A short note on what worked for the 49ers, but isn't really a "model"
As discussed here and there in the 49ers playoff run, this 49ers team shares a lot of elements that fit in with Pete Carroll's ideas for this franchise. Strong defense, strong special teams, offense playing it safe. This is the kind of model you often see defensive-minded coaches bring in, and I think it's a big part of the reason why there are indications that defensive-minded coaches are more apt to fail, at least until they learn the value of a good offense.
The two teams built with the defense-first model lost to a much more well-balanced and well-rounded team (the Giants) and an Indianapolis Colts-like offense-only team (the Patriots). That's a shame, I was hoping for a defense-only Superbowl. The Giants-49ers game again highlighted the value of a franchise quarterback. Ravens-Patriots, oddly enough, had Joe Flacco completely outplay Tom Brady, but the Patriots still won. Conclude from that what you will.
It's pretty clear when we're talking about successful models nothing trumps getting a great or elite franchise quarterback. Even if a defensive team once again gets to the Superbowl (last one was the Bears, I guess?) all that proves is that it's possible, it's still the less likely of the two paths. Possible or likely is a distinction I personally think is worth keeping in mind.
Here is one thing I think is troublesome about this model: it is highly dependent on winning the turnover battle, and not just by a small margin. To become the championship team they were, the 49ers required a +28 turnover margin. That is not sustainable. If you depend on turnovers that badly your margin for error becomes very small, and in a single game only one or two things have to go wrong before you are effectively taken out of the game because you lack a dynamic offense.
Greg Cosell pointed this out, a very basic point so obvious I was kind of surprised it even needed pointing out:
"Now, am I going to say he's the reason they lost? No, I think that would be a little strong. But, I think in tight games like that when everything doesn't go right that's gone right for your team all year, that's when your quarterback has to make throws, and there were a few he missed. Obviously, if Kyle Williams didn't do what he did they might still have won the game.
"When your turnover differential doesn't work in a given game - and by the way, you can't count on that. It worked out phenomenally this year, but I've done studies, a lot of people have done studies, a lot smarter people than me have done studies - that kind of thing doesn't happen year after year after year. So, the +28 will not likely happen next year, and when that doesn't happen - when other things that you expect don't happen, the magnitude's of the quarterback's play increases. That's just the way the NFL is."
Let that sink in, because it's important. Depending on winning the turnover battle game after game does not strike me as a sustainable model in the modern NFL. +28 is completely unsustainable, as has been proven time and time again, as fumble luck changes and - as Cosell points out - your quarterback is asked to do more as he is needed more. The 49ers were a perfect storm of luck in this sense, but that does not make it a very attractive model to duplicate. The likelihood of this extremely small margin of error holding up for three or four playoff games is extremely small, and that - in my view - is a huge problem.
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My 2 cents:
They have a +28 turnover ratio. Frank Gore suddenly never fumbles, Alex Smith suddenly never throws an INT. The defensive line suddenly ignites. Has hell frozen over? Of course not.
What Jim Harbaugh did (and I’ll give him credit for it) in his first season was dumbing everything down. Back to basics. This is a simple offensive scheme that’s not meant to attack – set up the pass using the run, making 3rd down conversions, etc, while the defense relies on pass rushing to hide the weakness in the secondary.
So why did it work? It was effective particularly both sides of the ball did not make many mistakes, while capitalizing on the opponent’s. Keep in mind, this is NOT a good team at all. You saw how close they were to losing many times during the season, even against the Saints last week. Harbaugh traded simplicity for short-term success, and the good news for this team is that we’re already two steps ahead in the future.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
by EequalsMc2 on Jan 26, 2012 4:25 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I don't agree that they aren't a good team.
There’s a reason why they’ve been picked to win the NFC West the last couple seasons. There is talent on that team, especially on defense. I don’t want to take anything away from Harbaugh, because I think he’s a very good coach, but I think their turn around speaks to how terrible Singletary was as a head coach. Harbaugh got them to stop shooting themselves in the foot and that suddenly that defensive talent shines through.
