Kevin Kolb and QB stats

by Johnny Slick on Jul 28, 2011 9:24 PM PDT

I'm seeing a LOT of citations of QB rating lately. Guys, look. I get that it's one number you can look at to get an idea of a player's passing ability. I like that aspect of it, don't get me wrong. The problem with it is that it sucks. It WAY overrates TD rating, which is more of a function of how bad a team's red zone offense is (in that if it sucks, the QB is forced to throw more TD passes) and how good their overall offense is (which a QB certainly contributes to, but in ways mostly covered in gaining yards). It also basically double-counts completion percentage in that a guy who completes a lot of passes will also have good yards-per-pass numbers (whereas a 1970s Kenny Stabler type could complete 50% of his passes and still be effective if all the completions are for 20 yards) (what made the Snake subpar in modern terms was his MASSIVELY high pick percentage).

On top of that - and this has been mentioned - it doesn't include sacks at all. Contrary to popular belief, sacks don't just happen to a QB. A guy like Matt Hasselbeck will often eat the ball instead of forcing it into traffic. Going back a few years, a guy like Brad Johnson got sacked a ton because he didn't check down terribly well. Dan Marino OTOH had some *very* iffy lines but still managed to post INSANELY low sack totals because he had a superhero level quick release. If Captain America had a release that quick, comic book fans would have complained he was unrealistic.

That's why I prefer Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which is listed in profootballref and is, well, pretty awesome. It's yards per catch, with picks counting -45 yards (the seminal football stats book The Hidden Game of Football figured out this was how much a turnover costs), TDs counting an extra 20 yards (which IMO is probably overrating them but hey, it is harder to complete a 2 yard TD pass to your 3rd string TE than it is to complete a 3rd and long pass to your FB for 2 yards, so they should be worth something), *and* bring sacks into the equation as well. Sacks are actually in there in two ways (not double-counted) - they're there both as failed pass attempts (which they are) and for the negative yards (which they are). It's everything QB Rating wishes it was and more.

I rag on Kolb below the break.

Kolb's ANYA? 4.5 That is ANYA-ese for "sucks". With that exact same squad, Michael Vick's ANYA was 7.3. That by the way was only 5th; Vick's MVP credentials, of course, were built up due to the combination of his running and passing abilities, but purely as a QB he was the 5th best QB by the metric last season. The guys who were better than him were guys you expect: Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Rofflesberger. Kolb's 4.5 ANYA would have been tied with the great Derek Anderson for 2nd worst in the NFL. Only Jimmy Clausen of the Panthers was worse. Bret Favre was (slightly) better with a 4.6. Hasselbeck "earned" a 4.9.

Now don't get me wrong, it's still better than Whitehurst's 3.8 or Tavaris Jackson's 2.8, but look... when the guy to get is a 4.5 and he's going to cost you a 2nd and a good young player... you can find someone better. Like Chad Henne or Tyler Thigpen, one of whom could easily be a FA come the end of August (4.9s each). Or Jon Kitna, who went from holding a clipboard in 2009 to posting a 6.0 last year. 4.5 is pretty damn close to replacement level if you ask me.

And by the by, that 4.5 is also Kolb's career ANYA. As awesome as he was in a couple starts in 2009, he was crap in garbage time his first two years. Maybe he's better now than then, but it's equally likely that he simply wasn't as good as people thought he was as a fill-in in '09. The biggest sample size we have, the closest thing which we can use which approximates his real value, shows him as a 4.5 ANYA player on an offense where another QB was far, far better. Playing that same game with Jackson gives you a 5.0 career ANYA - not great, but my point is that it doesn't have to be great to beat Kolb.

We can keep playing this game! Derek Anderson, whom I think everyone can agree sucks, has posted ANYAs of 4.5, 2.2, and 4.5 over the past 3 years. His career mark, which includes his one awesome season of 2007, is 4.8. Trent Dilfer, whom I don't think anyone remembers as a great QB, had a career mark of 4.4 (5.4 in Seattle, though, 9.2 in Tampa, and 6.5 in Cleveland). Alex Smith has a career 4.4, with a 5.6 last season. Sam Bradford's grossly overrated checkdowny rookie year got him a 4.7. Jon Friesz was a 5.0 for his career (4.5 during his crap stint in San Diego though). Kordell Stewart had a career 4.5. KORDELL STEWART, PEOPLE.

Bottom line, even if Kolb suddenly turns into an NFL-caliber starting QB, this was a horrendous move by the Cards. If he performs at a similar level to Derek Anderson, fans will probably call it a disappointment... but really, that's probably his 50th percentile.

