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Aaron Curry and Expectations, Part II

The value of a 4-3 outside linebacker...

Not all positions are created equal. All people have the same intrinsic value. But in the game of life and the game of football, you get assigned an economic value and some sort of positional rank value in your company / career / industry.

It's a passing league. The modern (current) NFL is about passing. This aint the day of Shaun Alexander and Ladanian Tomlinson. Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson are overshadowed by quarterbacks. The run game is just a step on the ladder for a bad team trying to become a Super Bowl Team. Being a really good running team gets you to 8-8 or 9-7. 2010 Raiders. Jacksonville with Maurice Jones-Drew. Titans in 2009. 2009 Jets got a freebie game to get them into the playoffs. It's a passing league, no matter what Pete Carroll says. Pete Carroll knows it. He just wants to get a running game up and going as a necessary step toward getting toward a Super Bowl.

At least I am pretty sure and hope he knows that. The best two running games in the NFL last year were the Chiefs and Raiders. When you run into Pittsburgh or Baltimore in the playoffs, you aint gonna run on them, you better be able to throw.

It's about throwing the ball. The risk-reward ratio of passing makes it worth it. The rules favor it. The league glorifies it. All the big money positions revolve around it. It's about throwing the ball and it's all about the QB. It's about protecting the man throwing the ball: the LEFT TACKLE.

It's about destroying the QB trying to destroy you: the DEFENSIVE END in a 4-3 or the OLB in a 3-4. Its about WIDE RECEIVERS who catch the pass- and CORNERS who defend the pass. Now, its about SAFETIES who can defend the PASS.

The SAM or WILL linebacker does not consistently rush the passer. They are there to contain and/or tackle the running back. They are there to defend short passes in the short zones or follow TE and RB in the flat. How could we expect Aaron Curry to get 10 sacks? Outside LBs in a 4-3 don't get 10 sacks. Usually, anyway.

Star-divide

FRESH START
I don't know if Curry can play OLB in the fourteen to fifteen or so 3-4 defenses in the NFL. Maybe he can play inside in a 3-4. I have no idea. I know that he can contain on run plays. I know that from the naked eye he does not look super impressive in coverage. He does not get a ton of sacks.

I don't even know if the scheme is set up for him to get a lot of tackles as much as redirect toward the Mike and Will. He is a starter level SAM 4-3 Linebacker. That is what he is. Despite the amazing measurables and college tape, that's what he is. I hope I am wrong. I hope that a lightbulb goes on, but I think he is giving it everything he has, and this is what he is.

His supporters in the front office have all left. Ruskell is gone. Mora is gone. Ken Norton has given him his best stuff but PCJS keep on churning the roster relentlessly. Lofa is gone. His best friend on the team is Deon Butler, and his future is in doubt.

Leroy Hill is back, but the expectations on that one-time franchise player took him on a two year detour, he is back on a one year deal. Next to Curry is David Hawthorne, an undrafted player who came to Seattle with ZERO expectations. David Vobora and K.J. Wright and Malcolm Smith and the ghost of Ben Leber are nipping at Aaron's heels. PCJS are leveraging the roster to cover themselves for his exit.

I really hope he plays lights out in 2011. Something tells me he will play about the same as in 2009 and 2010, or maybe a bit better. I hope he makes the Pro Bowl and his biggest supporters tell me to eat a CROW-FEAST. I would bring a bib.

But I think in 2011 he is gonna blow some coverage assignments. He is gonna get some pressure in pass rush but not a ton of sacks. He is not gonna wrap up sometimes. He is gonna over-pursue sometimes. He may jump offsides a few times. He is gonna do some good things and make some plays. Get a pick or two. Get a forced fumble or two. Get a sack or two. Make some nice tackles. And the Seattle media and fans will get on his back on Monday.

I think Aaron needs a fresh start. Maybe this new restructured contract is a mini-fresh start. That would be great. I think Aaron will play in the NFL for a while. I don't think it is in Seattle. I don't think his next contract is going to be big. But that could be a good thing for Aaron. The only way I see Seattle working is a meeting in the middle. Aaron has to step his game up a bit and we have to bring our #4 pick expectations down. I am not saying we do not demand excellence. We have to demand excellence but also realize what his true ceiling is, and not demand something that was maybe never there.

