NFL QB Draft History: 2000-2011
by Davis Hsu on Sep 22, 2011 8:00 AM PDT
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The rise and fall of an NFL team's destiny over the last decade is largely told in the accompanying article and attached chart (QBDraftHistory).
Observations from the last 12 NFL Drafts in Regards to QBs:
In 9 of the last 12 years a QB has been taken 1st overall. The years where they weren't were 2000, 2006 and 2008. 75% of the time a QB goes #1.
FIRST QB OFF THE BOARD
When considering the 1st QB taken off the board: 8 of the last 12 have "worked out" (subjective yes, but in my view) - (67%).
The one's that didn't: David Carr 2002, Alex Smith 2005, Vince Young 2006 and JaMarcus Russell 2007. I haven't given up on Vince Young- so it could be 9 of 12 (75%).
There is nothing 100% in this business. 67-75% is the closest you will ever get to a sure thing.
SECOND QB OFF THE BOARD
When considering the 2nd QB taken off the board: 6 of 12 have worked out and if we give Locker the benefit of the doubt- that is 7 of 12 or 58%. Not bad.
The one's that didn't pan were: Giovanni Carmazzi 2000, Joey Harrington 2002, Matt Leinart 2006, Brady Quinn 2007 and Tim Tebow 2010.
THIRD QB OFF THE BOARD
Getting uglier here. Can you really say Jason Campbell panned? I would say no. I will give Blaine Gabbert the benefit of the doubt and say Kevin Kolb panned out even though it's still early. 5 of 12 QBs were good picks from the 3rd QB off the board slot.
The winners? Big Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert. Success rate of 42%.
The rest? Chris Redman, Quinton Quarter, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen. Then again, Campbell is a starter- so maybe the success rate is 50%.
FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD
Yes to Rex Grossman? Uh...ok. Yes to Colt McCoy? Chad Henne? There is not a definite "good" NFL starter that was the 4th QB off the board in the last 12 years!
The for sure No group? Tee Martin, Matt Tuiasosopo, Josh Mccown, JP Losman, Charlie Frye, Kellen Clemens, John Beck, Pat White.
Let's just be nice and say that Henne, Grossman, Mccoy and Ponder are not busts. 4 of 12 here. 33%. Eeks.
FIFTH QB OFF THE BOARD
I say yes to Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and that's it. 3 of 12. 25%.
The no group: Chris Weinke, Dave Ragone, Andrew Walter, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Stanton, Kevin O'Connell, Steven McGee, Mike Kafka and Andy Dalton. I know its still early on Dalton.
So in review- here are the rough numbers depending on how you classify the draft picks working out in terms of being a quality NFL Starting QB:
1st QB off the board: 67-75% success rate
2nd QB off the board: 50-58% success rate
3rd QB off the board: 42-50% success rate
4th QB off the board: 16-33% success rate
5th QB off the board: 25-33% success rate
See a pattern here?
If the Seahawks would have drafted a QB in 2011, he would have been the 5th QB off the board barring a trade up. I know every year is different and you can't go make calls based on history, but it is interesting to note.
OTHER TIDBITS
--Of the 15 second round QBs drafted in the last 12 years, only one is a legit star: Drew Brees, and only 4 more are starters in the NFL (Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, Andy Dalton). Pretty low success rate in the 2nd round.
--If the Draft were held today, Brees would have been drafted in Round 1. In 2001 there were only 31 picks in the 1st Round and he was pick 32.
--There are nine Starting Quarterbacks (28%) in the NFL that were not drafted in Rounds 1 or 2:
Matt Hasselbeck - Rd 6
Tom Brady - Rd 6
Tony Romo- Undrafted
Matt Schaub - Rd 3
Luke Mccown - Rd 4
Kyle Orton - Rd 4
Matt Cassel - Rd 7
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Rd 7
Colt Mccoy - Rd 3
-- There are five NFL Starters that were drafted in 2004 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Luke Mccown).
-- There are six NFL Starters that were drafted in 2005- most of any year (Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick)
-- Tarvaris Jackson was the 5th QB off the board in 2006 and Charlie Whitehurst was the 6th QB off the board.
-- In three of the last twelve years, four QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2003, 2004 and 2011.
-- In four of the last twelve years, three QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.
-- 18 of 32 NFL Starters were 1st rd Draft Picks- or 56%.
-- There have been 32 QBs drafted in Round 1 in the last 12 years for an average of 2.67 per year.
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You're including 2010 and 2011 in the evaluations?
2009 I could understand but it’s way too early to judge the success of QBs drafted this year.
Also, considering #th taken without round taken is a bit iffy. Still. Informative.