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I'm glad that the conclusion of this story was that Kolb blows.

Very well executed argument.

by lmeyer40 on Jul 28, 2011 9:40 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Too few starts...

But the fact that Phily has always wanted to trade him rather then make him their franchise guy says a lot.

And I don’t buy the Vick’s amazingly better angle. They were shopping him long before Vick.

by B.B.Finnegan on Jul 28, 2011 10:48 PM PDT reply actions

Well, I say that you can really only be so much better than a guy if the other guy is even average.

Which I don’t think Kolb is TBH. I agree that the sample is low, but unless you cherry-pick, he screams replacement.

by Johnny Slick on Jul 28, 2011 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Wait, really?

Wow, I totally misremembered that. I had thought that Kolb was intended to be their franchise guy when they traded McNabb, and that Vick’s superhuman comeback was just a pleasant surprise.

by thebyron on Jul 29, 2011 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions

They were shopping him and McNabb before the trade.

I seem to remember a whole 2010 offseason of “will seahawks trade for Kolb?” speculation. And if Kolb was intended as a franchise guy they’d have locked him up for years, not signed him to a 2 year deal, but it makes sense if you want to keep the rights to him and then wait it out and trade him when you get a good deal. Which they just did.

by B.B.Finnegan on Jul 29, 2011 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions

The 2009 edition of Jack Z resides in Philly, I think.

“Hi, here is some crap. Would you like to give us a good cornerback and your 2nd round pick for him? You would? And you want to lock him into a $60M contract as well? Well, great! We have a no return policy, though.”

by Johnny Slick on Jul 29, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I don't understand that argument

The reason the Eagles decided to trade him was that they already have Michael Vick. And no, they weren’t shopping him way before they had Michael Vick. In fact, if I remember correctly, Andy Reid made Kevin Kolb the starter at the beginning of last season. Guess what? A concussion took him out of the first game of the season. Then, Michael Vick came in, and played like, well, Michael Vick.

You know why they’re shopping him? Because they already have Michael Vick as their starter, and Kevin Kolb wants to be a starter (Which he will be now). They either could trade him for something, or lose him next season for nothing.

by Skii on Jul 31, 2011 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually I believe that you are mistaken, or just didn't know it at the time

The year before last the Eagles were shopping McNabb and Kolb. When they realized that they couldn’t get the premium that they wanted for Kolb, based on his great two game performance, they started shopping McNabb heavier. I completely believe that Ried understands what his system and the amazing talents around Kolb were doing for his numbers and he wanted to get as much value as possible for him. They could throw Kafka in there right now and they would be decent.

by stufr on Aug 1, 2011 4:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Which would be a truly Kafka-esque move.

[/hipster]

by Johnny Slick on Aug 1, 2011 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions

Elias' QB rating has a lot of problems.

A good QB rating can be faked pretty easily. You really cannot fake a good ANY/A. When that is high, the QB is good, there’s really no getting around that for the most part.

ANY/A keeps checkdown artists from getting too high, and keeps vertical throwers who suffer accuracy from getting too high, too. So that’s why I like it. It doesn’t favor a particular system.

Although sometimes high percentage systems don’t seem to be rewarded by ANY/A as much as the production would seem to warrant. High percentage systems can be effective. Favre had some effective Holmgren & Sherman years in the low 6s. And it wasn’t because of INTs. Montana, too. But, Young didn’t seem to be un-rewarded, and Brady’s non-Moss years with Welker were bonkers and ANY/A reflects bonkers. So my intuition may be off, but either way I have a lot of confidence in ANY/A.

But Dilfer’s 9.2 with Tampa is a typo. He had 4.4 career with Tampa.

Head of catering.

by jacobstevens on Jul 29, 2011 11:14 AM PDT reply actions

I like this. Actual fact to back up what I was trying to argue

He may be better than what we have, marginally, but he isn’t anywhere close to what they paid for him.

by stufr on Jul 30, 2011 5:49 AM PDT reply actions

umm....if you use ANYA to say Kolb sucks

you can’t use ANYA to say he is marginally better than Jackson, ‘cuz by ANYA, he ain’t

Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.

by blacknoiseNW on Jul 30, 2011 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions

by that I mean career ANYA, given that neither Kolb nor Jackson had enough starts for any metric to mean anything, last year

Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.

by blacknoiseNW on Jul 30, 2011 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Actually if you are going to use ANYA alone you would have to say that TJ is better

I left if at Kolb based on what may learned people from this sight have seen on tape.