I think Pete Carroll will take it as a personal challenge to demand excellence and instill confidence even though the clock is ticking with Aaron. He has a year. He is not going to inflate expectations. He is going to deflect and deflate expectations and behind the scenes make it easy for Aaron to succeed and build his confidence. It may or may not work. Pete has resurrected careers before. Mike Williams was a high pick. Expectations were high in Detroit but ZERO in Seattle. Dominique Byrd looks like he will make the 53. Red Bryant got his career boosted. Maybe Pete can do it one more time?

POSTSCRIPT:

I wrote this article a few days ago. Since writing the article it has been suggested by various reputable Seattle beat writers that 2011 will be Aaron Curry's last year in Seattle. It has even been so far as said that if he has a Pro-Bowl year in 2011 that he would not receive an extension. The best Seattle fans could hope for is that he would be retained under club control through 2012.

Many Seattle radio personalities have wondered aloud why Aaron would walk away from guaranteed money. Basically, the $5.9M or so he is owed in 2012 is no longer guaranteed. And he agreed to that. I think he agreed because he (1) has already banked significant money (2) he is confident he will get paid as a starter somewhere in the league (3) he wants out of Seattle. I think he knows that the expectations will be different (lower) in the next city he plays in. Perhaps he also thinks that he is not being used correctly in Seattle's scheme- which has been suggested by some very reputable beat writers. Perhaps he wants to live closer to home on the East Coast.

With that in mind, Pete Carroll does not need to turn his career around and create a long-standing Seattle feel good story. He just needs to get the most out of Aaron for 2011, and perhaps 2012. That's it. Just maximize 2011. Don't try to get $25M of value in one year. Just get Aaron to play the best football he can play in 2011. Deflect the expectations. Create an environment for him to be successful. And most likely, after 2011- everyone moves on. For Pete's sake. For Seattle's sake. For Aaron's sake.

Comment 45 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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So sad

Seeing our precious 4th round pick our proud team had the humility to suffer earning develop into this.

Seattle sports, always so close; yet so far. We can’t even capitolize on a #4 pick. Just sad.

by GnarlyHawk on Aug 25, 2011 7:15 AM PDT reply actions  

It's really weird for me looking back to that draft and that pick

I was sitting in a bar watching it on TV, and I remember being ecstatic that Curry had fallen to us. Everyone thought he was the can’t-miss pick, and I thought we’d finally get an impact player out of the first round.

By contrast, I was furious about the Carpenter pick, but he seems to be progressing at least. It’s funny how expectations really can affect how you view a player’s performance.

by Kingdomer on Aug 25, 2011 8:03 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

The key isn't passing

The key is defense. There is a reason that teams like the ravens, jets, pats, and packers are true contenders, they have excellent defenses! The 06 Bears are a good example, they had Rex Grossman and almost won the super bowl, same case with the ravens when they won it with defense. Our focus should be more on defense imo

by jgettman on Aug 25, 2011 8:49 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

Whoops

Meant to say that the ravens won it with dilfer* at qb

by jgettman on Aug 25, 2011 8:51 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Also

A couple examples of bad QBs making it deep don’t prove anything. The Bears didn’t make it to the playoffs the next 3 years. I think we all agree that we want the Seahawks to be consistent playoff contenders instead of a one year thing.

Look at the Packers, Colts, Patriots, Saints, etc. All contenders every year because of strong consistent QB play.

by SD37 on Aug 25, 2011 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree

Growing up a New York Giants fan – I officially “switched” to the Hawks the year the Giants beat the Pats in the Superbowl (doh!) Still felt good – I’ve seen a team grind out wins by playing good D.

I think PC values defense but had so much work to do on both sides of the ball, he had to pick one side to overhaul first. I think we will see a quarterback and a whole lot of defense next year in the draft. In the mean time, he’s just trying to get the most out of the players he has. Corners are looking promising. Safeties are sexy. I’m looking at you for next year D Line.

