A Mock Draft (at least one pick is right!)
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 15, 2012 10:32 AM PST
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PrintSup Field Gulls.
So, it's the offseason and there isn't any football. I'm confused and scared and I've even started watching NBA games :(
Out of that confusion arose a need for me to compensate for that lack of football...and a mock draft was born! It follows! Mock drafting* was pretty fun for a while! I included trades and I was playing GM for every team and then I got to the 22nd pick and I got bored. I hope that boredom doesn't show up.
*My drafting protocol was: 1) research each team's schemes, 2) figure out their needs, 3) draft players accordingly.
Seahawks-relevant blurb: Coples, Upshaw, and Still all get picked before Seattle's turn. That saddened me because I feel that any of those 3 would provide an upgrade to our front seven. Who to take, ahhhh Trent Richardson has fallen <3!!!! For a moment it looks as though my dream of Richardson and Lynch being OURS has come true. Me and Pete Carroll were so happy. Then Schneider comes in and blows everything up - he trades the 11th pick (we won the coin toss in my head) to Cincinnati for their 21st selection and a 2013 first rounder. With the 21st pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select...
Dontari Poe!!!
Wait. Who the fuck is he?!?! He's really strong and really big (he weighs 350 lbs and he can power-clean 400 pounds, bench press 500 pounds and squat 700). He projects as a 3-4 NT, but like Phil Taylor in 2009 or something, who was the #1 NT and went to the 4-3 Browns, he has the nimble footwork to play tackle in Seattle's 4-3 hybrid. Poe is a good bet to take up two blockers, and two gaps, a majority of the time. He should help free up the LBs and his fellow linemen and maybe he could even play some 5-technique! Ha! A 350 lb man coming off the edge! He did play on the outside a bit for Memphis, so it's possible, maybe.
Poe is not necessarily who I want Seattle to pick. I could just see Seattle possibly making this pick. Anyway, the mock:
1 - IND: Luck, Andrew - QB - Stanford
...
2 - STL: Blackmon, Justin - WR - Oklahoma State
Sam Bradford needs weapons. He struggled in his 2nd year and the addition of Blackmon would potentially give him an elite receiving core to throw to (assuming they resign Lloyd).
3 - CLE: Griffin, Robert - QB - Baylor
TRADE: Cleveland moves up a spot to assure that Washington cannot steal their QBOTF. One spot costs them their 3rd rounder. I disagreed with the trade chart here.
4 - MIN: Kalil, Matt - OT - USC
Minnesota is ecstatic to pick up a 3rd rounder from Cleveland and still get the best offensive lineman in the draft.
5 - TB: Claiborne, Morris - CB - LSU
The Buccaneers are lacking at corner. Claiborne could fix that. (That said, they, as a team, had 23 sacks last year. 23. Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield had 23 sacks for the Vikings. They need quality depth along the defensive line and a DE/DT/LB pick would not be surprising here.)
6 - WAS: Reiff, Riley - OT - Iowa
With the two QBs off the board, the Redskins settle for the potential to have bookend tackles for years to come.
7 - BUF: Coples, Quinton - DE - North Carolina
TRADE: Buffalo's front office sees two teams ahead of them with the potential to grab Coples and they make the decision to trade up. All of a sudden, Buffalo has a dangerous duo in Dareus and Coples.
8 - MIA: Upshaw, Courtney - ILB - Alabama
Miami wins the imaginary coin toss and elects to add to their defense with a solid, all-around LB who could potentially play some defensive end in Miami's new 4-3.
9 - CAR: Still, Devon - DT - Penn State
The Panthers were horrid on defense in 2011. They draft Still to help out the front seven, which adds a versatile, pass-rushing piece that could be key to turning the defense around.
10 - JAX: Wright, Kendall - WR - Baylor
Jacksonville needs to get someone for Gabbert to throw to. Anyone. Wright's combination of blazing speed and sure hands is too much to pass up.
11 - CIN: Richardson, Trent - RB - Alabama
TRADE: Seattle wins the coin toss and elects to trade down. CIN gives up their 2013 1st rounder as well as the 21st selection to get the best player left on the board -- Trent Richardson.
