2011 NFL Draft: History says the Seahawks should pick a Cornerback over a Defensive End at #25.
by NickEwing on Feb 6, 2011 7:22 AM PST
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PrintLast week I wrote about how I think the Seahawks, if they decide to use the #25 selection to pick a cornerback, should pick University of Miami's Brandon Harris. Now Colorado's Jimmy Smith has shot up many draft boards over the past week and might be the better player. I would be happy with either selection.
Then I started thinking about another need for the Seahawks defense, the defensive end position. With Raheem Brock, who will be 33 this year, on the free agent market this might be a good time to find a younger replacement. Will it be easier to find talent at DE or CB toward the bottom half of the first round? Let's look at DE's and CB's selected 17-32 overall during the past ten years.
At the CB position, six of the 10 draft classes produce a Pro Bowler from picks 17-32. That's an astonishing 60% of the time!
By comparison, picks 1-16 during that same period produced five draft classes with Pro Bowler's at DE and five draft classes with Pro Bowler's at CB, a 50% conversion. It seems crazy but over the last 10 NFL Draft classes the bottom half of the first round was more likely to produce a Pro Bowl cornerback than the top half of the round on any given year, just barely.
Obviously it's difficult to draw many, if any, conclusions off of this limited data but one thing it tells me is that it is more likely to find a top CB at pick #25 than a DE. While obviously many other factors may contribute to those statistics, I think the conclusion rings true. Just look at the Hawks for example.
The Hawks picked Kelly Jennings from Miami #31 overall in the 2006 draft and, while I'm no fan of Jennings as evidenced by my belief we need to draft his replacement as our top priority, at least he has given us four solid years this far. By contrast, Seattle picked DE Lawrence Jackson from USC #28 overall in the 2008 draft and he currently plays for Detroit, the Hawks having traded him away for a sixth round pick. It's not good when a 1st round pick is traded away two years later for a 6th round pick.
As we look at the most recent projections from Scouts Inc, for the 2011 draft it appears there will unfortunately be many more DE's available to Seattle than CB's this year. All three CB's rated as 1st rounders are projected as top 10 athletes and are unlikely to be available at #25 (Patrick Peterson of LSU, Prince Amukamara of NEB, and Jimmy Smith of COL). Brandon Harris should still be on the board at #25.
There are an astounding nine DE's ranked in the top 32 athletes, including seven between 15 and 30 (Adrian Clayborn of IA, Aldon Smith of MIS, Cameron Jordan of CAL, Muhammad Wilkerson of TEMP, JJ Watt of WISC, Ryan Kerrigan of PUR, and Cameron Heyward of OHIO ST). With Seattle picking at #25 the reality is that it will be hard for the Hawks to avoid a DE.
I admit I probably have a bias towards the defensive side of the ball. I hope the Hawks use the #25 pick for defense, specifically the CB position. As I mentioned last week, in 2010 the Hawks pass defense was one of the worst in the league, #27 actually, despite having 11 of 16 games against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in passing. I believe either Brandon Harris or Jimmy Smith could walk right into the starting eleven and have a big impact in 2011.
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I'm a fan of using years started as a measure to evaluate draft picks
but Jennings and LoJack are perfect examples of why it’s not a perfect method. Jennings has not been solid just because he’s started and it’s not LoJacks fault that the Q/PM gave up on him too quickly.
As for why corners taken in the bottom half of the draft are more successful than ends taken there, I’d guess it’s because ends go off the board faster. So at 25 you might be taking the second or third corner or the ~fourth end most years.
by Nate Dogg on Feb 6, 2011 9:01 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Good call
plus perhaps DE has more studs like Mario Williams or Julius Peppers stealing the Pro Bowl nominations every year, maybe cornerback is more open, maybe less dominant corners??
I also think it relates to the fact that "targets" are involved for corners....
whereas a DE has the opportunity to be in virtually every play (making the CB position far more volatile to measure results).
LJ
Jackson only had 6.5 sacks in 2 full years for the Hawks. He looked much better for the Lions this year, maybe we did give up too soon.
As has been pointed out before
LoJack was also a situational pass rusher on a much better d-line. Any DE is going to look better with Ndamukong Suh next to them rather than Craig Terrill, Colin Cole, or Junior Savii.
SomaFM got me through college.
by Wayward Llama on Feb 6, 2011 12:16 PM PST up reply actions
Ends do go off the board faster, but they're not necessarily more successful or productive. In fact, I believe statistics bear out that DE's drafted in teh first round are bigger crapshoots than DE's taken in the 2nd or later.
Covets: Mark Ingram, Marcell Dareus, Prince Amukamara, Rodney Hudson, and Owen Marecic.
by Carl Shinyama on Feb 7, 2011 8:10 AM PST up reply actions
That's kind of a bad poll
Because you aren’t giving your readers any chance to make an informed decison based on article. All you ask is whether teams should consider the idea, which everyone will undoubtedly agree with because it’s logical to want their team to consider all possible options when drafting.