"(Mark LeGree) corners the other team's quarterback before games and makes him apologize for being born".

by LurkBag on Aug 25, 2011 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I actually agree that a strong defense is 9/10 times needed to win a SB

It’s like you need either an Elite QB and a good- get the job done defense.

or a solid enough QB and a strong defense. Some combo of the two.

by Davis Hsu on Aug 25, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Never select a nonpass rush linebacker that early

I thought it was a ridiculous pick, but one completely expected. Afterwords I held out hope that he’d become the next Derrick Brooks, which was a long shot.

Looking back at the combine results it’s easy to see why the supposed “combine stud” and amazing physical specimen fails at the NFL: he’s the wrong kind of athlete.

People love 40 times (next to interviews) so it starts there:

Curry 4.56 (1)
Matthews 4.67 (4)
Cushing 4.74 (7)
Laurinaitis 4.88 (doesnt make top 15)

Curry also destroys it in the vertical jump and broad jump by a good margin

But in the 3 cone drill:

Cushing 6.84 (1)
Matthews 6.9 (2)
Laurinaitis 6.93 (3)
Curry 7.15 (10)

And 20 yard shuttle:

Matthews 4.18 (2)
Cushing 4.22 (4)
Laurinaitis 4.24 (6)
Curry 4.51 (14)

It’s very simple. Curry lacks the ability to change direction quickly. It has nothing to do with his mental abilities. If he had to chase a running back 40 yards, he could get to him faster then most other linebackers, but as soon as the running back changed his direction, Curry would go flying off course. So you see a lot of over-pursuit which you mistake for mental errors and him looking slow to react. Well, I guess he is slow to react, in that his body just doesn’t turn that quickly compared to other players.

It’s not Curry’s fault for being selected at 4, but it is the Seahawks fault for not evaluating him correctly.

by B.B.Finnegan on Aug 25, 2011 8:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Also, davishsu

I would use less CAPITALIZATION. Or really, none at all. It looks unprofessional and like you’re yelling and saying we’re not smart enough to pick out the important words. This is field gulls, we are. If you need to emphasize something, there are other ways. But I don’t think you even need to, your writing voice is just fine without it.

by B.B.Finnegan on Aug 25, 2011 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

No, it's not just you.

However, it might be just you and me.

LOUD NOISES!

by John Edwards on Aug 25, 2011 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I for one agree

Emphases should never really be all caps, and even italics or bold should be used sparingly. I almost never use them when writing.

Formerly Known As Vasilii

by Thomas Beekers on Aug 25, 2011 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Diff'rent Strokes for diff'rent folks

I sometimes like to add a little EMPHASIS to what I’m writing; makes what I’m saying a little more conversational. It’s not everyone’s style, but I don’t think it’s obtrusive (if done appropriately).

by J.L. White on Aug 25, 2011 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have to admit I'm prone to using all three, and too liberally.

Most writing comes through just fine without overindulging in typographical porn. I have a coworker WHO uses all caps FAR TOO MUCH. It’s REALLY distracting and FRUSTRATING AS FUCK to try to READ.

Davishsu, I didn’t read your article that way. Your use of caps looked totally different than that to me. I’m just a sucker for finding any excuse to attack excessive all-caps use.

by John Edwards on Aug 25, 2011 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

You think that's "bad"?

I “worked” with a guy who “used” quotation marks like they were “going” out of “style”. And the “context” made about as much sense as “this” does.

1. Charlie Whitehurst 2. ??? 3. Profit!!!

by NinjaHawk on Aug 25, 2011 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, that's crap in a totally different way.

CAPS look like you are SHOUTING and it’s a little bit harder to READ. “Quotes” don’t indicate emphasis, they indicate you’re “quoting” something. And in many cases, it makes the exact opposite point of what you’re trying to say.

Like…

Hey guys, I have noticed that many of you have been leaving “junk” in the bathroom. Can you please tidy it up when you’re done?

