The San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks: Parallels & Outlook
by Daniel Hill on Jan 19, 2012 11:06 AM PST
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I was in the stands at The CLink on December 24th, 2011, to watch a classic game of smash-mouth football between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Naturally, I was bummed when the Niners escaped with a 19-17 victory over our Seahawks.
I hate everything about the 49ers. I can't stand them and I never want them to win. I especially do not like their Head Coach, Jim Harbaugh.
After watching the 49ers through the season and into the playoffs, I have unwillingly and begrudgingly fallen in love with the way they play football. They play the game precisely the way I want my Seahawks to play. The Hawks are currently configured as a near carbon-copy of the NFC Championship Game hosting 49ers, and this 49er team looks to advance to the Super Bowl this Sunday against the New York Giants.
When I see the 49ers hosting the NFC title game, I think, "Why couldn't it be the Seahawks? Why not?"
My answer is that, in the near future, I think it will be.
Look at the San Francisco 49ers and look at the Seattle Seahawks. The similarities between these two teams are astonishing. Both teams have upper tier defenses. Both teams have optimum power running backs in Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch. Both teams have limitations at the quarterback position in Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith (although after this weekend it seems easy to point out the improvement of Alex Smith). Both teams have head coaches with college coaching experience. At the risk of pointing out the extremely obvious, both teams are in the NFC West.
When it comes to defense, the statistics between the two teams are similar.
Defense Yards Per Game:
Seahawks: 9th in the NFL (332.2 YPG)
49ers: 4th in the NFL (308.2 YPG)
Total Rushing Yards Allowed:
Seahawks: 15th in the NFL (1797 yards on 473 attempts, 3.79 YPC)
49ers: 1st in the NFL (1,236 on 353 attempts, 3.50 YPC)
Pass Defense Yards Per Game:
Seahawks: 11th in the NFL (219.9 YPG)
49ers: 16th in the NFL (230.9 YPG)
Scoring Defense (Points Per Game):
Seahawks: 7th in NFL (19.7 PPG)
49ers: 2nd in NFL (14.3 PPG)
If you just look at the numbers, both defenses seem to be right on par with each other, with San Francisco getting the overall nod in my book because of the scoring defense. And, quite frankly - and this will probably generate some heated discussion, I would trade the Seahawks defense for the 49ers defense if I could.
Here are the two players that separate the 49ers defense from the Seahawks defense in my opinion:
1. Patrick Willis. Patrick Willis is the total package at linebacker. He is the type of linebacker that can change the entire complexion of a defense. The Seahawks lack that kind of presence at the LB position. Seattle does have some solid, instinctive linebackers in Leroy Hill, David Hawthorne and K.J. Wright (who had an impressive rookie season), that are a serviceable linebacking core.
But neither Hill, Hawthorne, or Wright are on the same level as Patrick Willis. First off, Willis is in an elite class athletically. At his combine in 2007, he clocked a 4.51 second 40-yard dash. To put that time into perspective, the Seahawks LB's ran 4.65 (Leroy Hill), 4.69 (David Hawthorne), and 4.75 (K.J. Wright). Elite speed at the LB position makes Willis a superior pass defender. In Vic Fangio's defense, Willis has taken on more responsibility in man coverage. Most of the time, Willis played one-on-one with the opposing teams tight ends. At 240 pounds, and with elite 4.51 speed, Willis is able to handle TE's by himself.
The 49ers only gave up 3 touchdowns all season to an opposing TE. The Seahawks conceded 7 TD's to opposing TE's. If you watched the NFL playoffs this weekend you saw some serious playmaking among the TE's: Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Vernon Davis, and Jimmy Graham. More speed at the linebacker position for the Seahawks is a must. Leroy Hill and David Hawthorne are both unrestricted free agents so they might have played their last game in a Seahawks jersey. I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks selected a stud LB in the first round.
2. Aldon Smith. The 49ers had the 7th most sacks this year with 42 and the Seahawks were 19th in the league with 33 sacks. The 49ers' Aldon Smith led the 49ers in sacks with 14 of them and he is just a rookie (which does not bode well for Seahawks fans). Chris Clemons has led the Seahawks in sacks for each of the past 2 seasons with 11 sacks each year. Clemons is a more than serviceable defensive end, and he has made some timely plays this season.
