MARVIN GAYE Got To Give It Up (via Youtube)
This is how I image the scene looks down in Renton today. But the late, great Marvin Gaye raises a great question. Percy Harvin is costing the Seahawks a first round pick and seventh round pick this year (plus a mid-round pick next year). What are we giving up for Mr. Harvin and is it worth it?
What about this year?
Let's say for a minute that the Seahawks never made the trade and use their first round pick on a wide receiver. What production are we missing out on there? Well... I went and took all the first-round WRs from the last 7 years and averaged out their stats from their first year:
This is actually a little better than I was expecting... But I was originally going to do 10 years and that would have included the amazing stats of Troy Williamson and Mike Williams. But does anybody think that Percy Harvin doesn't beat these stats? Barring injury, I would be shocked if Percy doesn't exceed this in his first year as a Seahawk. In fact, Percy beat this his first year in the league with 60 recs, 790 yds and 6 tds. and this is not even including his production from running and returning.
The Seahawks are not giving up first year production from a rookie wide receiver.
But what about future production?
Wide receivers get better as the years go on, so I took those same receivers I averaged and averaged their first three years in the league:
That would equate to 46 receptions, 656 yards and 4 touchdowns a year. Does Percy Harvin give the Seahawks more production than this in his next three years? Probably. Anything can happen in the NFL, but Percy already averaged 72 recs, 875 yds and 5.6 tds in his first three years and was on his way to more last year before he got his ankle all hawked up.
The Seahawks probably won't give up wide receiver production for the next three years.
But what about the 7th round pick?
It is no secret that the Seahawks have been striking gold in their late round picks as of late. Here are all of John and Pete's 7th round picks:
Would you rather have Percy Harvin or a rookie wide receiver and one of these guys? Nothing against these guys, a lot of them are contributors and have played some big roles... but are they world-beaters or irreplaceable? No. No they are not. Besides, the roster has been filled so solidly over the last few years that it was going to be really hard for a late round pick to even make the roster. I'm expecting the front office to do some extra homework on the the unrestricted rookie free agents and we won't even notice the difference.
The Seahawks are not giving up much with the 7th round pick.
But what about the mid-round pick next year?
Jeez guy. Get off my sack and live in the now... although... now that you have me thinking about it, this is the area that I suppose would give me the most concern. The Seahawks have been lights out with a lot of their mid-round picks. But for every Richard Sherman, we have a Kris Durham.... so... no. I stand by my initial statement. Get off my sack.
There is a some chance that the Seahawks miss out on some all-pro production from next years mid-round pick but I'm not worried about it. I think it will just cause them to raise their game.
Let's tie it all back together for a nice little package
- I think this is a great trade. Percy Harvin (age 24) will be much better than any rookie wide receiver we draft this year and he has a high probability of being better than an receiver we draft in the next three years.
- Losing a seventh round pick is no big deal. It's like a cherry on top of your sundae; those disgusting urine soaked cherries.
- Losing a mid-round pick next year is kind of a big deal. But I will be surprised if the Seahawks don't trade Matt Flynn and get some of that back.