If you meant to say “stop taking a dump in the bathroom and not flushing” or “please stop shitting on the floor” without actually saying it, then you used the quotes somewhat correctly. If you actually mean people are leaving magazines in there, then you FAIL. You FAIL with a capital FAIL.

by Johnny Slick on Aug 25, 2011 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

How about

Bold, but in blue & green coloration?

Can't wait for the 2011 season to kick in.

I'm a one man rec'n crew

by jubelthebear on Aug 25, 2011 10:04 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Not that we should have taken him 4th overall...

but i really wish we’d have found a way to get Laurinitis in that draft. He’s a beast. And his name sounds like a disease.

Beast Mode, fo' real.

by Lucas Cervi on Aug 25, 2011 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

No way does Ruskell draft Laurinaites with Tatupu still around.

Maybe Carroll would have done it if James was in the draft last year…..maybe.

by J.L. White on Aug 25, 2011 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Excellent point. I haven't seen these numbers before, but

I doubt that Ruskell & Co. failed to do their homework.
They probably did what most people do when confronted with an inconvenient truth.
They ignored it.

by broadbill birdwatcher on Aug 25, 2011 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agree & disagree

Yes, he does miss tackles b/c of change of directions. No, thats not the only reason he misses tackles. He is easily faked by QB’s and often completely blows assignment because of it. Happened a couple times this past weekend. McNabb completely faked a him w/ a fake handoff to a RB, that Curry bit and chased down. Once he realized McNabb rolled out and was headed to the sideline, he then changed direction, extremely poorly – like you point out.

He’s not only slow at following the ball, he runs to where the ball was. I also think teams get in his head a lot and he’s is an emotional player. Helmet toss being the most obvious situation. Imagine what goes on that we can’t here. I bet he’s goated by offenses constantly; affecting his play.

by GnarlyHawk on Aug 25, 2011 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

That goes hand in hand with the change of direction thing, though.

A guy who bites on a play-fake but who can switch directions quickly might only be out of the play for a step to Curry’s two.

by Johnny Slick on Aug 25, 2011 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

A Pro Bowl Selection???

Really? Who cares about the Pro Bowl? Just get off the man’s back!

 I comprehend that the 4th overall pick is supposed to develop into a “Star/Stud” type player a la Ray Lewis (I’m not comparing Curry to Lewis positionally [obviously] as I realize that they do not play the same position). I’m simply going by their respective value(s) to their team’s defense and their importance to the team overall. No one has stated that Curry is a Gholston. As far as I’ve read, Curry doesn’t have an attitude problem. It seems that Curry has a desire to learn and to do what he can to help the Seahawks win. He’s supposedly a hard-working and stand-up guy who you can confidently argue, has been overpaid based on how he has produced for us and/or what he has accomplished for us to this point. In all fairness to Curry, his first year was with Mora’s defense where he was switched to a different position/role from that which he played at Wake Forest. Last year was his first year with Carroll and he was again assigned a different role/ set of responsibilities. Neither of the 2009 or 2010 Seahawk defenses were outstanding, but from what I observed in the games I watched last year, Curry played a significant role in assisting Red Braynt and the scheme in helping the Seahawks defense get to their #2 ranking in stopping the run, (until Bryant went down anyway).

 If the Caroll mantra is in fact “Compete” Curry hasn’t had anyone competing with him for his starting position. Maybe he needs that kind of motivation. Who knows? But give the kid the benefit of the doubt for at least one more year. Maybe this is the year it clicks for him. The 12th man can lament all it wants about Curry being a bust or a goat. I submit that it’s still too early to tell and that everyone should be just a little more patient. I just know that I’m going to despise all the bandwagon jumpers who profess Curry’s greatness if and when he has an amazing year. I bought a Curry jersey this off-season when I visited Qwest (4 days prior to its being renamed C-LINK) I really hope he succeeds this season and shuts up his naysayers but I’m okay with him simply performing his tasks/role effectively and being a cog in the defense as opposed to becoming the star of it. I’d rather Curry step-up in the clutch with the occasional big play and have him go unnoticed the rest of the time because he’s steady. I understand the sentiment of those of you who are sick of watching replay after replay where he’s blown his coverage and/or missed a tackle by failing to have wrapped up his assigned man. However, hoepfully, it’s a thing of the past, but even if he struggles on occasion again, he’s only been with Seattle 2 seasons. This is year 3. Still not a long time for a young player who’s still learning the position and nuances at the pro level compared to college

