Mike Mayock's Positional Rankings: Running Backs
by Danny Kelly on Feb 11, 2012 12:58 PM PST
in 2012 NFL Draft
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PrintThe Seahawks are facing a potential hole at running back if they cannot re-sign Marshawn Lynch. Justin Forsett is a free agent. Michael Robinson is a free agent. That leaves, basically, Leon Washington and a couple practice squad guys - Vai Taua and Tyrell Sutton, in the fold as it stands right now.
Now, I'm guessing that a deal with Lynch will get done or they'll franchise him. But I would not be surprised to see Seattle use one of their early picks this year on a future workhorse. This is a team that wants to run. It's a big part of their identity. I don't really think they're going to rely on a bunch of scrubs to get the job done, it's why they went out and traded for Lynch and why I think they'll continue to address the position going forward, using valuable resources.
For a quick update this afternoon, I wanted to point to Mike Mayock's positional rankings and pass on a few scouting videos. I'll get more in depth on each of these guys as we go along (or Ben will, or Matt will, or Derek will, or we all will), but just wanted to use this as an intro. Mayock is one of the most respected analysts in the business and many feel that if he wanted to, he could go into a career as a front office personnel guy or GM. During the next couple weeks, I'll continue to break down his rankings to give you a better idea of which players to keep an eye on. Here are his top five running backs, as they sat about two weeks ago.
1. Trent Richardson - Alabama
2. David Wilson - Virginia Tech
3. Lamar Miller - Miami (Fla.)
4. Doug Martin - Boise State
5. LaMichael James - Oregon
Trent Richardson is a gimme. He's an elite talent and it's becoming more and more ... plausible? ... that the Seahawks might consider using their first round pick on the Alabama Heisman finalist. The list of players after him is getting a little more murky. David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, and LaMichael James are the guys that Mayock lists, but this is a different order than some other respected analysts. For example, Rob Rang has his top five go Richardson, Miller, Wilson, Martin, then Chris Polk. Regardless, these six are probably the top group, and I'll add a few at the end for good measure. Check out some of the videos below, with big thanks to DraftBreakdown for the excellent scouting videos they put together - Aaron Aloysius, JMPasq, JPDraftJedi, TTN2810, MARI0clp and the whole DraftBreakdown crew.
1. Trent Richardson - Alabama:
2. David Wilson - Virginia Tech:
3. Lamar Miller - Miami (Fla.):
4. Doug Martin - Boise State:
5. LaMichael James - Oregon:
6. Chris Polk, U-Dub:
Honorable Mentions:
Isaiah Pead, Cincinnati:
Darrell Scott, South Florida:
Others: Terrance Ganaway, Tauren Poole. Scouting reports by Field Gulls HERE and HERE.
More soon, stay tuned...
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I hope they draft
someone with a skillset similar to Lynch’s. I personally don’t believe in a “change of pace” running back as a backup. Simply because If your wearing a team down by running through them, why put someone in later to run around them? That sounds weird, but if we are gonna punch a D in the face with our running game from the start, then we should finish the same way.
From what i have heard so far, the 2 backs that seem closest to that are Polk and Richardson. Well not sure about Richardson since i cant watch the scouting videos here at work, but he seems to be a beast from what everyone on here says.
Enter the 37th chamber: BEASTMODE
Players outside of the first 65 picks to post a top-16 season in yardage the past 5 years:
It’s happened 19 times. It looks like only 4 guys outside of the top 65 picks have strung together more than one top-16 season.
2011:Michael Turner (154th), Arian Foster (UDFA),
2010: Jamaal Charles (73), Legarrete Blount (UDFA), Ahmad Bradshaw (250th), Ryan Torain (139th), Peyton Hillis (227th)
2009: Michael Turner (154th), Ryan Grant (UDFA)
2008: Brandon Jacobs (110th), Lance Ball (UDFA), Steve Slaton (89th), Ryan Grant (UDFA), Willie Parker (UDFA),
2007: Brandon Jacobs (110th), Brian Westbrook (91st), Willie Parker (UDFA), Derrick Ward (235th) Justin Fargas (96th)
And before I get accused of cherry-picking, I used the top 65 picks out of habit because of the old draft format, where the 65th pick was usually the first pick of the second day and traded often.