Well yeah. But none of that makes it sustainable. As a model.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
There's a ton of talent on this team
which is unsurprising given the draft position they’ve enjoyed whilst they have been a really ugly team for the last ten years. So yes, their defence is quite terrifying and they’ve relied on that, and been hampered by Smith who lacks the tools to run a dynamic offence. So they’ve reined him in, made sure he didn’t turn over the ball and hey, it’s no surprise that with some confience and a team that’s winning his numbers shoot up.
But he is the problem, and that’s why they went Kaepernick and, fortunately for us, they didn’t stink this year too allowing them to reach for RGIII or Luck – they could have auctioned the house, because to my poor eyes they aren’t lacking too much in other areas (though I’ll happily stand corrected). So its not sustainable, as on one side of the ball you are gimped. After all, Smith has been around a lot longer than TJack, so there is nothing to say the result will be entirely similar….yet.
by JohnnyLondon on Jan 26, 2012 4:58 PM PST up reply actions
As a 49er fan living in vancouver
Or just a football fan in general, I find your comment that this is not a good team at all very naive. This wasn’t a 1 year fluke, they’ve had talent for awhile. Justin Smith didn’t just become good, he’s been one of the best defensive players in the NFL for the past few years. Oh ya, Patrick Willis is just a lil above average as well. Aldon Smith is surely showing signs of slowing down, considering he just got more and more dominant as the year went on. You may say macdonald had a career year, but you could argue the front office recognized the talent, gave him franklins money, and his season was as planned. And I guess getting rid of an aging take spikes for an all pro like bowman was a fluke too… How many flukes does it take u til it becomes good management?
Signing whitner who is close to a pro bowl season … Fluke
Releasing franklin, putting in soap… Fluke
Signing macdonald to 4 yr contract and him playing great… Fluke
Reaching for Alcon smith and him almost breaking rookie sack record… Fluke
Releasing spikes, putting in bowman.. Fluke
Signing Rodgers, him performing to his original first round status… Fluke
Resigning Goldson, he plays as he has shown glimpses of… Fluke
Alex smith puts up respectable numbers…. Fluke
Justin smith is arguably the best defensive player for the third year in a row, along with Willis… Fluke
How about instead of flukes, it’s a combination of talent and coaching coming together?
All about coaching
We all know they were already loaded with talent. Their lack of competitiveness was all about coaching. Bottom line is the coach is responsible for the players executing the plays properly.
Mike Singletary is a motivator, not a teacher, not an “X-O” guy. Vikings brass have already concern about his intelligence and also his preparation for game day. Singletary sitll keeps his job becuase Leslie Frazier, VIkings HC is his long time buddy.
Flacco outplayed Brady if you don't consider the defenses they were playing against.
I think what’s kind of interesting about the 49er “model” is that they spent a high second round draft pick on a very risky, but extremely dynamic, quarterback. Just like Pete has done with a lot of Seahawks, Harbaugh is making the best of what he’s been given. He was given a ton on defense, but offensively he went extremely conservative and revitalized Smith’s career by severely limiting what was asked of him. If Kaepernick is any indication, that’s not what Harbaugh wants from his quarterback. Kaepernick is a pure playmaker who can help the running game a lot but can also threaten with both his legs and his arm if he ends up developing like they hope.
I don’t know that that’s necessarily any different than what Seattle is looking for in their quarterback. You could probably say that TJack fits that same mold of extremely risky but very dynamic. I just find it kind of odd that so much is made of being able to win with Alex Smith when one of Harbaugh’s first moves was to find his replacement.
by Nate Dogg on Jan 26, 2012 4:25 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
Harbaugh did what I hoped PC would do, but didn't
Worrisome? Yes.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
I'm confused.
If you’re implying that Pete should’ve resigned Matt, then I disagree with you.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
No, I'm implying Pete's taking a long time getting a legit quarterback, even if it has to be a project
For various reasons I’m fine with that, but it does make me extra nervous about this FA/draft period.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 5:25 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think Pete saw any franchise QB avaliable in the last two years.
Draft wise, we had plenty of chances to take our QBOTF in both years, yet we didn’t. There’s no standout QB’s from the 2010 draft class. And only Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are considered “successful” in their first year.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
It's too early to judge either class
But like I said, I get the logic in not going for it, but I’d much rather be in the 49ers’ situation than in ours.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 5:39 PM PST up reply actions
Again, I respectfully disagree.