12 - KC: DeCastro, David - OG - Stanford
The Chiefs would have loved for Richardson to fall into their laps. It is not meant to be however, and they settle for DeCastro.
13 - ARI: Martin, Jonathan - OT - Stanford
The Cardinals need help all over their offensive offensive line (not a typo). They would have loved to get DeCastro, but hey end up with his teammate.
14 - DAL: Kirkpatrick, Dre - CB - Alabama
The Cowboys need a good CB. Dre Kirkpatrick is a CB. A good one too.
15 - PHI: Floyd, Michael - WR - Notre Dame
Philly's biggest need is at LB. Andy Reid refuses to take a LB in the 1st round and instead opts for the Notre Dame product.
16 - NYJ: Barron, Mark - SS - Alabama
The Jets grab the best safety in the draft. Barron should be able to make an immediate impact on an already good defense.
17 - CIN: Jenkins, Janoris - CB - North Alabama
Cincinnati addressed one need with their trade up and selection of Richardson. Jenkins is a good value-and-need pick here.
18 - SD: Ingram, Melvin - DE - South Carolina
The Chargers add to their defense for the 2nd year in a row, with Melvin Ingram, which could eventually help out their lacking pass-rush (32 sacks in 2011).
19 - DEN: Brockers, Michael - DT - LSU
TRADE: The Broncos love that Brockers is still on the board and they make the move that could be necessary to assure they get him. Brockers is versatile and has the potential to play the 5-technique, the 3 tech, and/or the 1 tech in Denver's scheme.
20 - TEN: Glenn, Cordy - OG - Georgia
The Titans get, arguably, the 2nd best interior lineman in the draft with Glenn.
21 - SEA: Poe, Dontari - DT - Memphis
Poe is a freakish big-man and would give Seattle needed depth along the defensive line. Like Brockers, he could potentially play various positions in Seattle's scheme, but he is most likely at home at the 1 technique.
22 - CLE: Jones, Dwight - WR - North Carolina
At 6'4", 225 lbs with plus speed and the potential to be the best receiver in the class, Holmgren has found a new toy for his new QB.
23 - DET: Adams, Mike - OT - Ohio State
Mike Adams is a high-ceiling, low-floor offensive line prospect, and Detroit may gamble with him.
24 - PIT: Kuechly, Luke - LB - Boston College
Why on earth would the Steelers, of all teams, draft an inside linebacker? Cap casulties, BPA, and, well, that's it.
25 - CHI: Mercilus, Whitney - DE - Illinois
I don't have anything to say about this pick.
26 - HOU: Ta'amu, Alameda - DT - Washington
The Texans grab the massive Ta'amu to play NT in Wade Phillips' 3-4 hybrid.
27 - NE: Jeffery, Alshon - WR - South Carolina
SO MANY WIDE RECEIVERS
28 - NE: Cox, Fletcher - DT - Mississippi State
TRADE: The Packers trade back into the 2nd round with NE. The Packers pick up the 48th, 63rd, and 126th picks and NE gets an extremely athletic defensive lineman to possibly help out the defense. That defense is bad. It is hard to fix a bad defense.
29 - BAL: Brown, Zach - OLB - North Carolina
He's one of those low-floor guys. He's a solid, but not spectacular LB who as versatile as he is athletic.
30 - SF: Sanu, Mohamed - WR - Rutgers
SO MANY WIDE RECEIVERS
31 - NE: Perry, Nick - DE - USC
Stupid NE with 3 first round picks.
32 - NYG: Fleener, Coby - TE - Stanford
The champs go for value here.
Oh god. Over 1300 words. I could have wrote my gen. ed. paper that was due last Thursday, or slept. I could have slept more!
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where would you place vontaze burfict?
cause if this is the draft i would love him in the second (and this draft in general!!!) though mecilus over poe i think.
I'm thinking Burflict will go in the bottom half of the 1st or the top half of the 2nd
If Seattle decides to trade back, and he is high on their board, it’s likely they could get him. He may very well be gone by Seattle’s 2nd round pick though.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 16, 2012 2:08 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Rather see trade with Cincy for 17 and 53 vs. 2013 1st rounder
We need more picks in this draft, and Cincy could very well go deep in the playoffs next year leaving us a very late 1st round pick. I like the Poe pick though, hadn’t really considered him up to now.
