Could Dre Kirkpatrick be the key to our 2012 draft?
It's not what you think. I'm not suggesting that Schneider et al. take a CB with the 1st rounder given talent already in-house at that position. But a team might be willing to trade up to us at 11 or 12 to grab Kirkpatrick and allow us an extra pick in the bargain. Here's what I would consider to be a plausible scenario:
Cincinnati Bengals trade their 1st round pick #17 overall, their 2nd round pick #53 overall, and their 3rd round pick #84 overall, in exchange for our 1st round pick (#11/#12) and our 3rd round pick (#75#76) overall.
Why would Seattle do this? Acquire an extra high-value pick (late 2nd round) by sliding down 5 or 6 spots in the first round and sliding down 8 spots in the 3rd round. A late second-round pick might be a decent spot to take a guy like Doug Martin (RB, Boise St.) or maybe a DL prospect like Derek Wolfe (DT, Cincinnati).
What does Seattle risk by doing this? Possibly missing out on one of the top-shelf DEs/DTs...e.g., Ingram, Coples, Still. Not sure who they might take at #17 if all three of those guys are gone. Maybe Nick Perry?
Why would Cinci do this? Kirkpatrick. Cinci has needs in its secondary. Leon Hall is coming off achilles tendon surgery so they can't have much certainty that he'll be returning to full strength. They also have another 1st rounder at #21 overall, so trading up doesn't deplete them in the same way it might for other teams.
What does Cinci risk by not trading up? Not getting one of the top two CBs. Assume that Claiborne is gone somewhere in the top 6 or 7 picks. That basically leaves Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins as other 1st-round-pegged CBs. In addition, with Dallas sitting there at #14 overall and also clearly with needs in its secondary, can they afford to take the risk that Kirkpatrick slips past them? Maybe their desire to trade up hinges on how much more they like Kirkpatrick over Jenkins.
What sayeth the trade value chart? If we pick at #11, then the combined value of what we give up is 1,250 + 215 = 1,465 points. The return picks are valued at 950 + 370 + 170 = 1,490 points. If however we're picking 12th overall, then what we give up is 1,200 + 210 = 1,410, which is possibly enough of a gap that Cinci demands an extra pick to compensate. So maybe the key to our draft is a combination of Kirkpatrick and the coin toss.
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There could be a hundred similar moves in play with such a thin draft.
Or there could be none. Who knows? Someone deep could want to take a shot on Coples, Still, Richardson (if he falls), a 2nd tier QB. I think we’re in a good spot to trade down from, but in no way do I think we can predict who/how/for whom ir will happen.
by Stay Off the Flowers on Feb 9, 2012 1:17 PM PST reply actions 4 recs

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