But to be truly elite defense (which is where I want to see the Seahawks in the future), they must have an explosive fear-inducing rush end that needs to be accounted for by the offense on every play. Aldon Smith is technically listed as an OLB but really is more of a DE because he plays at the LOS, usually with his hand in the dirt. Many draft experts project the Seahawks to take a DE in Round 1 and I'd be perfectly happy with that because generally elite defenses have a game-changer that rushes from the outside.
The 49ers run a 3-4 defense and the Seahawks run a 4-3 defense so their personnel varies slightly, but if you look at the individual players, a lot of them are comparable to each other.
Defensive Line:
Seahawks: Chris Clemons, Alan Branch, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant
49ers: Ray McDonald, Isaac Sopoaga, Justin Smith
The Hawks have three 300-pounders on the defensive line. The only Seahawks defensive line starter that is under 300 pounds is Chris Clemons, who comes in at 254 pounds. Hopefully, the Seahawks will resign Red Bryant. General consensus is that Bryant had a Pro Bowl caliber season. Alan Branch also made an impact in the middle, and is one of the reasons the Seahawks had one of the better rushing defenses in the league. Clemons brought to the table 11 sacks but is still not the elite playmaking pass-rusher that the Seahawks need.
Justin Smith was elected to the Pro Bowl this season and had 7.5 sacks this season and forced 3 fumbles. Ray McDonald was selected as an alternate. Bottom line: the Niners are set at DL for the foreseeable future.
Linebackers:
Seahawks: Leroy Hill, David Hawthorne, K.J. Wright
49ers: Ahmad Brooks, NaVorro Bowman, Patrick Willis, Parys Haralson
The Seahawks rid themselves of the muscular robot named Aaron Curry and replaced him with someone who actually has a nose for the football (and does not commit bonehead mistakes) in K.J. Wright. The Seahawks still lack playmaking at the LB position. Last years' trio of LB's played the run well, but you have to wonder if that was because of the solid DL play the Seahawks received. It's also reasonable to believe that the talented Seattle secondary helped hide the LB's in coverage skills. Bottom line: LBs need an infusion of speed and have to improve in pass coverage before the Seahawks can become an upper-tier defense like the 49ers.
Cornerbacks:
Seahawks: Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman
49ers: Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown
The 49ers' Carlos Rogers was elected to the Pro Bowl. Rogers is regarded as one of the best cover guys in the NFC. The general consensus on Tarell Brown is that he had a solid season by improving to earn the starting spot and delivering with 4 interceptions.
Aside from the penalties, the Seahawks cornerback play was much better than I expected it would be. Despite the lack of first-class speed (which is probably why the two drew so many penalties), Browner and Sherman showed ball skills and instincts by totaling 10 interception (Browner with 6, Sherman with 4). Browner is an alternate for the Pro Bowl. A blessing in disguise this season might have been the injuries at CB because it allowed the Seahawks to see the depth that they had at the CB position. Bottom line: the Seahawks are seemingly set at CB, and the sky is the limit for Browner and Sherman.
Safeties:
Seahawks: Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor
49ers: Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner
The Seahawks have arguably one of the best safety tandems in the NFL in ball-hawking Pro Bowler Earl Thomas and heavy-hitting enforcer Kam Chancellor (Pro Bowl alternate). The 49ers are also right there in the conversation for best NFL safety tandems with Pro Bowler Dashon Goldson and alternate Pro Bowler Donte Whitner. The Seahawks are definitely set at the safety position for the foreseeable future. The 49ers are set with Whitner, but Rogers will be a free agent this offseason. Elite safeties are worth a hefty price tag on the free agent market so it will be interesting to see if the 49ers let Rogers walk.
Quarterback:
Seahawks: Tarvaris Jackson
49ers: Alex Smith
Do the Seahawks stick with Tarvaris Jackson at the helm? Do they sign a hot commodity free agent such as Matt Flynn? Or do they wait until April to solve the quarterback questions with a high first round QB? Or do they try to find a QB in the middle to late rounds that might become a diamond in the rough? Let's assume they stick with T-Jack for next season.
In my opinion, I think T-Jack had a mediocre season. Jackson certainly did not win any games for Seahawks, but he didn't necessarily lose any games for them either. I'm willing to give Tarvaris at least one more year to see if he can click with this offense. He didn't have a full off-season to gain rapport with his receivers and he did not have his best weapon in Sidney Rice for much of the season. I am optimistically hoping that Zach Miller can return to his former Pro Bowl form and earn his paycheck in terms of receptions.
