2012 Mock Draft, Version 1.0

by dcrockett17 on Feb 7, 2012 1:35 PM PST

With the 2012 off-season now unofficially underway, I figured I'd post my first mock of the off-season. A thousand different people will do mocks a thousand different ways. My preference, especially pre-combine and free agency is to set up mock drafts that tend toward "best player available" approaches rather than sticking too closely to perceived team needs. This mock isn't insensitive to team needs, but it's certainly not finely tailored. In other words, this mock basically features what I think are the top 32 prospects available based on what I've read.

I have noted some places where I think teams may be open to trading, but do not incorporate trades. Each selection features the player I think is the best option (with some consideration of team needs) for the team at that spot.

As always comments and feedback welcome. With my work schedule I'll jump in and jump out of discussion throughout the week.

Mock after the jump.

Team	Player/Position	School	Comments
1. IND	Andrew Luck, QB	Stanford	Indy will issue the standard non-denial denials but this writing has been on the wall for quite some time. What may well determine the success of THIS version of the Colts is what they do AFTER this selection.
2. STL	Matt Kalil, OT	USC	This pick is a prime candidate for trade. Right now, Kalil is the consensus best non-QB, but I have never seen him listed above 300#. I have my concerns about a sub-300# blindside blocker.
3. MIN	Robert Griffin III, QB	Baylor	I think the Vikings will go best player available regardless of position, and Ponder will not deter them from RGIII if they think he is the guy.
4. CLE	Morris Claiborne, CB	LSU	CLE will be tempted to select Trent Richardson, but will opt instead to take the similarly or better-rated Claiborne. He can continue their transformation to an elite pass defense.
5. TB	Trent Richardson, RB	Alabama	Tampa desperately needs a homer run hitter at a skill position.
6. WAS	Justin Blackmon, WR	Ok. State	WAS is likely in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes until it is settled. Either way I don't think they reach for Ryan Tannehill. Blackmon is the last of the consensus elite prospects.
7. JAC	Devon Still, DT	Penn St.	Jacksonville needs WR help, but Gene Smith won't reach. If they can't trade down picking Still could make that defense even uglier.
8. CAR*	Quinton Coples, DE	UNC	This is a gamble CAR almost has to take. Even with a healthy Charles Johnson they couldn't create pressure. Whether through FA and/or the draft, CAR must find pass rush this off-season. Coples has flashed elite all-around ability, but questions about his motor persist.
9. MIA*	Kendall Wright, WR	Baylor	It's hard to know which way MIA will head before they settle their QB situation, most likely with a FA. Wright is at worst a mild reach in the top 10, and brings an element of speed they lack outside Reggie Bush.
10. BUF	Jonathan Martin, OT	Stanford	I suspect Buffalo will take their pick of the two remaining first round OT's.
11. KC*	Brock Osweiler, QB	Arizona St.	I expect Osweiler to work his way firmly into the first round discussion by early spring. He is a project, but he has elite upside. Add to that, the Chiefs have been clear about wanting Matt Cassell to compete, and may also be in the FA QB market.
12. SEA*	Courtney Upshaw, OLB	Alabama	Rob Staton at the inestimable Seahawks Draft Blog has just worn me down on Upshaw. He could give this heavy jumbo defense a sustainable long-term outlook if SEA can find more range at LB and somehow find a 3-tech.
13. ARI	Reilly Reiff, OT	Iowa	The Cards will be fortunate if Reiff or Martin falls this far. Either OT would help cure what ails them, regardless of who ends up at QB for them.
14. DAL	Michael Brockers, DT	LSU	For all the (justified) focus on Rob Ryan, the 'Boys have gotten long in the tooth--especially up front. I think Brockers profiles as a 5-tech, and is a live body who will create enough ruckus to free up pass rushers. (Now, don't be shocked if they select Janoris Jenkins, the CB.)
15. PHI	Luke Kuechly, LB	Boston Col.	I haven't seen much BC the past couple years, but the writeups make Kuechly sound like Jonathan Vilma--undersized tackling machine.