Baseball isn't played because it's *interesting*. Baseball is played because without darkness we would not appreciate the light: without sorrow, we would not appreciate joy. Baseball makes us savour life and reminds us to treasure every second we have on this beautiful planet, because such moments may never come again. Baseball is played, my dear friend, because without it we would not appreciate the time we don't have to play baseball.
by Thomas Beekers on Sep 22, 2011 8:06 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Round doesn't really have much significance.
Overall draft position has a little. Comparing QB to QB is probably the stat with the least noise. Round and overall have so much to do with team needs, 2011 was a weird draft because QB need was so great. Locker and Ponder could have been taken outside the first in other years.
But any evaluation like this is going to have some apples to bananas comparisons.
Round or overall draft position, that matters not to me, one or the other
I’m not saying either should dominate, just that not factoring it in at all is odd.
Baseball isn't played because it's *interesting*. Baseball is played because without darkness we would not appreciate the light: without sorrow, we would not appreciate joy. Baseball makes us savour life and reminds us to treasure every second we have on this beautiful planet, because such moments may never come again. Baseball is played, my dear friend, because without it we would not appreciate the time we don't have to play baseball.
by Thomas Beekers on Sep 22, 2011 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions
How is Gabbert factored into success or "winner"
with one quarter of football to his name?
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
And McCown is officially
“not a starter” anymore.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
Yeah, the only 2 names through the entire list that jumped out at me were Kafka and Dalton.
Dalton is a starter (not sure how a 5th pick QB could do better) and Kafka predictably a development guy that looked okay in relief of Vick this past weekend. And Andy Reid speaks highly of Kafka (although that could be coach speak, who knows).
Regardless, hard to put these 2 guys in the “no” column quite yet.
Otherwise, no arguments.
Although I have to say one more thing – with no lock-out, I think Leinert gets signed and we never see TJax here. Leinert battles CW for the starting position and wins.
Not sure if we’d be much better off in that scenario, but it couldn’t be much worse.
About the 2011 Seahawks: "And if I laugh at any mortal thing, tis that I may not weep." Byron
by Hawksince77 on Sep 22, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Interesting idea
But better to ignore last 2-3 years and go back a few extra years further to start with
Illuminating and not so shocking
Seems to support what I take as the prevailing Field Gulls opinion: it was okay to pass on lower level prospects last year but getting a higher level prospect better be the top priority now. Also that, sure, QB evaluation is a crap-shoot, but it’s not quite the crap-shoot it’s often passed off to be. (Lastly, to reduce noise, should we just throw out any Al Davis picks?) Thanks for compiling this.
What?
Alex Smith didn’t work out?? When did that happen??
(joking of course)
by Redzone59 on Sep 22, 2011 9:58 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Seahawks might be below the average.
I would be curious to see where all the QBs the Seahawks have ever drafted fit in to this equation. If my memory is a good as I like to think it is we haven’t had much success picking a qualilty starting QB in the draft even with first round picks.
Lets see, Jim Zorn, Dave Krieg, Matt Hasselbeck, an aging Warren Moon, Trent Dilfer, John Kitna...
…any other QBs who started for the team over any length of time? Can’t think of any.
See any first round picks in this list? I know Seattle drafted first round QBs but none that ever stuck, or am I remembering wrong?
About the 2011 Seahawks: "And if I laugh at any mortal thing, tis that I may not weep." Byron
by Hawksince77 on Sep 22, 2011 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
How long to Mirer start for the Seahawks? I really don't know - I thought it wasn't for very long, but maybe I just wasn't paying attention...
About the 2011 Seahawks: "And if I laugh at any mortal thing, tis that I may not weep." Byron
Just looked it up, and you're right: Mirer played for Seattle for 4 years:
So we gotta count him.
About the 2011 Seahawks: "And if I laugh at any mortal thing, tis that I may not weep." Byron
No you're right
The only QBs we drafted were Kelly Stouffer, Dan McGwire, Rick Mirer, Brock Huard, David Greene and Senca Wallace.
Yeesh.
"I know football doesn’t mean shit in the real world, but my life is small, petty and mean, and I live this tiny span, this sixty years of cognizant life if I’m lucky, pouring my time and energy and money into believing in the Seahawks. And right now, I see a logo, a decal, an identifying set of colors, that I suffer for the sake of someone else’s incompetence." - John Morgan
I think this means that Portis is the QB of the future
If he is to follow in the footsteps of previous seahawks undrafted free agents Jim Zorn and Dave Krieg.
Dave Kreig!
Again, were any of these guys significant starters? I know Wallace wasn't. The others?
About the 2011 Seahawks: "And if I laugh at any mortal thing, tis that I may not weep." Byron
This is why I hate it when people point to epic high first round busts for a reason not to select a QB early
Yeah, there are a few, but if you want a great QB that’s were you have to take one. There’s a pretty big drop off after the first round, or after the first two QB’s are taken, as this shows. Waiting because you’re afraid and trying to hit a Tom Brady in the sixth is a near impossible venture. Yes, there are no busts in the sixth, or even the second or third round on, but that’s only because they’re not expected to be any good. And you get what you pick. If Barkley and Luck both enter the draft, this is the year, it needs to be done at any cost (by that i mean trading up if we’re not high enough).