Much has been made of Tarvaris Jackson's lack of clutch production. In the 49ers game, his lack of ability to lead the offense to scores when the game is on the line could not have been more evident. Two times Tarvaris Jackson was behind the center with a chance to lead the Seahawks to victory and twice he utterly failed. First, TJ scrambled and fumbled, and then on the last ditch effort TJ didn't even throw the ball in bounds on 4th down.
Alex Smith's clutch gene apparently came to life versus the Saints by constructing two consecutive clutch touchdown drives. The first touchdown was the 3rd and 7 QB sweep that might have been the best play call all year by any head coach and then by hitting Vernon Davis to get into FG range and then hitting again Davis with 9 seconds left in the game for the winning TD.
I've never seen Tarvaris Jackson carry the Seahawks offense the way that Alex Smith carried his 49ers offense against the Saints. So for the moment, I'm giving the 49ers an edge at the QB position.
Offensive Line:
Seahawks: Russell Okung, Robert Gallery, Max Unger, John Moffitt, James Carpenter
49ers: Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, Jonathan Goodwin, Adam Snyder, Anthony Davis
The continuity and growth of the offensive line, despite serious injuries to three of the five starters, certainly gives reason to think that the Seahawks should have an offensive line loaded with depth and talent for the next few seasons. Breno Giacomini, Lemuel Jeanpierre, and Paul McQuistan filled in admirably and well beyond expectations for James Carpenter, John Moffitt, and Russell Okung. The useful benefit of having a full offseason to work together should also help the OL unit become a key strength for the Seahawks.
Running Backs & Full Backs:
Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch, Mike Robinson, Leon Washington
49ers: Frank Gore, Bruce Miller, Kendall Hunter
The running back position is a place of question marks for the Seahawks. Will they re-sign or franchise tag Marshawn Lynch? How about fullback Michael Robinson? Assuming both Lynch and Robinson are back, the Seahawks are pretty much set in the backfield, as are the 49ers. Frank Gore (Pro Bowl) and Marshawn Lynch (Pro Bowl alternate) are both physical runners and Robinson and Miller are both Pro Bowl alternate fullbacks.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
Seahawks: Sidney Rice, Mike Williams, Doug Baldwin, Zach Miller
49ers: Ted Ginn Jr., Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis
Neither team has seen excellent wide receiver play, with injuries and inconsistency taking a toll on both WR corps. The Seahawks should have better WR's on paper because of the Sidney Rice is a guy who has performed at a high level in the past, but struggled to stay on the field this year. The real difference in receiver between these two teams is at the tight end position. Vernon Davis virtually put the 49ers offense on his back to defeat the Saints.
In the New Orleans game alone, Davis practically outperformed Zach Miller's entire season. Zach Miller had 25 catches for 233 and 0 touchdowns for the season. Vernon Davis on the other hand, had 7 catches for 180 yards and 2 TD's in just one playoff game. As a former TE myself, I'd be thrilled if the Hawks selected a game-changing TE in the draft. The best part about drafting a TE, is that top-notch talent can be found in the middle rounds: Jimmy Graham: Round 3, Jason Witten: Round 3, Aaron Hernandez: Round 4, Antionio Gates: undrafted.
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There are only four teams still alive in the NFL postseason: the San Francisco 49ers, the New York Giants, the Baltimore Ravens, and the New England Patriots. The bright side is that the Seahawks defeated two of those teams (Baltimore at home, and New York on the road), and took the 49ers to the wire both times they squared off.
Like I said earlier, I was at the San Francisco game in late December, and I really thought that it was a statement game for the Seahawks. Going into the game, the Seahawks still had a chance at snagging the last playoff spot and I thought it was a game that could really send a message to San Francisco about the future of the NFC West. The 49ers had a breakout season this year going 13-3 thanks to a punishing, opportunistic defense, aggressive running game, and timely production from the quarterback position.
San Francisco led the league in takeaways per game with 2.5, and Seattle finished 6th with 1.9 takeaways per game. The 4 teams between San Francisco and Seattle in takeaways per game are the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, and New York Giants (in that order).