SF has now committed themselves a lot for two very average league QB’s. With the breakout season Alex Smith has, no doubt they’ll have to resign for the long term and for more money, even though his game sucks. Then you have Kapernick, who you good 2nd round money for, sit behind him even more and have less of a chance to develop. Again, it’s short term gains in favor of long term success, something we know to proud of.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
I really doubt that Smith gets a big contract in the off season.
He’s not likely to find a better situation than the one he’s in and there’s not likely to be a huge market for him if the Niners call his bluff and let him test free agency. I really doubt San Francisco is going to want him back badly enough to give him huge money that they can’t get out from under.
As far as Kaepernick goes, he’s not going to rot sitting for a second season. With a guy like him, it’s probably for the best. There is zero contract concerns with having him wait another year. Second round picks have very team friendly contracts.
by Nate Dogg on Jan 26, 2012 6:52 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Have to?
Billick snapped Dilfer’s ass off the team, and Dilfer won a Superbowl. Harbaugh isn’t stupid, he’s not throwing tons of cash at Smith. No one is, there’s no huge market for him.
Kaepernick doesn’t make dick. He has a four-year 5 million dollar contract. He was drafted as a project QB, so it makes perfect sense to sit him for a while. I really liked him as a prospect coming into the draft, and still do now. They’re grooming him and will plug and play him as the situation warrants.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 6:53 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
With the QB market being pretty thin, Smith definitely looks like the 2nd best option after Flynn in FA.
Harbaugh’s smart enough to know not to throw money at him, but some other team might make the mistake.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
Whitehurst is roughly 2nd round money, and he probably has even less of a chance to develop.
We’re not ahead of the 49ers in that until something actually happens this offseason. Until some of our potential energy turns into a real franchise QB possibility, this offseason or someday far away, you have to consider their options better than ours.
Hopefully that happens this offseason and I can join you in pointing the finger at the 49ers QB situation, but right now it’s better than ours.
Whitehurst made much more than a second round pick
Seriously guys, from the top of the 1st onwards draft picks don’t make a lot of money.
We’re certainly not ahead of the 49ers. No way no how. Maybe in some spots. But at quarterback, or as a team? Nah.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 7:05 PM PST up reply actions
I actually meant he was aquired with 2nd round level resources.
I missed the meaning of what he was saying about “2nd round money,” which I interpreted as investment.
The rest we obviously agree on.
Let's not forget 49ers had/have few holes to fill
They could and can still afford to take projects at QB in the 2nd round. Our team was and is still in dire need of playmakers.
Yes, we need a sizable upgrade at QB. Still you don’t reach when your team has so many holes.
Harbaugh had the luxury of taking on a project QB in the second. We are still trying to find either starters for the d-line or upgrades on our o-line. Not to mention a number of matters at LB and receivers.
We are two years behind the 49ers, so says PC/JS on talent acquisition. They will have their run and may improve, while we improve behind them.
Harbaugh took a team with pieces to their potential, though
PC had nowhere near that talent level when he came in
Heresy grows from idleness.
Why get Matt Flynn?
"Also, for what it’s worth, if we get Flynn, New England and Detroit are on the schedule!" - SSreporters
by Corax --Nevermore-- on Jan 26, 2012 8:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
And they were incredibly healthy.
IR# – SEA (16), SF (5)
by Keski on Jan 26, 2012 9:00 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
This right here: the 2nd most unsustainable aspect of the 49ers success: LACK OF INJURIES
Unless I missed something, the biggest injury loss the Niners suffered this season was to Braylon Edwards, a talent they thought so highly of that the team cut him when he got healthy.
Can Kendall freakin’ Hunter take over Frank Gore’s rushing burden if worse came to worse? If Aldon Smith or Justin Smith get hurt, how will San Fran’s defense do when opposing offenses double-team the healthy pass rusher? Can Michael Crabtree be counted on when it counts if Vernon Davis disappears again? If Carlos Rodgers and Donte Whitner so good, why were they cut loose by their previous, shitty teams? (Also, Eli looked a little better throwing the ball in the NFC Title game after Goldston accidentally TKO’d their other cornerback. Juss sayin’.)
by J.L. White on Jan 27, 2012 12:11 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
All true
They lose Smith and Smith, they’re gonna get destroyed with THAT offense
Heresy grows from idleness.
