NFL Salary Cap: Top Teams In Terms of Cap Space & Estimating Where the Seahawks Check-In
by Davis Hsu on Feb 14, 2012 7:48 AM PST
in Building a Champion
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PrintOn the John Clayton Radio Show on Saturday (Feb 11th, 2012), the Professor threw out a number - he said that the Seahawks had $34.8M in Salary Cap Room for 2012.
Mr. Clayton wrote an article for ESPN on Monday, explaining how 30 of the 32 NFL teams "rolled over" their cap room from 2011 to 2012. Apparently, per Andrew Brandt. this is part of the new CBA - that teams can roll over their remaining cap into the next year. Apparently there is no downside to this, even in 2013 when the new salary cap floor goes into effect - the min cash spend of 89% is tied to announced cap NFL-wide, not adjusted per rollover.
The Seahawks were not in the top five teams in terms of salary cap room for 2012 - those were JAX, CIN, KCC, TB, and WAS. These teams had anywhere from $45M to $63M in room.
The Seahawks will be close to these "leaders" once they cut or restructure Marcus Trufant. He restructured his deal for 2011, but his 2012 contract is still in effect. That contract called for a base salary of $7.2M and his signing bonus when the deal was struck was $10M. That $10M is spread out over the life of the deal ($1.67M on top of the base salary for cap purposes).
I checked in with Brian McIntyre via Twitter and he confirmed that the Seahawks $34.M is most definitely "post-conversion" but does include Trufant's 2012 salary/bonus.
Since this is amateur salary cap, I don't know what cutting Trufant does in terms of the acceleration of the signing bonus and dead money and all of that. What I do know is that once they cut Trufant - the Seahawks will clear an estimated $7M in cap room.
Rough math: once this happens, the Seahawks will have about $42M in cap room.
I haven't seen how Clayton and ESPN builds these numbers, but I have to believe they have factored in Sidney Rice's cap number increase from $3.2M in 2011 to $8.2M in 2012, as well as Zach Miller's cap bounce from $3.0M to $7.0M. This should all be factored into the $34.8M - which we have now converted to $42M.
Where is this money going to go? These are rough cut cap estimates:
-$6M The Draft ($2.5M to the 1st rd pick and $3.5M to everyone else)
-$8M Marshawn Lynch (assume no deal gets done and he get's franchised at $7.7M)
-$5M Red Bryant (Brandon Mebane money)
-$3M David Hawthorne (I don't think it will be this high, could see more $2M, but give some cushion)
-$2M Mike Robinson (He made $1.35M last year and went to the Pro Bowl)
-$1M Paul McQuistan (He may or may not re-sign-but think of this as a placeholder for this type of depth)
-$2M Breno Giacomini (I am assuming Clayton did not include this - if he did - my apologies)
Subtotal =$27M
______________________________
Again, the Seahawks have about $42M in room, so there is only about $15M left once you re-sign your top guys. Can you really see Leroy Hill getting a modest deal? I don't.
So, what's left? About $15M - and that is not enough for two big money free agents, unless you structured their 2012 base salaries extremely low (like Miller and Rice in 2011).
Is there enough money for Peyton Manning and Mario Williams? Uh, it might not even enough money for Mario Williams, folks. Matt Flynn and Mario Williams? Nuh uh - even if you cut Tarvaris and save $4M, I can't see $19M getting both Flynn and Mario getting done - can you?
So, basically there is room for:
(A) Two big FA if structured creatively (don't count on it - but if two "stars" took low base salary in 2012 maybe)
(B) Two modest deals
(C) One big monster deal
(D) Two modest deals and leave some space for later
Here is the problem with option A - if these two stars took that route - they would demand a big jump in pay in 2013, which could force cap problems later.
What do I think the Seahawks will do? Gut says two modest deals and leave some cap room open for 2012, that they can roll into 2013 and have flexibility over the next year or so for other opportunities/extensions.