If Seattle doesn't solve the QB position through FA or the draft, I think they should consider trying to acquire a 2013 1st rounder.
With Baltimore and Pittsburgh in Cincinnati’s division and their more difficult 2012 schedule, I think they would be a good team to acquire that 1st rounder from. If that pick turns out to be in the middle of the round and Seattle is picking in the 15-28 range 32nd, that extra 1st rounder would make a potential trade up to grab the #2 QB* a little easier.
*The #2 QB in the 2013 draft might be garbage.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 16, 2012 3:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for sharing
Im curious though, about the Rams.
The Rams have some very nice talent on their team, probably about 10 really good players and about 10 above average players, that leaves about 33 below average players, what would stop them from trading down to stock pile picks to fill some of those needs?
There's a good chance it just doesn't happen that way
I’m with you on that being a good idea though. The Rams should most certainly trade down. It’s just smart. I completely disagree about there being 20 above-average players on their team though.
But, the draft is completely unpredictable – haha I just did a mock draft – and what if CLE/WAS/whoever decides it’s not worth it to trade up and assure they get RG3? The Rams would probably have a below market value trade offer to consider; so, at that point, even if they did want to trade down, there would not be a worthy offer on the table. And who knows, they might be insane and be deadset on selecting Blackmon/whomever at #2
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 16, 2012 2:33 PM PST up reply actions
I dunno about the Poe pick.
We would be picking him to be doing the job that Mebane is already doing. DT is a position of need for us but it needs to be a penetrating 3 technique, not another run-stuffing 2 gapper designed to try and push the line.
Eternally looking forward to someone making a Seahawks song based off of Lil' Jon's "Shots" song named "Hawks!"
I somewhat agree.
It’s just that I could see Seattle making this pick if they felt he was the best player, in terms of talent, left on the board. It would give them increased flexibility with the defensive line, and you never can have enough talented defensive linemen.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 17, 2012 7:03 AM PST up reply actions
A first round pick to move down from 11 to 21?
That seems like a lot. Is it per someone’s chart?
by djafrot on Feb 18, 2012 8:23 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Yeah, the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart.
The 11th is worth 1,250 points (the 12th is worth 1,200). A 21st is worth 800 and a 2013 1st is worth about 415 (middle of the 2nd value).
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 18, 2012 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
If Trent Richardson is available
There is no way they trade back with Richardson available to them. PC said he wants a TD maker and Richardson could be the Marshawn of the future, speed, power and no quit. He also can catch out of the backfield as well as showing his ability to be a one cut runner. Since we run the ball so much, we need someone that can spell Beast Mode without a significant drop off in performance and Richardson offers that.
If they are in position to take Richardson, I think they grab him in the first, take a QB in the 2nd/3rd and an DE/DT(3 tech) in 3rd/2nd. Those two position could flip depending on who is available.
On the flip side, we could also pull a completely off the wall RFA move and make a significant offer to Arian Foster, assuming he isn’t franchised. The poison pill doesn’t exist anymore, but the Texans lack the cap space to match a huge offer if we wanted to give up a first rounder and some serious $. Foster is one of the few players even somewhat available that could be plugged into our ZBS and be successful. While Marshawn and Arian are about the same age, arguably Marshawn has had a lot more wear and tear.
My take on that "TD maker" statement
I thought he was specifically referring to wide receiver. Marshawn Lynch is a TD maker at running back and to say that “[t]here is no way they trade back with Richardson available” is just not true. If it were true, it would be impractical – what if they were to receive an exorbitant offer?
As I stated, I would love for them to take Richardson personally. He gives Seattle talent and roster flexibility at a position that Seattle values moreso than most other NFL teams.
As for, “I think they grab him in the first, take a QB in the 2nd/3rd and an DE/DT(3 tech) in 3rd/2nd”. I don’t think you can pigeonhole the team into a draft-pick-by-position method as you did. They need a QB, defensive line depth, a running back for sure, but they could use one, or all, of those picks on a BPA. There aren’t many teams that draft strictly by position (looking at you, Bengals). I also disagree that 3-technique is a position of need. Alan Branch played really well there; I do agree that they need depth there though.