16. NYJ	Nick Perry, OLB	USC	The Jets are another Ryan-led defense starting to show some age. The Jets can work Perry in as a specialist early on and groom him to take over. He seems tailor-made for this scheme, at least on the surface.
17. CIN	Dre Kirkpatrick, CB	Alabama	Kirkpatrick is a big corner who excels in run support but struggles some in coverage. Cincy doesn't need an immediate starter but could stand to upgrade depth, and Kirkpatrick is as good a fit with Cincy as with any defense.
18. SD	David DeCastro, G	Stanford	With Kris Dielman having missed most of the season, and his future very much in doubt, San Diego is delighted to see DeCastro fall to them.
19. CHI	Janoris Jenkins, CB	N. Alabama	The former Florida Gator was kicked off the team after a second marijuana arrest in a four month span. The decision-making more than the weed has some teams afraid to risk selecting him early. He's also undersized. As a prospect he fits Lovie Smith's defense to a tee--speedy and physical with excellent instincts.
20. TEN	Mark Barron, SS	Alabama	TEN is desparate for pass rush help, but there isn't a bona fide 4-3 end available. Chris Hope is a FA and Barron could step in and start right away if needed.
21. CIN	Jerel Worthy, DT	Mich. St.	Worthy has big upside as a 3-tech. He is disruptive though inconsistent, which is common with DTs.
22. CLE	Michael Adams, OT	Oh. State	I am really tempted to pull the trigger on Malcolm Floyd. Really tempted. Holmgren will be too. Instead, I have CLE drafting an immediate or eventual replacement for Tony Pashos at RT.
23. DET	Alfonzo Dennard, CB	Nebraska	Dennard is a physical corner who can play some bump and run. He seems to fit Detroit's defense.
24. PIT	Dontari Poe, NT	Memphis	Pittsburgh started to show some wear and age on defense that was probably exacerbated by their transformation to an uptempo offense. Poe has the build to be a compliment and eventual successor to the great Casey Hampton.
25. DEN	Dwayne Allen, TE	Clemson	The perfect security blanket for a developing QB is a tight end who can play in the running game or the passing game. Allen is a traditional TE that can make some WOW plays in the passing game, though he lacks blazing speed.
26. HOU	Malcolm Floyd, WR	Notre Dame	Floyd compares favorably to Vincent Jackson. He has an excellent size speed ratio. Off-field incidents involving alcohol will lead to some teams to question his maturity.
27. NE	Peter Konz, C	Wisconsin	Current starter, Dan Koppen is an UFA and may not be in the plans for a long-term deal. Konz has all-pro potential, and would provide NE with power from the interior line they currently lack.
28. GB	Melvin Ingram, OLB	S. Carolina	Ingram's versatility is intriguing. His limited production over the course of his college career is troublesome. He's a bit of a tweener, but athletic and studious. He anchors well against the run and has the makings of a good pass rush arsenal. He's an unfinished product who could be a player.
29. BAL	Cordy Glenn, G/T	Georgia	Glenn is a physically enormous prospect, but very athletic. He played guard and both tackle positions at Georgia.
30. SF	Mohamed Sanu, WR	Rutgers	Sanu is redundant with Crabtree to some extent, but the 49ers need depth.
31. NE	Whitney Mercilus, DE	Illinois	With Andre Carter getting along in years, NE is in a position to gamble on something of a one-year wonder with a nice arsenal of pass rush moves but lacks elite tools.
32. NYG	Fletcher Cox, DT	Miss. State	Cox is a classic three technique with a nice first step who could stand to go to a team where he can rotate in early in his career while he puts on a little weight.

*Order for Panthers/Dolphins and Chiefs/Seahawks to be determined by coin flip at the NFL Combine in March

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Comments

You know I've been way, way out of the college loop when I started going "who?" after the top 10.

by Benne on Feb 7, 2012 2:00 PM PST reply actions

You're just getting old

And you know what they say about that? It beats the hell out of the alternative. ;)

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Feb 7, 2012 2:38 PM PST up reply actions

When I was young I used to think old people sucked.