Ask what position people believe the Seahawks should draft after reading the article. Your conclusions clearly point to CB. See if people agree with your logic or have a rational rebuttal to your arguments.
Tough to say
But would probably move on to CB.
by Scruffy Lefty on Feb 7, 2011 7:40 AM PST up reply actions
Seriously.
Can’t lose going BPA this year. We could upgrade at any given position except kick returner.
SomaFM got me through college.
by Wayward Llama on Feb 6, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
I thought that too
but then I realized that if that were true, why are so many pro bowl CB being picked later in the first round as opposed to earlier? It’s confusing.
My guess would be that corners are easier to find in other rounds.
For example a 3rd-round Corner can still come in and start with significant frequency, but it’s harder to rely on a 3rd-round QB, WR, DL, or OL which typically flood the early stages of round 1.
Hasseldone.
So Nick you and I seem to agree that Corner is a place we need to fix.
In previous post I have mentioned that Brandon Harris is the right guy to go with. Now watching more film on Smith I am on the fence between the two for he may fit our scheme better. I was wondering your opinion and the rest of the FG’s thoughts on which corner we should draft and why if we go with one at 25th.
"I was 11 or 12 and Quinton was like 30. He was the only dude on the Pop Warner team who had a full mustache and a beard. And he used to drive to Pop Warner games. You're not supposed to be doing that. It was crazy." -Marshawn Lynch
I shouldn't say "fix" because Thurmond III isn't a write off by anymeans...
"I was 11 or 12 and Quinton was like 30. He was the only dude on the Pop Warner team who had a full mustache and a beard. And he used to drive to Pop Warner games. You're not supposed to be doing that. It was crazy." -Marshawn Lynch
Hmmmm
i need to do some more research on Smith, his stock is going up but he didn’t even play in the senior bowl right? I like Brandon Harris because I think he is a better tackler than Smith/Aaron Williams from what I’ve seen and read. Smith is shooting up everyones board because McShay is high on him but I don’t like that he chose to sit out the senior bowl. I never heard if there was a legit reason why he did.
interesting i didn't know that.
Tackling and a corner that can help run stop is big so Harris still may take the cake.
"I was 11 or 12 and Quinton was like 30. He was the only dude on the Pop Warner team who had a full mustache and a beard. And he used to drive to Pop Warner games. You're not supposed to be doing that. It was crazy." -Marshawn Lynch
Due to the deep class of top DEs and CBs, along with the QB situation...
…where teams will reach and overdraft the postion, Seattle is in a historically unique position to draft their franchise RT at 25. Doing so would immediately solidify the starting tackle position for years, and provide quality back-up for Okung.
At that point, there might only be one, perhaps two tackles taken by 25, leaving Seattle with possibly their top choice at the position.
Sure, if Seattle drafted at 8, then taking the 2nd (perhaps top rated) CB would be easy. But in some mock drafts I have seen, Harris is already off the board, as is Smith. That leaves Seattle considering taking the 5th CB in the class (not sure who that would be).
Rang has Seattle taking Pouncy, a guard, because of the weakness of the interior line. My thinking is that quality guards can be taken outside the first, whereas replacing the RT not so easy after 25. Also, FA may bring in the guards needed.
For example, Tyron Smith (who may end up the top ranked OT once the draft begins):
Position: OT
School & Year/Status: USC – Junior
Jersey Number: #70
Height & Weight: 6’5 – 280 lbs.
Ranked #30 on our Top 100 Prospects Board
2011 NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report:
person
Tyron Smith, OT, USC
After spending two years at right tackle, Tyron Smith was expected to move to the left side for his junior campaign. However, it did not work out that way and the USC lineman is still on the right side. That is the stronger side of USC’s line, but a lack of experience at left tackle may have a small negative effect on his draft status. Smith was a backup as a true freshman in 2008 before moving into the starting role the following season. He started every game until the Emerald Bowl match-up with Boston College, which he missed for academic reasons.
In 2010 Smith has continued to build upon his success and has done a fine job protecting quarterback Matt Barkley and paving the way for a solid running game. Once again Smith should receive plenty of accolades by the end of the season.
What makes Smith special is his athleticism. At 6-5 and 280 pounds, he is surprisingly quick and nimble. Yet, he does not lack in strength. He may sound a little small at 280 pounds, but Smith is an athlete who has all the strength he needs. Smith just seems like he should be a left tackle and he probably will be in the NFL. Scouts will fall in love with his athletic ability and he will blow away most other linemen at the NFL combine. That could make him a first round selection if he opts to go pro early.
by Hawksince77 on Feb 7, 2011 7:18 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Smith
If he bulked up and maintained his agility he would be the perfect pick in my opinion.
I think a 'Franchise Right Tackle' can be found later than round one.
Successful RTs are sometimes found in the middle rounds. For example, Ryan Harris and Marshal Yanda are quality starting RTs both drafted in the 3rd round (2007).