In 2013 - there is only one key player that I see coming due on his deal - Max Unger. The second key player would be Alan Branch. The reason the Seahawks need cap room in 2013 is to begin extensions for players that come due in 2014 and 2015 (huge wave). Again, these are the Kam Chancellors, Doug Baldwins and many more. These late round gems won't be the NFL's best value's forever.
I'll follow up on this soon.
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Those numbers
Make me think twice about Lynch and Red. Let’s hope ths front office can negotiate more CAP friendly deals for those two.
by GnarlyHawk on Feb 14, 2012 8:06 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Here's another way to look at Lynch's possible contract.
Let’s say he signs a 5-year, $40 million contract (not saying he’ll actually get this much, but it’s a nice, round number), along with a $10 million signing bonus (again, a round number that isn’t too far-fetched). First thing you do is take that signing bonus and split it up evenly throughout the 5 years – even though Marshawn gets all of it up front — so that $2 million is counted against the cap for 2012 through 2016. Then you take the 1st year’s normal salary, and let’s say you do want to make a splash in free agency, so that salary is only $2 million (but Marshawn actually collects $12 million).
Now you have 4 years and $28 million left over, which averages out to $7 million a season, plus the $2 million cap hit that equals $9 million. Of course most contracts tend to be back loaded, so instead of a $7 million salary every year, it would more likely go 6-6-7-9 (or something close to that). Let us also remember that no NFL contracts are 100% guaranteed, and guaranteed money is all we really have to worry about.
So, we’ve re-signed Marshawn at half the cost (for 2012), have an extra $4 million to play around with, and his subsequent contract years are not too far above the $8 million average.
by J.L. White on Feb 14, 2012 3:37 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
So the take away is we can't afford Manning or Flynn in addition to a (hopefully defensive) top tier free agent?
Does that mean we’d have to draft a quarterback? Because I forget what that feels like…
Why would anyone pay Flynn or Manning more than 10 million?
Flynn had one good game on a team that could have gone to the superbowl. He looked good, but so did other QBs like Yates. Don’t get me wrong, I like him and think he should get his shot, but do you really think anyone is going to pay a fortune for him? I don’t. Let Carson Palmer be a cautionary tale told around the water cooler at GM conventions.
Flynn should probably be paid 4-6 million with bonuses for performance up to 10 million. I f he gets more than that, he should consider himself lucky.
As for Manning – you roll the dice on him. He hasn’t rehabbed well, and even if he does come back – he is one hard hit away from being a quadraplegic. He is probably worth 2 million a year, with a bonus for every game he plays. That’s all.
Maybe someone will take that chance on him. There is a higher probability that Manning either quits on his own or is never cleared to play. At 36 he has already had his career, it’s just the sad reality, most players don’t last past 30 and certainly not past 35.
Manning's neck is completely healed, he is medically cleared to play by his neck surgeon,
and all medical evidence would suggest that he is at no significant increased risk of catastrophic neck injury than any other player, although more likely to herniate disks at adjacent levels and more likely to have chronic degenerative disease in his later years. All players are one unlucky hit away from quadriplegia, but don’t overdramatize Manning’s situation. Other players in the league have had similar neck surgery for bad “neck stingers” and none have had catastrophic injury, and most of those players are in every play contact situations which are not protected by league rules.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7534274/sources-peyton-manning-medically-cleared-resume-nfl-career
http://www.aaos.org/news/aaosnow/nov10/clinical2.asp
Whether the damage to the nerve in his arm is reversible or able to be compensated for is another question, and it seems like conflicting reports come out every day about whether it looks good or bad. Irreversible damage to the nerve is not life threatening.
Smashmouth is the new sexy!
by pqlqi on Feb 14, 2012 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Manning has been officially cleared to play in 2012
Per the Indianapolis Colts Medical Staff.
And he has told the media he’s willing to sign a incentive-laden deal based on fames played.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
by EequalsMc2 on Feb 14, 2012 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I actually don't think he has been cleared by the Colts staff.