Now I know for sure.

70% of space is covered by dark matter, the rest by ET.

by hazbro24 on Feb 7, 2012 2:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I would gladly beat the shit out of 18-year-old me.

And 18-year-old me would deserve it.

by Benne on Feb 7, 2012 2:52 PM PST up reply actions

But in seriousness, this is the least college football I've watched in my life.

My knowledge is literally limited to just the Huskies and whomever ESPN is hyping up.

by Benne on Feb 7, 2012 2:56 PM PST up reply actions

I gurantee the Vikings will trade down from 3 if Kalil is not there.

"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff

by EequalsMc2 on Feb 7, 2012 2:56 PM PST reply actions

Brock Osweiler @ 11

lol wot?

Learn JiuJitsu.
Semper Fi'

by RolloTomasi on Feb 7, 2012 7:14 PM PST reply actions

Is that really so far fetched?

If the draft were today, just on tape alone he’s almost certainly a 2nd round pick. Kid has ENORMOUS upside because of his tools and athleticism (he was a legit DI basketball recruit and has very good feet). He just hasn’t played a lot of football. (He also had the misfortune of playing for a burned out Dennis Erickson. Mid-career Erickson might have been great for Osweiler.)

A good combine performance, and a couple good workouts could easily move him into the first round discussion. Such is the inflation for QBs. Once he gets there, really it’s a beauty’s-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder situation. You’re not paying a big premium for him with the 11th pick.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Feb 8, 2012 6:59 AM PST up reply actions

I guess I'm just jaded

I’ve watched him throughout his college career and was never impressed.

Learn JiuJitsu.
Semper Fi'

by RolloTomasi on Feb 8, 2012 9:05 AM PST up reply actions

He's a pretty big wildcard.

I’d be surprised if he goes 11 or 12, but it wouldn’t be pants on head crazy for all the reasons the Rockett pointed out. He’s had some really good games, some really bad games and a lot of in between.

by Nate Dogg on Feb 8, 2012 11:05 AM PST up reply actions

It could happen, maaaaybe

But would the Chiefs be the team to do it?

And if a team did surprise by making a Christian Ponder type pick, it would probably be for Ryan Tannehill. Not sure either will get picked early though. Also- its worth noting that the Ponder pick probably looks worse now than it did then, given Minny’s interest in the ultra-hyped RG3. The Ponder selection is quickly heading from headscratcher to fiasco. I doubt we’ll see any teams itching to play copy cat on that one.

by Kip Earlywine on Feb 10, 2012 3:51 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah if anything it's gonna be Ryan Tannehill

lot of buzz around him.

Learn JiuJitsu.
Semper Fi'
Cortez Kennedy is in the Hall Of Fame!!!!!!!! WE DID IT!

by RolloTomasi on Feb 10, 2012 4:00 PM PST up reply actions

My question about adding to Seattle's front seven...

…is Brockers.

My understanding is that he can play both the 3-tech and 5-tech, has wild upside, and is still young and raw. As I read through all the discussion, my understanding is that the only way Seattle’s pass rush improves in base is by adding a pass-rushing 3-tech (assuming the LEO is one end, and Bryant, or a Bryant-like player at the other). The idea is not to hamper run-defense in a base defense, but also add more pass-rushing pressure.

Yes, faster LBs are on the menu, and a replacement for the aging Raheem Brock on passing downs (but the latter is a rotational player and not something you want to draft in round 1). And any LBs picked at 11/12 is really high.

Brockers strikes me as one of those medium risk/high reward kind of players. Or am I reading the scouting wrong?