Why get Matt Flynn?
"Also, for what it’s worth, if we get Flynn, New England and Detroit are on the schedule!" - SSreporters
by Corax --Nevermore-- on Jan 27, 2012 12:25 AM PST up reply actions
Seattle had more injury luck than those numbers indicate.
Trufant and Thurmond were the only starters to get hurt, and losing Trufant was addition by subtraction sadly. You can make all those same arguments about Seattle’s defense. Can Atari Bigby take over for Earl Thomas? Can Dexter Davis take over for Chris Clemons? Could Clinton McDonald take over for Brandon Mebane? Can Malcolm Smith take over for Leroy Hill?
And by the way, I think Hunter could definitely take over for Gore. Hunter is awfully good. But could Leon take over for Lynch?
We definitely had a lot better injury luck (on D) this year than last
Last year we lost all of our big guys (Red, Cole, Siavii, Mebane) for extended stretches and there was a clear step-down to the back-ups.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 27, 2012 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, Hunter, he looks to be tough for a while.
Damn so many teams are able to find so many effective runners. Is it just me or has that seemed to be very hard for Seattle for quite some time?
Head of catering.
by jacobstevens on Jan 27, 2012 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
There's a difference between a RB looking good and a RB being able to carry the ball 300+ times like Frank Gore did this season.
No, I don’t think Hunter, all by himself, could have kept so many drives alive (with Alex Smith as his QB) as Gore did, and the Niners “House of Cards” offense would have fallen apart. And I think similarly of Lynch and our offense, which is why I support re-signing him (although, in my opinion, the combo of Forsett and Washington would have held up better than than Hunter/Anthony Dixon).
I don’t think we were “injury lucky” this season; I say we invested in our depth well, and it paid off in spades with our cornerback situation. Are the Niners similarly deep? Who knows; they didn’t suffer any significant injuries.
(Other significiant Seahawks injuries: Russell Okung, James Carpenter, John Moffitt, John Carlson, Sidney Rice; if TJax doesn’t tear/pull/whatever his pec, we win the Browns game, and if didn’t get hurt, I’m fairly certain we win the Bengals game, too.)
There definitely is a difference.
Hunter looks to me like a good, startable RB. I don’t have a lot of confidence in my RB-scouting skills, though.
Head of catering.
by jacobstevens on Jan 27, 2012 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
Gore was actually pretty bad, over the entire year
He needs to be replaced ASAP, he’s very close to done.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 28, 2012 2:22 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you about Gore
but unfortunately they already have the replacement in Hunter. He is seriously elusive and runs with great power for his size.
Smashmouth is the new sexy!
Hunter seems like a Justin Forsett-type
He may not hold up over a full season as a workhorse RB.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 28, 2012 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, probably a Justin Forsett "type", only
better – closer to the MJD end of the spectrum to my eye. We’ll see next year when Gore is cut after the preseason.
Smashmouth is the new sexy!
I always thought Carlos Rogers was pretty good.
Just suffered a bunch of injuries. He previously had questions about his ball skills, kind of like a rich man’s Kelly Jennings in some ways. I didn’t think he’d be as good as he was this year, certainly. I don’t know if it’s repeatable, contract year and all. I think Washington just didn’t re-sign him as a free agent, because of the injuries, but I thought it was a good pickup at the time. Like I said, just didn’t expect it to be this good.
Head of catering.
by jacobstevens on Jan 27, 2012 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
Great Point
And it leans one to think that it wasn’t the talent at wide receiver that was an issue, it was the extremely conservative play calling that helped Alex Smith. I was surprised that the Hawks didn’t grab CK, but then remembered they didn’t have a second round pick to do so.
Live work and breathe like an optimist.
I wonder if we would've ended up with Kaepernick if we'd managed to trade back from the Carpenter pick as we were trying to
Kaepernick was well overdrafted. But that’s a cost you have to swallow for QBs.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
The Hawks have used an aweful lot of draft picks on offense to say this is a defense first team.
In fact, if you look closer,they put an exceptional amount of focus on the offense, atleast from player personel point.
Its just that the defense had more peopel step up when their numebr was called. Not saying Giacomini didnt step it up, but not to the level of Sherman and Wright.
Offensive draft picks
2/3 of our 1st round
1/1 of our 2nd round
1/1 of our 3rd round
so of our first three rounds we have drafted offense every time except once. That seems like offense is important to not only PC but JS too.
If you mean we are a defense first team because we run the ball, I think you have that wrong. Running the ball when you do not have an elite QB is probably pretty smart offense. Infact, I think its better than dealing with picks in the 20s every year.
There are quite a few teams that dont have elite QBs are all of them considered defense first teams?
That's not the whole story though
Like I said, there’s a typical “model” for defensive-minded coaches in the NFL. They don’t ignore offense, but they do tend to focus on the running game and safe, short passing game over building a dynamic offense. That is exactly what Pete has done. Out of those four offensive picks, three were on the offensive line. That’s not atypical of a defensive-minded coach at all.
On the positive side, Pete has shown a legit interest in getting big plays on the offense by adding guys like Rice and Tate. But he hasn’t done enough to convince me whole.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 5:27 PM PST up reply actions
Also, as I've expressed before, I understand playing offense through your strengths and not your weaknesses
I’m just saying, this is a legitimate concern. I’ve more or less bought into the Pete Carroll-era now, but that doesn’t mean he gets a free pass on worrying tendencies.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
I'm worried about the offense too but i have began to build some trust in Carroll's
way of doing things. His mention of acquiring ‘touchdown makers’ also makes me believe he’s intent on improving the offense and knows he needs better quarterback play.
The offensive system we have definately throws the deep ball a lot.
I know he is a defensive guru, but i dont think he is lameduck offensively.
Here is what i think happens.
People hear “strong running game and a game manager” and think he doesn’t know offense. No that doesnt mean you Beekers, but with hearing him talk about game breakers at WR, i dont see him as a offensive stooge. Another point is that we passed 57% of the time, its not the league average, but with a young team and an average QB, I dont think you go “Air Coryell”
Im not saying Pete is infallible, I honestly think with our WR situation, we really should be feeding the ball to Rice more than spread it out, but that is a “Win now” attitude, where Pete may want the ball spread so the younger guys ahve a chance to grow, who knows….
I do know that a premier QB would help, but so would another elite WR.
Pete is building the NFL version of USC.
It’s gonna take another draft of two, but it’s (IMO) gonna work. He’s getting the biggest fastest bestest football players and he’s still got a few positions to fill, but I’m on board.
They’ve figured out a niche in scouting and are exploiting it (people will figure it out so it won’t last forever). They really are a player or two or three away from contending for a super bowl, it’s just that they happen to be really important players that are harder to get the closer you get.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
Maybe
That still doesn’t answer the question this fanpost is about: what do we want on offense, and is it sustainable? I think a lot of people try to prop up the idea of being ahead of the curve in focusing on the rungame, or try to peg the 49ers/Falcons model as desirable. I don’t, I think it’s flawed, and I hope it’s not what Pete is aiming at.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 7:07 PM PST up reply actions
I also disagree with calling the 49ers a "model."
This is Harbaugh & Co’s first season. He’s a passing type of offensive coach, not a run game and defensive type guy. I think he likes balance, but he played to the Niner’s strengths and away from their weaknesses. Crabtree and Braylon Edwards were not a dynamic duo, while other promising depth kept getting hurt. They had almost no recievers. If anything, their passing game was worse off talent-wise than ours, and they also kept in a lot of blockers to protect Alex Smith this season. But their defense and special teams were significantly better than ours, and that took a lot of pressure off of their offense. Not the Harbaugh “model” that we’ll come to know and unless this is the Singletary “model” (I’d say more of a style or vision) it’s mostly just what he inherited. The product of a few coaches before him, and several visions that didn’t work.
Good point
Still, I’m replying to people who see this 49ers year as a working model that the Seahawks are working towards.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 7:23 PM PST up reply actions
I agree the 49ers are not the "model" to follow
But do think a strong run game, and above average passing game can be quite effective.
No, there aren't a model at all.
If anything the Ravens could be considered the model closest to what is being attributed to the niners this season. Or the Texans, due to injuries in the passing game, and they’ve been building the run game and defense that way for a while now.
It takes more than one abbreviated offseason for a set of coaches and a front office to make enough decisions for an outside judgement to be attained on the tendencies of a team like the 49ers. They are at a crossroads, and that may have contributed to their success as much as anything else new that they did this season.
Is he a "passing" coach?
Stanford didn’t beat the Ducks with Luck’s arm in 2009, he did it on the back of Toby Gerhart. In 2010, Luck also relied on a strong run game.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 27, 2012 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
its easy to be considerd a passing coach
when you have phenominal talent at QB.
much harder when you have average or bad talent at the QB spot.
I guess I'll say he's a QB coach.
But he’s not a 60% passing type of coach, seems to like balance. Not what we saw here, he’s no Tom Cable.
Yeah
Unlike Cable, he doesn’t think the forward pass is a fad.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 27, 2012 3:03 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No he is a run first coach
They ran 60 percent of the time at Stanford. Luck lives off of a superior run game and a solid defense.
they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!
No, we're not ahead of the curve with our running game.
It’s all our basketball players on D that’s our niche. I just point out USC because I think full spectrum dominance is the model-and the only thing that I see in common with the niners and Harbrah is making due with what you’ve got.
On offense, what we’re doing (or attempting) is closer to the Texans than anything else. Zone blocking scheme, powerful runners and big + fast receivers and the best QB we can get our hands on.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
by hazbro24 on Jan 26, 2012 7:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I hope so
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 7:52 PM PST up reply actions
Gotta agree with Oliudyen.
Besides Earl Thomas, the defensive fixes came from talent already on the team, late in drafts, or off the street.
Our biggest money FA has been a WR with #1 WR potential, while another “TD maker” was drafted in the 2nd round. We traded more for Lynch and Whitehurst than we spent drafting most of our Pete Carroll drafted defensive starters, and on top of that drafted from the top of the collegiate OL talent pool.
Model-wise, the resources are being spent where they are needed, but the biggest assets to our passing game are clearly Rice and Okung, and in their combined 3 seasons with the team, they’ve missed 17 games, and played a good many more of their 31 games slowed by injuries, including all 9 for Sidney Rice, and several of Okung’s games hobbled by ankle injuries.
If those injuries instead hit Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman, or Thomas and Mebane, this season’s defense looks vastly different. I hate the injury argument/excuse as much as anyone, but when discussing from the Front Office perspective, including resource management and what model being followed, those still have to be accounted for in the team-building sense.
by cashless on Jan 26, 2012 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
One part of the 49er model we should follow is
Having the best defensive player in the NFL.
...and if a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump it's ass when it hopped.
Definitely the single-best. Allen is probably second, or maybe Suggs
That said, the 49ers have the most talent overall on defense in the league. Pretty easily.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 9:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't know.
No doubt Willis is good, and Aldon Smith is emerging. I think Justin Smith is going towards the lower end of his career. Dontae Whitner is alright, but Carlos Rodgers can definitely be beat.
So yeah, they have some talent. But the best talent in the league? Eh.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
Well, which team has a better talent group?
And you forgot Bowman, McDonald and Sopoaga. Bowman is near-pro bowl and young, McDonald is very good and not old, and Sopoaga is a pro bowl level player, if 30 years old.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 9:37 PM PST up reply actions
Oops, forgotten about those. Then yeah they're pretty good (even though I don't want to admit it)
I do think the Texans have one of the better defenses with JJ Watt/Mario (if he resigns), Cushing and Demeco Ryans, and on top of that, two great DBs in Jonathon Jospeh and Kareem Jackson. Also, Broncos with Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, D.J. Williams, Brian Dawkins and Champ.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
Is near pro bowl?
He was an all pro this year, which trumps pro bowl any day of the week
I include tackling in my assesment of defensive prowess.
But ya, Revis can cover.
...and if a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump it's ass when it hopped.
by Side Effects on Jan 26, 2012 9:35 PM PST up reply actions
I suppose
But generally people tend to look at pass-rusher and cover guys for “the best”, simply because they play the most difficult roles and the most important ones to the success of your defense.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 26, 2012 9:38 PM PST up reply actions
Over the last season and a half
Willis has made big strides in improving his interior pass rush skills. We all know about his run crushing abilities. Also, his coverage skills are superior for a lb. He even broke up at least one pass covering Cruuuuuz that would have gone for a big gain last week. And the cherry on top is that he is a phenomenal leader with high character. He is COMPLETE and makes every other player near him better. Oh, and he hits like a truck.
If you can’t tell, I think he’s pretty good at football.
...and if a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump it's ass when it hopped.
oops, reply fail.
...and if a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump it's ass when it hopped.
by Side Effects on Jan 26, 2012 10:12 PM PST up reply actions
I feel the best model to look at is his teams at USC.
He is building an offense with a strong run game. But he is also bringing in play makers at wide receivers/TE’s that will make it easier for a game managing QB to succeed. Rice, Miller, Durham and Lockette are big play receivers who can extend the defense on deep balls. Tate is a receiver that can go the distance every time he gets the ball. BMW and Baldwin are good possession receivers for medium routes. Also McCoy if he can ever learn how to squeeze the charmin.
Point very well made.
And defended, above. I bet you will agree with this: the impact and relevance of running & defense, and this Steelers/49ers model — calling it model for the sake of identifying a thing we can talk about — is not trivial, nor is it unsound. As a replacement for a dynamic passing offense, it’s unfit, though.
There are teams we think of as running & defense, that don’t ignore or neglect the passing game, but the caricature of the teams’ natures makes it easy to forget they can throw pretty well. Like the recent Steelers. Like Carroll’s Trojans. And plenty of others.
The question about whether Carroll & Schneider believe in old school mouthpunching, in the game of attrition, to the extent that their concept of point guard game manager QB is basically get a Tarvalex Smithson and coach him to be cautious and coach the defense to go after the ball, and nothing more is needed, is actually a very tricky thing to answer. Vexingly hard to answer. They give the right lip service publicly, enough to keep from painting themselves into a corner when it comes to the pursuit of a QB, but also enough to seem they don’t neglect the importance of the passing game, but their actions are quite another thing.
We can continue to see their actions through the prism of building the team first, of playing the competition/proactive non-stop game of expanding the talent pool as widely as possible before committing to a QB, of them having higher standards than to just bite the bullet and drafting Dalton. And all of that makes sense. Holding out for Barkley, being Ron Wolf enough to trade up for RGIII, having caught their eye on Kirk Cousins while turning a blind eye to Clausen, Mallett, Flynn, could be indicators of good judgment and great handling of pressure.
But it could also be the very thing you worry about most. That the concept of point guard game manager really is to try to duplicate the 2002 Buccaneers. The public statements and the actions could all fit into that approach, and we know, certainly, they wouldn’t be the first coach or GM to hold fast to this philosophy. They just seem so damn smart that it’s hard to reconcile that with the notion of a total blind spot in the passing game. But it’s definitely possible. I sure hope this damn question is answered soon.
Head of catering.
by jacobstevens on Jan 27, 2012 3:04 PM PST reply actions 6 recs
I hope so too.
The optimist in me tends to see their statements as meaning a QB needs support no matter how good he is. I also believe that. So many “good/great” QB’s have weaknesses that are covered up by the strengths on their offenses, and on a worse team would look just as bad as the more average “never will be great” QB’s. The more a team tries to make their QB bridge the gaps in their offense, the more that is put on his shoulders, the more elite that QB has to be to look decent or good.
It’s possible they are devaluing the QB, but I lean towards believing the goal is to make it a QB-friendly system, and find that guy along the way.
Well put. Its a concern, not yet a criticism.
It’s an important off-season, in that sense.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 28, 2012 2:24 AM PST up reply actions
So, commenting was disabled across the board for like an hour?
I’m assuming I missed the most epic of flame wars.
Head of catering.
Site just went down is all.
I was mid-profundity at the time of course.
"The time has come," the Walrus said, "to talk of many things."
All the sites went down
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 27, 2012 9:19 PM PST up reply actions
Must be that solar flare
SHIT, THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END NOOOOO
Heresy grows from idleness.
Why get Matt Flynn?
"Also, for what it’s worth, if we get Flynn, New England and Detroit are on the schedule!" - SSreporters
by Corax --Nevermore-- on Jan 27, 2012 10:46 PM PST up reply actions
Srsly?
The Ravens and the 49er’s both shouldve and couldve won those games, the 49er’s more so than the Ravens.
The Ravens have won a playoff game 4 years running, breaking records for Flacco and Harbaugh. The Patriots can’t even claim that. Nor the Packers, Steelers, or Giants.
And to be fair, the giants and patriots defense’s have both played better in the playoffs than they have all season, especially the patriots. The Steelers (number 1 defense I believe) lost to Tebow…the Patriots (number 31 I believe) destroyed em.
I think this is the 49ers model, not the Seahawks
Harbaugh was a run first coach in college and he is one now. He ran 63, 63 and 59 percent of the time the last three years in college. PC ran 53, 56 and 54 percent of the time the last three years. PC trusted John David Booty, Mark Sanchez and a freshman version of Matt Barkley more to throw the ball then Harbagh trusted Andrew Luck. I’m not sure if this says more about Harbaugh or Luck, but when at Stanford they were a run first team with a solid defense. He has transferred that to the NFL.
PCs teams were balanced on offense and defense.
I think we are doing the best with what we have, but if I was the 49ers, I would assume that this is their model.
they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!
I would love to dismiss what the 49ers did this year as failure
but if your only measure of success is the Superbowl than being a Seattle sports fan must be excrutiatingly painful. If Seattle could replicate the 49ers season next year with T Jack at the helm I would consider that a success.
If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?
Vince Lombardi
No one should want to dismiss their year as a failure, because that's stupid
The question is more: is it repeatable in the same mold? Not really. Gore is close to done, and this turnover ratio is unsustainable. Lucky for them they got Kaeps.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 29, 2012 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
You are assuming that Kaeps pans out
The advantage of what they have built is that Gore is replaceable and if Kaeps doesn’t pan out the D and the run game can sustain them as an 8-10 win team. Not great, but its a softer landing if your QB gamble fails. Plus I don’t think Harbaugh cares if his QB performs, he is going to run first anyway.
they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!
If he doesn't care how his quarterback performs why would he have drafted Kaepernick at the top of the second?
Saying he doesn't care is too strong
His offensive philosophy uses the run to set up the pass. He doesn’t need a hall of famer to do what he wants. He needs someone who is accurate and doesn’t make mistakes.
they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!
You're probably not far off.
But I do think that Harbaugh has been making the best of his situations as a head coach. They have trouble getting big time skill position players at Stanford, so he went against the grain and built a smash mouth offense. He inherited a similar roster in San Francisco. He’s probably never going to run a Patriots style offense, but the guy was a quarterback.
My question is what does it say about Luck
Is he as good as they say and his skill position guys just weren’t good enough to throw the ball more, or is he a product of a really good run first offense?
they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!
Kaepernick doesn't really seem to fit that mold
He’s more dynamic.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Jan 29, 2012 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
So what are you expecting from them next year?
I imagine a similar year without the long playoff run. I think the Seahawks are a few (2-3) players away from being elite on defense and a quaterback away from being good on offense. I would give the front office another season to find their quaterback if they were able to improve their defense to elite level with one more draft class.
If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?
Vince Lombardi
Special teams play - the 49ers excelled and that is worth replicating
For whatever reason, they nailed it his year. Ironically, special teams is also what ended their post season.
I thought we were on the same trajectory w/ our special teams. We did not perform as well. To many injuries? Curry taking out McCoy is still making me grit teeth.
As for models… I’m a big fan of making special teams a priority in every draft and using it as a tool for developing talent. I don’t know what the 9ers did this year behind the scenes, but damn, their special teams program IS one to model.
they signed/drafted a few key players for special teams
and got Brad Seely as their ST coach from the Browns. He’s had a great impact anywhere he’s gone for special teams.

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