Note that all five teams ahead of the Seahawks in takeaways per game all made the playoffs. Three of those teams are still alive in the playoffs and playing in the two conference championship games this upcoming weekend: New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, and New England Patriots (the Baltimore Ravens finished 10th in takeaways with 1.8 per game).
The Seahawks are at a point in the Pete Carroll era where I firmly believe that they can compete with anybody. No longer do I look at the schedule and see a 10 a.m. East Coast game and say "That's an automatic loss", nor do I see perennial playoff teams and think "We simply are not on their level".
The Seahawks have laid the foundation to success: an opportunistic defense that forces turnovers, and a dominating running game. With a quarterback that can lead them to victory late in the game (maybe TJ can become that guy) could we, next year, be watching the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game?
What do you think?
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It wouldn't break my heart
If we double drafted defensive linemen this year. Look for youth, speed, and a motor that doesn’t quit.
Regarding the comment that we are set for running backs – I have to disagree. Marshawn went down with back spasms before the Cleveland game – and we ended up losing. We need backups!
I’m not sure where we are heading with our tight ends. We are carrying four and none of them really stepped up this year. I guess we will have to draft another!
We are about two years away from being where San Fran is. But they did look beatable in our last game. And they looked beatable in the Saints game. It all came down to one last catch by Vernon Davis – who had the best game of his life.
Definately need some backups
and less injuries to our skill position players. Zach Miller and Jon Carlson might have been elite together, but we dont know and might not ever know if Jon Carlson takes the money and runs in Free Agency. Same with Marshawn Lynch. Free Agency in March will determine if I watch the Hawks next year.
Aww who we kiddin, I watched the Hawks with that retard Jim Mora coachin…. :(
Might we follow the Patriost lead next season?
Doug Baldwin in the Wes Welker role, Miller and Carlson(?) as the twin tight ends?
Carlson is a poor blocker,
And his contract is up, too.
Aaron Hernandez is a poor blocker too.
It’s not blocking that will prevent Seattle from copying the Pats, it’s talent. I love Carlson, but he is not close to the same level as a receiver as Gronk or Hernandez.
There's a lot I disagree with here
In particular, Aldon Smith. Aldon Smith’s value doesn’t come close to Justin Smith’s. He’s a hands-down player who plays only a few snaps because he’s a converted DE, he won’t be as valuable as he can be until he learns enough to be a fulltime OLB.
Also, since the 49ers run a 3-4, LBs are much more important to their defense than they are to our 4-3, especially our current system. This could change by changing our system, but as a rule 4-3 LBs are pretty fungible and unimportant. A Willis wouldn’t be nearly as important here, and Aldon would play a DE, not an LB. I’m all for changing this system, but this isn’t a “plug in a better LB and get much better” situation. In our current 4-3 under, adding a stud linebacker just doesn’t have that huge an impact because of what they’re asked to do. And that’s unlikely to change unless we switch to something much more like the 3-4, which we’re nowhere close to right now, despite people’s constant confusion on this topic.
We do need elite talent in the front seven, though. I think that should be the crux of comparing the two defenses.
Elite front 7 talent, 49ers: Willis, Smith, Smith.
Great front 7 talent, 49ers: Bowman, Sopoaga maybe.
Elite front 7 talent, Seahawks: none
Great front 7 talent, Seahawks: Mebane
That’s quite a gap.
Also, we do need a valid backup behind Lynch, and we really shouldn’t put a high pick in TE. Miller is fine once he can actually be out as a pass-catcher, though he’s not near Vernon’s level.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 11:24 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I'm confused
You say adding a stud linebacker wouldn’t have that huge of an impact but then advocate adding talent to the front 7. Do you mean just the down lineman, or do you mean to include linebackers there?
I do mean including linebackers
And with that I indicate again that I would like to see us change our system. To what, I don’t know. But I feel it’s not a part of the debate that should be ignored. If we’re adding a high level LB, we can’t just plug him in and continue playing and expect a significant impact. I’m trying to raise awareness that advocating for an LB upgrade should automatically include considering how it’ll change our system.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
How great do you see the benefit of getting an elite MLB though?
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 19, 2012 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
It's so hard to peg
Because elite talent never stands alone, being elite is all about freeing up the players around you.
I think 4-3 MLB in general is one of the most fungible positions in the NFL, but it’s all about scheme, what you do with it. The typical Kiffin one-gap attacking style, as exemplified by the Tampa-2 defense in Tampa Bay in its heyday, depended not just on Warren Sapp or Simeon Rice for pass rush, it was able to let them just shoot the gap and wreak havoc because it has Derrick Brooks covering two gaps by his lonesome behind them, because Brooks was a friggin beast.
