Twitter

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Nice set of picks, though. The most intriguing games this week are Lions-Chargers, Giants-Jets, Falcons-Packers, and 49ers-Hawks IMO, since those could easily go either way. I do think the 49ers have a distinct advantage over us, but a combination of the CLink and the 9ers poor offense might align enough for us to get a win.

I predict our defense outscores our offense. Mostly because it’s an interesting prediction, not because I truly think it’ll happen.

I met a possum.

by s0merand0mdude on Dec 22, 2011 10:46 AM PST reply actions  

I'm not sure who's gonna win Falcons-Packers either

And for some reason I can’t find out what Vegas thinks about it.

And while I wouldn’t call the Niners’ offense “poor”, I wouldn’t be surprised if the SEA/SFO game sees fewer than 40 points. I hope you’re right about the ’Hawks defense bringing their A-game.

I've got ridiculous upside.
-
Follow @JacsonBevens

by Jacson Bevens on Dec 22, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Reasons the Seahawks will beat the 49ers Saturday:

1) Motivation: Seahawks have more to play for. Their backs are against the wall and 49ers have the luxury of a playoff guarantee. Every game from here on out is our Super Bowl.
2) Momentum: Seahawks are rolling 5-1 of their last 6 and should have won against Washington. 9ers had a big win against Pittsburgh Monday but are 2-2 in their last four and lost their last two road games.
3) Home Field: Clink is one of the toughest venues in the NFL and fans are aaamped about this game. Evening game on a holiday Saturday? I predict another earthquake.
4) Matchup: Both teams are good running teams and have good run defense but Seattle has been strong against the pass lately while SF has a questionable secondary. Seattle has been having success throwing lately. My prediction is that both teams abandon the run at some point to Seattle’s benefit.
5) Injuries: No Willis and Ginn for the 9ers. Seattle surprisingly healthy though if Baldwin doesn’t play that would hurt. Seattle has done a great job at creating a deep team and our replacements have been playing at a high level.
6) Coaching: The Carroll team has been doing much better preparing this team and not making dumb decisions. Harbaugh has been solid too so this is mostly a wash but I have been impressed with Bevel and Tom Cable and the offensive game plan.

by Cj Klocow on Dec 22, 2011 11:19 AM PST reply actions  

Look, I hope you're right

But that is a very wishful list.
1.) San Fran has every motivation in the world (tied w/ New Orleans for the second seed and first-round bye)
2.) There hasn’t been a lot of statistical evidence to prove or disprove the value of game-to-game momentum.
3.) I’m with you here, Seattle is much better at home. The CLink will bring it.
4.) San Francisco has been nothing short of spectacular against the pass.
5.) Seattle is missing it’s three most talented lineman, it’s starting two cornerbacks, it’s top two WRs, etc etc etc. Seattle far more banged up than SF.
6.) Coaching arguments are the most difficult for fans to make and while I think Carroll has done well, what do we really know about SF’s coaching other than the fact that they play extraordinarily disciplined football in all aspects?

Listen, I want to be wrong about that game, but I don’t see many advantages for Seattle besides home field.

I've got ridiculous upside.
-
Follow @JacsonBevens

by Jacson Bevens on Dec 22, 2011 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

I hear what you are saying but..

I’m an optimist. I have watched every minute of Seahawks football this year and many of the SF games too. On paper SF wins but we all know that there is more to football than stats and that is what I am trying to capture.
1) Playing for seeding and playing for your season are very different. Seattle loses, they are done. SF loses, they have to travel in the playoffs. Both motivated but one more motivated.
2) Not sure on stats for momentum (how do you even measure that?) but SF losing its last two road games indicates that they are having trouble winning on the road. In the games I have seen they don’t look as sharp as they did early in the year.
3) Yep
4) What do you mean “nothing short of spectacular”? They are 21st in the league against the pass. They just gave up over 300 yards passing to a terrible Rotheslberger. They have a decent pass rush but their DBs give a ton of cushion and rely on turnovers. You cannot run on them but you can definitely pass on them.
5) As I mention, the depth has stepped up and I don’t see much of a drop off for any of our injuries. Coming into this week the most significant injuries are on SF. They cannot replace Willis. They cannot replace Ginn. Those are key losses. Willis is the heart of that D and Ginn killed us earlier this year. I hear what you are saying but SF also has a lot of players on IR that they lost through the year as do all NFL teams at this point.
6) As I said, coaching is really a wash. I am just very impressed with what these guys have been doing to get wins with very little talent.

by Cj Klocow on Dec 22, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions  

San Francisco's yards allowed are 21st in the league

But that’s a very incomplete and simplistic way to view a defense’s efficacy. Their per-pass defense has been fantastic (opponents have the 4th lowest passer rating in the NFL and Football Outsiders lists them as the 7th best against the pass). San Francisco has spent a huge percentage of their game time in the lead and teams have passed more frequently against them than others, leading to more yardage, but much of those yards are meaningless in terms of deciding the outcome.

I've got ridiculous upside.
-
Follow @JacsonBevens

by Jacson Bevens on Dec 22, 2011 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow, you just really love defending this team huh?

This is a team that played a very soft schedule for passing teams. They faced a few good passing teams/QBs and these are the results: Dallas +400 yards, Philadelphia +400 yards, NY +300 yards, Pittsburgh +300 yards

The teams they kept under 300 yards: Cle, Ariz x2, Stl, Cinn, Sea (wk 1), Wash are nothing to get a boner about. They held Det and Bal to under 300 which is mildly impressive but they only gained around 100 passing themselves in both. Those were both drag out defensive games.

So I wouldn’t get too excited about their per game passing D.

by Cj Klocow on Dec 22, 2011 1:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, Jacson is actually a well-placed mole.

Tinker, tailor, soldier, Niner.

"The time has come," the Walrus said, "to talk of many things."

by shams on Dec 22, 2011 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

One thing...
SF loses, they have to travel in the playoffs.

SF has locked up the fact that they will play a home game first in the playoffs, since wild cards play @ division winners.

I met a possum.

by s0merand0mdude on Dec 22, 2011 1:32 PM PST up reply actions  

New Orleans remembers that rule well.

beefmo

"The time has come," the Walrus said, "to talk of many things."

by shams on Dec 22, 2011 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I will concede...

that you probably picked the niners because they actually have more talent on paper as indicated by their superior record, stats and ridiculous number of Pro Bowl votes. But in the NFL, paper don’t mean nothin!

by Cj Klocow on Dec 22, 2011 11:22 AM PST reply actions  

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