I think that only impacts Shonn Greene, Frank Gore and Kevin Smith.
by SgtSasquatch on Feb 11, 2012 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
Initial thoughts
Richardson is a man-child. Somebody will fall in love. I just don’t think he lasts past the first 10 picks.
David Wilson is the most like Marshawn Lynch in running style. His top end speed is better, but I could see him bulking up and maybe losing a bit of speed. I do love that he returns kicks. On the other hand, I can’t get a feel from the video about how he is in pass pro. I just didn’t much Va. Tech this season.
Doug Martin is probably the most complete back. I wish we had film of him versus Georgia, where he was just as dominant. He has “home run” speed. He runs with power. He catches the ball. He blocks. He plays special teams. I LOVE his game. Staton has Seattle drafting him in the 2nd round the last time he did a two round mock. I’d be jumping up and down if that happened.
Miller is very intriguing. I was surprised to see him catch the ball. One thing to love is that he doesn’t have much tread on the tires.
Polk has always been one of my favorites, but he evidently did not fare well at the Senior Bowl practices.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
I can't think of a single reason for Marshawn Lynch to not be resigned.
Same for Red Bryant. I keep reading mock drafts that have us taking their replacements. All these “in case” scenarios are like " I better pick-up a brazier in case I wake-up with Tits in the morning ".
Agree 100%
The message will be sent to the rest of the team when these two get signed. Work hard, get paid. The NFL may be a business, but these two guys are the heart and soul of their respective sides of the ball, it’s a no-brainer that they get nicely compensated.
Less confident that Hawthorne gets re-signed, I think he’ll want more money than the FO sees appropriate. They’ll let him see what his “market value” is and he’ll get swooped up by a desperate team. Hill should be relatively cheap, and I expect him to be retained and be allowed to compete for his spot with a newcomer.
Not a big David Wilson fan
Although it wasn’t really that video didn’t show a ton of it, when I’ve watched other Wilson games the guy tries to cut to the outside way too much. It’s one of those things that will get you stuffed in the NFL. Other than that he kind of reminds me of Joseph Addai, standard size, good but not elite speed, good but not great ball carrier vision. He just doesn’t do it for me as a higher running back pick.
I'm too important to this team. Big Stein can't be flopping and twitching.
Mike Mayock is a superb analyst
Although sometimes his rankings are kind of hard to figure out. I still remember how he had Gerald McCoy ahead of Ndamukong Suh a couple years ago and thought “really?”… it feels like every third positional ranking he does has a headscratcher early in the order. This is one of those times. I do like Mayock a lot despite that. He’s an awesome and eloquent color commentator, and he’s so detailed in his analysis that he will often produce unique insights into a player. That said, there truly is such a thing as over-analyzing and I think Mayock is a victim of that sometimes in his rankings. He appears to shy away from holistic thinking in his process more than most (aka “this guy just looks the part”) and sometimes that creates blind spots.
The way I see this RB group, Richardson is the clear #1, and Miller is just as clearly the unquestioned #2, barring character concerns for Miller. After that, it tightens up considerably, but I’d probably have Martin #3. I have a hard time arguing with the Ray Rice comps for Martin, and it wouldn’t shock me if he ends up a 1st rounder.
The rest of the list pretty much depends on what you want. Want a fantastic change of pace back who will give you a ton of bang for your buck but will never be a workhorse guy? That’s LaMichael James- who’s more than a speedy back- he’s also a strong inside runner too.
Want a rock solid workhorse ZBS back who has no true weaknesses in his game, has outstanding yards after contact, and is probably the best receiving RB in this class? And has done it consistently for 3 years getting even better each season? That’s Chris Polk. He may not have 1st round level sex appeal, but he will win fans over in the long run.
Want a project RB with big upside? That’s Wilson. His balance is poor, his running instincts are mediocre, and as a result his yards both before and after contact are not what they could be, but he’s a 1st round athlete for the position and has the most room for growth. He’s got pretty good wheels too. You might say he’s the anti-Polk. Less polish, more potential. Mayock has always had a strong bias towards potential which probably explains why he has Wilson so much higher than Polk (and has Floyd as his #2 WR). I have Wilson kinda low, but that said, I think Seattle’s FO will probably rate Wilson about as high as Mayock did (my conjecture- no inside source). Seattle seems to stress potential over polish thus far, and Mayock has been a pretty big fan of Seattle’s drafting under JS/PC.