ONLY IN SEATTLE:
By swaggering could I never thrive,
For the rain, it raineth every day.

by Hawksince77 on Feb 8, 2012 2:35 PM PST reply actions

I don't understand Minnesota taking RG3

He played up to expectations.

by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 9, 2012 3:49 AM PST reply actions

Well, heres a rundown

RG3’s hype is getting ridiculous. Ask a lot of NFL sources, and they will tell you that RG3 is QB 1b to Luck’s 1a, and don’t forget that Andrew “best QB prospect since Peyton Manning” Luck is pretty hyped himself. I don’t agree with that assessment of RG3, but the recent success of Vick/Newton as well as the recent improved success rate of spread option QBs are inflating Griffin’s value an almost unbelievable amount.

In the eyes of many, passing on RG3 is no different than passing on Andrew Luck. Ponder may have been drafted 12th overall, but everyone knows that his true talent is far below that, even Minnesota knows it. They know very well that if they pass on RG3 and Ponder busts, it will likely cost them their jobs. Would you want to bet your job on Ponder playing well enough to make fans forget about RG3? I wouldn’t. The sense around the league is that Minnesota wouldn’t either.

by Kip Earlywine on Feb 10, 2012 4:01 AM PST up reply actions

I agree with you completely on RG3's stock being waaaay up there right now.

However, I feel that the fans/media are completely over-hyping him if they think Minnesota would take him 3rd.

Personally: I saw one of his game’s earlier this year and I felt the guy was going to be a star in the NFL. I was one of the first people on his bandwagon. I then watched Griffin go from being a QB with question marks to being almost equal to Barkley in terms of draft stock. I would have no issue with Minnesota taking RG3, from a drafting perspective.

Realistically: I just cannot understand why Minnesota would want to take Griffin when Ponder played up to expectations last year. It’s reasonable to assume he would improve upon that. I disagree with you saying “everyone knows that his true talent is far below that, even Minnesota”. He played okay for a rookie. I think Minnesota believed in his talent when they drafted him and they haven’t been proven wrong – yet. When’s the last time a team drafted a QB in the first round two years in a row anyway? As for:

the recent success of Vick/Newton as well as the recent improved success rate of spread option QBs are inflating Griffin’s value an almost unbelievable amount.

There’s no way that Vick/Newton are the primary driving force behind RG3’s stock. I don’t even understand that statement. Newton’s build is enormous, so I would throw that comparison away right there, and Vick was – before he was draft – and is considered a way better runner than RG3. Vick/Newton/Griffin are all unique QBs.

They know very well that if they pass on RG3 and Ponder busts, it will likely cost them their jobs. Would you want to bet your job on Ponder playing well enough to make fans forget about RG3?

That’s just conjecture. If they take RG3, they may as well lose their jobs after a year or two of expected-level play from him.

(By “He played up to expectations.”, in my original comment, I meant Ponder.)

by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 10, 2012 4:52 AM PST up reply actions

~

Vick/Newton/Griffin are all unique QBs in the sense that every QB is unique, but all three play the same kind of point guard role in an offense. If you could compare Griffin to a previous NFL QB, those would be the two closest examples. Maybe Steve Young or Randall Cunningham if you want to go further back.

There is a sense behind closed doors in the league that Minnesota feels that Griffin is an opportunity that is strongly worth considering. To me, that news was surprising initially but not upon reflection. Then again, they were dumb enough to draft Ponder that high and trade for McNabb. Maybe they will be dumb enough to pass on RG3 as well.

If Ponder struggles in years 2 and 3, the FO won’t hear the end of their decision to pass on Griffin. Fans won’t respond well to the defense that it was worth passing because of the team’s huge over-investment in Ponder coupled with a meager 70 passer rating the year before.

Seahawks Draft Blog

by Kip Earlywine on Feb 12, 2012 4:05 AM PST up reply actions

I just don't see it.

We’ll find out soon enough.

by GasolineSnuggie on Feb 13, 2012 12:53 AM PST up reply actions

I see Steve McNair personally

I know he put up tremendous numbers but I dont see him as a gunslinger, like Favre or Newton.

That being said, QBs are always drafted way higher than the big board. He should be taken second overall, if he isnt then someone isnt on the phone enough to make a deal and move down.

by Oliudyen on Feb 14, 2012 3:01 PM PST up reply actions