I think the primary needs for Seattle are 1) QB, 2) DE/LB (pass-rush specifically, linebacker in general), 3a) DT depth, 3b) RB, and 4) WR depth (I’m of the position that you should be constantly churning that position). I wouldn’t be upset if they went LB/RB/WR instead of your RB/QB/DE-DT.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 18, 2012 6:36 PM PST up reply actions
I disagree with 3 tech not a need
That Branch played really well there. He had some moments but he was by no means a dominant force who got penetration and disrupted plays on a regular basis. If they see an upgrade and its BPA for them, I think they take it.
I really don’t believe any position is safe, I think this regime has shown that if they want a player and they are an upgrade they will get them even if it might not seem to be a need.
by Jazzercise! on Feb 20, 2012 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
As I said, I disagree that the 3 technique should be a priority.
Though, I can see where Aztecs, and you, are coming from.
I would argue that DT depth is very much a need, but not specifically the 3 technique. The Seahawks need pass-rush help; they could use quality pass-rushers at every position along the line – the 3 technique and LEO included. Though, as I see it, the ideal defensive tackle that Seattle could pick up would provide depth for Mebane at the 1 technique and have the mobility play outside in some run-defense formations, as opposed to taking over Branch’s job or just being depth for him.
I completely disagree with your analysis of Branch. He played exceptionally well at the 3 technique for a run stuffer and occasionally he disrupted the opposition’s passing game. PFF thought very highly of him.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 20, 2012 1:54 PM PST up reply actions
The 3-tech position doesn't need an exceptional run stuffer, it needs an exceptional pass rusher.
Branch was a big part of why Seattle struggled to get consistent pressure on quarterbacks. PFF even admits his pass rush was minimal:
After that list of great players at end, the tackle selection was much less inspiring. It’s not that they’re poor players, but they all come with a caveat… Branch is as good as it gets versus the run but gets little pressure
Seattle doesn’t need to draft a back up one tech, they already have good depth there with Mebane and Branch. Let them compete in training camp for the starting spot and rotate the other in while adding a real three tech to the roster.
Was that lack of pressure a result of the wait-and-see scheme though?
Maybe.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 20, 2012 10:31 PM PST up reply actions
He has never been known as an elite run defender either.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 21, 2012 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
He was drafted as a nose tackle
He’s always been a run first player.
by Nate Dogg on Feb 21, 2012 7:51 PM PST via Android app up reply actions
Alan Branch was tied for 21st in the NFL for DTs in sacks
out of 52 starting DTs thats top half,
Justin Smith is in this category even though he is a DE
Ray McDonald is also on this list, though he is also a DE
Israel Idonije is on the list even though he is a DE
Desmond Bryant is on the list even though he is a DE
Lets also cosider ther top DTs sack wise were 7.5
that puts Branch in the top 17 of 52 DTs in sacks. There just are no Warren Sapps out there, the 3-Tech hopes may just be a dream.
morfe the point is he isnt terrible
He is one of three Seahawks in the top 20 DTs in tackles,
He collapses the pocket
and you cant tell me you really think that Henry MeltonTommy Kelly or Geno Atkins are a massive improvement either.
What you want, be it pressure or sacks, isnt going to come from a 5th round selection. You need elite level talent to do what you are asking of a 3 tech. Beat a double team and consistently pressure a QB. There is a reason that there isnt more than one or two DTs who can accomplish that at any given time.
The last truely disruptive DT was Sapp. Richard Seymour has been consistent over a possibly hall of fame career.
Give me three examples of your prototypical 3 tech that plays DT and is currently in the NFL. You are gonna be hard pressed to find them.
Did we watch the same person
I would like to see video evidence of him collapsing the pocket. Nobody did that on a consistent basis for the Seahawks. Penetration was almost void on most downs, I wouldn’t be surprised if most of them were coverage sacks. I think you’re just not being realistic and nobody is asking them to beat a double team that is something the nose or 1 tech is suppose to take on but for gods sake beat 1 blocker. I feel like we watched a different D-Line play.