Terrance Gannaway is a bit over-rated, he kind of reminds me of a poor man’s version of Natrone Means (minus mostly everything that made Means a fun RB). Still, you could do far worse with a 4th round pick at running back.
Isaiah Pead isn’t elite in any way, his appeal is that he’s kind of a “total package” RB like Chris Polk, but Polk is much better overall. Still, Pead is a better than average pickup for a mid-rounder. He’s not a bad emergency option later.
by Kip Earlywine on Feb 11, 2012 9:16 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
My vote goes Lennon Creer
Way late in the draft or as a UDFA.
Generally, I don’t ever see the value in spending a pick in the top 3 rounds on a RB. Round 4-5, you can pick the guy you like (if he projects a future starter) and PC/JS have done very well in that territory so far.
For the Hawks specifically, make a run at a UDFA they like that slips or a young RFA or UFA, since he’s basically depth behind Lynch and will split time with Washington backing Lynch up. I think 6th round is as early as they should go at RB this year with the value they’ve been able to get out of the midround picks.
My preference is to skip RB in this draft and find a UDFA, UFA, or RFA unless it’s Richardson. Richardson is special, everyone else is about equal given the good coaching they’ll get and the opportunities they’ll get in this running scheme. Polk has elite instincts and passion though – closest resemlance to Lynch in this class (if that’s what you want from a backup). Difference is, Richardson is the rare RB worth a top-15 pick; the team could adapt the offense to feature two star RBs and create something unique offensively. Polk and everyone else mentioned are not worth the cost of a potential starter at another position because they would simply back-up Lynch.
Correct or not, Seattle's FO places more value in RB draft position than that
They gave up 3rd round value for Lynch, who was formerly a decently high first round pick (and a similar player to Richardson coming out of college). Tom Cable’s very first draft pick as head coach was a RB at #4 overall. My lips are sealed to the insider specifics I’ve heard, but let me just say right now that Seattle won’t be adding a RB in the late rounds or UDFA this year. RB is going to be one of the team’s bigger priorities in the draft, even if they franchise or extend Lynch.
Normally, I’m with you, for what its worth. If you are willing to settle for a RB with 4.6 speed, there is almost always good talent that goes undrafted. If you grab bag enough late round RBs, it won’t take long before you find the next success story. So much of a running back success is just chemistry, and that’s very tough to judge without taking a test drive.
That said, RBs are like every other position, the earlier you take one, the more likely they pan out and the more likely they will be pro-bowlers or Hall of Famers. This is a very good year to consider RB in rounds 1-3. I’m normally a fan of drafting RBs late, but if the team is going to draft one early, this is a good year to do it, in my opinion.
by Kip Earlywine on Feb 12, 2012 3:20 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I hope you are right.
While I do love the underdog and late round approach for many positions. RB is critical to this team and we don’t have the needed depth right now. Normally, the late round approach seems to work for a few teams, you and HI Hawk already covered… It hasn’t worked out well for us. Save Lynch, our RB approach has not been good for almost a decade; dating back to SA’s signing.
We need TD makers now. I’m ok if there is one high in the draft and we get him b/c he’s the highest rated player on the board when we pick.
I meant, except for Lynch and SA - every other RB has not been good.
Both are RB’s w/ higher draft capitol when we acquired.
My order would be...
Richarson, Martin, Pead, Polk
My dream draft is 3-tech, QB, Polk, with tradebacks in one and two
Picking up a couple of extra 4-5 picks. The 3-tech could be a DE instead, based on what’s available.
they took turns pissing into the bitch's ocular cavities.
This way to the cafeteria!
I'd really like to get one of Miller, Wilson, or Polk in the middle rounds.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 12, 2012 4:41 AM PST reply actions
Terrance Gannaway Late
I have jumped on this guys bandwagon after watching him destroy UW. He would be a perfect change of pace back as a bruiser. Marshawn is a hard runner and keeps his legs moving, but Gannaway is the kind of guy who will lower his shoulders and go through people. He doesn’t have world class speed, I see him like Brandon Jacobs 2.0 when he was a wrecking machine. Gannaway will be the new and improved version of Juggernaut and I’d love for Seattle to get him in the 6th or 7th if he is still there.
Today has been a day where I thought more about free agency then the draft. Seattle’s needs are there, it’s clear as day. It all depends on what Carroll and Schneider can do in the free agency pool before we all truly know the direction the team will be headed in April. I am very anxious to see who is signed, or even targeted.
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