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The NFL Playoffs, and the Miracle the Seahawks Need to Get There

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Many people have the same account with near-death expereinces, they all talk about seeing the light. Well after the Seahawks own brush with playoff death, they now see the light. The biggest problem is that even one loss could crush that light and leave them in limbo until next season.

The Seahawks first have to handle their business. There are two general scenarios that are still possible for the Seahawks to get to the playoffs. The first scenario would require the Seahawks to win out and end up going 9-7.

Surprisingly, it looks like this could possibly happen, as the Seahawks would be 8-4 in the conference, and this would be the best 9-7 tie break. This beats the Lions head to head, and wins ALL three-team scenarios, except one [Falcons, Seahawks and Cowboys (assuming not division winner) all 9-7]. In essence, in this scenario, the Seahawks have already entered the win-or-go-home phase.

Monday night Seattle faces the Rams, and on prime time the Seahawks shine. It is also a home game so expect the CLink to be a top-volume, earthquake-making playoff atmosphere. After that they face the Bears, who just lost their starting QB in Jay Cutler, and now it looks like their only other weapon on offense, Matt Forte could be out as well. This looked like one of the harder games of the season, even being in Chicago, but with the two critical injuries, I dont know if the Bears have any bite left.

The 49ers game is critical to the Seahawks season. Seattle will need to win that game. Luckily for the Hawks its at home, and they play better here. Finally, they finish up in Arizona. Believe it or not, that last game has the slim chance to be a play off spot game for both teams, very similar to last year.

We had the perfect weekend for helping the Hawks get to the playoffs. The Seahawks beat the Eagles and nearly eliminated them from the playoffs. The Cowboys, Falcons, Bears, Giants, and Lions all lost.

Here is how it stands:

Star-divide

The 49ers and Packers have clinched their divisions, and thus two of the six playoff spots. The Saints haven't clinched a division yet, but in many scenarios even if they lose out they get a play off spot. That leaves three playoff spots. There are six remaining teams that can reach 9-7 or better, and 11 teams that can still get 8-8. One of those playoff spots goes to the NFC East divisional winner.

Seahawks (5-7)

Remaining games: Rams (2-10), @Bears (7-5), 49ers (10-2), @Arizona (5-7)

RSOS: 24-24 50%

The Seahawks 9-7 Scenario...

What needs to happen:

The Seahawks win out. That eliminates all possible 8-8 teams from competition for the playoff spot (though its possible Seahawks could be 5th seed and an 8-8 team could be 6th seed - Arizona, Carolina, Bucs, Eagles and Redskins).

This leaves the Cowboys, the Giants, the Bears, the Lions, the Falcons, and the Seahawks that can reach 9-7. This is where the complicated part comes in. One of the three remaining playoff spots goes to the NFC East (Giants and Cowboys still play each other twice).

That leaves six teams for three spots. The Cowboys, Bears, Giants, Falcons, Lions, & the Seahawks.

If tied (9-7), head to head we lose to the Falcons and Cowboys (assuming 9-7 and not division winner). We beat the Giants (assuming 9-7 and not division winner) and Bears. With the Lions it would go to second tie break - Hawks would be 8-4 in the conference, the Lions would, at best, be 7-5.

So, we beat Giants, Bears and Lions, and lose to Falcons and Cowboys.

If three or more teams are tied at 9-7, it would be highest conference record and Seahawks would be (8-4, Lions at best would be 7-5, The Falcons at best would be 7-5, Giants (assuming 9-7 and not division winner) at best would be 6-6, Cowboys at best would be 7-5 (assuming they are 9-7 and not division winner). The Bears could be 8-4(would include a win against the Packers).

Seahawks win all of these scenarios unless the Falcons, Cowboys, and Seahawks end up tied.

Going into week 14 here is how you should root if you want the Seahawks to get to the playoffs.

Giants @ Cowboys: You want the Cowboys to win this game. It is easier for us to win tie breaks if Dallas wins the division.

Bears @ Broncos: Seahawks need Bears to lose here, so root for the Broncos.

Vikings @ Lions: Adrian Peterson should be back, and Suh is still suspended. Cheer for AP to get the rock and the Vikes to get the win.

