Getting "The Guy" or the QBOTF isn't easy

-What pick the Seahawks have
-What pick most teams in front of the Seahawks have
-If RG3 is even going to be in the draft
-What moves other teams are going to make in relation to finding a quarterback
-Bowl results for most prospects, combine and pro day results for all of them
-Much more

It’s way too early to speculate on what the Seahawks should or should not do in relation to this years draft. I know people here have been doing that, including myself, but a “sky is falling” stance on if the Seahawks trade up to draft a QB is a bit much. If you don’t see any scenario in which Seattle should trade up to draft a QB, that’s fine. But you can’t speculate that it will take “two entire drafts” to do so for Luck and “one and a half entire drafts” for RG3.

The sky is not falling. And even if Seattle traded 5 draft picks for a QB, I’m not sure how that would make a team with cap space and an exciting young roster, “bottom dwellers for 3-5 years”

It’s a necessary risk. Trying to plan for your franchise without a franchise QB just isn’t viable in the modern NFL. Just because a move is risky doesn’t mean avoiding that move is the best way to go. In fact, it usually is not. Really, y’know, I’m just repeating this. It’s about opportunities, and cost, and opportunity cost. Could it be that this next draft we again don’t have much of a shot at a QB of the future? Possible, I don’t really know yet, for reasons Kenneth states. Is “we shouldn’t risk it, the cost is too great” really a viable attitude to take when running a franchise over half a decade? No, it is not.

For every Cam Newton there’s a Ryan Leaf. And for ever Aaron Rodgers there’s Brady Quinn.

The draft is largely a crapshoot, Seattle cannot be scared out of it for the millionth time because obviously they aren’t terrible enough to suck their way into the top 5.

He looked impressive in preseason. He’s mobile, has a strong arm and reminds me of Jackson. I would like to see him play more (maybe this week?) to prove himself but so far I’m happy with him as our QBOTF.

Schneider loves his picks though. I still doubt a trade up will happen.

I certainly don’t subscribe to the theory that coaches and GMs are infallible, so the idea that they always know what’s best is out the window. However, my own philosophy seems very much in line with the Schnieder/Carroll agenda.

I’m not a fan of packaging picks to move up in the draft. Ever, really. That’s right. Ever.

First off, I favor going against the trends – if the NFL says run, I’d pass; if they say pass, then I run – because it allows you to gather premium talent to do what you do. Other teams have no interest in drafting an O-lineman because he’s a shitty pass-blocker, but you can pair him next to a good pass-blocking tackle and he can run-block like a tractor-trailer plowing through Smart Cars. No one wants big, physical cornerbacks because they are too slow? No one wants QBs that are smart and accurate because they’re attracted to cannon-arm and W-L record? Strategize to take the guys that the majority of teams don’t want. This is what I believe the Seahawks are doing (partially anyway).

If your team goes tits up in a season and you fetch the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th pick in a draft and someone your team has scouted and believes in is sitting there (Luck, Newton last season, or some other hard to find commodity like a Terrell Suggs, Barry Sanders, Randy Moss, or Warren Sapp, etc.) then by all means seize him. If there doesn’t seem to be value, trade down. The Jets look stupid for trading up to get Sanchez right now, and San Diego once passed on Michael Vick so they could draft Ladanlian Tomlinson and Drew Brees. Even at the time – being excited to watch Vick – I remember thinking the Chargers pulled off a coup.

Trading up sometimes nets a successful player, but it’s never mentioned who said team gave up to get them. Even if the move up is successful, there’s no way to know that the pick or picks surrendered wouldn’t have helped the team better in the long run.

The whole thing is mental masturbation to a certain degree – which is why we talk about it – and ultimately there’s not a right or wrong answer outside of winning and losing. Since every player coming out of college is an unknowable commodity, I favor the shots on goal theory. Aaaaaaand, I don’t marginalize how much good, stable coaching has to do with a series of draft picks ‘magically’ working out. If ever you doubt that, look at the job Tom Cable as done this year with our O-line.

I don’t watch a ton of college football, so I’m no expert on who – specifically – any team should draft. I have watched enough football to know that scouts draft analysts are wrong as often as they are right (I recall Mel Kiper chastising the Colts for passing on Trent Dilfer, one of many examples). If the ‘Hawks miss out on the “sure thing” QBs in the first round and draft Kellen Moore in the 4th (or something), I’ll root the choice on along with the Seahawks to win every single game that they play.