Considering PC is a Kiffin disciple, even though it doesn’t show much in our current defense, you could see him scheme in a similar way around the MLB. Kick Branch to the curb because he’s kind of useless except as a run-stopper, but a real 3-tech next to Mebane, and just let them both shoot and wreak havoc. That alone would make an enormous impact, without even considering outside rush (our inside rush is more of a problem than our outside rush, to be honest).
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
Good Points
Seems like whenever we talk about a stud linebacker, it is with the intention of blitzing the QB.
I would rather the main effort went into our defensive line. Even if you like the people we got, injuries and rotations demand that you have twice as many players available.
Speaking of backups for Lynch, I didn’t think Leon Washington’s kick returns were very good at the end of the season. Maybe that should be blamed on blocking?
It's so hard to tell, isn't it?
Maybe the guys were afraid of getting those block in the back penalties and that softened up our blocking a bit.
I'm also a little confused
Your comparisons with the 49ners defense and the Seahawks clearly includes LBs with the 49ners but none listed with the Seahawks. It almost seems like you’re saying that we have absolutely no talent compared to the 49ners except for Mebane which would suggest we would need to replace all the remaining 6 to either be elite or great. I disagree with that since the statistics in the write up clearly show close similarities in both defenses.
The Seahawks do need a DE who is a problematic pass rusher for opposing teams which I hope they get in the 1st round of the draft. I’ve always thought it would be cool to add a dominant MLB (for exp: Ray Lewis) to our defense.
Tarvaris Jackson should be given a chance next year to see if he can be the leader of this team.(which I know a lot of fans would disagree with me) Does anyone really believe if we bring in someone fresh from free agency or the draft that we could honestly could be in contention for the playoffs next year? I certainly don’t. Look at Alex Smith and how long it took him to become part of a high caliber team. Sorry now I’m rambling. Last opinion; draft a mini beast to back up Lynch.
by darthmaul5456 on Jan 19, 2012 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
He's absolutely saying we have no elite/great LBs. And we really don't.
Alex Smith did what he did this year because SF finally got a coach that told him to stop attempting as many throws and his only job was to not turn it over. He was the most sacked QB in the NFL. In many ways, he’s the same QB as he was last year.
2010: 6.9 Y/A
2011: 7.1 Y/A
2010: 34.2 attempts per start
2011: 27.8 attempts per start
2010: 2.9 INT%
2011: 1.1 INT% (#1 in NFL)
Sure, we’d all love Tarvaris to turn into Alex Smith next year, but if there was ever a QB exception, it would be Smith.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 19, 2012 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
He also led the NFL in game-winning drives with six. I'll be happy if Tarvaris has one game-winning drive next year.
(He had 0 this year. Charlie Whitehurst had more.)
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 19, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
0 for 4, three of those home games
In every game but the Atlanta game he had more then one opportunity at the end, thanks to our defense, which means he was really 0-8 (3 chances against Arizona) on end of game drives.
Just think, if we had Alex Smith playing like he did this year, we’d have had a 10-6 season.
by B.B.Finnegan on Jan 19, 2012 3:25 PM PST up reply actions
I don't analyze based on statistics, I analyze based on tape, and use the statistics only in a support function
And our front seven talent is nothing like the 49ers. I am, in fact, saying that pretty much the entire front seven is made up of stopgaps that need to be replaced. We know Branch and Clemons are stop-gaps. We know Hawthorne and Hill are free agents and not entirely unlikely to walk. So who does that leave as our settled front talent? Bryant, Mebane, Wright? Bryant is a weird player to peg, but he certainly isn’t elite or great. Wright is a long-term starter but I can’t say he’s an elite talent based on what we’ve seen. Mebane is the best player on our front seven and he’s buried by the lack of surrounding talent. This isn’t a front seven that is one or two players away from matching the 49ers, this is a front seven whose deficiencies have been well covered by matchups and secondary strength, and one that our FO has put almost no resources in compared to picks/money put in elsewhere in the team. As far along as the rest of our team is in its rebuild, I can’t even say our rebuild of the front seven has started.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
And unfortunately it's looking like a pretty poor draft for defensive linemen.
