Now that we're settling into the doldrums of the off-season, let's take a peek back at the draft competition Danny and I conducted. I compiled and ranked the scores for each team's champion. With DavidinBellingham leading the charge for Field Gulls, we had the fourth highest scoring champion league wide. That's awfully impressive considering we had far and away the most surprising first round pick of any team.
While fans from other teams complained about how the Colts and Redskins had an unfair advantage, Field Gulls competed like hell and outscored both the Colts and the Redskins. Pete would be proud. I've decided at this very moment that next year I'll inquire whether Mr. Competition himself would care to contribute a prize for our top competitor. Hopefully he'll have something for David as well.
There's still room for improvement though. We just missed out on an A grade and we let the freakin Bills win it all instead of us. I suppose that they were due to win something. But I'll be damned if we're not next in line. Let's kick all their asses in 2013, despite having the 32nd pick. The crown jewel is the five year average. If we can win that, despite having the 32nd pick four years in a row, then the legend of the 12th Man grows that much more.
Last week, Hawksince77 did us a solid and compiled everyone's Seahawk score. He also edged out J.L. White (tie breaker) for second place with 38 points, just one point shy of David. Props to both of them for putting up such strong scores. Props to HI Hawk 808 as well for predicting the most picks. Hawksince77 did some analysis on how Field Gulls performed as a whole. I'd like to expand on that analysis.
Per List Hit Rate: 95.8%
46 out of our 48 lists predicted at least one pick for the Hawks. That's an excellent number. If we can maintain that consistency then we're doing something right.
Total Average Score per List: 16.90
This will be an interesting number to monitor over the years. As we learn more about the draft methods of a Pete Carroll front office, our ability to predict the picks should correlate. Right? Let's make sure that happens.
Bruce Irvin Predictability: 5.40 (average score per list)*, 50% (hit rate)
Bobby Wagner Predictability: 2.12, 25%
Russell Wilson Predictability: 5.04, 50%
Robert Turbin Predictability: 4.27, 37.5%
Winston Guy Predictability: 0.06, 2.1% (Props to Hawks4372 for the late round prediction)
*The sum of these averages is 16.90.
We struck out on Jaye Howard (self fail), Korey Toomer, Jeremy Lane, J.R. Sweezy, and Greg Scruggs. Even though Bruce Irvin was a surprise pick at 15, he was still the the most predictable player we selected. Wilson and Turbin scored highly as well. Any other stats people would be interested in?
Onto our champion. David has won the right to represent the Hawks in the Winner's Mock Draft next off-season. For making Field Gulls proud, we should all give him the internet equivalent of a standing ovation. I'm dedicating any Rec's on this article to the Field Gulls 2012 Armchair GM Champion, DavidinBellingham. +1 to whatever the number is since I can't Rec my own article. I will show this courtesy to our champion every year. After the jump you'll find David's thoughts on his victory.
In February, after the Super Bowl, I withdrew to the dusty hills above Bellingham to get in shape. I hauled tractor engines with my bare hands. I hung from the barn rafters and did sit-ups while Danny Kelly beat my abdomen with a copy of Pro Football Weekly's 1983 Draft Guide.
Actually I spent a lot of February on Field Gulls. And March. And April. Who would the Seahawks draft? The payoff for pouring over endless YouTube clips at first seemed limited to personal satisfaction. Then in the final days before the draft I discovered the Armchair GM Competition. The competition added another dimension to my draft frenzy.
When Ben Harbaugh notified me that I won, I was astonished. I was personally happy with discerning three of the first four Seahawk picks correctly (listed in bold), but many of the other Armchair lists revealed similar acumen. Asked by Ben to describe my process of writing my list, I replied that the meticulous writing here at Field Gulls and at Seahawks Draft Blog were responsible for my success. "Fair enough," Ben wrote back, "but take a victory lap and share your thoughts."
1. Courtney Upshaw: I was convinced the Hawks were going defense in the first round, more specifically pass rusher. Upshaw was my favorite of the predicted first round pass rushers and also the consensus #1 guy on most lists. Round 1, choice 1.
2. Mychal Kendricks: another consensus pick. Round 2, choice 1.
3. Quinton Coples: I didn't like him, but he was certainly a possibility. Note that Melvin Ingram isn't on my list. I'm glad that we didn't pick either of them. Round 1, choice 2.
4. Bobby Wagner: my first unconventional pick. Bobby Wagner looked fluid, instinctive, tenacious, smart, and fast. He shed blocks and closed on ball carriers quickly. He looked like a three down player, strong against the run or the pass. His leadership and commitment were evident. I judged Kendricks and Wagner the best inside linebackers likely available after the first round. Sources tell me the stadium will play Flight Of The Valkyries every time Wagner makes a sensational play. Round 2, choice 2.
5. Shea McClellin: Round 1, choice 3.
6. Lavonte David: If the Hawks picked David then I could buy a jersey with my first name on the back. Win for me! That automatically became less likely, as I never win anything, except for this I guess. Round 2, choice 3.
7. Chris Polk: round 3, choice 1.
8. Bruce Irvin: I bet you didn't know Alex Smith used to deliver for Jimmy John's in high school. Irvin's tape is ridiculous. It's like watching a cheetah chase down gazelles. I wanted him more than any other defensive player in the draft, but of course had no idea if he was under consideration. That is likely for the best. If Pete and John had given any clue they liked Irvin then Field Gulls and Seahawks Draft Blog would have nailed his name to every mock draft in the country. I kind of did a double back flip when we selected him. Round 4, choice 1.
9. Donta Hightower: round 1, choice 4.
10. Cordy Glenn: I could imagine the Hawks trading back and passing on the first round pass rushers. Many asserted that choosing David DeCastro would finally exorcise the ghost of Hutchinson. Picking a guard such as DeCastro doesn't offer as much value as a tackle. Cordy Glenn looked consistent, is versatile, and played left tackle against top competition. Round 1, choice 5.
11. David DeCastro: this choice was a hedge. Round 1, choice 6.
12. Robert Turbin: my favorite running back after Chris Polk. Now here is a guy who could haul around some tractor engines. When the Hawks picked Turbin I relaxed, content that the front office had addressed all the crucial needs this off season. I anticipated that the Hawks were looking for a back similar to Marshawn, as opposed to a complimentary scat-back. Round 4, choice 2.
13. Michael Brockers: visited VMAC. Round 1, choice 7.
14. Miles Burris: when the Raiders picked him I wove a tapestry of epithets that still hangs out over Boundary Bay. Round 5, choice 1.
15. Robert Brooks: Round 5, choice 2.
16. George Iloka: Round 4, choice 3.
17. Ronnie Hillman: Round 4, choice 4.
18. Nigel Bradham: the linebacker selected in this vein was Korey Toomer. Late round choice.
19. Brock Osweiler: I missed on Russell Wilson. Wilson's tape shows promise, but I thought the Hawks might pick a different vertically challenged quarterback.
20. Nick Perry: round one or two.
Consider it luck or consider it solid strategy as you will, but I think this is the key insight; reading Field Gulls and Seahawks Draft Blog will give you a helluva lot more useful information than any of the nationally recognized "draft gurus." It's a rare gratification to win something among such knowledgeable and perceptive company. I look forward to next year and salute those of you who will boldly stride forth to unseat me. Raise a glass.
My glass is raised.