I think Davis Hsu is very likely correct in saying that Curry will never (in his NFL career) live up to the expectations associated with the 4th overall pick of the draft, but let’s face it, $*it, happens. Everyone had Curry ranked as being the next Dick Butkus or someone the like. However, it doesn’t mean that he can’t be an important cog in the Seahawks defense this season. Let’s face it, based on how the first team offense is performing, if there’s any hope of a return to the playoffs this year we’re going to need the defense to majorly step-up and return to the effective run-stopping defense that it was during the first half of last season.

If Curry effectively does what he’s assigned to do (along with everyone else), then (hopefully) we only have one side of the ball to worry about. Which will be a nice change from the numerous blowouts that we had to endure last season.

I think Curry will step up and improve this season, he just won’t be the stud NFL linebacker that he was projected to be 4 years ago. So what?

by Zarleyhawk on Aug 25, 2011 8:59 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I didn't even take the time to read to above novel.

But anyone with that long of a reply deserves a rec.

by banksta3 on Aug 25, 2011 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks Banksta3

I had a few typos in there which I’m annoyed about and I probably should’ve separated some arguments more clearly to distinguish the differences in my points from those of author. However, I’m just annoyed that Curry is the new poster boy for what’s wrong with this team. He’s not the problem! He’s still young with talent and upside. I fear that Curry will be the first player targeted by the media and ignorant members of the fan base if Seattle underperforms this season. I don’t think that hating on Curry is warranted unless he racks up one or more 15-yard unsportsmanlike penaltie(s) per game and misses two or more tackles/ blown coverage causing points, on a semi-regular basis. He’s a solid citizen with experience on a young and ineperienced defence. Let him play out this season before he’s dubbed the “B-word”.

by Zarleyhawk on Aug 25, 2011 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm on the fence about Curry

And it starts with a simple question; What would we be saying about him had he been nabbed in the 3rd, or even 2nd round? Would we be praising his ability to step in and contribute almost immediately, rarely sticking out like a sore thumb due to poor play, yet never quite escalating to the upper echelon of linebacking play?

I like to look at other players drafted a few years ahead of Curry in similar situations and compare how they have developed. With the recent contract extensions to 5th year Pittsburgh linebackers Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley, I’ve been thinking about the two quite a bit, specifically Timmons. A workout warrior and veritable athletic freak, Timmons produced at an above average level, but nothing extraordinary his first few seasons. And while Pittsburgh asks its linebackers to play a much different role then their Seattle counterparts, Woodley predominately a pass rusher and Timmons lining up in the middle, I feel we can gain some perspective looking at these players.

In year one Timmons wasn’t asked to do a ton (Pittsburgh tends to bring their players along slowly, both because they can due to talent and demanding spotless execution) and slowly crept up in tackles till he was hovering around 65 a year his first 3 seasons. And honestly, that’s right around where Curry has been, albeit from the SAM position.

What I’m getting at is people need to step away from the fact he was a 4th overall pick. He’s no longer being paid like one, and as far as I see it, once a player is drafted and is practicing with the team, he is a part of a draft class and must battle for playing time just like every other player. If you separate yourself from expectations and look at Aaron Curry as nothing more than a linebacker on the Seahawks roster, you can gain a better idea of what he is capable of on the football field.

He’s good. He’ll continue to be good. If that’s with the Seahawks for more than 2 years, I’ll be very surprised however.

by mjkleko on Aug 25, 2011 10:57 AM PDT reply actions   2 recs

I know one thing.

He keeps throwing helmets and racking-up personal fouls Pete will trade him for a ham sandwich and a coke. If he can find a partner.

by Richard fg7 on Aug 25, 2011 11:10 AM PDT reply actions  

First of all: with all due respect to any other FG writers..

Can you write more…much more for this blog?