Career TJ has is a 5.0 with a 4.7 when he started 12 games in 07. He was better in his five starts in 08 with a 6.4. Last year was his worst with a 2.8 in one start, but that is such a small sample I’m not worried about it.

Kolb, has a career number of 4.5 with a 4.5 when he started five games last year and 6.7 in the two games he started in 09. That 09 time is when he raised his reputation up to where it is now.

So I stand by what I said. ANYA says that TJ is better, but I will defer to Vasilli and others who have watched more tape than I have for a full scouting.

by stufr on Jul 30, 2011 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions

That first setence is painful

should read:
I left Kolb as better based on what many learned people, from this site, have seen on tape.

Weirdly enough I have a Bachelor’s, a Master’s and what I will call a second pseudo Master’s yet I have only one English class post HS. At times I think that I may be functionally illiterate.

by stufr on Jul 30, 2011 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions

funny, I have a Bach. in Science and two M.S., with one English class post high school

I used to think I was unique. Thanks for taking that away from me.

Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.

by blacknoiseNW on Jul 31, 2011 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

You aren't missing much.

I have a BA in English. Mostly, you just talk about Freud.

by Johnny Slick on Jul 31, 2011 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

"Bottom line, even if Kolb suddenly turns into an NFL-caliber starting QB, this was a horrendous move by the Cards."

That doesn’t even make sense.

And it’s not like QB rating is showing Kolb to be some stud. He ranks about the same last year regardless of if you use QB rating or ANYA.

by ChavaC on Jul 30, 2011 1:20 PM PDT reply actions

I am pretty sure he meant

Bottom line, unless Kolb suddenly turns

by wadswerth on Jul 30, 2011 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Makes sense to me

Based on the available evidence, Arizona has made a bad decision. It doesn’t matter if Kolb is a future hall of famer. Right now, based on the available evidence, a reasonable person would predict he’ll probably be an average quarterback after some development. Possible futures have nothing to do with whether or not you’re making a good decision in the present.

by EthelGemerman on Jul 30, 2011 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions

My point was that since football players are people, they are not 100% predictable.

It is entirely within the realm of possibility that Kolb has something suddenly “click” in his skillset which makes him an above replacement level player, the football equivalent of Jose Bautista, if you will. That doesn’t make this a good move for the Cardinals. The sample size may be small, but in the best set of stats that we have, playing with teammates who seem perfectly able to make a teammate into one of the top 5 QBs in the league, Kolb looks replacement level.

by Johnny Slick on Jul 30, 2011 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Over the past two years...

Kolb has played 7 games with more than 15 pa. In three of those games he posted ANYAs of 8.8, 10.8 and 11.8 (Tom Brady led the NFL in ANYA this year with an average of 8.2). He has only posted a lower ANYA than the week before once, last year against Titans, a game in which DeSean Jackson sat out and he was still asked to throw 48 passes.

To write him off as being a replacement player based on a career ANYA mark of trivial sample size seems a bit hasty. He has shown the ability to be very good, despite never actually being “the guy” in Phili. I am personally not a Kolb fan. That’s not because I think his upside is replacement level barring a Jose Bautista epiphany, but because there was too little sample size to justify the risk. He could go to Arizona and be the next Drew Brees/Matt Schaub acquisition, or he could post the same numbers he has over his short career so far. Either way the Cardinals will instantly compete again in the NFC West (without a Skelton or Hall throwing games away), and Kolb has enough upside for them to make a run should he pan out.

by ChavaC on Jul 30, 2011 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions

If you only look at good starts/appearances by just about everyone in the league, they will look better than they currently do.

I don’t see any particular reason why you’d do that in Kolb’s case. Tracking the hits and ignoring the misses is called confirmation bias.

by Johnny Slick on Jul 31, 2011 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions

My intention wasn't to cherrypick Kolb's highlights

I was merely trying to add balance to the article’s attempt to oversimplify Kolb into a single number that “sucks”. Anyone who has seen him play or taken a cursory glance at his game logs can tell you he has potential, and it’s not a coincidence that GMs have been burning up the Eagle’s phone lines for the last two off seasons. I would call trading two firsts for Kolb a horrendous move (as it would be for almost any player), but a second and a CB who’s already in the HC’s doghouse? In my opinion that’s mediocre at worst.

I personally don’t mind these summary metrics for quick reference of level of play, but they tend to become a problem when they’re used in a vacuum without actually evaluating the player.

by ChavaC on Jul 31, 2011 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions