NFL Odds, Week 14: Seahawks vs. Cardinals point spread analysis

Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

‘The Seahawks don't lose at home. The Cardinals don't win anywhere.'

I began last week's post with a quote and look what happened in real time. If it ain't broke, don't fix it so this week I lean to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk for my opening salvo; his Week 14 picks included the above gem. Superstitious? Well, of course I am. I support the Seahawks, for Heavens sake. Just like those players who don't shave until their team loses, I'm now relying on quotes for my first line until we lose and, as I'm sure you're all well aware, it's only weird if it doesn't work.

I will be shaving, through fear of getting the ‘Spanish Archer' (El Bow) at work, but Seattle won't be coming anywhere near close to losing this week... will they? They do venture into uncharted territory on Sunday, entering the game as 10 point favourites, the first time this season they've been fancied to win by double digits.

The closest margin to this one was when they were favoured by 5.5 points at home to the Jets. I'm going to nail my colours to the mast early here and state that I believe Arizona to be worth a punt this week, despite too much evidence to the contrary. It's not that I'm uncomfortable at Seattle being favoured so heavily as I believe the line to be about right. No, it's the black and white truth of being a Seahawks fan. This is hardly the '05 vintage anchored by Jones, Hutchinson and Alexander (the order of importance is er, important and I think that looks right) so I'm loath to back us being asked to give up a TD plus a field goal.

Boy, that about the '05 vintage looks harsh written down, but it is, sadly, the truth. Never again...OK, more than likely, will we ever have a left tackle/left guard tandem as rich in talent together as Walt and Hutch. Preaching to the converted as I am here, as well as indulging myself a little, those were heady days and, aside from beating the Panthers for the NFC Championship, my own personal highlight was setting the alarm for 1:30 a.m. GMT to witness the 42-0 shellacking of the Eagles in Philly on MNF. And it was 42-0 after three quarters. In the snow. Not ‘Tuck Rule' snow, but snow nonetheless.

So, the oldest news in the diary is that Jones and Hutchinson will forever stand alone. Yes, Hutchinson caused outrage in the manner in which he left for Minnesota, but time's a great healer so be it me mellowing with age or just generally being a better person now, I love him all over again.

Why the reminiscing? Because our last great team could soon be replaced by another. If we've already seen what is and what will be the greatest left side of an offensive line in franchise history, then the same can be said of the quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck was Matt Hasselbeck and he eventually deserves a place in the Ring of Honor in my opinion, but, after only twelve games, he was no Russell Wilson. After last Sunday, we've created a monster.

It's been written before, both here and all over Field Gulls, but I will repeat what I wrote in my lead up to the Jets game. It is, once again, tipping my hat to Florio, but he summed up perfectly what epitomises Wilson's game: The kid doesn't get rattled.

I read this week that he's as comfortable on his own 3 yard line as he is on an opponent's 23 yard line, words that ring oh so true. Opinions (facts, really) such as these are hardly earth shattering or steeped in profundity, but Wilson's only just starting to get noticed nationally. Those of us who've witnessed each and every snap he's taken this season know all there is to know about him, but it took an Elway-esque fourth quarter drive, quickly followed by similar feats in overtime in a major city for Wilson to be finally, properly recognised. I couldn't give a toss about him being voted Rookie of the Year as he may as well be voted Wookie of the Year for all that it matters. I tire of message board arguments placing him above or below Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.

Accolades come in the form of championships (and league MVP awards if we're going to split hairs) and I believe that Wilson may just bring a Lombardi back home for us. I seriously doubt it'll happen this year, but I don't care when it happens, as long as it does.

If I may get back to writing about betting on this game, yes, I like the Cardinals and the points. Those of you who take careful note of what I write (and the both of you are close to my heart) will know that I'm wary of teams coming off of emotional wins and where better to start on this one that at home?

On the two occasions this season that the Seahawks have claimed emotional wins, against the Packers and Patriots, they've bombed the following week. Not bombed as in not being motivated for their next games, but they lost in St. Louis and San Francisco respectively. Granted, they did end up covering the spread against the 49ers (by half a point), but it was too close for comfort, not that I gained that much happiness from being quids in, coming up short against the Niners, an outcome that goes down as smoothly as swallowing a football sideways.

W W W W L L L L L L L L. How many teams have done that over their first twelve games in an NFL season? I actually hope somebody's able to tell me, but it's what Seattle faces this Sunday, a team on an eight game losing streak.

Since beginning the season 3-0 ATS, the Cardinals have gone 2-6-1 ever since, covering just twice in nine attempts. However, interestingly, as a road underdog over the season, they're 3-1-1, food for thought for those of you believing the Seahawks are primed to smash Arizona out of sight. In addition, they've covered as road underdogs twice in the last three weeks, against the Falcons and Jets. In fact, last week's cover came despite scoring just six points and going 0 for 15 on third down. Should they replicate that this week, perhaps Seattle will smash Arizona out of sight.

Everything does point to exactly that and not least because the Seahawks are 5-0 at home, both SU and ATS against a team who haven't won since September 30. The Cardinals also bring the league's worst offense (statistically) to town, not the worst week to be without Brandon Browner.

I want to say that I'm after revenge for our Week 1 loss, but it doesn't feel that way. Should we just happen to meet Green Bay in the playoffs, they'll be able to lay claim to revenge. No, this week is about not looking past the Cardinals. That'd be DangeRuss.

Please gamble responsibly.

In addition to contributing here, Rob runs his own blog, Rob's NFL Yard and contributes atThe NFL Injury Report, so make sure you head over to those sites and check out more of his work. Follow @RobDaviesNFL on Twitter | Follow @FieldGulls on Twitter | Like Field Gulls on Facebook

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