As a defensive player
You dont get to choose if you have a double team or not. More often than not Branch was doubled while mebane was one on one.
No he was not.
Mebane saw the majority of double teams.
by Nate Dogg on Feb 22, 2012 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It doesn't matter what he was drafted as.
Frankly, it doesn’t really matter what he did before this 2010. He was a role player in Arizona for the majority of his time there.
My point above was that he was never known as an elite defender against the run or pass, and he clearly was elite against the run this season. So, to base anything analytical on Branch from before 2010 is devoid of logic. “Branch has never been known as a pass rusher” doesn’t mean much since he’s still improving (or he showcased his peak this season, that would be a downer).
I’m not even sure why we’re debating this. You think the 3-technique is a clear area of need and I think it could use quality depth. We’re not that far apart. I do think Seattle would be better off with Branch/Mebane at the 1-tech/NT and a pass-rushing force at the 3, but I just don’t see that as anything close to a necessary move.
Branch was elite against the run and average to below average against the pass. I don’t mind him being at the 3 for a while.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 22, 2012 4:04 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Branch may not have been elite before but he was always a run stuffer.
Expecting him to develop into a pass rusher is asking him to do something he’s never been shown he can do. He didn’t have to become a fundamentally different player to be elite in run defense, he just had to improve his skill set.
I’m not going to even touch “So, to base anything analytical on Branch from before 2010 is devoid of logic.” Looking at a player’s history is not devoid of logic.
Wording was too absolute there, but I don't think it's fair to look at Branch's history when evaluating his play in 2011.
He was a different player. As per the mock draft pick, I was really just throwing an option out there that I haven’t seen associated with Seattle much. Poe should be a talented player. He could be one of the better NTs/1 techniques in the game.
Personally, I don’t think they could honestly justify taking Poe unless he was far and away the best player on their board. Mercilus or Perry would be my preferences at that point – and probably more likely selections – but I think it’s fair to say that the PCJS draft process hasn’t been completely revealed yet, and I wanted to go somewhere other than what I wanted. Taking a BPA selection at a position that isn’t an absolute need wouldn’t surprise me.
by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 23, 2012 3:34 AM PST up reply actions
And, to get back to your mock
you have Seattle taking a defensive tackle that more similar to Mebane and Branch than not, instead of someone like Fletcher Cox who has the potential to be a dominant pass rushing three tech. So that’s odd.
I agree on the Player your speaking of Nate Dogg
I disagree with spending a First rounder on that type of player. The chances of landing that type of player are slim to none with that pick. Im basing this off of DT drafted picks 10-30 since 2006 (i added Alan Branch just because), with sack numbers
2011
Nick Fairley(13th)- 1
Cory Liuget(18th)- 1
Phil Taylor(21st)- 4
Muhammad Wilkerson(30th)- 3
2010
Dan Williams(26th)- 0 (career sacks)
Jared Odrick (28th) 6
2009
Peria Jerry(24th)- 2
2008
Kentwan Balmer(28th)- 0
2007
Amobi Okoye(10th)- 15
Justin Harrell(16th)- 0
Alan Branch(33rd)- 7
2006
Haloti Ngata(11th)- 17
Brodrick Bunkley(14th)- 6
John McCargo(26th)- 2.5
So i mean from this analysis, it is very rare to get what your looking for from historys standpoint. Ngata is the only player that is a Franchise player of the group and Okoye’s Sack numbers dont really jump out at you.
I beleive this pick should be spent on a more wisely selection, and hope to develop a pass rushing threat from either DE position, or pass rushing OLB.
If this Trade Scenario were to play out though...
I would hope the Hawks coudl trade back into the 30’s and grab an extra 3rd. Once we get past the top 15 or so prospects, the talent level really dips into that 3rd-4th tier prospects.
If we were able to get Vinny Curry with a pick from 28-35, i would not be disapointed.
ALong with our pick at 43-44(not positive), we could still grab that DT that we could develop.
Brockers is discribed as a new Haynesworth or Seymour
If he is then thats the 3-tech type guy we need.
I get why people are changing to their real names, but most people know me as STUFR. In fact, if you called me by my given name at work, you would just confuse most people there. So I comfortably say yes, my name is STUFR.
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