There are some big budget free agents, but it’s hard to see Seattle adding any elite talent there this off season.
Yip
Saying “we need an upgrade” is different from “we can” or “we should” upgrade. We’ll see what we can do. I’m glad we retained Mebane, in any case, it’s a start.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
TB, this is spot on.
The defensive line has to be subject to upgrade at nearly every position, and linebacker is a dire need even if Hawthorne and Hill were retained.
Our stopgaps work reasonably well together, but don’t present much in the way of matchup issues for an offense. We simply don’t have many players with both quickness and power. San Fran does.
Aldon Smith is what we wish Raheem Brock’s was, an effective situational pass rusher. I think Aldon benefits greatly from Justin Smith, when Justin rushes from a standing position he creates multiple lanes for Aldon to go through. Props to the Niners coaching staff for letting Justin Smith do that. guards and centers need to cut block the holy hell out of him when he does that.
Looking over that roster, there is some high draft capitol in that front 7.
by Harvey Manfrengenson on Jan 19, 2012 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, like the Saints game
You could see Justin Smith pushing the offensive line back and Aldon stunting inside, A LOT. It was extremely effective. Your job gets a lot easier if you play next to Justin Smith, that’s what elite talent does.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
Justin Smith
Was a goddamn monster in the NO game. Pushed the LT all the way back into Brees and then dragged him down with one hand. That was ugly.
by dingoeatbaby on Jan 19, 2012 10:29 PM PST up reply actions
Haha, yeah, I remember that play
It was crazy.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 10:30 PM PST up reply actions
The biggest difference between San Francisco and the rest of the NFL came down to discipline, not beating themselves.
Really interesting stuff here on Football Outsiders.
The Seahawks were actually 2nd in the NFL in average starting position. Which surprised me, but has to be a result of interceptions, I would think. Seattle was 10th in average starting field position for the opposition.
On average, Seattle started at the 31.21 yard line.
Opponents started at the 26.57 yard line.
But San Francisco?
The 49ers were first in the NFL in average starting field position with 33.38.
They were also first on defense. Opponents started at the 23.99 yard line.
San Fran was also first in points allowed per drive (1.19), fumbles forced per drive (.068), and Drive Success Rate on defense. They were number on one offense in turnovers and interceptions, and 6th in fumbles.
On defense, they finished in the top 8 in every category based on those advanced stats.
Interesting comparison Daniel, Thank you for putting this all together in an easy-to-read format.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 19, 2012 11:47 AM PST reply actions
SF also only turned the ball over 10 times the entire season I believe
which is just ridiculous.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
Mention that fact along with the phrase "regress to the mean" on Niners Nation.
Watch what happens!
"The time has come," the Walrus said, "to talk of many things."
by shams on Jan 19, 2012 2:23 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Great Article
I like your analysis. I would love to have an elite QB, but lacking that, both the 49ers and the Ravens show that there is a way to win in the playoffs with a team like the Seahawks are becoming.
by Donald_Duck on Jan 19, 2012 11:52 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I would love
The 49ers to go to the SB and lose..
by Redzone59 on Jan 19, 2012 11:58 AM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Some interesting ideas
Though I will point out that thinking the Seahawks could have/hope to have success with a similar model does not in ANY way mean you have to root for them in the playoffs.
Also, I firmly believe the Seahawks are far closer to the 49ers than on first glance. The number that separates them this year largely is not personnel differences, but I believe the unsustainable +28 in turnover margin. That’s really high, and is somewhat based on recovering 15 of the 20 fumbles they forced during the regular season, which incidentally lead the league.
Everyone is really quick to praise the 49ers defense, and while they’re certainly good, they’ve also been incredibly lucky this year as well. It will be interesting to see how they do in 2012.
A couple of fumbles is luck. 31 means they are doing something right.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 19, 2012 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not quite sure I follow.
They forced 20 on the year and recovered 15 of them. Where does 31 come in?
And fumble recovery rate is one of those statistics that tends to not stay constant year to year. Football Outsiders had an interesting article about regressing to the mean that used that stat as an example.
I may have looked in the wrong area for total number of forced fumbles.
It’s more variable than other stats, but I wouldn’t chalk it up to pure luck. Just in that, Patrick Willis probably can cause fumbles at will.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 19, 2012 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
Yip, fumble recovery is luck, and nothing else
Forcing fumbles is a bit more sustainable, but even so, they will regress to the mean.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, recovery is luck, but I think the 49ers were able to give themselves more opportunity because of the way they tackle.