Like pqlqi says above, he has been cleared by his personal staff. Where did you hear he has been cleared by the Colts staff?
Eternally looking forward to someone making a Seahawks song based off of Lil' Jon's "Shots" song named "Hawks!"
Well if the doctor who made the initial surgery clears him,
chances are the other staff will do so too.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
Maybe somebody takes a chance on him?
Teams are lined up already to bid for his services.
70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.
Well, I think Flynn will get closer to 6 million than 4
But I was more saying I think it would be a good thing to spend that draft money on a QB, and nab Mario Williams or someone like that.
I’m with you on Manning, someone will pay him, but I hope it’s not us…
It's simple Supply and Demand economics.
There are more teams that could use a Franchise QB than there are Franchise QBs; once you also consider the huge, HUGE correlation between elite quarterback play and wins, then you realize why the price could go very high.
I’m not certain that Matt Flynn will be an elite QB, but all it takes is one team, juuuuuuuuuuuust one team to sniff greatness in him, and a $50 million+ contract doesn’t seem so implausible.
I'm guessing
That Arizona and Oakland won’t be picking him! Ha ha ha, I say good luck to him,. It’s hard to play up to a $50 million dollar contract.
I'm pretty sure
that if we were to sign Mario Williams, then we wouldn’t resign Red Bryant which means we would have that extra 5 million in cap space.
I agree
And apart from that, I’m not sure that Red Bryant is wort $5m. If he could slide inside and provide a pass rush then maybe, but since he hasn’t demonstrated that ability I think $5m is too much for a two down player.
I think the intriguing question is
are we better off spending the extra money on Mario Williams and improving our pass rush significantly or sign Red at much cheaper rate. We wouldn’t have the improved pass rush, but we would likely have a slightly better run defense. Are we better off improving the pass rush with Mario Williams, or resign Red for much less and add another player such as a linebacker?
I love Red Bryant
But there are a lot of good DT in this draft, all the way down to the seventh round. Premium will be on DE and CB.
Red Bryant has been seen by teammated as a leader on the defense.
That’s a tough position to replace.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
I love the idea of M. Williams but he doesnt seem to fit the PCJS FA motif.
I could definitely see them going after Arvill given his age and role.
But even then I don’t see a DE displacing Red.
The D is on the rise and going away from the 5 tech/ Leo combo seems to be a significant shift in defensive philosophy. It also does away with the schemes inherent cost efficiencies.
A not broken why fix it scenario.
by vertigoman on Feb 14, 2012 9:31 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
For someone as good as Mario Williams, you FIND a place for him (or change the defense).
Let’s remember that the Texans switched to a 3-4 defense last season and, before he got hurt fairly early in the season, Williams already had 5 sacks. If we signed him, we’d figure something out.
by J.L. White on Feb 14, 2012 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
It's broken, that's why a pass rusher is our first priority behind quarterback.
And signing Red to a large contract also does away withe the cost efficiencies.
He fits need and MO.
Signing a young guy coming off a rookie contract (Miller, Rice).
In the final pressed of the year, Carroll stressed multiple times the need to improve pass rush.
Where the deal is likely to fall apart is the $$$. I don’t think Pete and John will pay Mario what he can likely command.
Always up for some Twitter action @nandron. I only talk NW sports, though.
He had a torn pec muscle.
It will heal just fine. He is going to get $14 million per year. Mostly likely he will want a 6 or 7 year deal. It think that is too rich for us.
And more ...
Not only do we save the $5 million on Red but we no longer need the 3rd down rush specialist like Raheem Brock ($1M). So you save a million or two there, too, and a roster spot. Mario Williams ought to be a high priorty but I think it will be someone like Cliff Avril instead.
Draftng a RB in round two would seem to be a priority, also. We cannot afford to have Lynch injured and we need some contract leverage next year.