49ers @ Cards: If the Cards win we get more insight on how to beat the 49ers, and could mean a 49ers - Seahawks first round match up; a 49ers win means we probably face Saints.

Falcons @ Carolina: Root for Carolina, could set us up for the 5th seed.

Rams @ Seawhawks: Scream your head off for Beast Mode and a 7 sack performance from Clemons.

After this weeks game, I will go over the 8-8 scenarios and update the playoff picture.

Comment 27 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Do we want the Falcons to win or lose?

I am confused, I thought we want them to win because they have the tie breaker.

by Built2Spill on Dec 6, 2011 6:59 AM PST reply actions  

The Falcons

are more likely than not to lose their division to the saints. Meaning they are in the hunt for a wild card game. In the chance they get 9-7 and only the Hawks and Falcons , or a three way tie with Hawks and Falcons and Cowboys, then its bad. In all other scenarios the seahawks would hold the tie break victory against the falcons because of their would be 8-4 conference record.

If we lose a game there are a lot of scnarios we still make the play offs, but they get pretty complicated.

by Oliudyen on Dec 6, 2011 2:41 PM PST up reply actions  

But they're 2 games behind NO. If they take the division, NO is a more formidable wildcard opponent

for us, than ATL is. They just lost to the TJ Yates Texans, have scored the fewest points (other than us) of the remaining WC contenders, and so they’re the best candidate to falter & drop out of the WC race. That they own a tie breaker against us, while NYG, DET & CHI do not, makes it more desirable for us as well.

They don’t have a tough schedule remaining. Probable loss to the Saints, a guaranteed win over the Jags, then face CAR & TB who they’ll probably both beat. Not looking good for us getting in over them.

Beside them is a different & more complex situation.

Head of catering.

by jacobstevens on Dec 6, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

The loser of the NFC East

Is guaranteed to have at least 7 losses since the Cowboys and Giants play each other twice before the end of the season. So that is good news.

by bigtrain21 on Dec 7, 2011 10:39 AM PST reply actions  

Love this post, and thanks for doing it.

When a season is comprised of a 16 game sample, the week-to-week mood shifts are gigantic. I remember how the playoff movement was starting to build going into the Redskins game, and how it was supposedly squashed when they blew that 4th quarter lead. Now it’s back.

Hope is a good thing.

I've got ridiculous upside.
-
Follow @JacsonBevens

by Jacson Bevens on Dec 7, 2011 11:40 AM PST reply actions  

You.

Stop reminding me about reality and crap like that. Let me have my dreams.

(I’d swear NFL fans get bipolar or something right around the end of the pre-season. Pretty sure this is bad for my heart)

Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence lies in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.
-Sun Tzu-

by chin64 on Dec 7, 2011 12:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm right there with you.

There was no sarcasm at all.. It’s fun to have playoff dreams in (no matter how unlikely) as late as Week 14.

I've got ridiculous upside.
-
Follow @JacsonBevens

by Jacson Bevens on Dec 7, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions  

"Maybe the best of things."

Eternally looking forward to someone making a Seahawks song based off of Lil' Jon's "Shots" song named "Hawks!"

by Bobby Cink on Dec 7, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

I figured you would get it.

Eternally looking forward to someone making a Seahawks song based off of Lil' Jon's "Shots" song named "Hawks!"

by Bobby Cink on Dec 7, 2011 2:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Cold and calculating

you’re the next Batman, I tell you.

Heresy grows from idleness.

by Corax --Nevermore-- on Dec 7, 2011 9:17 PM PST up reply actions  

One nice thing

Is that there’s substantial overlap between “rooting for draft position” and “rooting for the playoffs.” The same games need to go the same way for the Seahawks. It’s nice.

by robbbbbb on Dec 7, 2011 3:29 PM PST reply actions  

Offensive injuries have ended my faith in the "make the play-offs" scenario

Which means fretting incessantly over the avoidable losses to the Browns and Redskins

by Brunanburh on Dec 7, 2011 3:40 PM PST reply actions  

I prefer to think we didn't lose to the Browns

we lost to a game deciding shitty call by a ref.

Not that it detracts from your point of course, it still amazes me (in the good way) how competitive this team is in most of it’s games.

by Raphaelas on Dec 7, 2011 7:07 PM PST up reply actions  

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