How often do you find a successful QB prospect outside of round one? I think we have to weigh the draft and get the most value at our picks. We have enough holes in our roster to go BPA in every round, save for LT and FS and even then a quality FS or LT could be our SS or RT, as well.
Hasseldone.
I agree that the best value (BPA) should be choice number one.
What I am arguing is that based on how I see the draft falling out right now, the best value for pick 25 may be a tackle, and because few tackles will be taken very high this year, an ELITE right tackle may be available, making that pick more valuable than say, a QB that has a questionable future in the NFL (my take on any QB likely to be on the board at 25).
If I am wrong, and PC/S really like one of the QB/CB/DE/DTs that fall to 25, then sure, that could be the pick. Just not sure that is how it will play out, based on an early view of the draft.
What is so sweet is that several of the top tackles play mostly on the right, for whatever reason, reducing their value in the draft. And while quality players can be had in any round, at any position, the odds are much better when you can pick the top guy based on your own evaluation, as opposed to settling somewhere later in the draft.
Finally, I am convinced that significantly improving the o-line will bring the most benefits for this particular team (aside from QB – a position I don’t believe the Seahawks can address in the draft). They are solid at TE, RB and WR on the offensive side of the ball, and putting together a top 10 offensive line (possible if that is PC’s priority) will siginficantly improve play from the entire team.
Last year at this time the task seemed impossible (and I guess it was). This year there is the possibility of significantly improving the team with a good draft and a few key FA aquisitions (Asomgha [sp], Jackson/Floyd/Rice/Edwards, Gallery…)
Offensive Line
While i’m not sure this is as pressing of a need with the hiring of tom cable, if a top tier right tackle/ elite offensive lineman is available i think we should take him. a pick like Mike Pouncey could go a long way for the hawks shoring the line up providing dpth at multiple positions. I also have read that this class is pretty rich with DB’s so perhaps taking a curtis brown, or Ras-I Dowling in the second would be better for the squad. However i just hope we dont blow it on Jake Locker
All things being equal, OL
My thinking is that OL is the position that takes the longest to gel, and has the longest career expectancy. CB and DE are positions where (relatively speaking) youth can contribute right away.
I’m leery of getting a QB in the first round, because the only thing worse than not having a franchise QB is investing in one and having him not pan out.
My opinion on the state of the Hawks is that while this team may compete for playoff spots, and may make an occasional run, to be a perennial contender, it must continue to rebuild. Don’t try to cut corners. I’d rather go 6-9 for a few years if it means we can build the kind of team that will consistently challenge the elite.
I’m not the kind of fan who will root for losses, so of course I’ll enjoy any overachieving success obtained during the process. :)
After watching the SB, I’m most saddened by the state of our LBs. All of our LBs except Curry are small, light, yet slow. And while Lofa, Heater, Herring, and Hill have their moments, by the time this team is ready to compete, they will likely have slipped further.
It would be interesting to see
how the number of DEs and CBs taken in each part of the round affects the outcome. Are there years where there were 0 taken in the top or bottom half? Maybe 1 CB in the top half and 5 in the bottom half? Vice versa? Looking at that, plus accounting for average years started, would probably make this metric that much more valuable for projecting this year.
i want a bpa
and im hoping its a huge, fast, relentless, God fearing defensive tackle.
BPA
and I’d be quite happy with Carimi or Smith at RT, Smith or Harris at CB, etc… and it will be fun to see how it shakes out. Can’t wait for the draft. My dream draft as of now (which changes weekly it seems) is as follows:
25 Carimi OT Wisconsin
57 Nevis DT LSU
98 Dalton QB TCU
4th round comp for Burlison, Romeus DE Pitt
153 Brown CB Colorado
154 Carter RB Syracuse
173 Little WR N. Carolina
198 Chinasa DE Oklahoma St.
And I hope we pry Gallery away from Oakland in FA.
I say we don't go after either
I want a LG or C and a RT in the first 2 rounds and wouldn’t take a DE in the whole draft unless by some miracle this kid fell into my lap in say the 4th round.
http://www.nfldraftbible.com/Players/List/2011-Big-Board/Dontay-Moch.html
I’d then trade Clemmons for what should be great value after last year, move Curry to DE and Moch to OLB, or Moch OLB Curry OLB and move Hawthorn to middle and get value if any for Tutupu which isn’t likely with his injuries and bloated contract, and then cut him.
I want us to get Bowers even more than Harris or a QB now.
"I was 11 or 12 and Quinton was like 30. He was the only dude on the Pop Warner team who had a full mustache and a beard. And he used to drive to Pop Warner games. You're not supposed to be doing that. It was crazy." -Marshawn Lynch
to get a bowers type guy*
"I was 11 or 12 and Quinton was like 30. He was the only dude on the Pop Warner team who had a full mustache and a beard. And he used to drive to Pop Warner games. You're not supposed to be doing that. It was crazy." -Marshawn Lynch
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