Clayton doesn’t make it clear whether the $20 million in free agents we have are included or excluded from his numbers. If they are excluded then I find if hard to believe our team payroll is that high because we don’t have many high priced players on the roster. Is he suggesting we aren’t going to re-sign our kicker Steven Hauschka? I doubt it.
http://www.theolympian.com/2012/01/03/1933875/hawks-go-from-beast-mode-to-wait.html
by Patches Pal on Feb 14, 2012 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
The only way he would report cap space is
(salary cap) – (sum of salaries for players under contract for 2012)…
the questions come up mostly around Breno I think. I have a more complete summary of my thoughts below
Smashmouth is the new sexy!
53 players
minus the 22 free agents seems to imply that the 31 remaining guys are getting paid about $85 million. I don’t see where the money is going because we only have Sidney Rice and Zack Miller making premium money. Everybody else including our QB’s are rather cheap.
by Patches Pal on Feb 14, 2012 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
Okung, Gallery, Thomas, BMW, Branch, Mebane
All make pretty decent coin.
Instead of signing Mario
they could just draft Coples and pay him a lot less. Similar players, but Coples may be more versatile despite a probably gap in polish.
Coples is also somewhat of a headcase.
If I’m looking at the draft, I prefer Upshaw.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
I may be messed up but I'm confused why it's $27 million
If 7 drafted rookies make the team they will replace 7 guys already on the team. Those 7 guys leaving will save a huge chunk, maybe even more than the rookies cost.
And as for our free agents, wouldn’t it be the difference between their new salary and their old salary that would affect the cap? Right now it looks as if you’re counting the entire new salary and not the difference.
He did say he's going off Clayton's numbers
So I’d think Hsu is assuming Clayton did his homework.
Last years salary has nothing to do with this years cap. Ie: right now Lynch’s cap number is 0.
If they sign him for 8 per then 8 minus 0 is still 8.
by vertigoman on Feb 14, 2012 9:48 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
We don't know exactly what Clayton calculated, but he is generally reliable on known facts
But if we make the following assumptions:
Salary cap is based on 53 man roster, but at the end of the last season we had a 53 man roster, plus 16 players on IR – for a total of 69 players under contract on the last day of the 2011 season. We have 22 FA (2 exclusive rights, 2 restricted) entering the 2012 season, meaning that Clayton’s calculation of 34 million in cap space is based on the salaries of the remaining 47 (48 if he counted Breno) players who are under contract in 2012 (I am not sure if he included the exclusive rights FAs [Clinton McDonald and Kenard Cox] who would be around 1.2-1.5 million in salary).
In response to Bobbyj0708, I agree with the initial thought you had that the rookies would be displacing similar salaries and typically wouldn’t be counted. But because our 2012 roster is short 5 players right now, the draft class will essentially replace only a single (and likely league minimum) salary and 5 empty $0 roster spots, and thus will still subtract around 6 million from that 34 million.
Overall, the estimates for the cost of our FA resignings seem a little conservative, and that is reasonable given how much we paid Rice and Miller. I think we resign Marshawn for less than 7 million a year; all the talk about RBs being fungible, contract year performance, eccentric personality, imperfect commercial image will lower his marketability just a little – Ahmad Bradshaw signed a 4 year extension for 18 million, and I don’t think the perception is that Lynch is worth twice as much as Bradshaw. I think Bryant takes less than Mebane if he stays in Seattle. The LBs are the wildcards in my thoughts and while I think they are both JAGs, maybe they are worth more than my perception.
nice summary of FAs with years in league and 2011 salary:
http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/2012/01/03/morning-links-seahawks-free-agents/
Smashmouth is the new sexy!
good question
I think in Clayton’s number all the players like Carlson, Forsett, Hill, Hawthorne, Bigby, Brock and the like are not in the 2012 cap figure because they have no contract.
Now- I believe when you calculate the cap- the team has to take the top 53 most expensive contracts (right now this may include some of the “practice squad and futures” type guys.