Yeah, you draft a QB in the 6th when you are solid at QB already.
Matt H – Behind Favre
Brady – Behind Bledsoe
Schaub – Behind Vick
Cassel – Behind Brady
You usually don’t draft a QB late when Charlie Whitehurst is the only QB on your roster and you expect those two to compete. Even with the Browns they expected McCoy to sit behind Delhomme for a year.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 22, 2011 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Surprising how many people forget that one
"That's funny. I post here all the time and I never see (you) here."
- GreatGoogly, to John Morgan
"John Morgan IS Field Gulls, asshole!"
I am confused - isn't that the second example listed by Humbled?
About the 2011 Seahawks: "And if I laugh at any mortal thing, tis that I may not weep." Byron
I think if we can say Yes to Kevin Kolb we can say Yes to Colt McCoy. Especially if we are saying "Yes" to Blaine Gabbert (Which is k-rraazzy!)
We’re obviously not dealing with 100% accuracy here and its just a neat way to look at the QBs that have been drafted. I mean.. Kerry Collins! 2nd off the board in 1995!
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 22, 2011 11:08 AM PDT reply actions
The last two years really just need to be thrown out, and then let's see where the statistics land
I don’t expect much of a difference, but adding in the last two years is kind of damning the study and I don’t see anything gained by including them.
by B.B.Finnegan on Sep 22, 2011 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I still find nth-taken to be far too spurious a standard.
Considering the 3rd QB taken in one year might go in a completely different area of the draft the following year.
http://17power.blogspot.com
I agree with this 100%
Case in point, the study groups Ben Ben Roethlisberger (11th overall) with Chris Redman (75th overall). To hold both to the same standard of “success” really doesn’t mean much.
If Kolb is a Yes...Campbell has to be one
His situation in Washington (and in College) was horrendous for a QB – something like 7 different offenses to learn in 7 consecutive years…The fact he made it to the pro’s (and is still a starter) – makes him a definite Yes.
Procrastination is the Art of Keeping Up with Yesterday.
by Ryche And Roll on Sep 22, 2011 12:09 PM PDT reply actions
On the flip side, if Campbell was any good they wouldn't have gone through seven different OC's
by B.B.Finnegan on Sep 22, 2011 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Because it's always the QB's fault, particularly with a steadfast and consistent owner like Dan Synder?
"How much blow can Charlie Sheen do? Enough to kill two and a half men." -Jon Lovitz
by Tyler Jorgensen on Sep 22, 2011 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice research
We definitely want a first round QB. Though I think a late round QB named Kellen Moore is going to do things in the NFL. He’s a rare talent for different reasons than usual.
The Seahawks should have drafted Brian Brohm with their 1st pick in 2008.
I’m not saying that, had he been drafted by Seattle instead of Green Bay, that he’d be a starter now or anything, but without the use of hindsight he was the right call that year. With all the information we in the public knew at the time, Brohm was nearly the equal as a prospect as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco; he was a rung below Ryan, but not so far down to that he deserved to be drafted enar the end of the 2nd round. He was also a “Ruskell player” as well, since he was a multi-year starter at a successful Big East school (Louisville hasn’t quite been the same since Brohm and Petrino left).
I see the logic, sort of, in drafting Lawrence Jackson, but with Kearny and Tapp already on board DE wasn’t necessarily a need. The Seahawks had already moved on from David Greene, and unless Ruskell and Holmgren were severely diluting themselves, Seneca Wallace wasn’t anything closer to becoming a long-term starter. Brohm wasn’t a WCO quarterback, I guess, but he wasn’t stiff like Ryan Mallett or one-dimensional cannonarm like JaMarcus Russell (and if that kind of thing was important, the Seahawks could have just reached on Chad Henne, who I believed was considered to be a fit after playing at Michigan).
Even after his wonderful 2007 season, the Seahawks should have guessed that Hasselbeck wouldn’t last forever, just like the Packers were thinking in 2005 when they drafted Aaron Rodgers. Even with the same career results for Brohm and the Seahawks being in the exact same situation now, showing some kind of commitment to the QB position in the last 6 years would have been gratifying.
I always assumed the Lawrence Jackson pick was Ruskell trying to emulate the Giants
The theory being that the Seahawks playoff window was still open (not unreasonable given what Matt and the defense had shown in 2007) and having just witnessed the Giant’s pass rush able to finally overwhelm Brady and the undefeated Patriots. Seemed like some kind a trend he wanted to get into.
by SmartAssCoug on Sep 22, 2011 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions
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