I think. I’ve only watched a few 49ers games and I’m going to keep a keen eye on them.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 19, 2012 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
I don't disagree that they play very physical defense which *could* lend itself to forcing more turnovers
But there’s still a decent amount of volatility there. For example, FF for the 49ers the last four years: 2008 – 12, 2009 – 23, 2010 – 14, 2011 – 20.
I forgot they had so many in 2009.
They were still very physical under Singletary. It’s just they cut down a lot on the mistakes they themselves make which has led drastically to the great turnover differential.
by Hopefulmsfan on Jan 19, 2012 2:24 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think it is fair to put Goldson and Whitner on the level of ET and Chancellor going forward.
Goldson and Whitner are both veterans who put together seasons that were ridiculously above and beyond anything they’ve ever done. This is probably the peak for both of them and it seems unrealistic to expect this level of play going forward. Chancellor and Thomas on the other hand are younger and both have only ever performed at this level. There’s a non zero chance this season was there peak but it is significantly smaller than that of Goldson/Whitner.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
Goldson is 27 and Whitner is 26.
Goldson definitely had his best year, but it wasn’t that much better than two years ago. He’s quietly been a good player. Whitner was pretty highly regarded early in his career before disappearing in Buffalo. I’d agree that ET and Chancellor are easily the better pair, but you’re being too dismissive of the Niners’ safeties.
I'm not being dismissive of them as quality players. I'm dismissive of them
being as good as ET and Chancellor. My point is that this probably their ceiling and while it is really, really good, while we don’t know what our guys ceiling is. I have a suspicion that Chancellor probably won’t improve too much from here but Thomas could be a HOFer and Goldson and Whitner, while they are good players will probably never reach that level.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
I would wait for ET and Chancellor to actually keep improving and showing they're legit before declaring them better than a more established duo
This is the NFL, anything can happen.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
I think you could say the same of Goldson/Whitner in being able to sustain this level.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
Comparatively, they're more established, and only just starting in their "peak age" period.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 19, 2012 2:49 PM PST up reply actions
Goldson and Whitner also had a better front 7.
Which made their job easier. I would say ET/Chancellor did more with less help but the 49ers safeties will probably maintain a high level of play if their front 7 stays intact.
by Hopefulmsfan on Jan 19, 2012 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
It wasn't a whole lot better than ours
The Niners had 40 sacks on the year (compared to 33 for us) and ranked 22nd (6.3%) in adjusted sack rate (compared to 28th for us (5.5%)). The Niners were certainly better but the difference between us and them is less than the difference between and the 13th best pass-rushers (JAC at 7.2%).
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 19, 2012 3:59 PM PST up reply actions
You're numbers never tell the whole story.
Having the threat of a pass rush makes teams play different. Like keeping the TE into block all the time. It changes the game, and leaves less receivers for the secondary to cover.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
That applies to every team though.
Are you saying teams aren’t game planning against Minnesotta or Denver’s pass rush, pushing them up and San Francisco down?
Absolutely
but we have to start somewhere. The numbers don’t begin and end the conversation but they’re certainly more valuable than gut feelings.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 19, 2012 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, it's a tale of numbers and tape.
From that perspective it makes the Seahawks secondary look really good, because we can send the house and still give the QB 9 seconds of pocket.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
Smith is a little better than TJ because....
Davis gets to run real routes and has increadable YAC, 67 catches! 93 targets!!!!!!
Miller blocked most of the season, when he did get the ball it was mostly check downs only 25 catches in 40 targets!
I have a noodle arm, and not really accurate, but I think I would look good if all I had to do was pass the ball 5 yards to this athletic freak 100 times….
One point of disagreement
About the 49ers’ down lineman. You say they are set for the foreseeable future. Justin Smith has been a great player dating back to his Bengals days and at 32 years old he just turned in another good season. But in 2007, the Seahawks had a 31 year old DE turn in a 14.5 sack season forcing five fumbles and we weren’t even set for the next year. Most football players age very quickly, even great ones like Smith, but I’m not worried about him even in the near future because history says he probably won’t even be good next year, let alone the foreseeable future.
I'm too important to this team. Big Stein can't be flopping and twitching.
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