The drafted players will replace some of these practice squad type players and they do make a bit more money (perhaps $1.5M more for 6-7 players?)- so that is a very good point- there may be an additional $2M worth of room in this cap because some of these guys will be cut for drafted players.
The first round contract will be an “add” tho.
Davis Hsu
A ton of thanks for putting this together and I really mean that. Not just lip service !
I spent half the afternoon Sunday trying to get an idea where the Seahawks stand. Not having a known up to date source all I did was confuse myself. Now all I want to know is how the hell Washington has more room than the Seahawks. I’ve always thought of them as being like the drunk guy at the club spending his pay check on the ugly girls.
by Richard fg7 on Feb 14, 2012 12:04 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
as an aside, spotrac.com has an incomplete listing of seahawks contracts that gives a decent overview
but seems to have some inaccuracies, and is likely only good for a quick glance to ballpark the distribution of monies. If Clayton is correct about the cap and the hawks cap space (including the rollover), there seems to be around $15-30 million in salary missing (7-8 million for the Trufant error, depending on signing bonus ramifications):
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/cap-hit/
they list Trufant as an UFA, when in fact his contract extends through 2013 season. Baldwin is listed as an RFA, as are a number of other players who are not FAs of any type. There are also 10 players missing from the list.
Smashmouth is the new sexy!
2011 salaries- http://www.sportscity.com/NFL/Seattle-Seahawks-Salaries 2012 projected cap is around 123 mil, so where does the available cap space come from? Makes no sense.
Obey gravity....it's the law
The numbers on that website are all screwed up
It has us paying Locklear $5.6M and Hill $4.5M in salary for 2011. There may have been some dead money on their contracts but neither was getting a salary anywhere close to those values. It’s also missing Zach Miller, Brandon Mebane and Sidney Rice.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Feb 14, 2012 4:08 PM PST up reply actions
I am utterly amazed that this draft will only cost us $6.000.000.
I’m not contradicting your figures, just shocked.
Draft picks are cheap
Christian Ponder (1.12 last year) is making $10.5M over 4 years
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6433/christian-ponder
Titus Young (2.12) is making $4.5M over 4 years.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6533/titus-young
Greg Romeus (7.22) is making $2M over 4 years.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6727/greg-romeus
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Feb 14, 2012 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, new CBA.
I knew they were cheaper, but damn.
It mostly affected the contracts of the top 15 or 20 players
For example:
Knowshon Moreno (1.12 in 2009) signed a contract for $16.7M over 5 years.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5163/knowshon-moreno
Clint Sintim (2.13 in 2009) signed a contract for $3.4M over 4 years.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5216/player?r=1
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Feb 14, 2012 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
$45 million budget.
If you’re going to omit Hill, Carlson, etc, Hawthorne doesn’t belong in your calculations, either.
No way Red Bryant will be offered $5 million
And if that’s what he demands, let him walk. Guy can’t rush the passer to save his life. He’ll receive only moderate interest due to his severe limitation.
He should take $2.5 million with a GD smile on his face.
Always up for some Twitter action @nandron. I only talk NW sports, though.
He'll receive quite a bit of interest because he's a 3-4 end.
But he also has a very strong attachment and desire to stay in Seattle, so it shouldn’t be much and it shouldn’t take too much longer.
Head of catering.
by jacobstevens on Feb 15, 2012 7:08 AM PST up reply actions
Ya but he's not the one driving the bus it just has his name on it.
It’s the agents that drag these things out and squeeze every last nickle out of the teams who in turn pass it on to us.
Hawks Cap Room
I’m still struggling with how the $35M can include the $21 carry-forward. So with the contracts falling off the books, their cap dedication is still going up by $7Mill (35 Mil – 21 mil carry-forward = 14 Mil under in ’12…which is $7 mill less than their ’11 cap gap). Yes, a few players got bumps, but they have $23 Mil coming off the books.
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