That said I disagree with the knee-jerk ‘oh God, it’s Curry’s last year in Seattle talk. I think he’ll most certainly play here through 2012 AT LEAST. He’s still a young player from a small(er) school that needs time to grow into his off-the-charts physical talents. I look at guys like Derrick Johnson (LB, KC) and even A.J. Hawk (LB, GB) who took a few years and faced the same polarizing discussion about their futures with their respective teams.

When teams around the league are throwing 30+ million at guys like Clint Session and Thomas ‘double torn ACL’ Davis, Curry’s worth is, in my estimation, being devalued big-time.

Yes, he’s a bonehead sometimes. Yes, he’s not a sack-artist. He can punish TEs and ball-carriers and has the tools to cover as among the best in the league with some coaching and experience.

I’m not ready to bail on him – not even close. I hope I can at least wear out his jersey I bought just last year before he wears out his welcome here.

2011: Building the Trenches.

by Misfit74 on Aug 25, 2011 11:20 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

It's funny..

Remember how good he looked in the beginning of his career here? That first game against the Rams he tore it up! Come on Curry..

Ka-Kaaa!

by JerryNice on Aug 25, 2011 1:06 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Curry isn't a bust based on my expectations...

He just is.

My expectation are generally based on what a player has done lately and Curry has done squat. So this season, I don’t expect much more.

The thing that sets up my expectations and the eventual disappointment, is when someone plays below their abilities, like when we sign a stud FA and their career takes a nose dive.

The whole Pete reviving careers is BS. He is taking chances on some guys in the absence of real talent and we hope 1 out of 10 would work out. He is just more open to working with people with genuine desire to succeed.

I am a fan, not a coach or a talent scout. I will talk all day about potential and pretend like I am some big shot scout but nothing gets me more excited or raises my expectations than a proven commodity.

I am a little peeved at this collective call to lower our expectations for Curry. Lower from what?

by goatweed on Aug 25, 2011 11:39 AM PDT reply actions  

How is he a bust?

Tony Mandarich was a bust. Rick Mirer was a bust. Curry hasn’t produced to the 50th percentile of a #4 pick (at least I don’t think he has; that’s actually something I want to check) but that makes him a mild failure, not a bust. He’s nowhere near bust country, I’m sorry.

by Johnny Slick on Aug 25, 2011 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

They did it right

Curry now has one year to prove that he belongs here. I’m sure we will see some improvement from him this year. If not maybe we pick up a good FA LB next year.

Yes I have a beer in my hand... and I'm ready to watch the Hawks smash the 49ers in week 1.

by HawksFever on Aug 25, 2011 12:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Zarley's right.

First, he was drafted by a GM that proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he shouldn’t be a GM for any team we like. And the pick was universally hailed by all the talking head media doucheniks as The Second Coming Himself.

Second, Mora (also proven he shouldn’t be coach of any team we like), immediately put him in a position he had never played in his entire college career.

Third, Uncle Pete and Norton Jr. put him here, there and everywhere to see where he could be good at this level last year. I would assert that a lot of busts would end up being at least good if they had the luxury of being in a position that maximizes their talents and minimizes their weaknesses. Especially if they’re not headcases.

And, lastly, for a guy to start on a crappy team and turn in a decent rookie year with some more bonehead plays than brilliant ones, followed by a sophomore effort where he was at least average most of the time, with fewer bonehead plays and more brilliant ones means he’s getting better at his job. And Norton has coached up a few Pro Bowlers and been to a few himself, so I would expect he will be better still this year.

This year, based on his learning curve alone, I assert he will be slightly above average most of the time, with less of a percentage of bonehead plays and a higher percentage of brilliant ones. Best case, because of his speed, power and range, he will just completely make a giant area of the field between Red and Earl disappear as an option for opposing teams. Completely taking away all the running and passing lanes on one side of the field, with KamBam on the other side doing much the same, while Leroy crushes the passer, who then throws pick after pick as he get sandwiched between Leroy and our Leo of the day.

Hey, he’s a starter on an unbeaten-in-the-regular-season team right now…

by bleedshawkblue on Aug 25, 2011 1:45 PM PDT reply actions  

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